Bug in math for event 22023?

[unmerged(68011)]

Hi,

Playing Revolutions vanilla.
After seeing a the event "22023, Political Assassination" fire quite a few times. i looked in text of the event and noted.

# 1% chance every four months, +0.5% per Anarchic bombthrower.

My experience wasnt exactly close to that so i did some tests.

1% times 3 = around 3% per year = once per 33 years approx, assuming no Anarchic bombthrower.
15 tests of 33 years with full crime fighting to avoid the Anarchic bombthrowers. I stopped alot to check for any during the tests and saw 3 for a very short time in all 15 sittings all together.
I expected to see approx. 1 per game giving lee way for the statistical uncertainty.
I on average saw 5.2 per 33 years, making me wonder if either the actual formular the game uses is maybe flawed or ofc the text. I dont see any actual formular other than the text so it could be hard coded, or i just cant find it.

Ofc this could just be statistical uncertainty at work, but with such a big difference im sceptical. Any one else noticed any thing?

Kind regards,

Rasmus

 

[unmerged(131989)]

I believe that the crime fighting value will also effect the probability of it firing, with maximum funding reducing the chance significantly (although still not completely). The notation may be wrong, also?? In addition, sometimes these things happen...

 

[unmerged(68011)]

I believe that the crime fighting value will also effect the probability of it firing, with maximum funding reducing the chance significantly (although still not completely). The notation may be wrong, also?? In addition, sometimes these things happen...

As to notation, my assumtion is that it is valid, else my argumentation is ofc on a false ground. That said im just following what the event says. The assumption gota be that its correct.

Yes things absolutly happens, why i ran 15 tests. To avoid the random factor as much as "possible".
I just ran another 15 tests. Same parameters as first 15 to get an even bigger statisical base. The average firing of the event was 4.9 times in those.
Not a single time did it fire less than two times. High was 12.
Sure theoritically it proves nothing. It can still happen, but when some thing happens so frequently off the mark by a factor of 500%. Any stactician would be suspecious. Either there is some factors that we arent aware of aka not descriped or else i would say the formular is very possibly flawed.

Kind regards,

Rasmus