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Expansion is really good if you plan to plough into Asia, but you don't need to take it until you've taken over Russia.
Defensive is an underrated choice for Sweden. It's basically the 'logistics group', and bad logistics are what will let you down in northern Europe/Asia, especially with Sweden's limited manpower. Quantity is also solid.
I would strongly recommend Quantity for Sweden; if you take it second (and I normally do take a MIL group second) then it allows you to overcome your first major handicap, namely your godawful manpower, while with reduced maintenance it goes some way to addressing the second, namely that your income isn't that great. Higher forcelimits are also always a good thing.
Religious is good if you want a free CB once the Reformation gets going and/or you want to convert all the Orthodox and Sunni stuff to your east.
It you were to take Offensive and Quality you'd also end up with +30% Infantry Combat Ability,+2 Land Leader Shock, +1 Land Leader Fire and 115% Discipline without any policies whatsoever. You might want to take Defensive instead of one of those two for the morale boost, although if you go Reformed and have the Wealth of Nations DLC then you can just focus fervour on War and get free morale anyway.
Played them this week for achievements. I scummed a little to get a decent ruler when independant (3/5/5). So I went Quantity-humanist-offensive-exploration (I was heading to siberia and I wanted new world stuff too). By this time I got what I needed for the achievement so I stopped playing (before 1600).
If I go mil first I always keep up in tech rather than finish the idea. Humanist was nice for reformation and it actually made russian, prussian, and hannoverian accepted cultures which was really, really nice.
