((By-the-by, I'm moving country today so my Internet connection might become erratic.))
The threat of the Tripartite Act is not an anti-American alliance, but something far worse: Eurasian union.
In military terms, the United States enjoys total naval supremacy over the Tripartite Pact. Even if the three imperial powers sought to challenge our nation directly in war - which I do not believe is likely - they would have no means of bringing the battle to our shores. The threat, therefore, is not military, but economic. For in economic terms, Eurasian union would be disastrous for our nation, whose wealth and prosperity is dependent on free trade with Europe and Asia. Eurasian union offers a reprieve for the continental system of Napoleon; it will enable the great powers of Germany, Austria and Russia to shut their markets off to us, as well as the markets of their satellites and possessions. The greatest share of our international trade is derived from Europe and Asia, particularly China. It is from Europe that we receive the specie necessary to finance our trade with China. Eurasian union would not only conspire to deprive us of our European trade and main source of specie, but would also - via Russian influence in China - threaten our very trade in Asia. We must not allow the pathways of prosperity to be strangled by European protectionism. Free and open trade is essential to the continued affluence and development of the United States.
For this reason, we cannot support Germany so long as she maintains her alliance with Russia and Austria. But neither should we oppose her. Germany is a conservative power, and is thus concerned with maintaining the status quo. This places her at odds with her coalition partners, Austria and Russia: the former seeks to restore lost prestige via expansion into the former territories of Turkey-in-Europe, while the latter desires to aggrandise herself by carving up China. Germany – who has few interests in the Balkan, and fewer still in Asia – is unlikely to be complicit in such schemes, not least when they threaten to throw the Balance of Power into upheaval. The contradictory pressures of Austria and Russia reaching outwards and Germany pulling inwards will conspire to tear the Triple Alliance asunder. No foreign exertions – not least from the United States – are necessary to accomplish this. On the contrary, American intervention would galvanise the Triple Alliance in opposition and provide the cohesion that it currently lacks.
As such, we must shed our European entanglements. We must maintain good relations with Germany, but go no further until she abandons her alliance. We must avoid conflict with Russia, who is at any rate adequately constrained in China by British opposition. Above all, we must avoid any commitment that could potentially lead us to a war against any of the European powers. Europe is another world, relevant to the United States only in market terms. We will uphold peace in Europe by removing ourselves from it, and so ensure our prosperity and save our armies from war.
- Marinus van Mayer
The threat of the Tripartite Act is not an anti-American alliance, but something far worse: Eurasian union.
In military terms, the United States enjoys total naval supremacy over the Tripartite Pact. Even if the three imperial powers sought to challenge our nation directly in war - which I do not believe is likely - they would have no means of bringing the battle to our shores. The threat, therefore, is not military, but economic. For in economic terms, Eurasian union would be disastrous for our nation, whose wealth and prosperity is dependent on free trade with Europe and Asia. Eurasian union offers a reprieve for the continental system of Napoleon; it will enable the great powers of Germany, Austria and Russia to shut their markets off to us, as well as the markets of their satellites and possessions. The greatest share of our international trade is derived from Europe and Asia, particularly China. It is from Europe that we receive the specie necessary to finance our trade with China. Eurasian union would not only conspire to deprive us of our European trade and main source of specie, but would also - via Russian influence in China - threaten our very trade in Asia. We must not allow the pathways of prosperity to be strangled by European protectionism. Free and open trade is essential to the continued affluence and development of the United States.
For this reason, we cannot support Germany so long as she maintains her alliance with Russia and Austria. But neither should we oppose her. Germany is a conservative power, and is thus concerned with maintaining the status quo. This places her at odds with her coalition partners, Austria and Russia: the former seeks to restore lost prestige via expansion into the former territories of Turkey-in-Europe, while the latter desires to aggrandise herself by carving up China. Germany – who has few interests in the Balkan, and fewer still in Asia – is unlikely to be complicit in such schemes, not least when they threaten to throw the Balance of Power into upheaval. The contradictory pressures of Austria and Russia reaching outwards and Germany pulling inwards will conspire to tear the Triple Alliance asunder. No foreign exertions – not least from the United States – are necessary to accomplish this. On the contrary, American intervention would galvanise the Triple Alliance in opposition and provide the cohesion that it currently lacks.
As such, we must shed our European entanglements. We must maintain good relations with Germany, but go no further until she abandons her alliance. We must avoid conflict with Russia, who is at any rate adequately constrained in China by British opposition. Above all, we must avoid any commitment that could potentially lead us to a war against any of the European powers. Europe is another world, relevant to the United States only in market terms. We will uphold peace in Europe by removing ourselves from it, and so ensure our prosperity and save our armies from war.
- Marinus van Mayer
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