• We have updated our Community Code of Conduct. Please read through the new rules for the forum that are an integral part of Paradox Interactive’s User Agreement.
There has to be some randomness involved as i have done this probably a dozen times or more with no predictable pattern
I’ve tried it lots of times and I’ve come to the conclusion posted earlier. But there is some randominess, but it’s a really minor influence: Sometimes they DOW me before I take Liverpool and sometimes just before that. The times they didn’t I don’t know what would have happened since my Barbarossa is launched only 1 – 1.5 months after Sealion.
But threat and aggressiveness, conquer all of Europe, have far more influence regarding a Soviet DOW when invading the UK.
 
Regarding the M-R Pact:

I recently ran a game with a very accelerated timetable (defeat France by February of 39), and I chose to ignore the M-R Pact after pushing claims on Memel and First Vienna Award.

I screwed my timetable up on Barbarossa (I wasn't ready with enough panzers for a July 39 attack), so I was going to wait until the weather cleared in 40 to attack. For those counting, the Soviets still DOWed Finland in the Winter War sometime December of 39, despite no M-R Pact in play.

Of course, since half the Red Army was mired on the Mannerheim Line, I launched it a bit early. Leningrad was pretty in February of 1940. :)
 
Regarding the M-R Pact:

I recently ran a game with a very accelerated timetable (defeat France by February of 39), and I chose to ignore the M-R Pact after pushing claims on Memel and First Vienna Award.

I screwed my timetable up on Barbarossa (I wasn't ready with enough panzers for a July 39 attack), so I was going to wait until the weather cleared in 40 to attack. For those counting, the Soviets still DOWed Finland in the Winter War sometime December of 39, despite no M-R Pact in play.

Of course, since half the Red Army was mired on the Mannerheim Line, I launched it a bit early. Leningrad was pretty in February of 1940. :)

What about the Baltic States?
 
I don't think the Soviet AI wants to DOW them, because it is programmed under the assumption that it gets them for free.

But to be honest, every time I ignore the M-R Pact, I am planning a speed conquest of the Soviets, so the AI may simply not have enough time.