I’ve tried it lots of times and I’ve come to the conclusion posted earlier. But there is some randominess, but it’s a really minor influence: Sometimes they DOW me before I take Liverpool and sometimes just before that. The times they didn’t I don’t know what would have happened since my Barbarossa is launched only 1 – 1.5 months after Sealion.There has to be some randomness involved as i have done this probably a dozen times or more with no predictable pattern
But threat and aggressiveness, conquer all of Europe, have far more influence regarding a Soviet DOW when invading the UK.