The New Years Crisis
The New Years Crisis refers to the series of event from late 1899 through early 1900 that culminated in the beginning of the Great War. In truth the roots of the crisis can be traced back to June 1899 when, following the death of Lenin, Leon Trotsky took charge of the Marxist-Leninist faction in the VSVR and quickly emerged as the favourite in the coming elections.
This might not have been a problem if it had not been for Trotsky’s flagship policy – a great revolutionary war to wipe away the imperialist powers of Europe (most notably Austria-Hungary and France). Trotsky made no secret of his desire for war and frequently called for it in his speeches and writings. Unsurprisingly really that the imperialist powers attempted to counter him at every step.
Many historians, and indeed contemporaries, tried to blame Trotsky as the sole driving force behind the idea of a grand revolutionary war. In reality Trotsky was just a product of popular forces within both Party and People that were pushing for, nay demanding that the VSVR put it now unmatched power to use by smahing the old regimes that surrounded it. This was not a man creating a jingoistic fervour out of nothing, it was a man simply making himself the flagship of that fervour. This is something that the imperialist powers seemed to misunderstand.
From early December both France and Britain were involved in anti-Trotsky propaganda campaigns in the VSVR as they supported all anti-Trotsky groups. However before the election was called both French and British propaganda rings were uncovered. After this the capitalist powers turned away from espionage and towards diplomacy.
Delcasse was one of the great diplomats of his generation. A member of the Socialist Party in France and serving under a Republican Prime Minister his personal ideology was almost as opposed to the Habsburg and Romanov Empires as it was to the VSVR yet he managed to bring the former two into a grand alliance. Travelling to the Serbian city of Belgrade in mid-December 1899 he met with Austrian and Russian delegates and together they formed the League of Nations. The League was essentially a mutual defence pact aimed directly at the influences of the VSVR and the Comintern. Each of the following powers agreed to join together in the event of an invasion by the VSVR: France, Austria-Hungary, Russia, Serbia, Switzerland and Montenegro. Only 3 non-socialist states in Europe were not League members (Bosnia, Portugal and Britain).
In the early days of January 1900 the worst fears of the League of Nations came true. On January 7th the elections in the VSVR ended. Trotsky convincingly won the Chairmanship whilst his Marxist Bloc was just shy of a majority in the Constituent Assembly. However within 5 days he had successfully expelled the True German faction – thus securing a majority in the Assembly and more importantly shoring up his popular support amongst his Marxist voter base and perhaps more importantly amongst other groups of voters who opposed the Anarchists. The move was a dramatic one as it both greatly weakened his standing within the People’s Party whilst reinforcing his already significant popularity amongst the masses.
A crucial moment in the crisis occurred on January 12th during his speech announcing the opening of the Constituent Assembly for a second time – this time without the True Germans. The speech, attended by the British ambassador to Cologne, called for the people of the Republic to now put aside their differences now that the reactionary True Germans had been defeated and to unite under the Red Flag of revolution as it marched across the entire world. This was a clear and final statement of intent from Trotsky and convinced the British ambassador that ‘’Trotsky is not a man Britain can work with’’. The ambassador returned to London where he informed Prime Minister Balfour (of the Conservative Party) that Britain must either join forces with the League of Nations of abandon Europe to the communists.
Balfour chose to fight. Just two days after Trotsky’s speech Balfour for attending a meeting with French, Austro-Hungarian and Russian diplomats as he negotiated Britain’s entry into the League and what to do next. It was decided that the League of Nations would have a headquarters established in London and its international representative would be the French foreign minister Delcasse. The League swore to protect peace around the world and the other powers agreed to a final mission to avoid war. Before Britain’s entry into the League the members had barely 2,500,000 men available to the VSVR’s army in excess of 3,000,000 (approximate). However Britain brought 7,500,000 men to the table along with a navy of incredible proportions. It was hoped that the threat of Britain’s immense military might would force Trotsky into arbitration.
On January 20th a large delegation from the League of Nations arrived in Cologne to meet with the VSVR Commissar for Foreign Affairs – James Connolly. As the opening for what would be the final chance for peace in Europe, Delcasse opened with a near utter capitulation as his desperation to avoid a war was laid bare for the world to see. ‘’What can we do to ensure peace?’’
James Connolly, sitting across a long table, stood up and leaned across the desk before describing exactly what the new ideology of the so called Trotskyite Marxists was in the most eloquent fashion possible. ‘’Our demands most moderate are – we only want the earth!’’
Aghast with horror Delcasse realised that with that simple Connolly had forever destroyed the dream of peaceful coexistence between capitalist and communist. Under the energetic leadership of Trotsky the VSVR would stop at nothing until the entire world was Red, he would never allow the Second Republic to survive. Either the imperialist powers would have to destroy the Revolution that began back in 1848 once and more all or they would be destroyed by it.
In his diaries kept at the time Delcasse described his view of Trotskyism ‘’Trotskyism represents the most belligerent and unwavering force ever to come out of politics. You cannot reason with it, for it is assured of the justice of its own cause. You cannot negotiate with it, for its sole mission is to destroy you. You cannot defeat it for it holds the position of strength with a vast military, an ever vaster economic base behind it and a vaster still network of contacts with the proletarians of every major country on earth. You can only hope to bleed it dry. The only force capable of defeating Trotskyism today is the idea of the nation. This and only this can hold back the unstoppable tide of the Trotskyite threat, only the nation is a force powerful enough to save France, yet by the same token it is doomed to destroy our allies in Eastern Europe.’’
With the League of Nation’s failure to secure peace its members quickly began the process of mobilising their populations for war against the VSVR. The VSVR had already started this process and as such Trotsky was eager to attack as quickly as possible (before the League states could prepare themselves) so on January 27th 1900 the VSVR started the Great War as Red Army forces crossed over into Russia, Austria-Hungary, Switzerland and France as the grand opening moves of the war began.
A multitude of military plans were presented to the Central Committee prior to the invasion of how the war should be carried out. However one thing the plans agreed on was that Africa could not be saved. In Africa alone the French and British had over 1,000,000 men whilst the VSVR could only muster around 200,000 men, the vast majority of whom where militia volunteers from the new industrial cities in the West. The Red Army would have to concentrate upon Europe. The Russian Imperial Army was as small as it was weak (the smallest of all the Great Powers involved in the war and the more backward). Many Generals proposed an all out assault to smash the Russian Army and topple to Tsar within the first few months of war. However Trotsky favoured to idea of advancing a short way into Russian territory before halting and waiting for the Russians to make their move, meanwhile from the North Red Army units coupled with Swedes (Sweden being the only other Comintern state to join the VSVR from the declaration of war) would make a play for the Russian capital at St Petersburg. To the South two hammer blow offensives would be launched from Silesia and Bavaria. The aim was to crush the Habsburg army (concentrated in and around Vienna), take Vienna and then march onwards into the Hungarian Plain – thus destroying the Habsburg Empire once and for all and within a short period of time. In the West the Red Army would launch an invasion of Northern France with the main focus of the army concentrated around the Parisian area. Unlike the other two continental powers France could still realistically put up a fight against a large scale invasion. It was hoped that by defeating the French standing army early on the reserves could be dealt with without a collapse in the front. At the same time an FWL insurrection was already in the process of breaking out across the Second Republic – it was believed that this would further weaken the French position.
Almost everywhere the emphasis was on delivering the hammer blow to the opposing armed forces before British troops arrived on the continent (if they ever did). Even combined the continental powers were dwarfed in power by the sheer might of the British Indian Army (6 million men). If the Indians could be brought to bear on any front they would most likely overwhelm Comintern opposition.
Faced with the prospect of a total war one might think that the VSVR’s population would be sullen of at least frightened. One would be wrong.
Millions throughout the Republic gathered to celebrate the beginning of what they believed would be the final conflict in human history. In Cologne during Trotsky’s public speech announcing the declaration of war against the League of Nations many old communists were in tears. One man, Kasper Deisler made a speech following Trotsky to the assembled masses. He was 72 years old. As a young man of just 20 he had joined to initial insurrection in 1848 and had fought for two years for the revolution in the Rhineland. Following victory in 1850 he instantly joined the People’s Party. He knew many of the great figures of the revolution personally (having become friends with Friedrich Engels in later years). He claimed that Trotsky’s revolutionary war represented the ultimate ambition of the great grandfather of the revolution Karl Marx. He claimed that had Marx had Trotsky’s resources he would be doing exactly what the Chairman was now. Almost in tears by the end of his speech he sent out a call to arms to every worker, peasant, soldier, sailor and pen pusher on earth to rise up against their masters. The final words of his speech perfectly encapsulated the mood of the Republic in January 1900.
‘’This is the final conflict in human history! Let every man and women take his place. It is time to liberate the human race!’’
For better or for worse the world had just entered the first World War.