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258 pages? Yeah, sounds about right. I want to see Churchill's rise and fall (well, one of them, the man was in a never ending political rollercoaster) again, and watch the Italian war, the only action we've gotten so far (and a properly old-fashioned imperialist war it was too. No wonder everyone, including the readers, loved it so much!). I also want to remind myself why tractors, lawnmowers and postal planes were such big deals. And, you know, the build up to WW2 which El Pip is definitely defiantly going to do one day. Right?
 
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Eventually! But now that we've taken away his usual top-of-page billing for an update it will take another five months until we've hit it!
 
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Eventually! But now that we've taken away his usual top-of-page billing for an update it will take another five months until we've hit it!

I wouldn't worry too much about it. I've been poaching his top page for years...
 
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So you're the reason we've had to wait so long???

Goddamit!!!!!

Yup. And I keep text walling too. It seems I let out all my terrible forum habits on this aar so the rest of the site is spared. Most disturbing to realise this though:eek:
 
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I suppose if you did then it would turn into an encyclopedia for a universe that doesn't exist. I mean...such things do occur elsewhere but we have to have some context for why the start date was chosen if not for the war. If we never got to it, everyone looks like s bit of a nitwit for ever being afraid of Hitler's sort, given what a wet blanket the fascists have been so far.
It's an idea I saw in a long dead unfinished HOI2 AAR which had the amazing concept; "So you can expect a fair amount of detail about gun calibres and nautical miles, but also to see entire theatres of warfare summed up in a less than respectful sentence."

If I could just get entire areas summed up in single dismissive sentences we'd make faster progress. Thus far I have failed miserably at doing so.

All this of course is if he even survives his war with France.

Pretty big if, all things considered.
I could try and pretend that there is an 'if' around whether there is a war between Germany and France (and others). But I don't think anyone would believe me, because at this point such a war is incredibly overdetermined.

HOI AARs don't like the US for the most part. They either go communist or mental or weird or get back into the Empire again.
You have to do something to the US or it gets a bit dull, most writers recognise this.

No, because they never even really tried to get it in the first place, and they've already lost that fight already by this point in the timeline because they've expelled every scientist who could help them do it. And even if they had the bomb, by the time they made it, tested it and tried to use it, they wouldn't have the planes or fuel to drop them. Unless the Russians were literally banging down Berlin, in which case they'd probably nuke their own capital just because.
I take it you are not impressed with the Reich Postal Ministries nuclear programme then?

I always imagined it as a test to weed out the uncommitted.
This is also true.
DYAEiOu.gif


What is the US of A, going to do this Timeline? Not much I suspect. Not unless something truly spectacularly out of left field occurs. Like the Kingfish coming to power and going full "It Can't Happen Here!" or the nation going mad and deciding that Communism is the only way to protect the American Dream. Is the Kingfish dead? I know he was assassinated in '35, but that's also our departure point (at least from a narrative standpoint) so, maybe?
Huey Long is alive and well in Butterfly. OTL he was shot by Carl Weiss, so I had President Al Smith shot by Charles Black. Because it seemed a good idea at the time (early 2007). Many thing seemed a good idea back then.

What are they going to do? Well, I would first say that I and a few others have spent many walls of text discussing this before and haven't really gotten anywhere. Aside from:

They have to recover from the Depression.
They have to figure out a way round Imperial Preference whilst still being isolationist.
They either stay isolationist or become a little bit interactive, perhaps because of Japan's continued aggression in China or the afore-mentioned Imperial Preference.
They have already began isolating Japan from their fuel market, but that may or may not continue depending on internal politics.
As you say domestic concerns utterly dominate, even getting around Imperial Preference is only important because of domestic industrial concerns.

That said President Landon has got them 'morally' involved in Spain and that is going to have continuing consequences. There are also a few other events that will poke the US out of it's self-absorption.

From the people who named one of the deadliest and most terrifying weapons of the 20th century after a water container I expect nothing less.
Tube Alloys name was fairly random chance, picked purely because it sounded plausible but was meaningless. A name change is easy to justify on those grounds, indeed a different name is highly likely, but I do wonder if changing it becomes a change for the sake of it, one that will just confuse the reader without adding any verisimilitude.

The fact I over-think these things does, in part, explain the majestic pace of Butterfly.

Following one of @El Pip 's recent reduxes, I started re-reading this AAR from the beginning. I was up to the cited chapter 61 on page 34 when a thought struck me.

As a teenager I read the complete works of Shakespeare, Plato, assorted poets, all available volumes of the Cambridge Ancient History, and pretty much anything else I could lay my hands on - there being sod all else to do with spare time in the 1970s outback. By the time you finish such classics, they're so brilliant and it's taken so long (years) you can just about start again from the beginning with a fresh mind and appetite (not something I could say of my sister's choices: Mills and Boon).

Thus El Pip's modern classic indelibly associates itself in my mind with those of his older though still fashionable predecessors...:)
This is high praise indeed and I thank you for it.

I've done it a few times since I first started reading the forums. It's practically a summer ritual for me at this point.
I am impressed and honoured. I am delighted this work stands up to repeated re-reading and that my time spend on the Redux chapters was not (entirely) wasted.
IndeedSir.gif


Ditto for me as well. In fact, I'm tempted to start another re-read now. Maybe I'll be back up to the present before the next update drops.
Possibly. Depends how fast you read.

258 pages? Yeah, sounds about right. I want to see Churchill's rise and fall (well, one of them, the man was in a never ending political rollercoaster) again, and watch the Italian war, the only action we've gotten so far (and a properly old-fashioned imperialist war it was too. No wonder everyone, including the readers, loved it so much!). I also want to remind myself why tractors, lawnmowers and postal planes were such big deals. And, you know, the build up to WW2 which El Pip is definitely defiantly going to do one day. Right?
There is a war coming. A proper shooting war with tanks and bombers and so forth. However it will be substantially different from WW2 for many reasons, not least of which is that it would have been a waste of everyone's time to spend this long building up to just a 'standard' WW2 conflict.

Eventually! But now that we've taken away his usual top-of-page billing for an update it will take another five months until we've hit it!
Truth.

I wouldn't worry too much about it. I've been poaching his top page for years...
So you're the reason we've had to wait so long???

Goddamit!!!!!
Your back! Hello again @caffran , wonderful to see you and to see your analytical skills remain top notch. All the delays are indeed entirely TBCs fault.
DYAEiOu.gif
 
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El Pip Voting Opportunity
As the next chapter inches towards completion, it's on the last couple of paragraphs and polishing at this point, my thoughts begin to turn to what next. Looking at my plan many things are due for the Spring/Summer of 1937 so I have options as to which I write up. What better way to use my old mild interactive licence (approved by Mr Capitalist) than for a quick reader vote.

As this is something important we will be going for standard non-Florida voting rules, so you only get one vote each only. The Voter Colonel will personally burn any excess votes. And possibly any excess voters, he can get a bit over-excited while purifying the ballot boxes. Your choices;

a) The elections of island nations, featuring Japan and Ireland
ii) Carrier design and theory in the post-Abyssinian War world
3) Tanks. Specifically armoured units and theory of the rest of the Empire.

I was going to include "A South American conflict rooted in 18th Century Spain's inability to properly draw maps." for old times sake, but I'm fairly sure most readers would be happy for South America to go to sleep for the rest of the AAR. Maybe waking up briefly for the 1938 World Cup, but then going back to sleep.

Because I'm optimistic about this next update starting soon, lets say voting ends at 23:59 on the 15th July, which is this Sunday. Because this is normal voting rules I'll be generous about time zones, so if it's still Sunday where you are when you vote it'll count. Unless you are using the Julian Calendar, in which case it probably won't. You should also consider not using the Julian Calendar.
 
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I would particularly enjoy the option of "ii) Carrier design and theory in the post-Abyssinian War world", but should that option be struck, then clearly--and in keeping with the best traditions of the El Pip'ian world--the vote should go to "3) Tanks. Specifically armoured units and the theory of the rest of the Empire."

Which, I must confess, sounds like another thirty chapters worth of material... Armored Units alone would be worth at least three, but the Theory of the Rest of the Empire part is intriguing and should be explored.
 
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I take it you are not impressed with the Reich Postal Ministries nuclear programme then?

Not really. The Manhattan Project by many accounts was a scientifc and engineering wet dream. No restrictions on budget, resources, time or people. Everyone who could help was there and talking to each other. And they were literally designing the doomsday device. Many of them were quite plain afterwards that they got really sucked into the whole thing and only after the bomb dropped acrually realised the reality of what they had done.

Contrastingly, the Nazi project sounds like hell. Not least because if you were geniunly qualified for the job, you might get thrown into a concentration camp.

That said President Landon has got them 'morally' involved in Spain and that is going to have continuing consequences. There are also a few other events that will poke the US out of it's self-absorption.

As I recall, that moral involvement led to US firms (stop me if you've heard this before) accepting tons of bad credit from a group of people who didn't have the money nor any real chance of victory. It's a little sad they began to emerge from the Depression and immediatly began doing this speculation stuff again.

But yeah, there's a foreign issue that's going to impact domestically. Hard.

Tube Alloys name was fairly random chance, picked purely because it sounded plausible but was meaningless. A name change is easy to justify on those grounds, indeed a different name is highly likely, but I do wonder if changing it becomes a change for the sake of it, one that will just confuse the reader without adding any verisimilitude.

The fact I over-think these things does, in part, explain the majestic pace of Butterfly.

Well i don't think renaming it is a good idea. Given British naming terms at the time, it's either going to sound vsurdly over rhe top (Invincible, Indefatigable etc) or bland anyway.

I just had a thought that you could tounge in cheek refer to it as 'the Oliver Cromwell'.

Your back! Hello again @caffran , wonderful to see you and to see your analytical skills remain top notch. All the delays are indeed entirely TBCs fault.
DYAEiOu.gif

I am indeed known for being that influential. Especially for the 9 years of delays that happened before I joined the forum.

Which, I must confess, sounds like another thirty chapters worth of material... Armored Units alone would be worth at least three, but the Theory of the Rest of the Empire part is intriguing and should be explored.

I suspect this nay be a Pippy (Pippet?) trap to indeed get another 30 chapters (or the next two years) off by talking about the entire commonwealth tank collection.

I'll vote for Ireland because God knows, no one else ever does. Also Japan's gov might be interesting because the naval faction or more anti-soviet faction might end up with more power here just to further complicate the world order.
 
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I'll vote for Ireland because God knows, no one else ever does. Also Japan's gov might be interesting because the naval faction or more anti-soviet faction might end up with more power here just to further complicate the world order.

I'd also vote for Ireland and Japan. Maybe with a spice of Carrier erotica.

As i am quite interested at what kind of Anti-Comintern pact might be cooking under El Pip's crazy world of Automobile development AAR here.
 
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I'd also vote for Ireland and Japan. Maybe with a spice of Carrier erotica.

As i am quite interested at what kind of Anti-Comintern pact might be cooking under El Pip's crazy world of Automobile development AAR here.

I'm not sure if germany has the credibility to make one, and italy is a busted power that can't afford to sign it (hopefully they'll be becoming democratic again at some point before the war starts. The less mussolini, the better).
 
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...
I take it you are not impressed with the Reich Postal Ministries nuclear programme then?
...
And about time too! Just before I gave in to my angst and demanded some postal nuke porn.

Forget about suitcase nukes: postal nukes are all the go. Relying as they do on a team of highly trained postmen biking the components deep into enemy territory before assembling them and finally doing what postmen do best: deliver.**

**borrowing from the 1960s Beyond the Fringe - launching the careers of Peter Cook, Dudley Moore, Alan Bennett, and Jonathan Miller - revue sketch praising British nuclear policy, including the Sea-Slug second-strike deterrent, "...relying as it does on a team of highly trained runners carrying it deep into enemy territory". Another high point was the benefits of the four minute warning of nuclear attack: "Some people claim that four minutes isn't a very long time. But let me remind those doubters that some people in this great country of ours can run a mile in four minutes."
 
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There is no other choice than naval pron...

Tanks are overrated as weapons of war...they are the battleships of land combat, visually impressive, but much less combat effective in practice.

Carriers, on the other hand, are much MORE combat effective than most people believe.

An emphatic vote for (ii)!

...and a small sigh for the lack of a South American war...that might have aroused the interest of the United States...
 
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A vote for II though I am intrigued by III

"A South American conflict rooted in 18th Century Spain's inability to properly draw maps."

Blast, I'd been looking forward to that for ages.
 
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Come to think of it, have the Europeans ever been able to properly draw maps? South America, Africa, and the Middle East all spring to mind...
 
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I was also quite the partisan of Ecuador, as I recall, but I suppose that Inevitable Defeat has already given me a bit of a South American pick-me-up recently. Living with an engineer and dating a math major pretty much ticks off the boxes on my tech quota, let's see how the elections go in the Emerald Isle.

Also, having just seen Jackson Browne in concert (still pretty damn good at 71), I recommend that you adopt his approach of letting people yell what they want at you and then playing whatever you feel like.
 
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Come to think of it, have the Europeans ever been able to properly draw maps? South America, Africa, and the Middle East all spring to mind...

I think it stems from European borders being so pretty and natural for the most part, no matter what you end up doing. Taking over half or the entire continent even makes a pretty map and border, so long as there aren't random enclaves everywhere.

The rest of the world in comparison looks vile. Just look at North America. Beautiful coastlines, ruined by borders.

Also, having just seen Jackson Browne in concert (still pretty damn good at 71)

71?

I mean, makes sense when I think about it but still...next you'll be saying Neil Gaiman is nearly 60.
 
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Excuse me, he's only 70. Still, very spry for someone who was a superstar when my parents were in high school (well, *star*, really, he was never that big). His birth will happen inside the timeframe of this AAR though, if it does indeed continue through to 1948. It can be covered in about a century and a half from now, at the present rate.
 
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I would particularly enjoy the option of "ii) Carrier design and theory in the post-Abyssinian War world", but should that option be struck, then clearly--and in keeping with the best traditions of the El Pip'ian world--the vote should go to "3) Tanks. Specifically armoured units and the theory of the rest of the Empire."

Which, I must confess, sounds like another thirty chapters worth of material... Armored Units alone would be worth at least three, but the Theory of the Rest of the Empire part is intriguing and should be explored.
Counting that as carrier vote.

You have rumbled my cunning scheme. For I intended to use the review of the various Dominions armoured units as a way to look at how the various member states see the Empire working. Who decides what 'Imperial Defence' requires and who supplies what? For example if Australia wants to build heavy bombers for domestic industrial reason but the defence of the Malay Barrier needs Marines then how does that get sorted? (There were never any Royal Australian Marines or similar). It could indeed be several chapters and still not go into the depth required. It would also feature a lot of discussion about tanks, heavy industrial plant and related items.

As I recall, that moral involvement led to US firms (stop me if you've heard this before) accepting tons of bad credit from a group of people who didn't have the money nor any real chance of victory. It's a little sad they began to emerge from the Depression and immediatly began doing this speculation stuff again.

But yeah, there's a foreign issue that's going to impact domestically. Hard.
Doing such speculation is, in part, how they intend to pull themselves out of the Depression. Fulfilling all the contracts is a shot in the arm for the economy, maybe not decisive given the relative size of the two countries, but it all helps. As long as the Republican's credit is deemed good and the banks accept it, lots of jobs will be created and things will ripple out from there. Of course it could all be built on sand and it is exactly the kind of thing Senator Nye was worried about, but it's not gone wrong yet so most of Washington has a vested interest in looking the other way.

I am indeed known for being that influential. Especially for the 9 years of delays that happened before I joined the forum.
To quote @Davout - "People assume that AAR's are a strict progression of cause to effect... but actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, the Butterfly Effect is more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly.... timey-wimey.... stuff."

I'll vote for Ireland because God knows, no one else ever does. Also Japan's gov might be interesting because the naval faction or more anti-soviet faction might end up with more power here just to further complicate the world order.
Ireland is a good choice and as you say Japan is also interesting. Not completely sure who I weld the two together beyond chronologically (they both have elections at about the same time), but I'll think of something.

I'd also vote for Ireland and Japan. Maybe with a spice of Carrier erotica.

As i am quite interested at what kind of Anti-Comintern pact might be cooking under El Pip's crazy world of Automobile development AAR here.
A fine vote. The anti-comintern pact however is not happening in it's OTL form.

I'm not sure if germany has the credibility to make one, and italy is a busted power that can't afford to sign it (hopefully they'll be becoming democratic again at some point before the war starts. The less mussolini, the better).
Italy isn't quite a busted power. Certainly the dreams of Empire are dead and navally things don't look good. But as a regional power things are still possible, the Alpini and the various mountains troops are still respected (because they spent the war sitting on the Alps glaring at people. And were genuinely very good).

Moreover Italy did go to war (and lost, but war still happened) whereas Hitler had his bluff called over the Rhineland. In a strange way that probably gives Mussolini more credibility; Hitler now has a reputation for folding where as if Mussolini threatens something he just might do it, even if it is a bad idea.

And about time too! Just before I gave in to my angst and demanded some postal nuke porn.

Forget about suitcase nukes: postal nukes are all the go. Relying as they do on a team of highly trained postmen biking the components deep into enemy territory before assembling them and finally doing what postmen do best: deliver.
Excellent Beyond the Fringe reference, such things are always welcome here. :)

There is no other choice than naval pron...

Tanks are overrated as weapons of war...they are the battleships of land combat, visually impressive, but much less combat effective in practice.

Carriers, on the other hand, are much MORE combat effective than most people believe.

An emphatic vote for (ii)!

...and a small sigh for the lack of a South American war...that might have aroused the interest of the United States...
There will be things to arouse US interest at some point, it's too big a place to just ignore for the rest of the story. ;)

A vote for II though I am intrigued by III

Blast, I'd been looking forward to that for ages.
Vote noted and it appears I will have to bring back the War of Terrible Spanish Cartography.

Come to think of it, have the Europeans ever been able to properly draw maps? South America, Africa, and the Middle East all spring to mind...
Most European maps were drawn well, as in it was clear how big the country was, where the border was and so on. The border itself may have been in a terrible location, or the country itself a bad idea, and this may have prompted decades of problem and conflict. But as maps to tell you were things were they worked well.

Spanish maps also caused decades of problems and conflict, but worse didn't even tell you were the borders were with any accuracy or reliability. They were therefore much worse, as they weren't even much good as maps.

I was also quite the partisan of Ecuador, as I recall, but I suppose that Inevitable Defeat has already given me a bit of a South American pick-me-up recently. Living with an engineer and dating a math major pretty much ticks off the boxes on my tech quota, let's see how the elections go in the Emerald Isle.

Also, having just seen Jackson Browne in concert (still pretty damn good at 71), I recommend that you adopt his approach of letting people yell what they want at you and then playing whatever you feel like.
AN election vote, an excellent choice.

I've adopted the approach that has served generations of engineers well - never offer someone a choice unless you don't care which response they pick. I was going to write about those three things anyway and I think they are all interesting in different ways, so I don't mind which wins - it only decides which I write first.

Excuse me, he's only 70. Still, very spry for someone who was a superstar when my parents were in high school (well, *star*, really, he was never that big). His birth will happen inside the timeframe of this AAR though, if it does indeed continue through to 1948. It can be covered in about a century and a half from now, at the present rate.
Century and a half till 1948. I admire your optimism about future rates of progress.
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Current Voting Tally
a) The elections of island nations, featuring Japan and Ireland - 3 Votes
ii) Carrier design and theory in the post-Abyssinian War world - 3 Votes
3) Tanks. Specifically armoured units and theory of the rest of the Empire. - 0 Votes

While many have expressed an interest in tanks this has been as second preference. Alas this is first past the post and so Tanks are lingering on zero votes, a shocking state of affairs. Elections and Carriers tied for the lead, which is a good metaphor for the fundamental tension in the story well - Techporn vs Plot.
 
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For I intended to use the review of the various Dominions armoured units as a way to look at how the various member states see the Empire working. Who decides what 'Imperial Defence' requires and who supplies what?

Still trying to save the empire through federation?

It is an interesting question, even if potentially doomed to failure, as to what the dominions are going to do. Because let's be honest, since they're in the Empire, they get the benefits of the Royal Navy, which means they'd can focus on the two other branches far more than the British can. Saying that, having a navy of their own implies more power and indeodnance, and for Australia at least, seems a practical requirement unless they decide to pool resources with New Zealand and The British Far East to ensure there'll be a British fleet built for the Pacific and just for that.

as you say Japan is also interesting.

I think so, especially as they've been placed in a very interesting and unusual situation, because Germany AND the US are both backing down from international engagement at the moment...which leaves them in a bit of a bind. Does this mean a chastened Germany is going to turn around and attack Russia first? In which case, perhaps this means the army already in china can be sent into Siberia for oil? Or are they going to do nothing, in which case Japan is basically ally-less, but has the glimmer of hope that the US being isolationist means they'll start selling oil to the empire again. Then they can secure China for themsevles and figure out what they're going to do after that.

Essentially, you've been given the ideal grounds for butterflies, or keeping things similar for once. Anything seems reasonable given how tense and fragile Japan's situation is, even though they are a powerful paper tiger at worst.

Elections and Carriers tied for the lead, which is a good metaphor for the fundamental tension in the story well - Techporn vs Plot.

Well it is the latter half of 2019 now. Time to be getting along, at least a little bit?
 
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