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The Year of Returned Hope
Part 9: The Indirect Approach VIII, June 28 – August 2, 1943

In the paradoxical logic of war, everything eventually becomes its opposite, albeit at the risk of simplifying relationships between phenomena. Among these relationships is that between offense and defense. The former is the weaker but with the positive objective, the latter is the stronger but negative form. Clausewitz was keen to stress that they were not opposites: rather, they were complimentary. Offense almost always required defense at some level, and defense was not passively waiting for the attack but rather a shield made out of well-placed blows. The paradoxical logic of war distorts this relationship into that of simple and unambiguous opposites, all to make the point that Clausewitz had also made: that eventually the attacker reaches the ends of his means and no longer has the strength to push forward, for whatever reason.

High summer began with an Italian attempt to pinch off a Soviet salient in the north of the front. It was not an ambitious operation, and as planned would only result in the encirclement of two divisions, but it would significantly shorten the front in the north. It failed as an encirclement in the end, but the Soviets were pushed out the salient in the end, and the front shortened nevertheless. There was another attempt at encircling Soviet forces in the south-center of the front, at Vlasotince, which ended successfully with a Soviet division destroyed. However, the Soviets on the whole were wising up to Italian tactics and able to forestall more significant Italian successes. Italian arms continued to accrue victories, but at an ever greater cost. In the first ten days of July, Italy won yet another string of victories across the front: at Jimbolia, Arad, Kastoria, Mesolongi, Timisoara, Vlasotince, Beius and Vlore. Casualties in aggregate amounted to over six thousand one hundred Italian and over eight thousand seven hundred Soviet soldiers. Trying to push onward was becoming ever bloodier for the Italians.

099-01-TryingtoPinchOffSalient.jpg

The attempt to pinch off the salient, in its early stages.

Germany meanwhile had been pushing into Finland, and so by the 10th of July was in a state of utter confusion as it attempted to deal with the previously unknown strategic state of actually invading a country, something it hadn’t done for over two years. It indeed opened up a second front with the Soviet Union on the Kola Peninsula and on Finland’s eastern border, which some optimistic Italian strategists hoped would mean a diffusion of Soviet strength and possibly even a couple fights between German and Soviet soldiers. It was this, as much as anything else, that threw the German high command into its panic. Thus the deep rear areas of East Prussia and western Latvia were awash with German divisions moving to and fro to no reasonable purpose whatsoever. This Teutonic confusion, and Italian persistence in the Balkans, led to the Soviets siphoning off yet more formations to deal with the Italian menace.

099-02-TeutonicConfusion.jpg

Teutonic confusion, probably over a missing kitten in East Prussia. Everybody can guess where the Soviet divisions are going.

Back in the Balkans, the situation was evolving, albeit slowly and unsurely. In the far north, Bastico accomplished yet another encirclement, trapping three Soviet divisions against the Hungarian border and crushing them. Of these three formations, two were armored divisions, the loss of which must have galled the Soviet commanders. The Italians won victories at Bosilgrad, Jasa Tomic, Curtici, Kresna, Vrsac, Yakoruda, Faget, and Kostinbrod. A loss was registered at Arad. Casualties totaled nearly five thousand eight hundred Italians and nearly ten thousand two hundred Soviets for the remainder of July and into the first two days of August. In addition, Greece had been cleaned up of Soviet divisions, which together with other successful Italian encirclements resulted in another ten or eleven Soviet divisions fully destroyed. Losses remained in favor of the Italians, but the overall strategic situation was not. The Soviets were pressing hard against Italian positions in and around both Kostinbrod and Netanya. The Soviets also accomplished a penetration of the Italian line and were exploiting it, there was even danger of the Italians losing a division. The Italians were striving to close it and turn it into another Italian victory, but the jury remained out.

099-03-August2Situation.jpg

The situation on August 2.

Regardless whether one followed Clausewitz closely, or preferred the paradoxical logic of war, time seemed to be running out for the Italians. The Soviets had formed a coherent front after five straight months of continuous defeat and seemed to be going onto the offensive. It remained to be seen whether the Italians could still muster the strength to close off Soviet salients, if not go full out onto the offensive. What was obvious, however, was that geography was now conspiring against the Italians. Their four armies were stretched across a terrible distance from the Hungarian border to the Aegean Sea, a set up which of course favored the more numerous Soviet formations. Worse yet, additional Soviet divisions were still streaming south from the German front.
 
Oh heck, that crappy AI again. Never seen the German AI acting that terribly though. It's almost as if Paradox patched the infamous 1.3 Japanese AI into Germany with patch 1.4 :D

I assume your CAGs are still punding the Soviets? Do they give you any useful intel on the Russian backyard in the Balkans? May be there is some weakness you can exploit?

Nevertheless, the Italians managed to destroy some two dozend divison until now, probably more, and caused several tens of thousands of Russians casulties. Stalin should be steaming right now, ready to have some of his officers shot ;)
 
myth said:
The Soviets had formed a coherent front after five straight months of continuous defeat and seemed to be going onto the offensive. It remained to be seen whether the Italians could still muster the strength to close off Soviet salients, if not go full out onto the offensive.
You seem to be reaching a point of deminishing returns. If you can't reduce the front, you'll need to start plannning your retreat. That ant's nest in the Baltic certainly won't provide you any respite. And you would still need to block any forces in Turkey.
How are your units org/manpowe holding up, especially compared to the Soviets?

By squinting, I can count 9 HQs, and assume 35-40 divisions on your side. What is the count on the Red Army directly facing you?
 
Bad luck in the frontlines!!!! You need to build more troops and send them to the front. Get a German expeditionary force, a German licence to build armor, build more troops, ..., something to make the soviets retreat.

Also, there are a couple of new infantry divisions in Bari or Taranto (Yes I saw them!!!!). Just send them to the front at all speed!!!!
 
A moment comes when a commander must recognize the ballance of forces and his ability to force a decision. At that moment, he must adjust his forces and his plans before the enemy regains the initiative.

It appears the German failure to engage the Russians has decided this issue. The Russian wave is coming. If you have a strategic reserve, there may be time to commit it and achieve significant operational victory and a forward defence position. If you lose control of the front, you may risk losing Italy.
 
Bad luck in the frontlines!!!! You need to build more troops and send them to the front. Get a German expeditionary force, a German licence to build armor, build more troops, ..., something to make the soviets retreat.

Also, there are a couple of new infantry divisions in Bari or Taranto (Yes I saw them!!!!). Just send them to the front at all speed!!!!

Jeezz, I wish folks would read a few more of the comments, and the answers to them....This is about the fift time somebody is trying to make myth buy armor licenses..He hasn't got the doctrine to use them properly..Its also about the 15'th time somebody tells him to build more troops...
 
Very interesting Myth, It's amazing what a little italian know-how can do to change the tide of battle, Although the news that Soviet Divisions are nearly full-strength when you face them is a little disconcerting. If the AI could properly play germany you would be having a far easier time.

Perhaps an amphibious operation in the crimea? Striking out to get the caucasian oilfields denying those pesky ruskies vital oil supplies? Strategy wise, you'd probably deny them of a major source of their oil for 3-4 months, might be just enough to get a decisive piece of operational success in the Dacian front. I look forward to the next update.
 
Wow. I was thinking you might have time to get around their left flank, but that line looks a bit too solid. I'm interseted to see whether you go for broke or whether you start another strategic withdrawal having bagged so many divisions.
 
Jeezz, I wish folks would read a few more of the comments, and the answers to them....This is about the fift time somebody is trying to make myth buy armor licenses..He hasn't got the doctrine to use them properly..Its also about the 15'th time somebody tells him to build more troops...

I'm sure they have, they are just astounded that anyone would not build armor or more divisions when facing such a dilemna. Even without the doctrines, armor would help. Readers were encouraging him to start getting armor long, long ago. But, I am sure you have heard the saying, stubborn as a mule. :D

Myth is doing quite well and is very knowledgeable, but I think he is taking his alter ego's personna too close to heart.
 
Well, if he retreats again, he can always assault again once the rest of his triangular divisions are built.
 
The front line is in danger of collapsing. You really need to turn your production in favour of land units. I see an infantry div at Taranto. Mare Nostrum is closed, why are you garrisoning ports? Or, maybe, are you preparing some sea invasions?

What about a new retreat? Just for giving Germans the time to find their lost kitten....
 
That infantry at Taranto is his new builds. They stay at home until at full org. Transport fleet is standing by.

But yes, a new retreat, and then next time he lands in Greece, lures the soviets there, and lands another army at istanbul/Constantinople while assaulting out of the line.
 
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Tribal: Nah they haven't, it's far too much of a bother to use them. :p

Baltasar: This is 1.3. And it's probably more than two dozen divisions, maybe between three and four dozen actually. I'm going to do a rough count at the end of the year I think. :p

FrodoB: A lot of my divisions are still in good shape, though an ever increasing number are really quite low on org. As for the Soviets, they probably outnumber me everywhere by this point. :p

The Messenger: Yeah, troops are being made. But there's no use committing formations piecemeal. That won't really make much difference. :p

shepherd352: Control is something I will try hard not to lose. ;)

BlitzMartinDK: Now now, stay calm. :p

Zanziabar: I can't get into the Black Sea without taking Istanbul first, and don't really have the necessary and ready forces for something like that anyway. :p

Jemisi: Yeah they've been really solidifying. :p

Forster: Stubborn? Me? Naaaahhh. :D

ColossusCrusher: Possibly. :p

Gladiator: As has been noted, those forces in Italy's heel are a new army being formed. Problem is that formation takes a while. :p

BlitzMartinDK: Yep. :p

Meastro444: Yeah, more troops are coming, albeit slowly. And thanks! :D
 
A new plan, some divisions of yours retreat back to Athens and hold line there, then you withdraw to a line from stretching from Belgrad to Montenegro, so that when you are ready for a new campaign, you can trap again a lot of Soviets in Greece with you closing the trap with a advance into Thessaloniki from the line.
Or what would be more ambitious, to march from that line directly to the Black Sea...

But anyway, you cannot hold your current line nor advance, so you have to set up a new defensive line, which you can hold for enough time.

Or what of sending a few divisions to aid the Germans, so that they could create a tactical initiative which the Germans then could possibly successfully exploit?
 
How many frackn' airborne units do the Dorchers have? They can't really be German, but some fobby faux tree-hugging substitute.

One suggestion - build a single line of forts at your original jump off point so that if disaster strikes, you can at least save Italy by rushing whatever remains into that line.

Good luck.
 
Jeezz, I wish folks would read a few more of the comments, and the answers to them....This is about the fift time somebody is trying to make myth buy armor licenses..He hasn't got the doctrine to use them properly..Its also about the 15'th time somebody tells him to build more troops...

I know that!!!!!!! :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:It's the second time I tell Myth to build more troops and to get a licence to build armor!!!!!!!!

Don't you read the posts !?!:rofl:

Now, I have been wondering about several things:
1)How many casualties (from both sides) were there since the beginning of the Indirect Approach?
2)What is the status of your manpower?
3) Are you able to attack several Soviet divisions with your air force and then advance? (this is a plan of mine to keep the momentum up)

(God damn it, why do everybody hate me?!?!?!)
 
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I know that!!!!!!! :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:It's the second time I tell Myth to build more troops and to buy a licence to build armor!!!!!!!!

Don't you read the posts !?!:rofl:

Why would he use armour on the Balkans?
Plus as said in the post, which you didn't read, he has no doctrines that would enable enough successful usage of armoured units. ;)

And he has not enough resources to build a lot of infantry, a low IC, not enough manpower and soon to be a lack of officers.

Italy is slowly bleeding dry, victory can be achieved only if the Germans do something.
 
...
Now, I have been wondering about several things:
1)How many casualties (from both sides) were there since the beginning of the Indirect Approach?
2)What is the status of your manpower?
3) Are you able to attack several Soviet divisions with your air force and then advance? (this is a plan of mine to keep the momentum up)

4)(God damn it, why do everybody hate me?!?!?!)

1/ we dont know precisely, but he has bagged quite a few divisions, and even some ARMORED ones! -the general loss ratio reported seems to be about 1 italian to 2-3 soviet (thats deaths) ..at the start of the offence, and now more like 2 italians for 3 soviet..
2/ last time reported at about 900, I think that was ½ a year back
3/..only carrier air being reported used significantly
4/ (does everybody else ALSO hate you?) -I don't know -Are you a bringer of Bad News? :rofl: