[size=+1]Election 19: The Ottoman Menace[/size]
Dear Senators,
The Ottoman Empire will always have a permanent casus belli against us. It is an aggressive country on the rise. Their current sultan, Mehmed II, is very angry that we conquered Constantinople, since he wanted her for himself. Sooner or later we are going to fight. We can do it on their terms or on ours. Senators Cornaro, Dandolo and Barbarigo suggest we should discuss the matter, to be better prepared when the time comes. Their armies are stronger and with much higher morale than ours. They are the best army in the world. On the following picture from yesterday (Dec. 1458) you can appreciate about 60k men and 40 ships in just 5 of their 13 provinces. Capitano Generale Fodoroni estimates their forces at over 100k men. Our support limit is between 45k and 50k depending on merchant success. We currently have 40k men. 5k men are the permanent garrisons of Crete and Corfú, not available for combat unless in dire need. Although the quality of our men is not bad, their defensiveness and naval orientation puts them at a great disadvantage.
Vote Yes if you agree or No if you disagree to
all of the statements in 1 and 2 to avoid funky results due to spread of votes:
1. WHEN TO DOW.
1A. As soon as we are ready and conditions are good. CB or not CB.
1B. As soon as we get a CB against them and get ready.
1C. As soon as we get a CB against an ally, that they should honor and get ready (could be earlier than 1B).
1D. Join an alliance at war against them (it might be possible in about 25 years).
1E. Not in the near future (ask again in 25 years), we have more pressing matters.
1F. I rather we do not DoW them for the time being. Wait and be prepared for their DoW.
2. CONDITIONS FOR DOW.
2A. When we are strong militarily. Start building up the military forces.
2B. When we have strong allies (wait until we can join somebody likely to help, it might be possible in about 25 years)
2C. When they are at war with somebody else (wait as long as possible for that according to 1)
2D. When stability is positive (make priority and otherwise do not DoW)
3. GOALS IN OFFENSIVE WAR (increased BBs).
3A. Get one or two selected provinces and money and bail out. Strategic war with few resources and limited goals.
3B. Take everything you can and as many provinces as possible. Total war with every resource and maximum (99% warscore) goals.
3C. Anihilation war. Loot all their provinces and destroy their military to weaken them to the maximum. Do not think about costs. Final goal is erradication.
4. GOALS IN DEFFENSIVE WAR (reduced BBs).
4A. Get one or two selected provinces and money and bail out. Strategic war with few resources and limited goals.
4B. Take everything you can and as many provinces as possible. Total war with every resource and maximum (99% warscore) goals.
4C. Anihilation war. Loot all their provinces and destroy their military to weaken them to the maximum. Do not think about costs. Final goal is erradication.
5. List of Provinces that the OE has in 1459:
Code:
"Europe":
Dobruja Slavonic Orthodox Medium
Rumelia Slavonic Orthodox Poor
Serbia Slavonic Orthodox Poor
Bulgaria Slavonic Orthodox Medium
Macedonia Greek Orthodox Poor
"Asia":
Sochi Caucasian Orthodo Poor
Trabzon Greek Orthodox Poor
Sivas Turkish Sunni Poor
Kastamon Turkish Sunni Medium
Angora Turkish Sunni Rich
Anatolia Turkish Orthodox Medium
Smyrna Greek Orthodox Rich
Antalia Turkish Sunni Poor
Write in order your 5 most desirable provinces. Factor in their strategic value.
6. ALLIES
6A Invite Naples and Tuscany to the war so they start building up their military.
6B Do not invite Naples and Tuscany, since we will have to defend them and they will only give us attrition.
7. Pius II crusade: Pope Pius II has called for a crusade against the Turk, and we will be offered to join (I made the event). What will be our answer?
7A Do not join (+40D, relationship with PAP -50)
7B Join (+5000 INF, CB against TUR for 6 months, relationship with PAP +50)
An example of the vote Pascuale Malipiero "Dux pacificus" would cast if he were allowed (Fodoroni would have a different opinion that he keeps for himself):
1A NO. 1B NO. 1C NO. 1D NO. 1E YES. 1F YES.
2A NO. 2B NO. 2C YES. 2D YES.
3A. 4B.
Macedonia, Smyrna, Bulgaria, Trabzon, Rumelia
6B. 7A.
RESULTS:
Only approved policies showed:
1. WHEN TO DOW.
1A. As soon as we are ready and conditions are good. CB or not CB. (5/8)
1B. As soon as we get a CB against them and get ready. (5/8)
1C. As soon as we get a CB against an ally, that they should honor and get ready. (6/8)
1D. Join an alliance at war against them (it might be possible in about 25 years). (5/8)
So we want to start the war as soon as we see that the conditions are right.
2. CONDITIONS FOR DOW.
2A. When we are strong militarily. Start building up the military forces. (8/8)
2B. When we have strong allies (wait until we can join somebody likely to help, it might be possible in about 25 years) (4/8)
2C. When they are at war with somebody else (wait as long as possible for that according to 1) (7/8)
That they are already at war is strongly desirable. The following one is a tie, so it is up to me:
2B. When we have strong allies (wait until we can join somebody likely to help, it might be possible in about 25 years) (4/8)
3. GOALS IN OFFENSIVE WAR (increased BBs).
A tie between:
3A. Get one or two selected provinces and money and bail out. Strategic war with few resources and limited goals. (3/7)
3B. Take everything you can and as many provinces as possible. Total war with every resource and maximum (99% warscore) goals. (3/7)
4. GOALS IN DEFFENSIVE WAR (reduced BBs).
A tie between:
4A. Get one or two selected provinces and money and bail out. Strategic war with few resources and limited goals. (3/7)
4C. Anihilation war. Loot all their provinces and destroy their military to weaken them to the maximum. Do not think about costs. Final goal is erradication. (3/7)
I will have to decide on the goals according to all the votes, there is a shift towards more aggressive if defensive.
5. Preferred Provinces (Anatolia does not qualify):
Macedonia (8/8), Smyrna (8/8), Bulgaria (7/8), Rumelia (5/8), Dobruja (4/8), Serbia (3/8), Trabzon (1/7)
6. ALLIES
6B Do not invite Naples and Tuscany (5/8)
7. Pius II crusade:
7B Join (7/8)