Round 1
or,
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Timurids
A bunch of Knights chilling in Rhodes, watching their dogs
I think it's fair to say that I'm following a pretty unorthodox strategy. Why would I ditch one of the best military NIs in the game, when I had two Naval ideas; moreover, why did I pick up an NI that favors a moral economy, when it's generally suggested to build up a trade empire as a minor nation? Why am I declaring war on the Ottomans?
To the first point: there are generally two types of military NIs: those that improve combat effectiveness, and those that improve logistics. Elite Regiments definitely falls into the former category, which really isn't what The Knights need to be effective against the Ottomans. They start at 5 quality, receive a morale boost from their government type, and a discipline bonus from the Tongues located in their capital; without ER, I'm still operating with a 133% discipline.
The flipside is that I'll probably have less than 10k manpower for the first century or so; greek provinces are pretty wealthy, but they're sparsely populated, and the constant warfare (I'll be following a scorched earth policy) doesn't help. Neither, of course, will the inquisition... by the time I grab Thrace and get into Turkey, the situation will improve. Assuming, of course, that I'm able to do all of that.
I am going to be at war quite a bit, and when I'm not I'll simply be recovering. I won't have time for silly things like trade, nor will I have the luxury of peaceful aggrandizement; my wealth will come at the expense of others. Guild Privileges helps with both AE and production income, which suits my needs just fine. Keeping naval ideas is important for beating up the Ottoman navy in the beginning of the game, as well as providing some protection against the Barbary pirates, who can be quite nasty as time goes on.
With regards to the second point, the Ottomans will be distracted at the beginning of the game, and I'll be able to grab Morea (at least). They start with the Byzantines as a vassal, but this can be a little weird: sometimes they break free, sometimes they don't; sometimes they get thessaly, sometimes they don't. It's not crucial to our success, but if the Byzantines break free with Thessaly, that means that the Ottomans won't have direct access to Epirus. And of course, the BE is much easier to beat up than the OE. In my current game, I've been quite lucky in this regard (as we'll see).
(NB: the truce is meant to refer to the Battle of Nicopolis, which occurred in 1396, three years before the game's start. It doesn't expire until 1409, and that's too much time to sit around and do nothing, dangit!)
The KoSJ advisers can be really great. The 'Knight Commanders' typically have some problems getting employment, but if you're doing a lot of naval fighting they really make all the difference. Early naval fights are not decided by actually destroying ships, but through destroying the morale of the enemy. In the Mediterranean, you may very well be dodging in and out of ports to attack weaker naval attachments and avoid nasty stacks; the Knight Commanders help on both points. So use them!
Capturing ships will allow you to even the scales against the Ottomans on the water. This can get quite costly, so don't be afraid to delete some ships for the sake of your pocketbook. Jump back and forth between ports so that you can repair any damage you incur, as well as take out minor Ottoman fleets. Asking your Christian neighbors for military access will help here. Finally, maintain vigilance to prevent the Ottomans from landing...
... though some will probably get through ...
... but don't worry! If you can beat the army and keep the seas clear, they won't have anywhere to run; a pretty good way to destroy a couple of units.
There will be a bunch of these events, but it's not a big deal for the Knights with their small size. I'll gladly take the stability hits over dishing out money, for the most part. Some ask for a flat tax, others are proportionate to your income; that is to say, I may only be asked to dole out half a ducat to make the whole thing go away, which isn't a problem.
If the Privateer option is available to you, strongly consider it. It bumps up infamy a bit, but there are some pretty great benefits; especially for the Knights, who always have it available (with Naval at 4). And what are these benefits?
How about 100 ducats? Does that do anything for ya? While the privateers are active there will be pretty frequent string of events giving you money; most are just around 5 to 8 ducats, but occasionally you get bigger amounts. Note that the Privateers are just a general option, and don't have anything to do with the Barbary Pirates; though they do hurt the Ottomans, so I guess it's indirectly related.
Anyway.
I love these events. I used to always go for the 'gold for silence,' which gives you 15 ducats risk-free; however, 10 ducats for a punitive raid is such a bargain! And what are the benefits?
Meh... anything else?
Not bad, not bad.... is that it?
NICE! Of course, there are some risks associated with the raids; you may lose prestige through a failure, and a particularly nasty event where you must pay 50 ducats in ransom or else face a stability hit. But what's life without a little risk? I believe naval / espionage - related NIs help your chances, though I'm not sure.
You want these events, though there is only so much you can do to promote them. Many of the German states will turn Protestant during the Reformation, typically leading to the dissolution of priories. Nothing much you can do about it, though I suppose you could launch a diplomatic offensive as soon as you realize a country has converted, but that's easier said than done. If France converts, you're well and truly screwed.
Now then, the war itself:
As I said earlier, I got really lucky. The Byzantines broke their vassal status early, with Albania remaining independent. Thus, the Ottomans have no direct military access to Epirus; Morea, as a vassal, gets dragged into the war. They are easily occupied. The Timurids actually made it all the way to Thrace, and were actually able to grab Sivas out of the peace deal; though as you can see, they quickly dissolved. In the future the Ottomans will probably have little trouble expanding to the East, though I haven't played the game that far yet. Suffice to say, the Ottomans had enough difficulties that Bulgarian patriots sprung up around the Balkans and were successful in occupying several provinces, even transferring ownership of Macedonia to Albania (not quite sure why, though I suppose it's because they're in the same culture group). The Ottomans will PROBABLY take these provinces back, as time goes on... Albania is a pushover. But it's a nice situation for the time being. To be honest, I've never seen the Ottomans do so poorly in the beginning of the game (nor Albania to have done so well)
And so we wait, until...
The Turks are beat up enough that they just want to stop fighting and go home. And so:
With that, the first round of warfare is done. Here is a quick look at the update geopolitical situation, with The Knights gaining a foothold on the mainland:
I'm left with 9 WE and a few points of infamy. Note that the Byzantines are engaged in the reconquest of Achaea, and are currently fighting the Venetians (who typically guarantee independence). Can anyone guess what this means?