1850: The root of all evil
And when the hon. and learned Gentleman told him of revolutions, and of the state of neighbouring countries, he would reply that he knew no cause more fertile in revolutions than that mismanagement of the finances which reduced the revenue of neighbouring States far below the expenditure, and which had brought on national bankruptcy, and in its train national revolution.
State opening and Emperor's speech
The Budget of 1850 contained few surprises, except perhaps that despite the Loyalists' pre-election largesse the public finances were once again on the increase. Rather than reduce the tariff, the Finance Minister announced that the Government had plans for the money.
Despite the military taking up nearly three-quarters of public spending, Japan's dominance was no longer assured. Indeed, the Japanese navy was now took second place to the French fleet, although Imperial admirals could take comfort from the fact that French doctrines placed a much greater emphasis on raids by light ships rather than fleet actions.
Nevertheless, the Cabinet approved plans to expand the navy to restore Japanese pre-eminence. At the urging of Admiral Yamamoto, the new ships were to combine sails with steam, allowing them to operate at long range, yet able to manoeuvre against the wind in battle.
So persuasive was Yamamoto that the Cabinet agreed to build 30 of these new ships on the strength of a single prototype that even the admiral admitted was not fit for military service. Not only did the Government bear the costs of the new ships: it agreed to build a factory to speed up their production.
With unemployment still a major problem, a steamer production plant would not allow Japan to control the production of a military necessity, and also provide work to some of the thousands of unemployed. That the unemployed in question were within a few days' march of Kyoto was the decisive argument in favour of the enterprise.
The news that Britain now fielded a larger army than Japan was the spur for another major investment: a chain of forts along the border of the two powers' territories in the Great Eastlands. The Imperial Army believed that the majority of Britain's brigades were stationed on that continent, and ranged against them were but a handful of Japanese.
It was hoped that the forts would act as a deterrent, but shortly after their commissioning their utility was called into question. In March 1850, the governments of Britain and Mexico signed a treaty of amity and co-operation, quickly augmented with a full-blown military alliance. On the face of it, such a move might seem strange - Japan had fought to free Mexico from British rule half a century ago. However, despite Mexico's violent birth, the interests, culture and commerce she shared with Britain quickly overcame any feelings of friendship towards Japan.
To the Loyalists, the Great Eastland colonies now appeared sandwiched between Britain’s possessions and proxies to the north and south. The Cabinet was divided on the question of increasing the size of the army; the Finance Minister cautioned against taking on such major additional expenditure, while the War Minister was predictably more bellicose. Ultimately, Prime Minister Kuroda decided against a large scale expansion of the army for the time being, citing the Empire’s success against Russia as proof that Japan had sufficient forces to deal with any threat.
Domestic affairs
Despite - or perhaps due to the nature of - their victory in the last election, the Loyalists’ return to power was not greeted with much enthusiasm outside metropolitan Japan. In the Chinese lands, and on the Korean peninsula the Cabinet's fiercely anti-nativist policies were provoking ever greater resistance.
Another reason to fear a possible attack by British forces in the Great Eastlands was the inescapable fact that, however comparable the opposing armies might appear on paper, the Empire could not withdraw troops from much of China without running the risk of losing control of it entirely. What was worse, the turmoil such unrest provoked was spreading as malcontents fled their homes in search of greater freedoms. For now this mainly affected Japan's colonies in the South Seas, but the threat of unrest on the Home Islands themselves was a constant concern.
As a result, command of the troops guarding the capital was a vital appointment, as well as a great honour. In 1850 the new commanding general of the Kyoto garrison was named as Kageaki Kodama, a man with close links to Prime Minister Kuroda.
While General Kodama's impeccable political record might endear him to the Loyalists, he was also a fighting soldier, drilling his men until they could manoeuvre with a speed that left his opponents off-balance and vulnerable. It was therefore ironic that he should be given a posting that was essentially static in nature, but as the ceremonial aspects of the position would bring him into frequent contact with the Emperor himself General Kodama found his choice an easy one.
Foreign affairs
Elsewhere in the world the map of the Mediterranean was being redrawn. In April Scotland joined Modena in declaring war on an ailing Moroccan sultanate.
Meanwhile, the Ottoman Empire surprised an international community that had considered it to be on its last legs following the loss of Istanbul to France in 1818. Somehow, the Porte had contrived to mount a successful invasion of Cyprus, announcing the annexation of the island on August 9th.
While such concerns seemed distant to the Empire, in December events much closer to home stirred the interest of the Japanese public. Sindh, a Japanese ally, had long held ambitions to dominate the whole subcontinent, but had lately been thwarted by Japan's close links with the other Indian power, Madurai. Expansion to the south thus blocked, Sindh turned its attentions north, to Kashmir.
The Second Kashmiri war excited much attention from Japanese liberals, who saw amongst the Kashmiri nobility a more enlightened form of leadership than the despotic Shah Thara of Sindh. When petitions to the Government to intercede on Kashmir's behalf were rebuffed, a few brave individuals set out in person to fight for Kashmiri liberties, while many more provided financial backing. Despite this, the outcome looked certain from the start. Sindh had one of the largest armies in existence, while Kashmir could muster a scant 15,000 men.
The Cleves crisis
Foreign wars apart, 1850 had looked to be a quiet year by recent standards, but this looked set to change in the autumn, when the German state of Cleves announced it was suspending interest payments on its foreign debt and would not allow existing bondholders to redeem their holdings.
Though a shock, in some ways the bankruptcy was to be expected. Cleves had run through three dynasties in a century, including eight years of "Hungarian bondage" under Joachim Thököly, which had left state institutions fragile and revenues poor. By the late 1840s Cleves had been borrowing money just to meet everyday expenses and default had looked inevitable to those who cared to pay attention.
The truth of the matter was that many, including Japanese investors, had not. Clevian bonds had always paid high rates of interest, and to the incautious the reasons behind this had not seemed important. By the time they did, it was too late. Amongst those caught holding Clevian debt were several prominent members of Loyalists and their industrial allies, whose insistent lobbying eventually brought the matter before the Cabinet. Although Kuroda was not a natural interventionist, the argument that Japan would lose standing if she did not act carried the day.
A further obstacle remained: although in western Germany, Cleves was landlocked and on the face of it safe from Japanese attack. However, the Clevian capital, Düsseldorf, bordered on Gelre, Japan's oldest European ally. At first reluctant to collude in an attack on a neighbour, Gelre's monarch, King Arnold II, relented in the face of the need to preserve the small state's strong relationship with Japan.
By late December the First European Corps was ready to sail from its Milanese base to launch the attack.
End of year
The close of the year saw Japan still at peace, but the final preparations for war had already concluded. As delegates for the Diet began to assemble the Loyalists could only hope that a successful European war could help to stem the rising liberal tide.