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A Germanic ruler has to rule Scotland, as far as I understand. So that effectively means an Anglo-Saxon or a Norseman. When I first saw the change happen, it was an Anglo-Saxon province in Lothian that became Scottish first.
Also, play on the beta patch. The current 2.2 proper patch converts Pictish to Pictish when the event fires. Needless to say, that doesn't have a huge impact on the game...