Infinite Money, Where it Likely Comes From, and how to fix it
I've been taking a fairly hard look at the Victoria economic model, largely because I think in the current incarnation, it's pretty thoroughly broken. Late in the game, especially, all the power are awash in cash, money they can't possibly dream of spending, nomatter what they do. Which, in turn, leads to ludicrous armies and other absurdities.
This led me to look at the overall money supply in game, which I think may reveal the source of the problem.
I toyed with two possible economic models, trying to figure out which one the game was using, and came to the conclusion that only one can be right.
Model A: Fixed Money Supply
Under this model, there's a fixed amount of physical cash in the game. It starts out spread out amongst the population and then rattles around among them as they buy/sell things.
If this model were in place, you'd expect to see a number of things, notably:
1) Acute deflation. As the number of good in game increased, and the money supply stayed constant, a given quantity of cash would have to purchase a larger quantity of goods in order to keep the two in balance.
2) Acute Cash Shortages. If the government took a cut out of every transaction (which it does, it's called taxes), and the government didn't always spend all its cash (which it doesn't later in the game), then proportionately more and more of the world's cash would end up in government coffers, leaving none behind for the population to use.
We don't see either of these though, which leads me to the inevitable conclusion that Victoria runs on a flexible money supply.
Model B: Flexible Money Supply
Under this model, the abolute amount of cash in circulation varies. Ideally, a central bank tries to match money supply growth to productivity growth to keep the two in balance, but that's a very sophisticated post WW II concept. Back in the Victorian era, they just kind of guessed, and they weren't always right.
This model is pretty obviously what Victoria is using, but the question then emerges as to where the extra cash is coming from?
The conclusion I've reached is that the extra cash is created by RGO sales on the world market which, I suspect, is not truly a world market, but rather an infinitely rich middleman. To see why I think it's not a true market, we have to look at two scenarios.
Scenario I: World Market is a true market
Under this scenario, whenever a Farmer sells $100 worth of wheat, some other collection of buys across the globe, cough up a total of $100 to pay for it. This seems not only plausible, but obvious, but it leads to two consequences we don't see in victoria.
1) Everyone will go broke within about four transactions. Since government is taking a chunk out of every sale, a total of $100 will have been *paid* for the wheat, but only, say $40 will have been received (60% marginal tax rate). Within a few transactions, all the money in the system will disappear into government coffers. POPs, with no cash at all, will then be unable to purchase anything, leading to a total economic collapse.
2) The World Market Couldn't hold inventories. Under this system, somebody has to buy the wheat before the producer gets paid. The world market though, will *buy* wheat, whether or not it has a final customer available, which means the market itself is coughing up the cash to pay the producer.
Scenario II: The World Market as Mr. Moneybags
Under this scenario, the world market isn't a market at all. It buys anything that is offered to it, paying out by *creating* money out of the ether. It has no obligation to match buyers to sellers, or, in fact, to *sell* anything. It will merrily buy a billion tons of wheat, knowing full well that the world cannot possibly use that much, thus injecting huge amounts of money into the system, money that will never come back out again.
Under this scenario, so long as a nation's exports exceed her imports, she'll run a net cash surplus. Given that Victoria as a whole is *very* resource rich, most every nation is a net exporter (a physical impossibility in the real world), everybody gets very, very rich towards the end of the game.
In short, blame it one world market.
Now, how does one go about fixing this?
Option A: Band Aids. Lots, and Lots of band aids.
Basically, you cut the production rate of RGOs across the board and or gimp their price. This will reduce the rate at which the money supply grows, but it won't eliminate it.
Edit:
Another pretty good band-aid would be to limit the inventory capacity of the world market to, say, 1000 of each good. If it already had a thousand of something, it wouldn't buy any more. This would prevent the eggregious resource dumping that makes everybody so rich right now.
Option B: Overhaul the market.
Treat the world market as a true market. Give it an annual budget equal to : World Money Supply (Current) * World Population Growth Rate (previous year).
Let is spend that money on those goods for which it has the highest demand first, then work its way down the list. It gets money back when it sells things. If it never makes it down the list to a commodity, like wheat, for which there is no demand, *GOOD*. It's called overproduction, and it should lead to a production crash.
If it runs out of money, it can't buy anything else until either it sells off some resources, *or* the year ends and the money supply kicks up a smidge.
EDIT:
The game also includes a variety of cash sinks (wasteage), such as your crime fighting budget, the cost to change social services, and your education budget. Money spent in these fashions doesn't flow back to any specific POP, or even re-enter the economy. It simply vanishes.
To make a fixed money system work, you have to plug the cash sinks as well as the cash wells, which means we have to deal with these costs. Fortunately, it's easily handled. All one need do is take any money that is spent on wasteage costs and "credit" it towards the world market where it will re-enter the world economy. Alternately, you can just randomly distribute it amongst your own internal POPS. Either way, cash spent in such a fasion can't be allowed to leave the system.
This will have a variety of effects.
1) The money supply won't explode. This is prima facia a good thing.
2) Late in the game, agricultural nations will have a horrible time making money (China), but early in the game they should do quite a bit better.
3) Players can no longer get rich dumping ludicrous quantities of exports on the world market. My 1910 Germany was exporting 4,000 some units and importing about 30. That simply wouldn't fly anymore under this model unless some other nation were importing 4,000 and exporting 30.
4) The world would rapidly degenerate into a class of rich net exporters, and poor net importers.
5) The world money supply would rapidly flow towards the industrialized nations.
All of these, in my mind, are good things, because they represent what actually happened during this time period.