Analysis of Soviet Production 1936-1939

IEX Totalview · 06-05-2003, 04:27

Ok, I only play HOI SP (for multiple reasons) and I love to be the Soviet Union. Since I've played more than a dozen complete games as the good old USSR, I began to wonder exactly how their production breaks down. Obviously, it pays to improve all industry for a few years, and your production goes up and CG demand decreases over time. But how much exactly?

To find that out, I took the USSR and played a game under 1.04. Each month I wrote down my total ICs and CG demand. I played with the following rules:

1) I did no research or production
2) I improved industry in all provinces the first two years (1936 & 1937) and none after that.
3) I made sure all events went historical - Spanish Civil War, Anschluss, Munich & Danzig.
4) I accepted the purges.
5) There were no random events
6) I took the Molotv-Ribbentrop
7) I triggered the Winter War 09-02-39 and annexed Finland 09-28-39
8) I recieved Eastern Poland & the Baltics in October 1939 and Bessarabia in November 1939.

The question is how much useable production did I have? The answer:

359,925 ICs. That averages out to 249.95 ICs a day. Please note those numbers are after subtracting consumer goods demand.

Gross ICs and CG demand by years

Code:

Year     Gross ICs     Less CG Demand   Useable ICs   WA CG %
1936        75,240           43,044       32,196        57.21%
1937        95,040           46,857       48,183        49.30%
1938       216,000           87,912      128,088        40.70%
1939       220,860           69,402      151,458        31.60%
Total      607,140          247,215      359,925

Please note the Consumer Good Demand Percentage is a weighted average amount tracked monthly.

Interesting to note the required CG % essentially halves between 1936 and 1939, assuming normal Axis aggression.

The breakdown of useable ICs by years:

Code:

                            Percentage
Year       Useable ICs       of Total  
1936          32,196            8.95%
1937          48,183           13.39%
1938         128,088           35.59%
1939         151,458           42.08%

Again, these numbers assume improving all industry 1936-1937.

Also interesting to note that 77.66% of all useable Soviet ICs are available in 1938-1939, which is part of the reason researching as the Soviet Union early on is difficult, since the good techs (like improved bombers) take more than two years to research.

Finally, just for comparison, the IC cost of some units and doctorines, unadjusted for ministers or techs:

Code:

Units:
Infantry - Vanilla                                 450 ICs
Infantry - Artillery                             1,500 ICs
Mechanized Infantry                              2,340 ICs
Pre-War Tank                                     3,600 ICs
Pre-War Fighter                                  1,620 ICs
Pre-War Tactical Bomber                          1,500 ICs
Applications:
Medium Mortar                                      720 ICs
Basic Electromagnetic Computers                  1,800 ICs
Isotope Separation Process                       3,000 ICs
Theory:
Artillery Theory                                 3,600 ICs
Industry Theory                                  4,400 ICs 
Nuclear Theory                                   7,200 ICs
Doctorine Theory                                12,000 ICs

To kind of give you an idea of the "buying power" of the the Soviet's 360,000 ICs. Any thoughts or comments?

Steele · 06-05-2003, 04:30

Thats 800 vanilla infantry divisons. Thats a godawful lot of infantry.

Of course, thats assuming that much manpower exists, and that nothing else is built, and that no research is done...

Steele

IEX Totalview · 06-05-2003, 04:41

Quote:

Originally posted by Steele
Thats 800 vanilla infantry divisons. Thats a godawful lot of infantry.

Of course, thats assuming that much manpower exists, and that nothing else is built, and that no research is done...

Steele

Or, if you are the AI, 222 pre-war fighters.

Graycloak · 06-05-2003, 06:22

I didn't track the numbers - but that is actually slightly low ;-)

A more "maximized" scheme is to build industry in every province with less than 11 industry in '36, every prov less than 9 in '37 and only those less than 5 in '38 - and none thereafter. (I'm sure there is a more precise method - but that one works well and I really can't be bothered to work out the exact numbers)
*there is also probably a minor hiccup in production around '39 when I usually build a bunch of level 1 forts)

You also need to research industry techs up to the improved rubber level anyways to make sure industry works fine after war breaks out...so grab the +5% efficiency from Polyurethane.

Also make sure you use the Resource Industrialist minister and avoid installing Beria as security chief until you have enough foreign ICs to make it worth the increase in consumer goods.

Steele · 06-05-2003, 10:31

54 pre-war battleships. Now thats a fleet.

Steele

IEX Totalview · 06-05-2003, 14:40

Quote:

Originally posted by Graycloak
I didn't track the numbers - but that is actually slightly low ;-)

A more "maximized" scheme is to build industry in every province with less than 11 industry in '36, every prov less than 9 in '37 and only those less than 5 in '38 - and none thereafter. (I'm sure there is a more precise method - but that one works well and I really can't be bothered to work out the exact numbers)
*there is also probably a minor hiccup in production around '39 when I usually build a bunch of level 1 forts)

You also need to research industry techs up to the improved rubber level anyways to make sure industry works fine after war breaks out...so grab the +5% efficiency from Polyurethane.

Also make sure you use the Resource Industrialist minister and avoid installing Beria as security chief until you have enough foreign ICs to make it worth the increase in consumer goods.

Well, I kept it simple for analysis sake. I doubt there is much difference, however.

First, you say less than 11 in 1936. Why 11? It cost no more to improve a 30 IC than an 11 IC province, so why stop there?

As far as 9 or less in 1937, since there are only about 10 provinces (if that many) with 9 ICs or more, the difference is not great.

And improving any province in 1938 will reduce the total amount of ICs you have received by 1939, since you will "spend" 1-2 Ics in 1938 and recover one extra in 1939 for each province you upgrade.

Also I've generally learned its best to keep core Soviet industry level between 600-650 ICs or you start having resource trouble. My method leaves it at 600, a nice number.

I do believe even if your changes were made, it would not reduce the ICs received by 1939 by more than 10,000 either way.

Thanks for the feedback, though. If you would like to test your method and let me know, I'm curious to find out for sure.

Graycloak · 06-05-2003, 15:33

The cutoff levels are purely arbitrary - since you lose a max of 5ic either way..it was just a guildline to keep some of the provs working at full for research purposes. Going by memory from my last game the SU ends up at around 700ICs and that is sustainable with only a few minor trades.

IEX Totalview · 06-05-2003, 16:22

Quote:

Originally posted by Graycloak
The cutoff levels are purely arbitrary - since you lose a max of 5ic either way..it was just a guildline to keep some of the provs working at full for research purposes. Going by memory from my last game the SU ends up at around 700ICs and that is sustainable with only a few minor trades.

I agree with the arbitrary cutoff. Like you, I like to keep it simple.

As far as 700 ICs, whether ir is sustainable depends on if you are at war and your level of industrial/electronics development. You are right in that more than 650 is possible and I've actually juggled 750+ IC Soviet economies well into 1941 with some agile trades and good research. I just don't think its worth the upgrade since by the time the investment pays back you've likely annexed Germany anyway

so the extra 100 ICs is not as important.

06-05-2003, 04:27	#1
IEX Totalview Tax Director I Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Central Alabama Posts: 1,912	Analysis of Soviet Production 1936-1939 Ok, I only play HOI SP (for multiple reasons) and I love to be the Soviet Union. Since I've played more than a dozen complete games as the good old USSR, I began to wonder exactly how their production breaks down. Obviously, it pays to improve all industry for a few years, and your production goes up and CG demand decreases over time. But how much exactly? To find that out, I took the USSR and played a game under 1.04. Each month I wrote down my total ICs and CG demand. I played with the following rules: 1) I did no research or production 2) I improved industry in all provinces the first two years (1936 & 1937) and none after that. 3) I made sure all events went historical - Spanish Civil War, Anschluss, Munich & Danzig. 4) I accepted the purges. 5) There were no random events 6) I took the Molotv-Ribbentrop 7) I triggered the Winter War 09-02-39 and annexed Finland 09-28-39 8) I recieved Eastern Poland & the Baltics in October 1939 and Bessarabia in November 1939. The question is how much useable production did I have? The answer: 359,925 ICs. That averages out to 249.95 ICs a day. Please note those numbers are after subtracting consumer goods demand. Gross ICs and CG demand by years Code: Year Gross ICs Less CG Demand Useable ICs WA CG % 1936 75,240 43,044 32,196 57.21% 1937 95,040 46,857 48,183 49.30% 1938 216,000 87,912 128,088 40.70% 1939 220,860 69,402 151,458 31.60% Total 607,140 247,215 359,925 Please note the Consumer Good Demand Percentage is a weighted average amount tracked monthly. Interesting to note the required CG % essentially halves between 1936 and 1939, assuming normal Axis aggression. The breakdown of useable ICs by years: Code: Percentage Year Useable ICs of Total 1936 32,196 8.95% 1937 48,183 13.39% 1938 128,088 35.59% 1939 151,458 42.08% Again, these numbers assume improving all industry 1936-1937. Also interesting to note that 77.66% of all useable Soviet ICs are available in 1938-1939, which is part of the reason researching as the Soviet Union early on is difficult, since the good techs (like improved bombers) take more than two years to research. Finally, just for comparison, the IC cost of some units and doctorines, unadjusted for ministers or techs: Code: Units: Infantry - Vanilla 450 ICs Infantry - Artillery 1,500 ICs Mechanized Infantry 2,340 ICs Pre-War Tank 3,600 ICs Pre-War Fighter 1,620 ICs Pre-War Tactical Bomber 1,500 ICs Applications: Medium Mortar 720 ICs Basic Electromagnetic Computers 1,800 ICs Isotope Separation Process 3,000 ICs Theory: Artillery Theory 3,600 ICs Industry Theory 4,400 ICs Nuclear Theory 7,200 ICs Doctorine Theory 12,000 ICs To kind of give you an idea of the "buying power" of the the Soviet's 360,000 ICs. Any thoughts or comments? __________________ A Mike Tyson's Punch-out AAR Conquest of Europe: A L'Empereur AAR Missionaries driving you mad? Find out how and why the little guys work (EU2): Missionary and Conversion FAQ

06-05-2003, 04:30	#2
Steele The Ancient Mariner Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The land of the snow and ice. Posts: 2,664	Thats 800 vanilla infantry divisons. Thats a godawful lot of infantry. Of course, thats assuming that much manpower exists, and that nothing else is built, and that no research is done... Steele __________________ This world would be a lot better off if everyone was as smart as I are, and knew what I've did. El Submarines for El Salvador - An AAR - Completed Nukes for Nepal - An AAR - Completed Battleships for Bhutan - An AAR - Completed Member of the HoI and Victoria Worst Players Clubs since 6 May, 2003 and 7 May, 2004, respectively Steele's Law: The chances of a thread mentioning the B-36 Peacemaker increase proportionally to the number of posts that Steele has made within.

06-05-2003, 10:31	#5
Steele The Ancient Mariner Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The land of the snow and ice. Posts: 2,664	54 pre-war battleships. Now thats a fleet. Steele __________________ This world would be a lot better off if everyone was as smart as I are, and knew what I've did. El Submarines for El Salvador - An AAR - Completed Nukes for Nepal - An AAR - Completed Battleships for Bhutan - An AAR - Completed Member of the HoI and Victoria Worst Players Clubs since 6 May, 2003 and 7 May, 2004, respectively Steele's Law: The chances of a thread mentioning the B-36 Peacemaker increase proportionally to the number of posts that Steele has made within.

06-05-2003, 06:22	#4
Graycloak First Lieutenant Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Albany, NY Posts: 299	I didn't track the numbers - but that is actually slightly low ;-) A more "maximized" scheme is to build industry in every province with less than 11 industry in '36, every prov less than 9 in '37 and only those less than 5 in '38 - and none thereafter. (I'm sure there is a more precise method - but that one works well and I really can't be bothered to work out the exact numbers) *there is also probably a minor hiccup in production around '39 when I usually build a bunch of level 1 forts) You also need to research industry techs up to the improved rubber level anyways to make sure industry works fine after war breaks out...so grab the +5% efficiency from Polyurethane. Also make sure you use the Resource Industrialist minister and avoid installing Beria as security chief until you have enough foreign ICs to make it worth the increase in consumer goods.

06-05-2003, 15:33	#7
Graycloak First Lieutenant Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Albany, NY Posts: 299	The cutoff levels are purely arbitrary - since you lose a max of 5ic either way..it was just a guildline to keep some of the provs working at full for research purposes. Going by memory from my last game the SU ends up at around 700ICs and that is sustainable with only a few minor trades.