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Chapter Fifty-Six: Scandal and Conflict (1934-1937)
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Sedad Hakkim Bey became one of the first modern 'celebrities' in the Ottoman Empire in 1934

Even as the Ottoman Empire had enjoyed its period of cultural bliss and rapidly increasing standards of living in the early 1930s, the seeds for its later troubles had been being sewn. And yet as 1934 began, absolutely none of this was apparent to the world, and the Porte was continuing to bask in the success of its archaeological excavations in Ethiopia, Egypt, and Mesopotamia. Sedad Hakkim Bey, the leading archaeologist on the Tower of Babel excavation project, had achieved worldwide renown for his work, and with the Propaganda Ministry keen to cash in, Hakkim Bey soon became one of the first ‘celebrities’ in Ottoman history – with his weekly talks on Ottoman radio fascinating the nation, and the Ottoman press following him everywhere he went. Archaeology was all the rage in 1934, and it would take something dramatic to seize its mantle as the main news story. Of course, eventually that story would appear.

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Sedad Hakkim Bey begins his weekly radio show that further catapults him into his position of global fame

Whilst not apparent at the time, Grand Vizier Mustafa Kemal Pasha’s humbling in the 1930 election had caused two long-term effects which together culminated in a severe shock for the Sublime Porte, political upheaval in the Ottoman Empire, and an international incident with tragic consequences. The first, and the more immediately noticeable, was that Mustafa Kemal himself had turned to alcohol more than ever as a clutch to his low moods. He had always been fond of a drink – and perhaps always a bit too much so – but after the 1930 election this had become an almost nightly occurrence. For the most part this was hidden from public view, but he became somewhat notorious in Cabinet for it, and this only helped to further erode his political authority. While the political situation was calm, no one was willing to rock the boat over it. But when the storm came, the Grand Vizier was not in the shape to respond that he once had been.

And yet still as the campaigning season for the 1934 Ottoman election had got underway, there was no sign of what was to come. Yes, Kazim Pasha’s leadership had seen the conservative Osmanli Demokrat Firkasi restored to something of a fighting force instead of the political joke it had become after its 1930 horror show. And yes, socialist leader Mustafa Ismet Pasha’s leadership of the opposition had won him much respect whilst successfully bringing the question of land reform to the forefront of Ottoman politics – so much so that Deputy Vizier & Sosyal Demokrat Firkasi leader Rauf Bey had shown signs of backing it himself – But the ruling Hürriyet ve Itilâf Firkasi were nonetheless expected to coast to another comfortable electoral victory in 1934. Why rock the boat during a period of such prosperity? Until, of course, the Census Affair broke.

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Talaat Pasha, friend and loyalist of Murat Pasha, triggered national notoriety during the Census Affair

Murat Pasha had once been the chosen heir of former Grand Vizier Pertev Pasha. A military general with an exemplary reputation forged in the Third Great War, Pertev had chosen him to lead the Hürriyet ve Itilâf Firkasi when he planned to stand down. Murat’s lacklustre oratory performances and dull personality failed to connect with the public however, and poor results in the 1921 elections saw Mustafa Kemal Pasha snatch his chance at the top job. Murat had thereafter been relegated to a series of minor Cabinet roles and then the parliamentary backbenches, and was due to retire from politics entirely at the age of 68 in 1934. He had however always maintained a loyal cadre within the ruling party, and when Mustafa Kemal Pasha had been briefly threatened as leader after the 1930 election, Murat had been one of the suggested candidates who could have stepped in to steady the ship. This had eventually fizzled out as Mustafa Kemal clung on, but Murat's restoration to public attention did see his allies take over a number of minor committee positions – including the ministry in charge of the Ottoman Census.

Whether Murat himself was involved in what followed is a matter of historical debate, but in May 1934 an investigation by a leading Ottoman newspaper uncovered a trail of corruption relating to census data being misused to buy votes with government funds. The reports quickly led to the arrest of Talaat Pasha, the Murat loyalist in charge of the Census office, but further damaging reports linking ruling liberal party members to smuggling operations – including historical artefacts from the booming archaeological industry – led to a series of extremely damaging headlines throughout May and June of 1934. Other arrests followed, and the result was that Deputy Vizier Rauf Bey publicly broke with Mustafa Kemal Pasha and took his Sosyal Demokrat Firkasi out of the ruling coalition, decrying the Hürriyet ve Itilâf Firkasi as corrupt and publicly stating that the Grand Vizier was too drunk to notice what was going on in his own party.

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The Census Affair is brought to national attention, severely damaging the reputation of the ruling party (May 12th 1934)

Had Mustafa Kemal Pasha not lost so much authority after 1930, perhaps the stain of corruption would never have seeped into his party. Equally, had Murat Pasha kept a closer eye on his associates, maybe he too could have prevented what occurred. But with both of the biggest names in the party being torn to shreds by the media in the month leading up to the 1934 election, the results were as predictable as they were devastating for the liberals. The Hürriyet ve Itilâf Firkasi had been the leading party of government for 34 straight years since the 1900 election that had broken the previous conservative dominance of Ottoman politics. For many younger people, the Freedom and Accord Party was the only ruling party they had ever known, and the modern democracy in the Ottoman Empire was intrinsically tied to them. But the Census Affair had destroyed trust in them, and when the country went to the polls, the ruling party was on the brink of disaster.

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The results of the 1934 Ottoman election (July 1st 1934)

As it turned out, that residual respect kept them from total annihilation on Election Day. The Hürriyet ve Itilâf Firkasi still won a respectable 216 seats from the available 850; a loss of just 42, and enough to make them the joint second largest party. However, as the months after the election wore on and further allegations continued to come to light, this would actually prove the fact that the election came so soon after the Census Affair breaking was an advantage for them. And by the time the further allegations broke, the liberals were out of the Sublime Porte.

The big winners of the election were Rauf Bey’s Sosyal Demokrat Firkasi. His decision to turn on his coalition partners and seize control of the narrative against them stole the thunder from the opposition socialists and saw the Social Liberals make a significant gain of 27 seats for a total of 264; leaving them clearly the largest party. The socialist Osmanli Ahali Firkasi (Ottoman People’s Party) on the other hand had a disappointing election and gained just 3 seats for 216; equal second with the liberals. This disappointment was however tempered by the sweetness of a return to government: Rauf Bey’s burning of bridges with the liberals had made the socialists the only plausible coalition partner. Mustafa Ismet Pasha was able to take the Deputy Vizier position, and the socialists also found themselves in control of the Interior Ministry, the Housing Ministry, and both the Air and the Transport briefs. Rauf Bey also agreed to many of Mustafa Ismet’s land reform proposals as part of the coalition negotiations; and an agreement was soon signed between the two parties to form a government.

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Sosyal Demokrat Firkasi leader Rauf Bey becomes the first social liberal Grand Vizier (July 3rd 1934)

Elsewhere in the opposition, the conservative Osmanli Demokrat Firkasi made significant gains of 33 seats for a total of 46: Their best result since the 1921 election, though still a long way short of their former dominance. They also failed to take the mantle of the largest party of the right from Young Turk affiliated Ittihat ve Terakki Cemiyeti, who gained 9 seats for a total of 60 – another new record. The other big losers however were the libertarian Ahrar Firkasi (Freedom Party); which suffered greatly following the retirement of their popular and well-known leader Nurettin Ferruh Bey and failed to find a replacement with any recognition whatsoever. Their return of just 5 seats was a loss of 53 and saw them sink from fourth largest party in the Ottoman parliament down to the smallest of all represented parties.

The Islamist Teceddüt Firkasi (Renewal Party) also gained a single seat in the vilayet of Sudd in the Sudan (a full voting vilayet for the first time) for a total of 16, but the other big story was the long-feared (or long-awaited, depending your view) electoral breakthrough of the communist Ihtilalci Avam Firkasi (Revolutionary Commoners Party), who gained 22 seats for a total of 27: Their best ever results by some margin. The fact that the communists and the fascists had both scored record results was met with dismay by many moderates, but given the damaging allegations that had come to light it also surprised very few. The quick formation of the new government ensured both radical fringes were kept very much in the opposition; but the communist breakthrough also ensured that the new government would face challenging opposition from both flanks – and indeed much stronger opposition than was provided by the Hürriyet ve Itilâf Firkasi, which fell into a period of infighting and factional civil war following the resignation of Mustafa Kemal Pasha.

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Mustafa Kemal Pasha's thirteen year tenure as Grand Vizier steered the Porte through a period of great change

Mustafa Kemal had been the longest serving Grand Vizier for centuries; and his achievements in abolishing the Millet System had reshaped the very foundations of the Ottoman state; but his premiership had ended under a cloud, and his legacy was damaged as a result – whilst still highly respected, he would not achieve the universal acclaim of his predecessor Pertev Pasha – something he may have managed to match had he stood down after the 1930 election. Mustafa Kemal was also in poor health by 1934, and while he retired to write his memoirs, he would not live to see the end of the decade – though he would live long enough to see the great era of peace he had presided over end, and the unleashing of the dogs of war once more.

As it was, newly promoted Grand Vizier Rauf Bey had fully intended to steer a foreign policy course which was uncontroversial and followed the same course as Mustafa Kemal had. The alliance with the Kingdom of France would remain the bedrock of Ottoman foreign policy; and while the alliance with China had undergone some challenges following the death of President Duan Qirui and his replacement by Chiang Kai-Shek of the Kuomintang Faction, it too remained strong. The socialists were heavily opposed to foreign adventuring in general, and it was anticipated that the new government would be focused entirely on domestic matters. Land reform was of course high on the agenda; although the most immediate legislation saw a tightening of Health and Safety regulations and a further expansion of the National Arts Endowment. But as 1935 approached, Mustafa Ismet Pasha’s land reform proposals were finally greenlit by Rauf Bey, and the program thus began.

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Health and Safety Regulations are tightened swiftly after the new government takes power (July 23rd 1934)

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The National Arts Endowment receives further expansion (July 22nd 1935)

The Land Reform program of Mustafa Ismet Pasha saw the Ottoman state take up huge swathes of private land; and by the end of 1935 almost 80% of land in the Empire was directly owned by the state. The great landowners of the aristocracy found their lands increasingly taken over by the nationalisations; though the Interior Ministry generally allowed former landowners to remain as tenants on low rents, and they resisted the policies of collectivisation touted by the communists. The massive expansion of state land most notably helped usher in a period of huge housing expansion; as families who were previously crowded together with multiple generations under the same roof were now able to move into their own properties under the social housing policy. Though they did not own the properties, the rents required by the state were far below the market average and helped ensure that the social housing was occupied not only by the working class but also by large portions of the middle classes too; avoiding the stigma that the previous forms of Social Housing had often carried. Economically, the new government took a much more interventionist approach than the laissez-faire approach touted by the liberals; with key military industries often receiving subsidies when going through difficult spells, and state funds also being used to expand fledgling industries with perceived high potential.

Unfortunately for the new government; the period of peace that had followed the end of the Third Great War was soon to end. While the Porte had fought in some minor engagements since then in Iraq and Africa; the Ottoman Empire had not been involved in a major conflict with another Great Power for almost 20 years prior to the Bushire Incident. The Sublime Porte had been pleased to see other social liberal parties win the elections in both Russia and Persia in recent years, and hopes of a general détente with the old enemies were shared by all three governments. So when the Ottoman military steamer the SS Istanbul exploded in Bushire Harbour in Persia on June 7th 1936, the Sublime Porte was initially slow to react while a military investigation took place.

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The explosion and sinking of the SS Istanbul in Bushire Harbour triggers an international incident (June 7th 1936)

The Ottoman press, on the other hand, was quick to denounce the Persian government as having sabotaged the vessel in an act of blatant aggression. By the time the military investigation had concluded that an overheated boiler was most likely to blame, the damage was already done. The Ottoman populace; stirred up first by the press and then even more so by the Young Turks, was soon baying for blood. The conservatives and the liberals also capitalised on the crisis by pouring doubt on the official explanation, and by July the Sublime Porte was forced to bow to the opposition and issue a demand to the Persian government to allow an Ottoman investigation team with authority to interview any Persian citizen it deemed necessary entrance into Persia. The Persian government, backed by the Russians, refused to accept this insult to their sovereignty, and anti-Ottoman articles soon began to appear in the Persian and Russian presses too. As 1936 wore on, numerous border incidents occurred on both the Ottoman-Russian borders and on the Ottoman-Persian border too.

Whilst the Sublime Porte had initially sought a peaceful escape from the conflict, the ruling Sosyal Demokrat Firkasi were increasingly incensed by the Persian responses and provocations – so much so that by the start of 1937 the Grand Vizier himself was now in favour of war. The only thing preventing him was the opposition of his socialist coalition partners; but following a campaign of factory sabotage across the Empire that the factory owners had initially blamed upon militant socialist trade unionists, the socialists began to suspect that the Russians may be behind these, too. Worried that this would only drive workers who were blamed unfairly into the arms of the communists, the socialists began to signal that they too would accept a war. Rauf Bey signalled the Ottoman high command to begin preparations for war, and following further border incidents in the spring of 1937 he issued an ultimatum to the Persian government: Either they accepted the Ottoman investigation proposal within 24 hours, or the Sublime Porte would have no choice but to declare war. The 24 hour deadline came and passed without reply. War was upon us once again.

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The Persian refusal of the Ottoman ultimatum forces the Sublime Porte to declare war (May 14th 1937)
 
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Socialists coming into power and communists rising while liberals and libertarians failing would be the only way that could've made me happy to see Kemal fail. He probably wouldn't have had a drinking problem if he didn't have to win the war of independence but I can still live with this alternative universe. It's also been fitting that decades of peace was under the watch of a man who said "peace at home, peace in the world". Now I hope this war with the Russo-Persian alliance goes well. The CB is Place in the Sun, what colonial holding Persia has for this? What is the wargoal? If this turns out to be a big war instead of a quick skirmish, we should look to dismantle the Russian Empire.
 
Persia has colonies to seize? At any rate, a very juicy target.
Socialists coming into power and communists rising while liberals and libertarians failing would be the only way that could've made me happy to see Kemal fail. He probably wouldn't have had a drinking problem if he didn't have to win the war of independence but I can still live with this alternative universe. It's also been fitting that decades of peace was under the watch of a man who said "peace at home, peace in the world". Now I hope this war with the Russo-Persian alliance goes well. The CB is Place in the Sun, what colonial holding Persia has for this? What is the wargoal? If this turns out to be a big war instead of a quick skirmish, we should look to dismantle the Russian Empire.
When Iraq first got independence during the Khuzestan Crisis a while ago, Persia kept the one province in it that didn't have a significant Mashriqi/Bedouin population and for some it was turned into a colony. I may or may not have used the year between the event giving me that CB and actually declaring war to justify some additional CB's because going to war with Russia just to gain such a tiny slither of land would have been rather silly though.

I'm not sure Kemal could be regarded as a failure here: He certainly implemented his secularisation agenda, "completed" the process of Ottamanism, and laicite is as strong as ever. Sure, in the end he lost power, and the corruption scandal leaves a bad taste in the mouth (as well as seeing the liberals lose power), but if you look back at his period in power as a whole it was still a very successful period for the Empire. Maybe not as successful as Pertev Pasha, but Pertev presided over the phoenix arising from the ashes, and taking over at such a low point gave him a lot further to climb. Kemal's thirteen years of peace, prosperity, and pretty much entirely vanquishing the right (even with them making a bit of a recovery in the latest election, they still got less than 15% of the vote) was no mean feat.

The initial CB I used was the Place in the Sun CB, because it had such a low warscore cost that if the war goes badly I can peace out without losing huge amounts of prestige. But I have some more generated, and pretty much 0 infamy, so there's certainly some leeway for expanding the scope if all goes well :)
 
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How much of your territory is colonies and how much is states?
The vast majority is states now, aside from some holdouts in Arabia, the high population Ethiopian states, and other scattered parts of Africa

Good to see that one final war will happen. Do you think you'll manage to dismantle Russia?
Russia doesn't have a GP ally at the time of declaration, so it won't become a Great War and thus it's unlikely (needs at least two GP's on each side for that) - But if they get an ally mid-war and call them in, anything is possible!

One last big push against the ancient foe!
That's the spirit!
 
On such things are the fate of nations decided. A scandal here, an accident there - the beating of a butterfly's wing.
 
This could quickly spiral into world war IV, who are the participants on each side right now?
I'll take my guess and say Austria-Hungary definitely will join for the other side. China and France will probably honor our call for war. Who are the remaining 3 great powers? Italy, UK and Spain? All 3 can join the other side, or stay neutral. Maybe France has good relations with one of them to drag them in the war on our side? USA is no longer a GP and last time it tried to wage a war from across the ocean, it didn't go very well. We have our spherelings Belgium, South Africa, Brazil as far as I remember but the rest I don't remember.
 
Going to be interesting to see whether Russia has recovered from their embarrassing failures earlier in the century or whether they're still behind...
Aye, Russia has spent the last two decades since the Third Great War in complete isolation, so it's quite hard to gauge how they will perform.

On such things are the fate of nations decided. A scandal here, an accident there - the beating of a butterfly's wing.
Very well put :)

This could quickly spiral into world war IV, who are the participants on each side right now?

I'll take my guess and say Austria-Hungary definitely will join for the other side. China and France will probably honor our call for war. Who are the remaining 3 great powers? Italy, UK and Spain? All 3 can join the other side, or stay neutral. Maybe France has good relations with one of them to drag them in the war on our side? USA is no longer a GP and last time it tried to wage a war from across the ocean, it didn't go very well. We have our spherelings Belgium, South Africa, Brazil as far as I remember but the rest I don't remember.

As Russia lacks GP allies, it's *unlikely* to spiral, but if they gain one during the war then anything is possible. At the time of declaration, the Ottoman Empire is allied to France, China, and Japan; and our spherelings in the Empire of Brazil, Belgium, South Africa, the Sultanate of Atjeh, the Dominican Republic, and of course our ever-loyal vassals in Romania.

Russia, on the other hand, is only allied to Persia and a couple of Indian countries (Khalistan - which is a Fascist Sikh Empire - and Sindh). Russia seems to have been spending recent years taking advantage of the British retreat from India to restart the Great Game and try to make big inroads in the heavily divided subcontinent.

The other GP's are Austria-Hungary (which is allied to France still, so hopefully will not suddenly turn against us), the UK (not allied to any GP), Germany (previously had an alliance with Russia which quickly broke, now also not allied to another GP), and the USA (still clinging to GP status, but also lacking allies). Italy is #9 and allied to Germany, and Spain is a lower SP but also allied to Germany, giving Germany the largest diplomatic network outside the Ottoman-France-China-Japan alliance (and Britain's ton of spherelings).
 
Belgium being in the ottoman sphere is so strange, in universe, it must provide constant irritation, outrage and bemusement from their neighbours.
 
About time we had another big war. Hopefully all goes well for you. The odds going in are looking pretty good, but Russia is a nation of surprises.
 
Catching up with this now! :)

I can't say I'll ever like Kemal (either the real one or the version in your history) but his departure marks a milestone in Ottoman history.
 
In all those years in the OT forum I’d never realised you were a WritAAR Riot. And an excellent one too!

I’ve just finished reading through the whole AAR over the past few weeks, and I’ve really loved it.

Your updates for the First Great War were really exceptional (although I kind of wish that defeat had led to a significant loss of territory and make turmoil :p). And I’m always a sucker for the lengthy exploration of electoral politics ;). Although there is something about the Ottoman Empire becoming a massive, diverse, democratic and secular state that seems so unsettling :p.

Now time for one last big war!
 
An update!

So 2020 turned out to be a very difficult year all-round, and the various effects of the pandemic put a lot of stress on my personal life. I actually had the next chapter mostly written for several months but wasn't happy with the depth of it, but stress turned into writer's block and my initial reaction of taking a break for a few weeks soon became a few months as the world rather fell to chaos. Over the past few weeks I've felt the motivation coming back though, and I'm intending to get a new chapter out in the next few days, and indeed if all goes to plan I hope to now see through it to the end in the upcoming weeks.

So, should people not have forgotten about this and still be interesting in the ultimate fate for the Sublime Porte: Chapters are a-coming :D
 
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