November Surprise – October 1938 – December 1938
Blue – Full Election (Washington DC Government)
Light Blue – Partial Election (Washington DC Government)
Teal – Full Election (Baton Rouge Government)
Light Green – Partial Election (Baton Rouge Government)
Yellow – Partial Election at Local Level Only (Baton Rouge Government)
Grey – No Elections Held
Blue – Full Election (Washington DC Government)
Light Blue – Partial Election (Washington DC Government)
Teal – Full Election (Baton Rouge Government)
Light Green – Partial Election (Baton Rouge Government)
Yellow – Partial Election at Local Level Only (Baton Rouge Government)
Grey – No Elections Held
1938 was an election year in the United States’ traditional bi-annual election calendar. While the Pacific States of America had held national elections the previous November, the two chief claimants to continuity with the old Republic – Huey Long’s Baton Rouge government and General MacArthur’s regime in Washington DC – were presented the challenging question of whether or not to go ahead with elections and in what form they could take. There was obvious precedent over this question, with both the North and South having held elections midway through the First American Civil War, weakening arguments for suspending them outright.
Baton Rouge moved first on this issue, when President Long announced the starting pistol for a midterm election campaign as early as June. MacArthur lagged behind, seeing a divisive political campaign as an unnecessary distraction during a time of war, but ultimately felt compelled to prove the democratic credentials of his regime. In both governments’ territories, no clean and even slate of contests would be possible, with differing levels of stability, civilian control and trust in the local populace influence the nature of elections in different parts of the country.
Under Washington DC, full elections at Gubernatorial, Senatorial, Congressional and State levels with no restrictions on the franchise were held only in New England, while in New York, New Jersey and Delaware were held in parts of the state but under heavy military supervision and with areas with heavy historic syndicalist or Longist presence excluded. Areas on the frontline in Maryland, Pennsylvania and parts of New York were excluded entirely. In Baton Rouge controlled America, a full suite of elections were held in a total of 10 Southern states, with elections were also held in large parts of Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Kansas and Arizona that were sufficiently distant from frontlines. Most interesting in the case of the Longist zone was the regime’s treatment of the sizeable collection of Mid Western states that had joined Jack Reed’s rebellion in 1937. In a total of 5 of these states, all of them still under martial law, elections were held for a number of local offices – with a view to restoring a degree of civilian control over domestic affairs. These elections were geographically limited, were carried out under military supervision and without secret ballots and with tight controls on which candidates could run and who could vote – with known syndicalists denied the franchise outright.
Despite a shared decision to go ahead with elections, the nature of the electoral contests in the two Americas were quite distinct. In Federalist territory, General MacArthur presented himself as above and separate from politics – allowing political debate to operate at a level below his own regime. With both Democrats and Republicans closely tied to the regime, and politics outwith the traditional two parties strictly forbidden, substantive questions over ideology and the conduct of the war were off the ballot. Instead, debate focussed on local issues and key civilian concerns. Progressive-leaning Democrats conducted a number of vigorous campaigns calling for greater state intervention to support civilian economies upended by the war and promoting further measures to integrate African-Americans. These efforts paid fruit, with left-leaning Democrats securing a score of victories, bouncing back from their dreadful performance of 1936. It was notable that Herbert Hoover, despite his side-lining from MacArthur’s Presidential cabinet, chose to place himself at the centre of the Republican campaign – hoping to leverage a strong set of results to rebuild his waning political influence. The poor showing of his party across the region badly damaged his personal prestige and led to his effective retirement from active political life by the end of the year – as he left Washington to take up residence at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in New York City.
To the south and west, Huey Long adopted a more pointedly party political campaign in which he would stake his own personal political capital on the performance of his America First Party. The party itself would win the elections comfortably with a simple message of ‘keep calm, and trust President Long’. The was greatly aided by a staunch government-aligned partisanship in the press and a massive organisational advantage over its rivals, going uncontested in more than a third of all the Congressional districts holding elections. Huey Long would be surprised to see his candidates generally underperform their 1936 performances anywhere they were confronted with credible opposition. The biggest beneficiaries of this weakness proved to be the extremist Christian Nationalists, who appealed directly to the Longist base, and won more than two dozen Congressional seats and saw Gerald Smith with the Senatorial election in Arkansas, an impressive victory. The Southern Democrats, organisationally and ideologically distinct from their New England cousins in the Federalist zone, also fared well – making measured gains totally around a dozen additional Congressional seats alongside a variety of down ballot successes. There were even a small handful of Independents and former Republicans elected, particularly in border states. The drink issue proved to be especially damaging for America First, with a groundswell of prohibitionist sentiment powering much of the Christian Nationalists’ success and dampening enthusiasm for the incumbent party.
The elections held in the five former syndicalist states were, for the most part, tightly controlled affairs won with ease by America First candidates in circumstances that were as distant from free and fair elections. The one exception to this was Ohio. There, the most powerful office up for election, the newly introduced position of Vice Governor – effectively allowing for an elected civilian politician to act as the deputy of a military governor until full reintegration – was won by a certain Robert Taft, running under the banner of Independent Republican.
Taft was American political royalty, his father William Howard Taft having served as President between 1909 and 1913 and then Chief Justice of the Supreme Court from 1921 until his death in 1930. The younger Taft had been a player in Ohio state politics through the 1920s and 1930s, serving in its state legislature for much of this time. As the country fell into civil war in early 1937, Robert Taft’s home at Sky Farm on the outskirts of Cincinnati was occupied by Red Guards – who seized the property, brutally beat Taft himself and killed one of his two younger children who still lived at home before casting him and his traumatised family out. The Tafts would find shelter among friends within Cincinnati who hid them from the syndicalist authorities before the Longists captured the city weeks after the outbreak of fighting – allowing Taft to come out of hiding and return to his property. Following this experience, Taft became an enthusiastic backer of the Baton Rouge government, although resisting pressure to join America First itself. His victory in Ohio added a new blot to the political tapestry of Huey Long’s America.
Exasperated and downbeat after his party’s humbling electoral performance, Huey Long offered public assurances that his government would respond to popular demands. Hoping to reduce the troublesome influence of Smith and his Christian Nationalists, before the end of the year the President had put legislation before Congress in Baton Rouge that would implement a federal ban on the sale and importation of liquor – with a number of small exceptions including for religious observance and most notably for frontline soldiers, at the behest of key army leaders. Decades of anti-liquor activism had achieved the greatest victory in their history, making the fairly bibulous Long the unlikely face of a bold new ‘Noble Experiment’ in American history.
Just days after election day, General MacArthur pulled off an unexpected second amphibious landing on the Atlantic coastline of Dixie. Drawing troops from both the North East and Florida, the Federalist took advantage of the withdrawal of much of the Longists’ coastal garrison to fight further south to land tens of thousands of troops along the North Carolina shoreline. Faced with open terrain, through the rest of November the Federalist drove deeply inland – capturing the cities of Charlotte and Raleigh – while also advancing up the coast to retake the crucial port of Norfolk for the first time since Eisenhower’s surrender in spring 1937. By early December the Federalist invasion had run out of steam – held back in the west by the Appalachians while seeing heavy resistance around Richmond in Virginia and Columbia in South Carolina. Nonetheless, they were able to settle into a strong defensive position.
This invasion had a number of consequences. By withdrawing troops from Florida, it left the Federalists undermanned on their most southerly front, and allowed the Longists regain significant ground there. However, the fall of Norfolk left the crucial Longist line south of Washington DC badly exposed, with its supply lines shaky and vulnerable without the port city. Finally it left Baton Rouge’s high command panicked and scrambling yet again as it sought to redeploy sufficient forces to contain and push back the landings.
The Longists were hit hard by these sudden losses that saw them lose control of the majority of the East Coast – with morale across the board plunging and fear spreading across the South that the war would soon come to their communities. Most notably, the Federalists made use of a new tactic – offering appeals towards Blacks to defect to the Federalist cause. During its campaigns in Florida, the MacArthur regime had been surprised at the level of enthusiasm Federalist forces elicited from African American communities – with thousands in the state volunteering to fight for Washington during their occupation. This had encouraged Federalist military officials, to make a larger effort during the North Carolina campaign to issue propaganda depicting MacArthur as a latter-day Abe Lincoln who would sweep away Jim Crow and raise the Black man to equality with the White man for the first time in American history. This message resonated, and tens of thousands of African Americans would sign up to support the Federalist occupation in North Carolina, while also providing key intelligence to MacArthur’s troops.
While Baton Rouge scrambled to counter the Federalist campaigns along the eastern seaboard, in the Midwest early December witnessed the first major Longist offensive against the Syndicalists since the Spring. Noticing the difficulties that the syndicalists were having in keeping their supply lines to their outposts in rural northern Lower Peninsula Michigan open in the icy conditions of deepest winter, the Longists sprang a controlled operation in the area. In a matter of weeks, the syndicalists were pushed back into a limited pocket in eastern Michigan around Detroit, Lansing and Flint, with a total of 15,000 soldiers surrendering to the Longists. After a reprieve of several months, the noose was tightening around Red America once again – the ultimate demise of the syndicalist movement appeared certain and close.
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