Hypothetical Scenario Idea: Qing survives?

[Shogun 144]

Hey everyone I just had an idea for an alternate history scenario involving the Qing Dynasty of China. This is just an framework here.

Okay...

Suppose that instead of Cixi China gets an Emperor who has the broad vision of Kangxi, and the work ethic of Yongzheng. This hypothetical Emperor realizes that Qing must modernize to survive. He sends out scholars to gain infromation from the Western Powers, and starts modernizing. By the time of the RL First Sino-Japanese War (or Jiawu War) China has engouth modern equipped and trained troops and naval crews to fight the Japanese Empire to a stalemate. They come to an agreement to divide Korea in half between them. In the ensuing years the Qing become advanced engouth to no longer need to have thier ships constructed in foreign yards, Nanjing becomes the major shipbuilding center. The army also becomes fully modernized and trained along German lines. Control is centerlized in the person of the Emperor, preventing a possible Yuan Shikai from happening. Railways grow to cover the expanse of the whole empire. Meanwhile our hypothetical Emperor realizes that the growing anti-Manchu sentiment must be nipped in the bud, so the Qing began a program of supporting the peasentry, earning the love of the people. In 1905 Russia invades the Qing, with the goal of gaining Manchuria. But Qing, with it's vast population and strong economy gives the Russians a good bloody nose. In 1906 Theodore Roosevelt of the United States negoiates a peace deal between Qing and Russia, bring the war to a close. Germany realizes that Qing whould make a good ally in case of world war, and they negoiate an alliance treaty. In August, 1914 world war breaks out, Japan invades Qing Korea and becomes bogged down after intial success, setting the stage for a stalemate not that unlike the Western Front. Russia invades, eager for revenge, and is pushed back by the Qing. The Qing then counter-invade, making great gains against the imcompetent Russian forces. To the south the Qing launch a surprise invasion of French Indochina, and take it after much hard fighting. In 1917 the Bolshiveks take over Russia and negoiate with the Qing, in exchange for a pledge of non-agression from the Qing the Bolshiveks are willing to hand over the regions along the Ussuri and area around Lake Balkash. The Qing accept and they sign the treaty, which is called the Treaty of Vladivostock. In 1918 the war in Europe ends with the November 11 Armistice, but the problem of how to deal with Qing remains. The French want revenge, but the British are tried of war and the Americans are not willing to send thier boys to China. So a seperate treaty, reconizing the Qing control of Korea north of the 39th parallel and of parts of Indochina (Vietnam) is signed, this treaty is called the Treaty of Peking. When the Russian Civil War breaks out the Qing refuses to get involved, despite the pleas of the White Russians to help them. In 1922 the world's three foremost naval powers, the United States of America, the British Empire, and the Great Qing Empire sign the Washington Naval Treaty, limiting each nation's battleship fleet so that they were all equal. The ecomony of Qing quickly begins to soar in the postwar period, by mid twenties the econmy of Qing surpasses all others, even Britain's. In 1929 the world-wide Great Depression hits, but Qing is little effected by it beyond a panic in 1930. In the aftermath of this the Qing close themselves off from international politics, setting the stage for the scenario

By 1936 Qing is one of the world's foremost Great Powers, it has a navy that is staggering in size, even with the Washington Treaty restrictions. The New Army is the largest on the planet, but it is technologically behind. Tanks are not an idea that has caught on in the Qing Empire, thier rifles should be bolt-actions. The Qing Airforce is large and made up of monoplanes, but it is new branch and untested. The goverment is an absolute monarchy, with good, but conservative minsters. An AI controlled Qing should be a sleeping dragon, in other words a nation that is hard to rouse back into international activities, but once roused is a beast to stop.

Some possible events I have thought of are (note: these are just general ideas, I have no scripting abilites what so ever):

Japan invades Qing Korea again: This idea is that in 1938 Japan, eager for revenge for thier past two defeats. If the Japanese cross the Yalu and threaten to overrun Manchuria then the Beijing court automatically sues for peace. If Japanese Korea and Ryukyu is lost then Britain intervenes and so begins a chain of events involving the bickering over the peace treary.

The Burma Incident: A patrol from Burma runs afoul of the border between Britain and Qing in 1940, and this can escalate into a full fledged war. If it does then then Qing launches an invasion of Burma, France sees an oppertunity to gain revenge (this happens even if the alternate path is taken) and Qing stages an invasion of the remanents of French Indochina (Laos and Cambodia). Once Burma, Laos, and Cambodia fall the Qing can either advance towards British India or Malaysia. If Malaysia then Qing asks for permission to advance through Thai territory. The Thai can either give permission (military access), or they can stand and fight. In any case the Fall of Signapore triggers an event for Britain where they can choose to send a group of anti-Qing scholars who fled the country to stir up trouble. If the Qing choose to attack the Raj then the above triggers with the Fall of Delhi. Qing can also invade Nepal, on the claim of they were vassals of China once. The British will only negoiate with Qing once the entirety of the Raj falls and the Royal Navy presence in Southern Asia is destroyed. Qing will negoiate if British Forces should take a major city, like Nanjing.

Qing-Soviet War: This event chain starts if the Soviets choose to press for the return of the Ussuri and Lake Balkash in 1937. Qing does have the option of caving, but doing so riskes popular fury. If things escalte into war then Qing preempts the Soviets by launching a surprise attack on Soviet Central Asia. This war should be very bloody, the Soviets should negoiate if the entirety of thier holdings in Asia fall, Qing should negoiate if the Russians push them into China proper. The Soviets also have the option of funding a revolution in China if things go real bad.

Revolution!: This event chain should happen if Britian sends the intellectuals during thier war with Qing, Soviet funding in thier war with Qing, or it can happen naturally if dissent gets high engouth. In any case an armed uprising against the Emperor occurs. The rebels can be supported by any nation with holdings in Asia if it happens naturally, or Britain/USSR in thier respective event chains. The rebels win if they can take Beijing, the Qing win if they occupy all rebel territory. If the rebels win then the Republic of China is declared and the Qing are kicked into Manchuria and Korea, they can regain China though (that's a different chain althogether). If Qing wins then the rebellion is crushed, though it can reoccur every few years.

Restoration of Qing: This event chain happens if Qing is kicked out of China. Basically within a few years Qing attempts to retake China, they succeed if they destory all Republican armies in the field and take the major cities of China. The Republicans win if they take the Qing capital in Manchuria. If this happens then the event chain will reoccur every few years





Allright that concludes my basic framework folks, comments are welcome and ideas for the names of tech teams and ministers are welcome too, as I am tuckered out with all I have already thought up!

[oowie_pazoowie]

COOL.

[Shogun 144]

Thanks oowie_pazoowie! Oh come on isn't anyone else going to comment? Anyone wanna take up this idea for a scenario?

[fudd_bopo]

Sounds like an interresting idea.

[silkworm]

It seems the No WWI Scenarior maker is planning to have the circa 1936 China a Qing Empire. But I don't think that's the focus of the mod.

[mib]

Hey I like this idea. Count me in if you get to doing it.

[mib]

Originally Posted by Shogun 144

Hey everyone I just had an idea for an alternate history scenario involving the Qing Dynasty of China. This is just an framework here.

Okay...

Suppose that instead of Cixi China gets an Emperor who has the broad vision of Kangxi, and the work ethic of Yongzheng. This hypothetical Emperor realizes that Qing must modernize to survive. He sends out scholars to gain infromation from the Western Powers, and starts modernizing. By the time of the RL First Sino-Japanese War (or Jiawu War) China has engouth modern equipped and trained troops and naval crews to fight the Japanese Empire to a stalemate. They come to an agreement to divide Korea in half between them. In the ensuing years the Qing become advanced engouth to no longer need to have thier ships constructed in foreign yards, Nanjing becomes the major shipbuilding center. The army also becomes fully modernized and trained along German lines. Control is centerlized in the person of the Emperor, preventing a possible Yuan Shikai from happening. Railways grow to cover the expanse of the whole empire. Meanwhile our hypothetical Emperor realizes that the growing anti-Manchu sentiment must be nipped in the bud, so the Qing began a program of supporting the peasentry, earning the love of the people. In 1905 Russia invades the Qing, with the goal of gaining Manchuria. But Qing, with it's vast population and strong economy gives the Russians a good bloody nose. In 1906 Theodore Roosevelt of the United States negoiates a peace deal between Qing and Russia, bring the war to a close. Germany realizes that Qing whould make a good ally in case of world war, and they negoiate an alliance treaty. In August, 1914 world war breaks out, Japan invades Qing Korea and becomes bogged down after intial success, setting the stage for a stalemate not that unlike the Western Front. Russia invades, eager for revenge, and is pushed back by the Qing. The Qing then counter-invade, making great gains against the imcompetent Russian forces. To the south the Qing launch a surprise invasion of French Indochina, and take it after much hard fighting. In 1917 the Bolshiveks take over Russia and negoiate with the Qing, in exchange for a pledge of non-agression from the Qing the Bolshiveks are willing to hand over the regions along the Ussuri and area around Lake Balkash. The Qing accept and they sign the treaty, which is called the Treaty of Vladivostock. In 1918 the war in Europe ends with the November 11 Armistice, but the problem of how to deal with Qing remains. The French want revenge, but the British are tried of war and the Americans are not willing to send thier boys to China. So a seperate treaty, reconizing the Qing control of Korea north of the 39th parallel and of parts of Indochina (Vietnam) is signed, this treaty is called the Treaty of Peking. When the Russian Civil War breaks out the Qing refuses to get involved, despite the pleas of the White Russians to help them. In 1922 the world's three foremost naval powers, the United States of America, the British Empire, and the Great Qing Empire sign the Washington Naval Treaty, limiting each nation's battleship fleet so that they were all equal. The ecomony of Qing quickly begins to soar in the postwar period, by mid twenties the econmy of Qing surpasses all others, even Britain's. In 1929 the world-wide Great Depression hits, but Qing is little effected by it beyond a panic in 1930. In the aftermath of this the Qing close themselves off from international politics, setting the stage for the scenario

OK... but what about other countries in the world. Germany still gets the Treaty of Versailles or not? If so, are they still closely allied with China?

By 1936 Qing is one of the world's foremost Great Powers, it has a navy that is staggering in size, even with the Washington Treaty restrictions. The New Army is the largest on the planet, but it is technologically behind. Tanks are not an idea that has caught on in the Qing Empire, thier rifles should be bolt-actions. The Qing Airforce is large and made up of monoplanes, but it is new branch and untested. The goverment is an absolute monarchy, with good, but conservative minsters. An AI controlled Qing should be a sleeping dragon, in other words a nation that is hard to rouse back into international activities, but once roused is a beast to stop.

So does Qing have
1. strong economy, technology but weak weapons
2. strong economy but weak technology and weapons
3. strong economy and technology, and navy and airforce, but weak army???
(ie. like the US?)

Some possible events I have thought of are (note: these are just general ideas, I have no scripting abilites what so ever):

Japan invades Qing Korea again: This idea is that in 1938 Japan, eager for revenge for thier past two defeats. If the Japanese cross the Yalu and threaten to overrun Manchuria then the Beijing court automatically sues for peace. If Japanese Korea and Ryukyu is lost then Britain intervenes and so begins a chain of events involving the bickering over the peace treary.

If China modernised early then Japan would never have gotten Ryukyu.

The Burma Incident: A patrol from Burma runs afoul of the border between Britain and Qing in 1940, and this can escalate into a full fledged war. If it does then then Qing launches an invasion of Burma, France sees an oppertunity to gain revenge (this happens even if the alternate path is taken) and Qing stages an invasion of the remanents of French Indochina (Laos and Cambodia). Once Burma, Laos, and Cambodia fall the Qing can either advance towards British India or Malaysia. If Malaysia then Qing asks for permission to advance through Thai territory. The Thai can either give permission (military access), or they can stand and fight. In any case the Fall of Signapore triggers an event for Britain where they can choose to send a group of anti-Qing scholars who fled the country to stir up trouble. If the Qing choose to attack the Raj then the above triggers with the Fall of Delhi. Qing can also invade Nepal, on the claim of they were vassals of China once. The British will only negoiate with Qing once the entirety of the Raj falls and the Royal Navy presence in Southern Asia is destroyed. Qing will negoiate if British Forces should take a major city, like Nanjing.

Doesn't sound major enough, I mean, this is two (or more) world powers.

Qing-Soviet War: This event chain starts if the Soviets choose to press for the return of the Ussuri and Lake Balkash in 1937. Qing does have the option of caving, but doing so riskes popular fury. If things escalte into war then Qing preempts the Soviets by launching a surprise attack on Soviet Central Asia. This war should be very bloody, the Soviets should negoiate if the entirety of thier holdings in Asia fall, Qing should negoiate if the Russians push them into China proper. The Soviets also have the option of funding a revolution in China if things go real bad.

Then we need to overhaul USSR completely to prevent them from concentrating on Europe and neglecting Far East.

Revolution!: This event chain should happen if Britian sends the intellectuals during thier war with Qing, Soviet funding in thier war with Qing, or it can happen naturally if dissent gets high engouth. In any case an armed uprising against the Emperor occurs. The rebels can be supported by any nation with holdings in Asia if it happens naturally, or Britain/USSR in thier respective event chains. The rebels win if they can take Beijing, the Qing win if they occupy all rebel territory. If the rebels win then the Republic of China is declared and the Qing are kicked into Manchuria and Korea, they can regain China though (that's a different chain althogether). If Qing wins then the rebellion is crushed, though it can reoccur every few years.

Crushing rebellions is not my idea of a grand campaign. As an auxiliary plot/event chain though this might be good.

Restoration of Qing: This event chain happens if Qing is kicked out of China. Basically within a few years Qing attempts to retake China, they succeed if they destory all Republican armies in the field and take the major cities of China. The Republicans win if they take the Qing capital in Manchuria. If this happens then the event chain will reoccur every few years

This is connected to the events above right? Make it a major civil war and then it'll be good. And one time only. Northern China (Qing) vs Southern China (ROC). I know whose side I'll be on.

Allright that concludes my basic framework folks, comments are welcome and ideas for the names of tech teams and ministers are welcome too, as I am tuckered out with all I have already thought up!

Do you speak/know Chinese? We could work something out.

[mib]

Alternative storyline that I improved upon:

4/1851: Russia violates Treaty of Nerchinsk, unilaterally annex area above the Amur River Watershed

3/1858: Second Opium War (Arrow War) starts, Britain makes gains

5/1858: Cixi orders modernisation of army

7/1858: Second Opium War ends in British victory, Treaty of Tianjin signed

5/1862: Tongzhi Restoration, aka Self-Strengthening Movement, starts

8/1862: Cixi attempts to stop Self-Strengthening Movement, generals Zeng
Guofan, Li Hongzhang, loyal to Emperor Tongzhi, kidnaps Cixi and blackmails her into accepting reforms.

1862 -1879: Modernisation in full swing. Army modeled after Prussia. Technology acquired from Prussia. Jingoistic and militant. All in all, an Asian Prussia. Divided up Central Asia with Russia. Absolute monarchy, rule by decree. Manchu rule firmly entrenched, but in reality not enforced as modernisation thinned the difference between the Manchu and Han.
(In the meanwhile, Japan takes a parallel route, identifying more with USA, and later colonising Pacific Islands.)

3/1882: Treaty of London formally invalidates all "unequal treaties" signed by China in exchange for free trade agreements. Spheres of influence abolished. However, Macao and Hongkong remains in the respective colonial masters' hands.

5/1880: Sino-French War. China invades French Annam after rejecting the Treaty of Hue, in which the Emperor of Annam turned over rule of Annam to the French. French forces surrender at Hanoi affter 2 months. First time in this century that an Asian power has won a won against an European power. Treaty of Haiphong restricted France from colonisation of Asia and recognised Chinese protection of Corea, Annam and Siam.

7/1880: Annam annexed by China. Emperor beheaded. International outrage.
1880 - 1914: Scramble for Africa. Tangayika first Chinese colony. (OOC: Tribute to BrotherAdso's AAR.) Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, Chinese Somaliland, Djibouti, Eritrea, Madagascar.

1/1891: Chinese forces occupy and unilaterally reannexes Macao and Hongkong. Malayan Chinese revolts against British and swears allegiance to the Empire. Full-blown war averted as British backed down.

3/1891: Treaty signed with Germany and Austria-Hungary. Known as the Dreibund/三国同盟/Triple Alliance. UK, France, Russia, America and Japan forms the Quintuple Entente.

8/1914: Archduke Franz Ferdinand assasinated. The Great War starts.

1914-1916: Western European Front one big stalemate. Pacific Ocean one big blockade by America and Japan. British India cut off by impassable mountains and jungles, no action there. China makes steady inroads in Russian Asian Front. Germany sweeps across the Eastern European Front. Russia wracked by Bolshevik revolution and in the following Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, China regained all her territory as specified in the Treaty of Nerchinsk, and Germany also dictated her terms (OOC: as per real life.)

5/1918: Tides of war gradually turns against Germany in the Western Front, Allies score decisive victory at Passchendaele, Allies punch gaping holes in German lines.

11/1918: Armistice signed with Germany. Revocation of German portion of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. Seperate peace sought with China, agreed. Treaty of Versailles punishes Germany severely, would be even more severe if not for an undefeated China.

1919-1920: Russian Civil War. China avoided taking any sides.

1920-1929: Post-war reconstruction in all countries promoted peace and reconciliation. France forfeited reparations.

6/1929: Great Depression: American and worldwide economies badly hit. American banks hound the German government which were unable to pay their debts; France resumed demands for reparation. China loses much of its global market. Nationalism in different countries on the rise.

2/1932: An underground revolutionary movement known as the Guomingdang (KMT) emerges. With the motto "Nationalism, Democracy and Socialism", they gain significant support following the Empire's inability to cope with the Great Depression. Rebels overthrow local governers in Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Anhui and Jiangsu, and proclaims the Republic of China with the seat of the government in Nanjing. Han government troops refuse to put down the revolution. The Manchu Bannermen are recalled to service, and ethnic minorities (Uighurs, Mongols, Vietnamese, etc) were promised self-determination or greater autonomy in return for joining the army. Chinese Civil War ensues.

1/1933: Adolf Hitler becomes Chancellor of Germany.

The ROC controls the few provinces while the Qing controls vast tracts of land. The economy is in shambles. The player can either choose to side with the Qing and reassert their iron-fisted (but sometimes benevolent?) rule and maybe resume good relations with their old buddy Germany, or he can bring Dr. Sun Yat-sen's dreams to fruition... a free, open, democratic China, but that would mean giving up all of China's colonies and dependencies... In either case, the infrastructure is there, the technology is there, more of an ideological struggle at first to keep the player occupied for the first few years to prevent him from running amok all over the map.

LIKEE???

[Shogun 144]

Mib,


To answer your questions about my timeline:


I am sorry if I was not clear engouth in my pre-1936 timeline Germany does get the Treaty of Versailles (though it is different), I am uncertain if Germany should still be allied with Qing. What do you think?

China has a strong ecomony, technology, and weak weapons. (gotta get clearer when I type)

Alright, I am little fuzzy in that area of history, I will change my history accordingly.

What do you suggest we do to make the Burma Incident major engouth?

Agreed on that point

I meant the rebellion events to be an auxillary event chain. Sorry once again for being unclear.

Alright, one time major civil war it is!

No I do not speak Chinese, though I wish to learn


On your timeline:

Great! I like it alot Mib. I like the little tribute to BrotherAdso, his AAR was great! I have no critques on your work.