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Am I right in my observation that there is some kind of naval distance multiplier working in the background, increasing the chances of one of your ships sinking the further away you move it from your coast?
No, but attrition levels are higher in non-coastal sea zones. And the game may treat your ships as "fractional" during the time they are at sea, which means by the time you get well out into the ocean, you might already be down to 2.7 ships or something.