Speaking of military districts, attrition and the ability to bring numbers to bear.
The Logistic Situation
(Croatia in yellow for convenience)
Here you see the provinces with 1 btx marked in black and 2 btx marked in grey. These are the so called "worthless" provinces, sand and snowy wasteland with little gold or troops and much attrition (tho combine a sufficient number and you get something). When discussing military districts one can not only look at straight numbers within an area, but must also look at the specific provinces wherein it exists.
Astute readers will note some nations power unified in a evenly spread core with medium to rich provs (Persia/France/Andalus) These nations are far stronger than their numbers suggest, and are almost impregnable to attack from anything but concerted overwhelming assault by their direct neighbors. They need not much more than reasonably competent diplomacy and decent stability to keep safe. All have chosen alliance with a local power to keep safe, France's alliance Bavaria and Andalus with Egypt assuring stability in those areas have allowed growth by diplomacy while controversy Persias alliance with Byzantion has dragged it into many conflicts with little to show for it. Expect these nations to survive intact or grow by the conversion.
Other nations are somewhat disjointed but its cores are close together (Byzantium/Croatia), these nations have both had trouble gaining offensive victories against equal numbers and require outside support for growth. Both nations have been quite belligerent, Croats annexing the Polish player, KoM clicking the DoW button in Pavlovian fashion, and of course the never ending war over the City. Their future rests on competent diplomacy and choosing of sides, OY having gained the upper hand with his friendship with Russia. It remains to be seen if KoM is able to give up his backstabbing ways and make more permanent alliances.
Next we have the major continental powers (Bavaria, Italy), these nations have a concentrated central core of rich, rich provinces (Rhine river valley, Po river Valley) and a large realm of medium provs stretching from it. Militarily challenging their central core would require the same concerted assault as mentioned above. However their central position means they border most every player on the map, and there is always some nation willing to chop of a limb should a chance be given. With power comes fear, and preemptive wars are always popular. The position of these nations rests on their ability to manage human bb.
On to the Island players (Denmark and Egypt), these two nations while numerically powerful face a dreadful logistical situation. Their centers of power are separated by bodies of water, dreadful terrain and border multiple nations. Divided and spread as they are skillful play and excellent diplomacy is of the utmost importance, as one half of the realm is hard pressed to support the other.
Denmark has given proof time and again of skillful play, witness the conquest and annexation of our British player in the face of resistance by multiple players, the victorious 1v1 against Bavaria that netted Hamburg, or the Pearl Harbor that was the Crusader-Jerusalem-creating 3000 mile sneak attack on Alexandria by the Dread Viking-Emperor Waldemar.
Egypt meanwhile has had no luck at war against players, but has instead relied on sneaky tactics like vassal-sniping and diplomacy, witness the purchase of Tunis and Morocco, the theft of Mosul, Jerusalem and Antioch, or the creation of al-Andalus. Witness on the other hand the gangbang by half the map Egypt drew upon itself when it got greedy for islands, pride before fall indeed.
The future of these two nations lie in their ability to manage strategic friendships and balancing alliances, always having more friends than enemies.
Last we the soviet elephant in the room: Russia, having surprisingly few real "poor" areas its centers of power are separated by pure actual distance. Likened to an immovable object it has not changed much over the game, feeling it sufficient to maintain buffers around itself in the form of Finland, Croatia and formerly Poland. Croatia in particular has been grown to encompass its entire european border. It now seems content waiting for EUIII and plotting the downfall of those who have crossed it. Being the behemoth it is its downfall would require a simultaneous internal crisis and the effort of most the other players to bring it down. It is unlikely such an opportunity will show again lest its buffers suddenly feel a suicidal need to betray it.
Also there is Finland, it is not going anywhere unless one of the big boys want a bigger buffer.
I mean Denmark managed to ravage and pillage Alexandria!
Egypt was empty, Africa, Jerusalem, Syria was empty. I was outnumbered on every front. I could have demobed Egyptian troops and saved Alexandria, but then Persia would have broken through. It was akin to Captain America parachuting into Moscow with the 1st Army in august 1941 and telling Stalin nazi-capitalism is here, I didn't exactly have a contingency plan