Episode IX – Options
January 14th, 1936
Cabinet Office, Whitehall, London
H-Hour plus nine
‘Gentlemen. Please take a seat’.
The arrival of the French foreign minister in London caused quite a bit of commotion. He had immediately requested a meeting with Prime Minister Baldwin and a cabinet meeting had been scheduled for later in the afternoon with the leaders of the Imperial General Staff and representatives of the intelligence services attending. Diplomats at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office frantically tried to gather as much information from their contacts abroad as they could.
At approximately 3.20 p.m. Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin arrived at Whitehall and the cabinet meeting began. On his right side sat Foreign Secretary Anthony Eden and on his left Lord Halifax, the Secretary of State for War. The others present at the meeting were the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Neville Chamberlain, First Sea Lord Admiral Ernle Chatfield, Bolton Eyres-Monsell, First Lord of the Admiralty, Secretary of State for Air Philip Cunliffe-Lister, the gruff Chief of the Imperial General Staff Field Marshal Archibald Montgomery-Massingberd and last but not least Sir Hugh Sinclair, head of MI6.
‘I trust that you have all been briefed on the immediate situation concerning Foreign Minister Flandin’s visit. I have just had a meeting with him in which he made it quite clear that France has not yet decided on a course of action but are leaning towards armed intervention and seeking our support in the matter. I would therefore like to begin with an update from Secretary Eden and Lord Sinclair about what we know so far’, Baldwin said and nodded to Anthony Eden to proceed.
‘Thank you Prime Minister’, Eden began. ‘The sources of the Foreign Office in Berlin have reported no news about any operations by the German military. However, reports from Belgium indicate that the German army has indeed moved in to reoccupy the demilitarized zone on both sides of the Rhine. Our officials monitoring the zone have pulled out and are now in Verviers. They have been told to report to our embassy in Brussels for a complete debriefing. We have heard nothing specific yet, but we expect to know more later tonight or tomorrow morning’.
‘Thank you’, Baldwin replied. ‘Lord Sinclair, why didn’t we see this coming?’
‘Well Prime Minister’, Sir Hugh began as he put down his pipe, ‘the demilitarized zone is not very large – approximately the size of Norwich – and reoccupying it would not require more than a handful of battalions. A couple of divisions at most. If the German high command were to keep the operation under wraps, the movement of such a relatively small force could escape our notice’.
‘I see’, the Prime Minister grunted. ‘Lord Chancellor, please present us with your views on this situation. What effect will this move have on the German and our own economy?’
‘Prime Minister’, Chamberlain began, ‘the situation does not alter anything in the balance of our economies. As I am sure you all know we withdrew our occupying forces from the Rhineland in 1931 and France followed suit a year later. Since then Germany has had full control of the industry in the area and, may I add, been able to increase their payments of war reparations, allowing us to lower taxes and improve the standard of living here at home’.
‘We lower taxes while Hitler builds tanks and riffles’, Sir Hugh grunted.
Ignoring the bitter remark, Prime Minister Baldwin turned once again to Anthony Eden. ‘Mr. Foreign Secretary, what are the diplomatic repercussions if Hitler is allowed to occupy the demilitarized zone?’
‘Well, Hitler and his government stand to gain in popularity for challenging the treaty powers of Locarno and violating the Treaty of Versailles. On the other hand, allowing the reoccupation to proceed could be seen as a just and generous move on our part and a step towards bettering diplomatic relations with Germany and ensuring the future peace of the continent. The Locarno Treaty Powers are divided with Italy at war in Africa and Belgium sitting on the fence. The French are likely to protest to the League of Nations, who is the only political body that can legally rule in a dispute of this nature. But Germany withdrew from the League in 1933 and so does not necessarily accept its ruling. And since the League has no armed forces, France is likely to offer their armies to enforce the will of the League – should it rule against Germany’.
‘Mr. Flandin has presented me with a proposal along those lines’, Baldwin nodded.
‘I expected that, Prime Minister. The French government has an election coming up in a few months and starting a new war with Germany is not likely to win them any support. They need allies to ensure victory and not another bloodbath like 1914-1918’.
‘Lord Halifax, what are our military options?’ Baldwin asked.
‘Not encouraging I am afraid’, Lord Halifax responded and began shuffling through a number of pages in front of him. ‘Although we began mechanising our cavalry regiments back in 1929, cuts in spending and budgets throughout the armed forces have slowed the process. We currently have just six regiments of motorised cavalry and one light armoured division. The Territorial Army numbers just eleven divisions – most of them poorly equipped and without proper training’.
The last remark resulted in a loud cough from Field Marshal Montgomery-Massingberd at the end of the table, who was visibly angry when the eyes of the others turned to him.
‘Do you wish to add something Field Marshal?’ Baldwin inquired.
‘Thank you Prime Minister’. The field Marshal cleared his throat and with a sullen look at the War Secretary continued. ‘Lord Halifax is correct that the mechanisation of our cavalry is taking longer to complete than first projected because funds have continually been relocated to the Royal Navy and the Royal Air Force, but the Territorial Army is both well trained and highly motivated. We have kicked the
Hun before and we can do it again! If we mobilise today, I can have an expeditionary force of six to eight divisions ready in France in five weeks.’
‘WHAT? And leave half the Home Isles undefended, open to invasion? That is madness!’ Chamberlain objected.
‘No invasion force will set foot on British soil. The Royal Navy is still the largest fleet in the world and able to shield us from any invasion, as I am sure Lord Eyres-Monsell and Admiral Chatfield agrees with me’, the field marshal replied flatly.
‘Of course’, Chatfield replied cautiously, ‘though I must caution the cabinet that with a number of our aircraft carriers and battleships undergoing long-term maintenance, to be able to protect the British isles would mean cannibalising the Mediterranean Fleet, increasing the vulnerability of Gibraltar, Malta and the Suez to Italian aggression’.
Baldwin now turned to Sir Hugh again. ‘And what is MI6’s analysis of the current political situation?’
‘MI6 views this move as a test of the resolve of the Locarno Powers’, Sir Hugh said. ‘The fact that Reich chancellor Hitler has not yet appeared on German radio proudly announcing the occupation tells us that they are awaiting our response. In my opinion, if we condemn the violation of the Treaty of Versailles and make a show of force with France, Hitler will back down. He must. In the end it might not even be necessary with armed intervention’.
‘And you are willing to bet the future of our Empire, to risk war and the ruin of our economy on this analysis of yours?’ Chamberlain asked acidly.
‘The Chancellor is right’, Anthony Eden said. ‘We have been trying to improve relations with Germany for years. Through treaties, negotiations and skilled diplomacy by the Foreign Office we have ensured Germany’s participation in the work for peace in Europe. I believe that we have a genuine possibility of getting Germany to join the League of Nations once more, if we are prepared to accept that Germany is entitled to a greater degree of autonomy than that set forth in the Treaty of Versailles. We can’t throw years’ work away now just to soothe the hurt pride of France. Diplomacy must be allowed to run its course’.
Stanley Baldwin sighed and rubbed his forehead before speaking. ‘Gentlemen. I have another meeting with Foreign Minister Flandin tonight before he flies back to Paris. I am going to inform him that His Majesty’s government will support bringing this matter before the League of Nations and – if the Council deems it necessary to enforce the treaty obligations of Germany – place British armed forces at the League’s disposal. I will not abandon France. And I will not tolerate Germany’s violation of the Treaty of Versailles and continued threat to peace in Europe’.
Stanley Baldwin, British Prime Minister - a man of principle
