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From the wiki, enforced demands by heretics:
  • -30 prestige
  • 2% reform desire added +0.1% reform desire for each province occupied
  • Adds "Heresy" modifiers to occupied provinces for 2 years: -40% manpower, -33% tax +2 revolt risk
Negotiation with heretics after they've occupied one province is actually not too bad:
  • -50 prestige
  • 1% reform desire added
 
Generally I always try to defeat the rebels if I have half a chance. I've already played the session and will post the report this evening, but
the rebels kicked my meager army's butt.
 
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Wales has now taken 15 loans. Each is only about 4 ducats but it's still hard for our fragile economy. Plus there's an unbeatable 9000 men spreading their Socinian heresy in our newly gained province of Gloucestershire. I try take on the heretics with my 5000 men. Their 9000 even includes 3000 cavalry. But I have Gwyn Owen (3/3/2/-) leading my men and we actually suffer fewer casualties than the heretics, but in the end we're still forced to retreat and rebuild. Gloucestershire falls to the heretics and we accept their demands, losing all the prestige we gained during the independence war, plus Gloucestershire now has -33% tax, -40% manpower and +2 revolt risk for 2 years. We immediately begin coring and institute harsh treatment.

As an independent nation, we are now free to pick our own rivals. Cornwall and England are our only options but that suits me just fine.

We already have a royal marriage and alliance with Scotland. I arrange a royal marriage and alliance with France and, after improving relations, a royal marriage and alliance with Munster in Ireland.

Wales got even more aggressive expansion in the peace deal, so the remaining Irish nations of Leinster, Tyone and Connacht all join the coalition against us. (We at least have claims on Leinster and Tyrone's Ulster.) England warns us not to go to war with any nations. No matter - with all other potential targets in a coalition against me, England are my main enemy anyway.

By September most of our loans have come due and we repay them with the money given to us by England in the peace. We now have only 5 loans left.

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In 1461 England agrees a peace with France, ceding Calais and Norman Caux to France. But a closely fought victory in a battle against Cornwall in Kent gives England a window to start rebuilding their army.

The English regency ends and Anne I becomes Queen of England. She allies England with the Hansa.

France integrates two of their vassals, Armagnac and Auvergne. Blessed with a strong economy, France starts providing us with a subsidy of 1 ducat per month to further the fight against England. This helps to repay the remaining loans fairly quickly.

The new English army and pretender rebels in Northumberland force Northumberland to accept a white peace. And with unfettered English and Portuguese armies bearing down on it, Cornwall is also forced to accept a white peace.

With England at peace again, they re-integrates their French vassals, Normandy and Guyenne.

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The subsidies from France come to an end, but the loans have all been repaid and we can slowly grow the merchant fleet. We even hire an advisor, a theologian (+1 admin point) who gives -3 revolt risk. Sounds good in theory but with English nationalism in Gloucestershire, the advisor doesn't affect the minimum revolt risk, and I'm constantly afraid of another large revolt that my small army can't handle.

But as much as I fear revolts, England are having a worse time of it. Breton nationalist rebel in Amor. Eventually 26000 men will have flocked to their cause, and this is too much for the rebuilding English army. The rebels eventually win back independence for Brittany. With England as their rival, we arrange a royal marriage and alliance with them. We are now at our full number of diplomatic relations: we have royal marriages and alliances with France, Scotland, Brittany and Munster.

Meanwhile our diplomats have fabricated a claim on the (Welsh) Marches in England, just waiting for another opportunity when England is weak.

In 1463 we research Basic Financial Instruments (diplo tech 5), improving our trade a fair bit. Surprisingly we're now actually becoming a bit competitive with England in the London trade node.

Gloucestershire is cored and English becomes an accepted culture within Wales.

In 1466 we research the Arquebus (military tech 6) while England is still stuck with military tech 4. We also complete research of Constable and Temples (admin tech 5). Events give us a stability drop (back down to 0) and +2 national revolt risk. And then General Gwyn Owen, hero of the independence war, dies.

France integrates their last remaining vassal, Bourbonnais, and then breaks their alliance with us as they have a "domineering attitude" towards Wales. Without France to look out for us, I start scouting for a new alliance. Savoy looks like a growing power and have rivalled England so I arrange a royal marriage and alliance with them. Since we still have the royal marriage with France, we're one over our available diplomatic relations slots, but we need strong allies to ward off both England once they've rebuilt and the coalition of British and Duth minor nations.

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Our seventh barque is built, finally completing the mission we took back in 1444. Our new mission is to solidify Papal relations - this should be a little easier.

Scotland declares a war of conquest against Northumberland. They don't call us in to help - and they don't need it. Northumberland have been through a succession of pretenders and can't defend itself against Scotland.

Pretty much as soon as the France-England truce is up, France again declares war on England to recover the continental territories still held by the English. England's army is back up to 18000 men and they have Portugal, Castille (25000) and the Hansa as allies but France is still very strong with their own army of 54000.

Northumberland is occupied and annexed by Scotland.

In 1470 we research Embassies (diplo tech 6). Our relations with the Papal States reaches +100 which completes that mission. I take a new mission to improve our prestige thinking I might be able to accomplish it in an imminent war with England. Our diplomats are now trying to improve relations with those in the coalition against us.

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King Einion's heir, Maredudd (5/2/1), falls ill. We have no money for a healer, just prayer. The boy dies and we continue praying - this time for a better heir.

England's army is down to 1000 men and so I take the opportunity to declare war against them for the conquest of the Marches. Scotland, Brittany and Savoy will all join. Only Portugal joins on England's side.

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I raise war taxes as our ecomomy struggles with full military maintenance. In the Battle of Wessex, 5000 Welshmen defeat 1000 Englishmen to eliminate the last remaining English forces.

While we besiege the Marches, England rebuilds a bit of an army. When the Marches finally falls to us, we've recruited an additional infantry regiment and our 6000 take on their 4000 in the Battle of Gloucestershire. It's a convincing Welsh win and we chase down the remnants of the English army, destroying them in the Battle of London, ensuring that England has to once again rebuild from scratch.

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Meanwhile a romantic encounter for King Einion results in an heir, Gruffydd (6/5/4), though he only has a weak claim due to the circumstances of his conception. No matter his birth, Gruffydd certainly has the potential to lead Wales to great things. My prayers have indeed been answered!

Our new allies, Savoy, give us 2.5 ducats per month in subsidies. With this influx of "wealth" we add a cavalry to our army, though this does push us over our force limit for now. But this allows us to besiege a province and still have a roaming 5000-man army at the same time. We also hire a new general, Dafydd Meredith (5/1/2/-).

Oxfordshire falls to us and Lancashire falls to Scotland. Cornwall opportunistically declares war on England for Wessex.

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And Wales gets a second Cardinal into the Curia, making us the Papal controller. However our first Cardinal is now 71 so our hold on the Curia may not last long.

In 1474 we research The Limber (military tech 7), allow us to build artillery, though our economy can't support any more units let alone artillery. London falls to us and we negotiate a peace: The Marches for Wales and Lancashire for Scotland.

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Grufydd looks like a really nice heir! God bless the bastard prince :)

Anyway great job enlarging Wales even further. Things are definitely looking better and better for Wales. And with that Scottish alliance it seems like England will have a hard time ever reconquering the lands you've taken from them.
 
You... shouldn't have given that province to Scotland... remember, never border your allies! Although I've heard it's less weird than in 1.5 now.

Yeah, you're probably right, but I haven't noticed any problems with with my relations with Scotland yet. It seems to only be an issue when they get a claim or mission for your lands, and that seems unlikely to come up while we still have England around.
 
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Our second war against England is over and the Marches are now ours.

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We immediately begin coring the Marches and institute harsh treatment to bring the 15% revolt risk down to 5%.

Most nations have now left the coalition against us despite Wales picking up some more aggressive expansion from the last peace.

And then we pick up the second Administrative idea, Adaptability, which reduces core creation cost by 25%. Too late I realize that I should have just waited a month before coring the Marches so we'd get at least some use out of our ideas, but fortunately we're fairly flush with monarch points.

The war wasn't too bad for the economy. Wales only has 1 loan which I just repay with some of the ducats won off England. We can even use the left-over money to start our first building. With our small tax base, trade seems like a better option for improving the economy, so I start on a Marketplace in Gloucestershire. As money comes in I start a second Marketplace in our capital, Gwynedd.

In 1475, Munster, our Irish ally, calls us into their conquest of Connaught. Munster are also allied with the other Irish minors, Tyrone and Leinster, but Connacht is allied with our other allies, Scotland and Brittany, as well as Cornwall. I'm tempted to accept anyway and attack Cornwall, but Scotland has a comparable army to us, and fighting Scotland would make us vulnerable to a rebuilt English army. So I decline the call-to-arms. Naturally Scotland calls us in to the war on their side and I join.

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With no transports I have no intention of actually helping to defend Connacht. But my merchant fleet is stronger than any of the enemy navies, so I pick them off and then resume trade. Connaught is soon occupied by Munster.

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I never did get the 50 prestige that I needed for my mission during the last war against England. The printing of the bible in Wales gives us 25 prestige, pushing us just over 50 and enough to complete the mission. Together with an earlier event, our stability is now up to +2. Our new mission is to protect against Cornwall. We need 8 land regiments, and with our increased land force limit from taking Marches this isn't a problem even when Savoy cancels their subsidies to us. We build our first artillery and complete the mission. Next is a mission to fabricate a claim on English Derby, which I do to complete the mission. Then the next mission is to take Cornwall. Unfortunately we're on the same side of the war against Munster, so that will just to have wait. Meanwhile, I get all the claims I can for the neighbouring English provinces.

The Marches are cored, though the nationalist revolt risk remains a concern.

In 1479 we research Naval Ambition (diplo tech 7), though I don't have any real colonial ambitions here, and Three Field Rotation (admin tech 6). Stability is hit by an event (now +1) and National Epic expires, neutering our prestige gains, and Wales gets +2 revolt risk. But then a third Welsh-supported Cardinal is promoted to the Curia! Our first one is 77 now, but it means we should remain Curia controller for a while now.

England is still officially at war against France, though all their continental holdings have been occupied for ages and England is making no moves to retake them. And Cornwall continues its war against England. At one point they manage to occupy both Wessex and Kent, but the English army rebuilds until it can challenge Cornwall again. I have a number of claims I might press against them and our truce has expired, so I declare war. Scotland and Brittany are already in the war against Munster so won't join, but Savoy will.

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Portugal once again joins on England's side. The decisive battle of the war is at Gloucestershire where 8,000 Welsh fight 5,000 English. England have low prestige and are way behind on military technology. Wales loses only 500 men while the English army is completely destroyed. I can now split our army into a besieging army and a roaming army. Savoy resumes our subsidies (at 2.8 ducats per month) greatly easing the burden of the wartime economy.

Our eldest Cardinal dies, so we're back down to 2 Curia Cardinals.

Oxfordshire and Derby fall to us in quick succession, and wanting to keep aggressive expansion and English nationalism in check, and resume the economic growth, I agree to a peace, just taking Oxfordshire.

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As with our other conquests, I being coring Oxfordshire and institute harsh treatment. Oxfordshire is a 7 base tax province and so our best province so far.

With heretics taking over their occupied territories, Cornwall bows out of the war against England with a white peace. England also end the war against France, giving up their remaining continental holdings.

England joins the coalition against us, though now it's only England and Cornwall, our rivals, in the coalition. Both of them also have an alliance with Castille, so even when Cornwall white peaces out of the war with Munster, I'm reluctant to attack them. If I attack them, Castille will likely take over as controller, bringing in all their allies which is probably more than I can handle and not something I'm willing to risk with all these gains I've made. I settle for improving the nation with buildings and picking up some advisors.

I abandon my ally Brittany when France attacks them. France is big now and it would be suicidal to go against them. As Curia controller, I break the royal marriage with Brittany to marry and ally Denmark instead.

We complete the coring of Oxfordshire but despite harsh treatment it is hit by an English nationalist revolt. The 12,000 rebels attack our 8,000 who were on reduced maintenance.

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The Welsh army breaks and retreats to rebuild. Fortunately my allies, Scotland, have 11,000 under their great General Duff Drummond (4/4/1/-) who take care of the nationalists for me, and kindly occupy Oxfordshire to reduce the revolt risk so I don't have to.
 
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Savoy calls us into their war for the conquest of Friesland. I accept, though I have no intention of supporting him with troops as I still have no transports. Friesland is defended by the Holy Roman Emperor - Austria - and their vassals.

Despite a good start, Savoy loses a few close battles and soon begins to lose ground. As the war turns against them and no aid comes from us, they cancel their subsidies to us.

The war between France and Brittany ends with Brittany being annexed by France. France is looking really imposing now.

In 1485 we research Noble Republic (admin tech 7) which allows us a new idea group. With plenty of military monarch points and being way ahead on military technology (we've hit the 999 cap without being able to research the next tech), I know I'll get a military idea group. I decide on Quality Ideas, getting the Private to Marshal idea immediately to get a 10% infantry improvement since almost our entire army is infantry at the moment. This also gives us +2.5% discipline from our (generic) national ideas.

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We still have a royal marriage with France, but despite my best efforts, they're not going to ally us. So as Curia controller, I break that royal marriage and make an alliance and royal marriage with Castille.

In 1487 we're hit by the death of our great ruler, Einion II Aberffraw (4/4/6). His heir is only 14 and so a regency council will rule for a year.

Savoy's war against Austria (in which we provided only moral support) ends with harsh terms against Savoy - they release both Cleves and Luxembourg as sovereign states.

Gruffydd IV Aberffraw (6/5/4) comes of age and is made King of Wales. I want to end the pointless war in Ireland before our time is up. I take out loans and build 6 transports to ship an army across to Ireland.

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But then France declares war on Savoy. Savoy has a number of allies that will help and so, despite already being in the Munster war, I agree to join, hoping that France can be stopped without my involvement.

In 1488 we research Trade Depot and Drydock (diplo tech 8) and Pike and Shot (military tech 8).

I land a 6,000-strong army in Munster but then the French navy is sighted.

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The transports retreat back to Wales but the merchant fleet is caught by the French in the Celtic Sea and is obliterated. With our army besieging Munster, Munster agrees to a white peace with Scotland, ending the war and stranding our troops in Ireland. A carefully arranged operation brings our transports into Connaught (with military and fleet access) to evacuate the troops. But this ill-advised excursion to Ireland has cost us - we've lost our entire merchant fleet and have now taken out 5 loans. With France focusing all its efforts against Savoy, I can try repair the damage we've taken to our economy.

We lose another Cardinal from the Curia and so Poland becomes the new Curia controller with two Cardinals.

Savoy's allies haven't really helped them and they eventually surrender to France. Savoy loses Metz and Cuneo to France and Venice loses Brescia to Milan. In addition Savoy releases Genoa as a sovereign state.

In 1493 we research Workshop and Courthouse (admin tech 8). In 1494 our last remaining Cardinal in the Curia dies. We pick up the Quality Education idea from our Quality ideas which gives us +5% army morale recovery.

And then we reach 11 Nov 1494, fifty years on from our start date. Could have risked more to grow bigger, but being England's enemy always made me feel like I was in a very precarious position. But as it is we've won our freedom from England and expanded from 2 to 5 provinces at the expense of our former overlords. Score-wise we've even overtaken them (we're 24th, England is 26th).

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Wales and the British Isles at the end of our time...
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Elsewhere

What happened to Sweden?
In 1445 (less than a year in) they declared their independence to try break free from their personal union with Denmark. They got to a +23 war score before a white peace was agreed in 1449. This resulted in them remaining in the personal union until the current date.

Europe in 1494
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Scores
I know scores are a bit wonky and not necessarily the best indicator of power, but here they are nonetheless...
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As noted before Wales is 24th.

My next choice

The Mamluks
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The Mamluks have lost Syria but conquered the Dulkadirids in the highly contested eastern edge of Anatolia. They are also defending in a war against Hedjaz and appear to be winning quite easily. Historically the Dulkadirids proved a flashpoint that led to war with the Ottoman Empire. First Egypt and then eventually the rest of the Mamluk Sultanate was conquered and the Mamluks became Ottoman vassals.

Lithuania
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Lithuania is under a personal union with Poland, and Poland's alliance with Denmark has dragged Lithuania into a war with Muscovy. Normally a very dangerous foe, it looks like this time the Polish-Danish alliance might have the upper-hand against Muscovy. Historically Lithuania relied increasingly on Poland's support as Lithuania defended itself against Muscovy in a number of wars. The personal union with Poland eventually resulted in the formation of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1569.
 
You could play Lithuania, but your options are a) sit on your ass for 50 years while poland throws you around or b) declare independence at an opportune time and get smacked around by Muscovy/Poland every chance they get. So with that in mind, I'd support playing the Mamluks, and trying to expand into Arabia/Weaken or destroy the Turks. You should have sufficient resources to at least attempt either (especially as it seems the Ottomans have been hit hard by the 1.6 rebels)

Nice AAR by the way!
 
Well on one hand, you do have more possibilities for expansion with the Mamluks. But you'd have to be careful to avoid pissing off the Ottomans while that 0/0/0 ruler of yours is alive -- although they have lost a lot of land, notably to the Byzantines. Not to mention the grueling tech disadvantage that comes with said ruler on top of Muslim tech group already placing you at a disadvantage vis a vis the Ottomans. Depending on circumstances and random events you could either grow immensely or suddenly collapse. With Lithuania though unless you decide to declare independence it might prove pretty boring as many decisions are off the table being under a PU -- but in the short term you do have a very decent (Polish) king with regard to stats.

As far as diverging from history is concerned, the Mamluks strike me as an interesting choice (though again, this isn't a vote) as not only can you keep them alive but also weaken the Ottomans, who might lose Greece to the Byzantines, which itself could impact the balance of power in Europe, the most immediate consequence being the continued existence of Byzantium, although the Byzantines might simply take the Ottomans' place as Blob of the Balkans and carry out much of the latter's historical role. Lithuania could work towards achieving similar things with regard to Muscovy, for example prevent them from becoming Russia, or have Lithuania reverse the balance of power with Poland. Whichever one you choose ask yourself who (other than yourself) has to gain from your decisions and how much it will change the world map. On that note I love what you did with Wales.
 
I admit when I first rolled up the choices, I was immediately drawn towards the Mamluks. Only played with Muslims once before and the thought of fighting another independence war so soon doesn't really appeal. Unless someone can make a strong case for Lithuania, I'll start on the Mamluks this weekend.
 
I'm all for the Mamluks, I think the possibilities of changing the landscape of the world are a little greater with them then it is with Lithuania.
 
I'm playing this turn with the 1.6.1 patch. Notably aggressive expansion decays a lot faster and nationalism is a bit easier to deal with compared to 1.6.

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The Mamluks were originally the military caste of Ayyubid Egypt that rose to power after a French-led crusade into the area in the 13th century. They held Egypt, the Levant and beyond until they were conquered by the Ottomans in 1517 and became an Ottoman vassal. At the time the Ottomans had extended their empire to include Hungary, and Austria was continually under threat from them. The Ottoman Empire continued to grow by conquering nations in North Africa and the Middle East.

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So the goal for the 50-year turn is to eventually vassalize the Ottomans or at least see them gone from the map. The Ottomans have lost a lot of ground in the Balkans already to Byzantium, Venice, Epirus and Achea. The small Anatolian nations of Candar in the north and Karaman and Ramazan in the south still survive untroubled by the Ottomans. Although the Mamluks have conquered Dulkadir on the border with the Ottomans, they've lost territory to Ramazan and an independent Syria has appeared.

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The Mamluks are in the Muslim tech group and are currently at Admin tech 5, Diplo tech 4, Military tech 5. (For comparison we ended on 8-8-8 with Wales.) The Ottomans are in the Ottoman tech group and are at 5-5-6, that military tech 6 giving them access to their first cavalry upgrade. So to take stock with a unit comparison: our infantry is 4 pips vs 5 (the Ottomans have an extra pip on morale offence) and cavalry is 4 pips vs 7 pips. Researching military tech 6 will cut that cavalry advantage to a single pip (again a pip on morale offence, and so effectively equal units as long as I'm on the offence). Our ruler is Sultan al-Hasan II al-Said (0/0/0), an incompetent leader that can only make our current tech disadvantage harder to overcome. He is 53 so hopefully he will die soon (his heir is of age and a 2/2/2). He makes a passable general (-/2/3/-) and he will lead our armies to increase the likelihood of a swift demise.

For our finances we start by making a small profit (2 ducats) each month, but have five 53 ducat loans out. Almost all of our 16 regiments are mercenaries. Our two merchants are set up in the only sensible locations with the Gulf of Aden steering trade for us to collect in Alexandria. Despite having almost all the territory in the Alexandria trade node, we only have 30% of the trade power due to our small trade fleet. We fire our only advisor, Spy Master 'Abd al-Rahman Nasuh (+1 diplo power/month, +10% spy offence); we'll hire a military advisor as soon as there's one available we can afford.

We start with naval ideas of which we've picked up the first 2 (as have the Ottomans). I believe we can do some relatively cheesy stuff against the Ottomans if we can get naval superiority, but my intent is to beat them straight up in a fight. The next naval idea is 50% increased naval force limits and I don't give it a second look as we're so far off our force limits at the moment (3 light ships, 3 galleys).

Our allies don't fill me with confidence: The Golden Horde has even worse tech than us, Candar is small and weak and Tripoli actually has decent tech but aren't exactly a powerhouse.

Our rivals on the other hand are quite scary: The Ottomans, Timurids and Qara Qoyunlu. I don't really want to fight Qara Qoyunlu or the Timurids as those hordes are distractions from our real goal. I expect them to die off anyway in the long run as their nomadic units get outclassed with the improving technology. But for now Qara Qoyunlu shares borders with us and so is a bit of a concern. And I definitely don't want to border the Timurids as I don't want them having an excuse to attack us.

We have cores in Syria and Ramazan, giving us reconquest CBs against them, as well as claims against most of our neighbours (including Venice who holds Cyprus).

And currently we are at war with Hedjaz - a war they started for the conquest of Negev. We have them almost totally occupied, but we can't complete the occupation as Yemen is also at war with them and holds Najran, Hedjaz's eastern-most province. Warscore however is at 99%. We can't fully annex them but we can vassalize them (and we have an open diplo slot) for 91% warscore.

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As their new overlords, we inherit Hedjaz's war with Yemen. We have Adal to the south and Oman to the east as allies for this war. We can't call our other allies in since the war is too old but hopefully they won't be needed. Our armies are immediately in battle in the Hedjaz territory of Mocha: 15,000 of our men v 7,000 of theirs, but we count as being on the attack and suffer a terrain penalty. We take over twice the number of casualties they do before we rout. I immediately start recruiting some more regiments (just infantry, as until military tech 6 they're almost as good).

And Qara Qoyunlu start a coalition against us.

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Yemen has completed the siege of Mocha. Then the remaining Yemen army of 5,000 is completely wiped out by an 8,000-man army from Oman. This effectively ends the threat from Yemen without the Mamluks having to win a single battle.

Our recovering army returns to Yemen and picks off two newly hired regiments before settling in for sieges.

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We get our first piety event. We've started at -2% piety and, since we're both Sunni, I expect to be losing piety every time I declare war on the Ottomans. I also know the importance of keeping up in tech so I'm going the impious route for increased taxes, manpower and technology. Here I choose to keep our money (which we really need at the moment), lose 25 piety (now -27%) and 10 prestige. Hopefully the prestige will take care of itself with more warfare.

Meanwhile we complete our first mission - we've fabricated a claim on the Qara Qoyunlu province of Mosul; get 5 prestige and, more importantly, 25 military power, getting us closer to military tech 6. Our next mission is to reclaim Badiyat Ash Sham which is currently the sole province of Syria.

The war with Yemen looks as good as won when trouble hits...

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Qara Qoyunlu declares war on us and my allies, the Golden Horde, Candar and Tripoli, plus my new vassal of Hedjaz join on my side. With the whole alliance we outnumber Qara Qoyunlu 2 to 1, but my forces are tied up far to the south and, as discussed earlier, I don't trust my allies to help out that much. Also Qara Qoyunlu is also a military tech ahead and the Horde cavalry is 2 pips better than ours.

Fortunately the Qara Qoyunlu army of 16,000 heads north to deal with the immediate threat of the Golden Horde. The Golden Horde is behind in techs and although this doesn't affect their units, other battle factors are affected. Their first battle with 9,000 men against the 16,000 of Qara Qoyunlu is completely one-sided: Qara Qoyunlu lose little more than a thousand men while this Golden Horde army is all but wiped out. This is followed up with another one-sided battle against the other Golden Horde army of 8,000 men. The Golden Horde in 2 swift battles have been effectively removed as any kind of reasonable ally in this war.

I want to complete the war against Yemen before sending our men north to fight Qara Qoyunlu. Our sieges in Yemen are going too slowly - and then I notice our war exhaustion is quite high at 7.65 which reduces siege ability by 7.6% among other effects. I buy the war exhaustion down from to 1.65 with diplo power. As our sieges complete we get enough warscore to vassalize Yemen. This will put us one over our diplo relations limit but I'm hoping to drop that Golden Horde alliance as soon as our royal marriage with them ends.

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So, we're at war with Qara Qoyunlu, though they seem more concerned with our allies, the Golden Horde, at the moment. We've managed to pick off a few newly recruited regiments in their southern provinces.

There haven't been any level 1 military advisors available, but we can finally afford a level 2 advisor, Grand Captain Fadl Sayfuddin (+2 military power per month, -10% land maintenance).

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The bad news is that the Qara Qoyunlu army has left Golden Horde territory and the last intelligence we had was this it was heading our way.

Their main army of 17,000 men appears in the south and catches a small force of 5,000 (which is mostly men from our Tripoli ally), but we have the favourable ground, and our reinforcements are already en-route, reaching the battle within a week.

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It's a hard battle in the Arabian desert - we take over 13,000 losses to our opponent's 5,000, and are eventually routed. Little more than 2,000 men regather back in Cairo. Our army is decimated and we have no manpower left to rebuild. I don't see a reasonable way back into this war and so I sue for peace while our provinces are still unoccupied (with the warscore at -17%).

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The peace treaty breaks our alliance with the Golden Horde (no loss there as they were pretty useless) and ends our recently gained vassalage over Hedjaz. Hedjaz hates us for abandoning them and immediately join Qara Qoyunlu's coalition against us.

In better news, the Ottomans have meanwhile lost a war against Serbia and suffered a pretty harsh truce, losing two provinces to Serbia and one province to the Anatolian nation of Karaman, as well as having to release Mentese as an independent one-province minor in western Anatolia.

We get rid of our remaining mercenaries (which is mainly empty regiments now) and let our army rebuild a small bit. A year since the peace was signed we're back up to 5,400 men (3,400 infantry, 2,000 cavalry). We consolidate those into 6 regiments and declare war on Syria as our mission is still to reclaim their single province. They have no allies and only 2 regiments in their army so this shouldn't be a problem. Oh, and they're Sunni, so the declaration of war helps us lower our piety (down to -44% now).

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The battle is easily won and Badiyat Ash Sham falls to us after a year-long siege. The province is successfully annexed. Our prestige took a bit of a battering in the war against Qara Qoyunlu, but the completion of this mission bumps our prestige back up to 39.

Perhaps now will be a time of peace. I take the mission to create a proper fleet. As discussed previously, I'm not going for a military fleet, but will focus on a trade fleet which should help us sustain decent advisors and a sizable army. To complete the mission we need 16 more ships and we're at 6 now. I spend 150 admin power to reign in our inflation from 5.22% down to 1.22% and then start building light ships.

After the loss in that last war, the Mamluks need somthing to inspire them. The story of Barsbai Burji, a slave who rose to become the Mamluk Sultan in 1422, does just that. This National Epic event costs us 10 admin power and 21 ducats but we get +1 prestige per year for 20 years.

And this period of peace gives us the time we need to complete research of the Arquebus (military tech 6), allowing us to upgrade our cavalry.

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Some consider this research heretical. Do they not realize how important this technology is for us?! I send the fools away for another -25 piety. Piety is now at -69%, which equates to +8.8% tax, +8.8% manpower and -4.4% tech cost.

We complete the building of our fleet - the 3 galleys that we had originally plus 20 light ships helping trade in the Alexandria trade node. We now have 55% of the trade power in that node. We still have over 150 ducats in loans but our economy is doing reasonably well, earning 10 ducats a month, so I expect to pay our debts off soon. Our new mission is to create an army for our nation.

Candar, our two province minor ally in northern Anatolia has been drawn into a war against the Ottomans by their ally Karaman. They're not the defender or war leader so we don't get a call-to-arms. With the Ottomans allied to Qara Qoyunlu and Crimea, and with us still very weak, I don't want to risk a war just yet. Unfortunately it isn't long before Candar is fully occupied and annexed by the Ottomans. Karaman soon agrees to a peace as well and it gives up it's recently gained province of Konya.

There is unhappiness among the Clergy. I ignore them for +10 prestige and -10 piety, which I consider as all upside, and we're now at -79% piety.

Qara Qoyunlu and Hedjaz disband the coalition against us even as our peace treaties with them expire. The Golden Horde is free to try form an alliance with us again, and they do offer us an alliance; I laugh at them and turn them down. Our ally Candar has just been destroyed; our vassal Yemen is weak and lies to the south beyond two hostile nations; our other ally Tripoli isn't exactly a great power; we've just snubbed the Golden Horde; and our slowly rebuilding army is only up to 12 regiments. So of course now is the perfect time for Qara Qoyunlu to redeclare war on us.

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On paper our armies are actually of equal size, we've caught up in military tech, and our economy is growing strong. They only border the Persian Gulf which means they can't interfere with our Mediterranean trade, so our economy should remain strong throughout the war. I take another 48 ducat loan and immediately hire 8 mercenary infantry regiments. I also recruit a general as our last one died, but Qasim Bugha (1/1/2/-) isn't very good. We're going to have to rely on our Sultan to lead us.

These new mercenaries push us back up to 75% of our land force limit and complete our mission. Our new mission is to ally Ramazan. They're not that strong but we're sorely in need of allies at the moment, and they've rivalled the Ottomans so will probably help us there.

I wait for the Tripoli army to join mine and the army now has 27 regiments total (24 infantry and 3 cavalry). Meanwhile a Qara Qoyunlu advance force has started besieging my newly reconquered territory of Badiyat Ash Sham, and we attack it at once. That force has no leader and they get no terrain advantage. We outnumber them 27,000 to 8,000 though their reinforcements arrive during the battle.

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We take heavy casualties but they take more and are force to retreat. I decide to press our advantage now. I consolidate our (non-mercenary) regiments and advance. We won't catch the retreating main army but we want to destroy as many of their other smaller forces as we can before they can recover.

We kill 3,000 out of 5,000 in Mosul, plus another 3,000 is trapped in Mamluk lands and are wiped out by our bigger army.

I finally conclude our alliance with Ramazan with a royal marriage, thus completing our mission for another +10 prestige and 25 diplo power.

The guru Nanak arrives to spread his religion of Sikhism in our province of Hammah. If I refuse, I'll be hit by rebellion, something I can't afford to handle at the moment. So they can have their new faith. I take the mission to achieve religious unity but then see that it will take 14 years to convert that one province. I cancel that mission and have to wait a year for a new one.

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Another small 5,000-man Qara Qoyunlu force arrives in Badiyat Ash Sham. This is too easy now as we catch and destroy it. Then half our army, led by our Sultan, moves in to Mosul to besiege it. He dies during the siege.

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Good luck!

Don't have a lot to say, but I've been enjoying this. Country-switching AARs tend to be my favorites.

How's Wales been faring without you behind the reins? Or is it too soon to tell much?
 
Thanks TSSL. I've been keeping an eye on Wales and will provide an update at the end of the turn. But last I saw Wales had been drawn into a war by its allies that have it fighting Scotland.
 
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We've lost our useless Sultan, and Sultan Yûsuf al-Said (2/2/2) is decidedly below average. Losing our ruler in a siege has dropped our stability from +1 to -1. I boost it with admin power back up to +0.

The army at Mosul is now without a general and coming under attack from Qara Qoyunlu. Sultan Yûsuf al-Said is made a general (3/-/2/-) and put in charge of the reinforcing army.

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Despite our terrain and numbers advantage, casualties are even on both sides. Eventually the numbers tell and Qara Qoyunlu retreats.

We're hit by Empty Coffers. We have the opportunity to gain 441 ducats at the cost of 50 admin power and lose 33 piety (which is good for us, we've just lost a lot of our impiety following our ruler's death). The downside is that 3 peasant rebellion stacks would spawn including 20 regiments in Cairo. We just can't afford that in the middle of a war. I choose to tax the Dhimmi only for a smaller reward.

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I consolidate our army's regiments and start hiring more mercenaries. The army destroys some more newly recruited regiments and then settles in for some sieges, hoping to complete them before Qara Qoyunlu can rebuild their army. A 10,000-man Qara Qoyunlu army arrives in Azerbaijan but doesn't dare to attack us. Sharizor falls to Tripoli, our ally, and then Mosul falls to us. Warscore is at +57% and I have no desire to press this war further - Qara Qoyunlu aren't our real enemy and we still haven't had a chance to attack the Ottomans.

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Mosul is now mine (begin coring and harsh treatment) and the Ottoman-Qara Qoyunlu alliance is now severed. It only takes power projection to +48 which is a bit disappointing (need +50 to get a bonus 1/1/1 monarch points per month). And we're currently sitting at 206 ducats in loans.

The next diplo tech still seems so far away and we spent a lot of diplo power in that peace, so I give up on reaching that next tech and just take the next idea: Grand Navy (Naval idea 3 - +50% naval force limits), which also unlocks our first national idea: Red Sea Trade - +5% trade power, +10% trade range.

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Our royal marriages have all broken since our old ruler died. We arrange a royal marriage with Tripoli and, with +192 relations, they'll now accept vassalization.

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We have Tripoli and Yemen as vassals and Ramazan as an ally. Still not a particularly strong alliance. But we have an open diplomatic relations slot. I want Hedjaz as a vassal again, so I begin fabricating a claim on their territory. But to fill the currently open diplomatic relations slot I make an alliance and arrange a royal marriage with Aq Qoyunlu. They're not that small (4 provinces) and likely to want to help against both Qara Qoyunlu and the Ottomans.

We also have to hire a new military advisor - Master Recruiter Shaik al-Mahmudi (+2 military power per month, +10% manpower) fills in. We still don't have an admin or diplomatic advisor. We lose more admin power recovering from stability losses due to events and trying to save money. We also lose prestige and piety (which is fine) when I deny the imams' request for a donation.

With our claim against Hedjaz finally in place, I check their allies. They have only Oman and Adal, both relatively weak nations. In addition Hedjaz is beset by pretender rebels and we still have all our mercenaries from the last war, so even though neither of our allies will help, I declare war on Hedjaz.

Immediately (and despite the harsh treatment) Iraqi nationalists rebel in Mosul. I can afford to hold off on pressing my advantage in Hedjaz while their pretender rebels are still causing trouble, and so I send half the army back to Mosul to deal with the nationalists.

No sooner has the army returned back to Hedjaz than more Iraqi nationalists spring up in Mosul. I besiege Hedjaz provinces with minimum forces while an army heads back north again to deal with the nationalists.

Because of the nationalists, the war's been lasting quite a bit longer than I hoped and we soon have to take another 50 ducat loan. We also raise war taxes to keep the costs in check - supporting all these mercenaries is pretty expensive. On the plus side, Mosul completes coring, but will still have nationalism for a long while yet.

Tabouk, the war goal, falls to us. But I'm only going to be satisfied when Hedjaz becomes my vassal which will require 86% warscore.

And then Sultan Yûsuf al-Said dies during the siege of Medina. He was Sultan for only 4 years and we're now heading into a 10 year regency (1/0/1).

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I buy back the -2 stability hit and am determined to make the most of this war as we won't be declaring another war for 10 years.

With the Hedjaz pretender rebels having been dealt with, the war culminates in the decisive Battle of Najran. Our 22,000 men lead by the Tripoli general, Mustafa Halid (1/2/1/-), beat 10,000 of the Hedjaz alliance. It's then just mopping up and besieging the remaining Hedjaz provinces.

We get an event for 3 free light ships to start off our Red Sea trade fleet.

There's a bit of a concern as Qara Qoyunlu declare war against Hedjaz. This means that if we vassalize Hedjaz we'll end up fighting Qara Qoyunlu again. This could become expensive, but we've beaten them before and we can do it again. They've reached military tech 7 which increases my concern, but they don't get better units (nomad tech group) so I'm hoping the difference will be minor.

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This 10 year regency is a real political crisis and we lose 25 legitimacy from the event.

I take out more loans as the sieges complete. Every province is eventually occupied and Hedjaz agrees to become our vassal.

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So we are at war again with Qara Qoyunlu. As well as having our vassals in this war, we also have our former enemies, Adal and Oman, joining us as war allies. This results in us having twice the numbers of our horde foe. The bulk of Qara Qoyunlu's army is in Oman, giving my armies time to sweep clear regiments heading south to reinforce him. News from Qara Qoyunlu is that they have a new ruler, Husan 'Ali III (5/5/3). (These differences in monarch power hardly seem fair though I suppose it's karma after having such strong rulers in my Wales turn.)

Two of the provinces in Hedjaz produce coffee and we get the Trading in Coffee effect for +10% fort defence.

With our economy struggling under this continual warfare, I raise war taxes again as we head for a decisive battle near the Persian Gulf.

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The two main armies meet in Al Hasa where I'm slightly outnumbered but have some reinforcements on the way. A secondary force reaches Basra to cut off the Qara Qoyunlu reinforcements. Both battles are won and I start thinking of what gains I might make in this war.

Then Iraqi nationalists again rise up in Mosul. I need to deal with these rebels and the war is costing us a lot, driving us deeper into debt. I settle for a white peace.

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I deal with the Iraqi nationalists and start preparing for the long peace, repaying our debt which is up to 6 loans (a little over 300 ducats).

And then the Sultan-in-waiting is killed! A new strong ruler for our nation will surely take his place...

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Or not. God have mercy on us indeed.