I was interested to evaluate freemarkets vs. central planning as germany. Due to ideology germany can only make one move free markets or have full central planning which might favour the later. Central planning tends to be more effektive in the short run and allows higher tc, but all of this at the expense of high resource consumption. Free markets are more efficient, especially resource wise, and germany is short on them.
After building 10 factories each in Hannover, Cologne, Oppeln and Berlin, building 6 factories in Vienna and building Infra up to 200 in all national provinces germany has 351 base ic which with +15% from techs, +5% from ideas and +20% from ministers gives 492 effectiv ic at free markets and 580 effective ic at full central planning. Resource production at techlevel 1938 is:
1865.66 energy
480.06 metal
7.03 oil
147.65 rares
Regular resource consumption of effective ic at free markets is
984 energy -> 881.66 energy surplus
492 metal -> 11.94 metal deficit
246 rares -> 98.35 rare deficit
Regular resource consumption of effective ic at full central planning is
1160 energy -> 705.66 energy surplus
580 metal -> 99.94 metal deficit
290 rares -> 142.35 rare deficit
The energy could probably be sold at an average trading ratio near 1:1. Selling all of them after Danzig might be a problem due to trade interdiction.
The metal imports can probably be covered by initial trades in case of free markets, additional trades would likely have trading ratios better than 1:1.2. Importantly interdiction is no problem, hungary and sweden have plenty metal.
The rares are germanies real weakness. There are some intial trades at a trade ratio 1:1, new trades however must tolerate trading ratios of 1:1.2 and worse. The average trading ratio would likely be slightly better than 1:1.2 at free markets and slightly worse at central planning.
Germany needs to import oil and preferable before danzig. A stockpile of 300 oil per day times 3 years seem reasonable. An average trading ratio of 1:1.15 seems reasonable. For the following calculations i will assume all trading ratios to be 1:1 for reasons of simplicity.
Free markets: Over three years 63479.52 $(3 x 360 x 881.66/15) are earned from energy. Over three years 1719.36 $(3 x 360 x 11.94x2/15) need to be paid for metal. Over three years 63281.52 $(3 x 360 x (300-7.03)x3/15) need to be paid for oil. As imports of rares become problematic after Danzig a stockpile of ~3 years till mid 1942 needs to be accumulated till Danzig, so imports need to double the daily deficit. Importing needed rares will costs 56649.6 $(3 x 360 x 98.35x2x4/15). That totals to 58170.96 $ to be paid till Danzig.
Full central planning: Over three years 50807.52 $(3 x 360 x 705.66/15) are earned from energy. Over three years 14391.36 $(3 x 360 x 99.94x2/15) need to be paid for metal. Over three years 63281.52 $(3 x 360 x (300-7.03)x3/15) need to be paid for oil. Importing needed rares will costs 81993.6 $(3 x 360 x 142.35x2x4/15). Thats totals to 108858.96 $ to be paid till Danzig.
At one step free markets and initial ideas germany can produce 2.288 $ per icd, at full central planning and initial ideas it is 1.76 $ per icd. So at free markets 25424.37 icd or 23.54 ic over 3 years need to be paid, at full central planning it is 61851.68 icd or 57.27 ic over 3 years. free markets save 33.73 ic at importing resources, but central planning gives additional 88 icd, so this leaves an advantage of 54 ic for centraplanning. At full hawk lobby not having the one step free markets will increase icd per military units by 10.8%, so if spending 250 ic at average at building military units the advantage of central planning halves to 27 ic. Supplies and reinforcements make no difference, repairs only make a small difference in favour of free markets. Most money expenses are reduced, this increases the 27 ic to something bigger. Unless upgrades or global resource shortness become relevant central planning will be superior and certainly suits a tc heavy strategy with huge armoured forces. Importing the double of the a daily deficit of 98.35 rares will likely exhaust the world market. So for germany it is probably wise to either build factories and go the one step free markets or go for full central planning and build near no factories.
PS: My figures are noted unreasonably precise. In practice the simplyfictions i made will cause big discrepancies to those figures.
After building 10 factories each in Hannover, Cologne, Oppeln and Berlin, building 6 factories in Vienna and building Infra up to 200 in all national provinces germany has 351 base ic which with +15% from techs, +5% from ideas and +20% from ministers gives 492 effectiv ic at free markets and 580 effective ic at full central planning. Resource production at techlevel 1938 is:
1865.66 energy
480.06 metal
7.03 oil
147.65 rares
Regular resource consumption of effective ic at free markets is
984 energy -> 881.66 energy surplus
492 metal -> 11.94 metal deficit
246 rares -> 98.35 rare deficit
Regular resource consumption of effective ic at full central planning is
1160 energy -> 705.66 energy surplus
580 metal -> 99.94 metal deficit
290 rares -> 142.35 rare deficit
The energy could probably be sold at an average trading ratio near 1:1. Selling all of them after Danzig might be a problem due to trade interdiction.
The metal imports can probably be covered by initial trades in case of free markets, additional trades would likely have trading ratios better than 1:1.2. Importantly interdiction is no problem, hungary and sweden have plenty metal.
The rares are germanies real weakness. There are some intial trades at a trade ratio 1:1, new trades however must tolerate trading ratios of 1:1.2 and worse. The average trading ratio would likely be slightly better than 1:1.2 at free markets and slightly worse at central planning.
Germany needs to import oil and preferable before danzig. A stockpile of 300 oil per day times 3 years seem reasonable. An average trading ratio of 1:1.15 seems reasonable. For the following calculations i will assume all trading ratios to be 1:1 for reasons of simplicity.
Free markets: Over three years 63479.52 $(3 x 360 x 881.66/15) are earned from energy. Over three years 1719.36 $(3 x 360 x 11.94x2/15) need to be paid for metal. Over three years 63281.52 $(3 x 360 x (300-7.03)x3/15) need to be paid for oil. As imports of rares become problematic after Danzig a stockpile of ~3 years till mid 1942 needs to be accumulated till Danzig, so imports need to double the daily deficit. Importing needed rares will costs 56649.6 $(3 x 360 x 98.35x2x4/15). That totals to 58170.96 $ to be paid till Danzig.
Full central planning: Over three years 50807.52 $(3 x 360 x 705.66/15) are earned from energy. Over three years 14391.36 $(3 x 360 x 99.94x2/15) need to be paid for metal. Over three years 63281.52 $(3 x 360 x (300-7.03)x3/15) need to be paid for oil. Importing needed rares will costs 81993.6 $(3 x 360 x 142.35x2x4/15). Thats totals to 108858.96 $ to be paid till Danzig.
At one step free markets and initial ideas germany can produce 2.288 $ per icd, at full central planning and initial ideas it is 1.76 $ per icd. So at free markets 25424.37 icd or 23.54 ic over 3 years need to be paid, at full central planning it is 61851.68 icd or 57.27 ic over 3 years. free markets save 33.73 ic at importing resources, but central planning gives additional 88 icd, so this leaves an advantage of 54 ic for centraplanning. At full hawk lobby not having the one step free markets will increase icd per military units by 10.8%, so if spending 250 ic at average at building military units the advantage of central planning halves to 27 ic. Supplies and reinforcements make no difference, repairs only make a small difference in favour of free markets. Most money expenses are reduced, this increases the 27 ic to something bigger. Unless upgrades or global resource shortness become relevant central planning will be superior and certainly suits a tc heavy strategy with huge armoured forces. Importing the double of the a daily deficit of 98.35 rares will likely exhaust the world market. So for germany it is probably wise to either build factories and go the one step free markets or go for full central planning and build near no factories.
PS: My figures are noted unreasonably precise. In practice the simplyfictions i made will cause big discrepancies to those figures.
