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I'm also going with Bulgaria. Propsto IFWanderer for pointing it out.

Look how Bulgaria has managed to take provinces near Constantinople from the Byzzies, who have otherwise grown a lot from their weak starting position. Don't think an AI is capable of that.

I did originally think the player was Byzantium due to aforementioned blobbing, but they've also lost quite a few provinces, and expanded in directions that I doubt a player would choose (taking Cyprus before consolidating Greece?).
 
Lithuania
 
He is Bulgaria due to careful and steady expansion. With an Alliance with Hungary obviously.

Here's why in my opinion:
1. Hungary AI could've easily inherited Sicily, its not unusual for the AI to do it.
2. Bulgaria didn't loose any land, but instead it expanded with attacks of opportunity worthy of a human player. Against: Byzantines, Naples (maybe in the war between Hungary - Naples), Serbia (split between Hungary and Bulgaria).

Now on the other hand the player might be Hungary because of how Naples has been split.
1. Notice how Naples lost Sicily to France, and it's provinces in Greece.
2. If I consider the player being Hungary, than the way it might have taken Naples is through claims during a rebellion or a war of Naples. Reason? Hungary has part of the Papal States, and the AI in my opinion doesn't usually go after the Pope like that.
 
It doesn't. Look at the start again. That county next to Rome that Hungary took is a slightly different colour to the Papal States,

Damn, I did not see the difference in colour. In that case, he is Bulgaria!!!!!
 
Sorry for not responding in a while. I am indeed.... BULGARIA!

Started as Ivaljo like Wanderer said. He really is a fun start. Somehow the Golden Horde converted to Orthodox, so I've been allied with them the whole time. I had some more Greek lands, but the new Emperor (the son of the last Asen king of Bulgaria, born the year I started) managed to take them back. My new goal is to inherit Hungary and all their blobby goodness.

I'm not entirely sure how Hungary got a hold of Sicily, to be honest. They do start out in an alliance, and I guess one of the Hungarian kings inherited a claim and pushed for it. At some point they also flipped culture and became Croatian. That bit up in Lithuania must've been from a holy war or something. Sadly, they're about to lose Sicily in a Jihad, and I can't help much cause I just got whooped by the Greeks.

Ilk had a liberation revolt win pretty early on, and the original liberator is still alive. They've been whittled down ever since, and they're probably gonna die out within ten years. They're still Nestorian, to their credit.

Aztecs haven't really done anything this game. Norway won Andalusia in a Crusade (hence the grey splotch in Iberia), they've been losing ground in England, and even Mali (!!!) managed to snatch some of Mauretania. I was hoping they'd really mess things up, but they've disappointed me this time.

Anyway, sorry for holding things up. Can't wait to see what other people come up with.
 
This should be a good one.

Started 1066, current year 1234.

CqrVZFr.png
 
You're NOT France !

I'll go for Wales, because I'm not used to seeing them alive after 150 years.