Home Trending Latest threads New posts Developer diaries

how does pop ideology gets calculated?

Jump to latest Follow Reply
  • We have updated our Community Code of Conduct. Please read through the new rules for the forum that are an integral part of Paradox Interactive’s User Agreement.
Victoria 2 17560 After Action Reports (AAR)
Zergrage

Zergrage

Sergeant
6 Badges
Oct 20, 2008
50
0
  • Cities in Motion
  • Cities in Motion 2
  • Crusader Kings II
  • Victoria: Revolutions
  • Victoria 2
  • 500k Club
Ok.... so I wanted to figure how pop's ideology is determined.

At first I looked at each pop's txt files so I guess this factor thing is where I should look at. And I assume those are the base factors so if there aren't any variations farmer should have about 13.7% of all ideologies except conservative, liberal, reactionary, which has something other than factor = 1 and should be calculated by getting divided by the total sum of the factors(e.g. for farmers base_socialism(1) / total_sum(7.25) == 13.7)

so.... how does other variables affect the base factor? asking because I first thought multiplying all the factors may be the answer... but no did some manual calculation and the percentage didn't make sense.
 
They take time to change. I forgot what variable controls it though.
 
I think they are multiplications, but you should do some testing to confirm.
Paradox used them as multiplications in vanilla.
 
ok.... so... test 1:

VGLbdGw.png


Code: 
test subject:
Flemish soldier pop in Bruges, Belgium, July 1, 1861. A house divided campaign

ideology:
conservative: 53%
liberal: 19%
socialist: 14%
reactionary: 10%
anarcho-liberal: 1%

HKcr4zR.png
VNQiwpq.png


at first I tried calculating by adding the multiplications like this:


Code: 
anarco = 1
communism = 1
conservative = 1
fascist = 1
liberal = 1.1
reactionary = 1.1
socialist = 1

# liberal
sum_lib = liberal
sum_lib += (liberal * 1.1)
sum_lib += (liberal * 1.1)

# socialist
sum_socialist = socialist
sum_socialist += (socialist * 2)

# etc......

the result.....

sum_reactionary: 25.8025%
sum_fascist: 0.0%
sum_conservative: 33.3333%
sum_socialist: 18.5185%
sum_lib: 21.7284%
sum_anarco: 0.6173%
sum_communism: 0.0%
total: 100.0%

well.... that didn't go well eh.

one thing I found funny is the fact the ideology percentage shown is 95 in total. decimals appear on pop chart but on individual pop it doesn't.
 
Those are chances though, arent they? If they are chances, it doesnt mean that the chance number will be equal the actual number, but only similar as the time goes by.
 
I tested some different calculations based on your example and none could replicate the numbers.
Most interesting is that Socialists with 1 base and 2 modifier have 14% while Anarcho-Liberal with 1 base and no modifiers have 1%.
I'm inclined to believe the modifiers have an exponential effect due to this.
Also the numbers add up to 97% instead of 95%.

Edit: I should note that the order in which ideologies are defined in the ideologies.txt file has a large influence on the POPs.
 
Last edited:
General WVPM said:
I tested some different calculations based on your example and none could replicate the numbers.
Most interesting is that Socialists with 1 base and 2 modifier have 14% while Anarcho-Liberal with 1 base and no modifiers have 1%.
I'm inclined to believe the modifiers have an exponential effect due to this.
Also the numbers add up to 97% instead of 95%.
Click to expand...

Sometimes it adds to 95, sometimes to 97, 98 and i already saw 99 too.

So, again, those numbers seems to be just the chance, and chance can mean something but also can mean absolutely nothing, specially if its a "new" small pop.

i have a 10 craftsman pop with +1240% modifier to conservative and +10% modifier to liberal (both base 1) and the same pop is 67% liberal and 31% conservative...
 
After doing some 'perfect world'* tests, I conclude that it works like this:

Conservative: 1,2 (base) * 6 (modifier) = 7,2
Reactionary: 1 (base) * 6 (modifier) = 6
Liberal: 1 (base) * 3 (modifier) * 3 (modifier) = 9
Total = 7,2+6+9 = 22,2

Conservative: 7,2/22,2 ≈ 32,4%
Reactionary: 6/22,2 ≈ 27,0%
Liberal: 9/22,2 ≈ 40,5%

I can only guess as to why the actual ingame results seem to differ from this method:
  • Rounding errors
  • Bugs (with large numbers of modifiers)
  • Disabled ideologies (tests showed this is not the case)
  • Conditions that can be partially fulfilled
*I tested this with modded slaves in 1836 Dutch Guyana.
 
Guedes said:
Those are chances though, arent they? If they are chances, it doesnt mean that the chance number will be equal the actual number, but only similar as the time goes by.
Click to expand...

um.... what chance? didnt quite understood. or is there some hidden variable??



General WVPM said:
After doing some 'perfect world'* tests, I conclude that it works like this:

Conservative: 1,2 (base) * 6 (modifier) = 7,2
Reactionary: 1 (base) * 6 (modifier) = 6
Liberal: 1 (base) * 3 (modifier) * 3 (modifier) = 9
Total = 7,2+6+9 = 22,2

Conservative: 7,2/22,2 ≈ 32,4%
Reactionary: 6/22,2 ≈ 27,0%
Liberal: 9/22,2 ≈ 40,5%

I can only guess as to why the actual ingame results seem to differ from this method:
  • Rounding errors
  • Bugs (with large numbers of modifiers)
  • Disabled ideologies (tests showed this is not the case)
  • Conditions that can be partially fulfilled
*I tested this with modded slaves in 1836 Dutch Guyana.
Click to expand...

thanks for looking into it.


kNzvBnL.png


this is the pop chart of the same pop I tested earlier. looks like this one got decimals so I guess ideology % not being accurate is rounding errors. and yeah 97% not 95 how did I miss that lol

but where's this X * (modifier) you showed coming from? the number part being multiplied with modifier I mean.

I guess that's total sum of the modifiers...?? I'm still lost...


and I thought slaves have fixed 25/75 conservative/liberal ideology?? even if it's modded they shouldn't have factors at all.... or did you mean you added some factors for the slaves hmm
 
Last edited:
Zergrage said:
um.... what chance? didnt quite understood. or is there some hidden variable??
Click to expand...

Do you know what is the definition of chance is?

A chance is something that will probably happen and not something that will precisely happen. As the time passes/repetition of the event happen, the chance of this specific event to happen will increase.

A pop with 70% chance of being conservative will be exactly 70% conservative? No. It means that it will tend to be 70% conservative along time, because if it has lower than 70% ideology, as the times goes by, more and more people of the pop will become conservative, but nothing prevents is of being 0% conservative, specially if it promoted/demoted recently from a pop type that was 0% conservative to begin with (see the example that i gave the last posts).

On another words; those percentages are the chance that the pop has TO BECOME liberal/conservative/socialist/etc and not the precise percentage that they are liberal/conservative/socialist/etc, however as the times passes if you have, say, a very high chance of conservatives, than the pop will slowly but surely converge to being more conservative.

Or, at least, thats how i see it. If it were precise values, it wouldnt say CHANCE to begin with....

You are expecting that those chance values to be exactly the ideology values through some mathematical equation. I dont think thats how the mechanic works in the first place. Its the same mechanic of promotions/demotions, if you have a 20% promotion chance of soldiers to officers (like you screen shows) that doesnt mean that exactly 20% of those soldiers will become officers.
 
Guedes said:
A chance is something that will probably happen and not something that will precisely happen. As the time passes/repetition of the event happen, the chance of this specific event to happen will increase.
Click to expand...

oh.... yeah I get it now. kinda like ai_will_do factor in CK2.

while I didn't completely expect to be exactly the same, but least expected to be close (or gradually lean to) the equation and hence I asked this question since i was having a bit of problem figuring out how it calculates.
 
Zergrage said:
oh.... yeah I get it now. kinda like ai_will_do factor in CK2.

while I didn't completely expect to be exactly the same, but least expected to be close (or gradually lean to) the equation and hence I asked this question since i was having a bit of problem figuring out how it calculates.
Click to expand...

Exactly. The thing is, those bonus change all the time depending how you play and as they change the trend will also change. However, as a rule of thumb i would say "older" and bigger pops will have more approximate real numbers to chances than newer, small ones. Btw, i think the calculation is exactly how you made on the OP.
 
It's not chance based, you can recreate the conditions and get the same results.
I used modded slaves with modifiers.
 
so.... all factors multiplied by each factors?

e.g. if there's two 1.1 active modifiers with 1.2 base: 1.2 * 1.1 * 1.1 = 1.452

well time for me to go to work guess I'll try and evaluate this myself again after work :S
 
I did another test and at the start of the game, POPs will have their ideology calculated as if they had 100% needs fullfillment.

Edit: militancy and consciousness conditions do properly function at the start of the game.
Edit2: Only the life needs and everyday needs are counted as 100% fulfilled. Luxury needs are seen as 0%.
 
Last edited:
ok.... so.... did some extra calculations and concluded it's all multiplying the factors.

however at the start for any reason(or maybe vic2 dev guys thought it'll be "historically correct", idk) the general ideology of the POP and the "calculated ideology" of the POP doesn't really match at all. it's always conservatives being the majority.

but gradually it lean towards the calculated ideology very slowly.
e.g. a capitalist pop in london in 1861 with 48% conservative dropped to 44% in 2 years, while calculated conservative ideology stayed at 15-20% all the time.

and random events affecting the ideology of the pop also affects the overall points.

so for now my best guess is:

(base) * (modifier) * (event factors and current ideo variable points or whatever, and maybe added instead of multiplied? - this is my wild guess)
​
looks like there's not much point digging more at this point, since I have no clue where I can find this extra variations.

thank you everyone for looking into this.

I'll add more if I get to figure the extra one by chance or if there's someone eager to find out please do and share.
 
Last edited:
My simple tests ruled out any bias.
However, as stated before pops have 100% needs (only life and everyday luxuxry at 0%) fulfilled before the start of the game and vanilla modifiers make pops with needs fulfilled conservative.
As the game goes on, their needs will no longer be 100% fulfilled and thus they become less conservative. As I stated in my first post, this is a slow process.

Edit: On a sidenote, using groups has no effect whatsoever here.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom
Back