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The Thousand Mile Reich

July 20, 1943.

Today the Soviet Union signed an armistice with the Anti-Comintern powers. The Bolsheviks surrendered to Germany everything West of the Urals, as well as the territories in Persia. Iraq and Syria were divided between Germany and Italy, while Korea, most of Manchuria, and Eastern Siberia went to Japan. Soviet-controlled territory now consists of Western and Central Siberia and some parts of Southern Manchuria and Northeast China. At new capital of Novosibirsk, one of the new industrial cities East of the River Ob, Lavrenti Beria has been announced as Chairman of both the Party and the Committee on State Security. Three former Polituburo members—Stalin, former Security chief Uritsky, and former Foreign Minister Molotov—have disappeared.

The Italians appear to be on the point of destroying the British bridgehead in Libya, now reduced to the immediate surroundings of Benghazi, and continue Southward in Africa. Continuing Churchill’s whirl from one objective to another, British forces have seized Crete.

Reports continue to appear that German settlers are colonizing lands taken from Poland and Russia, and in some place not employing the inhabitants but starving or even killing them. That cannot be good business, nor is their continuing refusal to normalize economic conditions in Western Europe.

We have made great strides compared with Germany, from 36% of their industrial production seven years ago to 71% today, although Army Intelligence estimates that their army is nearly three times larger. They still present little threat as they have no fleet and lack our entrepreneurship, popular legitimacy, and deep military leadership. They are said to be working on the same sort of new energy that we are, as well as on synthetic oil and rubber—although they are far behind us in the last.

Except for the new cessions and China, we now hold all former Japanese-held territory except the three smaller home islands and some small rocks such as Okinawa and the Kuriles. The Russian surrender of Korea and Eastern Siberia multiplies our tasks, though serious opposition is not expected. Some divisions will just have to take very long walks. We may, however, have to break out rule on diplomatic entanglements outside the hemisphere; better to have the Chinese themselves liberate China than to have to do it ourselves.

Next week USS Saratoga is scheduled to returned to service, almost exactly a year after she was bombed at Central Pacific. She is a relic now, her place long since taken by Intrepid, Franklin, and Ticonderoga, though Lex still serves.
 
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World War Too

October 12, 1943.

Today the Japanese government surrendered, although not before our boys pursued them halfway up the Yangtze, well into Korea and Manchuria, and all the way to Yakutsk. Their forces continued to resist to the end, but were completely ineffective after the fall of Honshu this Summer.

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We were right that Japan could not fight us. Indeed, even over a year and a half only three commanders—Nimitz, Admiral Halsey, and General Patton—commanders could find challenges in which to really shine [+1 each]. We suffered just 16,000 casualties including 2,127 dead, slightly less than in the Brazilian deployment. The sharpest action, at Sendai in Northern Honshu, cost 220 lives compared with 464 for the initial river crossing in Curitiba—which was only a third of the bill for that province. Compared to all American deployments the cost was almost trivial—they totaled 41,000, of whom 6,350 did not come home [=21 dissent if continuous; actual c. 18].

[AoD’s trickleback modifier (0.45 with no hospital techs, 0.6 with three, a reasonable average for U.S. in 1942-43) is high compared with actual U.S. experience. According to the U.S. Army Office of the Adjutant General (http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/ref/Casualties/index.html) 29.7% of Army battle casualties died and at least another 31% did not return to duty, making the trickleback 0.39 at most (Navy would be lower, but AoD does not report on naval battles). Using 0.39 we would get 4,620 KIA in ground actions and, given observed activity levels and reported losses for the Navy, merchant marine, and U.S.A.A.F., I’ll attribute an equal number for these (practically all Navy). Finally, in RL the U.S. suffered almost exactly half as many non-combat deaths as combat-related. This gives an estimate of 13,680 vs. about 167,000 for the RL Pacific War (including a pro-rated share of domestic training losses). That feels about right for what was observed.]

Japan and Taiwan will be guided while we show them how to run 20th century economies. Korea and Primorsk will be turned over to local rule, dividing Manchuria between them [had to shut off event 48 to prevent KOR dividing itself]. Unable to negotiate with the Nationalists handover of Hainan and the lands we hold on the mainland, we will just abandon them; most of that area is consumed with local rebellions anyway. Various spots of no economic importance were returned to Philippine, Australian, Dutch, or British rule (Hong Kong) [savegame edit].

The Germans are running wild. Since August they have sunk two more U.S. merchantmen, attacked Spain—although they have not made any progress in the Pyrenees yet—absorbed the rest of Persia, overrun more than half of India against little resistance, and will no doubt be in possession of the airfields at Mandalay and Rangoon before long. And the Vichy in Hanoi will likely welcome them.

Of our 60 divisions deployed from Hawaii to China we had expected to bring home at least three fourths, but it is now clear that a most will have to be sent to Indochina and to Siam and Malaya—again. We need more artillery, high altitude divisions, and those ‘Army Group’ and ‘jungle division’ ideas, but sources of funding—private investment, savings re-channeled through R.F.C., and taxation—are all fully utilized. Ongoing investment, including upgrading the woeful state of power and transport infrastructure in Japan, will help but superior American fighting spirit and combat skills will have to make good the economic deficit.
 

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Division 54, Where Are You?

January 1, 1944.

The economic situation is precarious, with both excessive defense spending and the beginnings of a wage spiral. Employer competition for workers has raised pay more than 50% since 1936 to levels never before seen—more than 12% above the 1928 peak (RL 1929 to 1943 +56%-57% depending on calculation method. U.S. Department of Commerce, Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970. U.S. G.P.O., 1975).

R.F.C. assets have grown to over 85% of national income in just two and a half years. The bonds have been funded mainly from public savings as well as Latin American investors. Private equity stakes in Chicago account for several percent. This has not been enough, so the federal government has had to purchase nearly a fifth [AoD: -$54k in three years], which cannot continue even another six months. Cassandras worry that R.F.C.’s revenues do not cover its coupons and, on current trends, still will not even when the sales tax is fully implemented in 1946. But they are not reckoning with accelerated growth from entrepreneurial activity.

Fears that loans to productive investment would have to be cut back, however, have proved unfounded. Domestic infrastructure projects authorized this year declined to 61 compared with 117 two years ago, but that is largely because of expansion of loans direct to industry, up to 16 projects from 6, not counting synthetics and the Chicago power factory. In the conservatorships we are doing better than ever, and there are great opportunities in Japan.

The conservatorships now provide 31 IC (vs. 25 three years ago), Japan 25 even though professional economic management is still only partly implemented, and Taiwan and Malaya about 1 each, compared to a domestic total of about 370. Haiti and Cuba are special bright spots, with sugar, tobacco, coffee, and the national air and shipping lines all thriving.

Preparations for the extended war proceed tolerably well. Total production is up to 78% of Germany's. In recent months their growth has stalled; excessive state interference is catching up with them. About a fifth of the fleet now patrols against German submarines; no more merchant ships have been lost. All but one of the 14 high altitude divisions, 16 infantry, and the cavalry wait facing Burma for the Germans to appear (they are being slow about it and we can’t cross while the British still hold the border), while 15 more divisions at Singapore are poised to cut them off from the sea once they do. Nearly all have been upgraded to 1941 equipment standards.

The only difficulty came after Field Marshal MacArthur turned over Indochina from the Anti-Comintern French faction to a local nationalist named Ho Chi Minh. Mac then began preparing over 150,000 men to march on Bangkok before Vandenberg’s letter pointing out that we already had an access agreement caught up with him. Mac blamed it on disruption caused by more than a dozen army and corps headquarters being at sea at once, but the fiasco cost more than $8 million in wasted supplies. An investigation also found that the War Office had lost track of General Vandegrift’s division, leaving them in Bolivia for over two years; fortunately the Americas Corporation, which had the logistics account, is subject to market discipline and therefore efficient. General Eisenhower, a more careful man, has taken over as Chief of Staff although Mac remains as Army C-in-C [AoD titles are the other way; fix would require rank inversion].

We have authorized 10 more divisions and 8 air groups in addition to 8 and 2 earlier in the war, which will bring the Army to 78 and 32. The generals want ‘jungle’ and ‘armored’ divisions too but they do not need them. Anyway there is no labor pool and no more funding. They will get three army groups and the superbombers will be built—eventually. The Navy still has two battleships, two carriers, six cruisers, and some destroyers on the stocks; they will get no more. Indeed more than 20 destroyers and 100 convoy escorts authorized in the ’41-’42 panics have been cancelled. We have also funded more Assistance Forces and loans to shipbuilders.

Elsewhere the British bridgehead in Libya survives, and the Anti-Axis French have actually pushed the Italians back a little in the Congo. The Spanish have lost a fourth of their country but still hold out. Some P.D. leaders like Wallace advocate taking this as an opportunity to cut down German strength, using fleet units underemployed in the Indies and several divisions that we have been holding in the States, but that is just special pleading on behalf of fellow Leftists.

Sliders (Social Conservative):
Democratic: 6 (event 1014a -2).
Political_left: 3 (unchanged).
Freedom: 10 (unchanged).
Free_market: 10 (unchanged).
Standing_army: 6 (unchanged). Max inf org. 71%.
Defense_lobby: 10 (1944 slider +1).
Interventionism: 10 (unchanged).

Ministers:
Armaments: John D. Rockefeller Jr. (Laissez-Faire Capitalist, same as Wagner, but better to have a man of business than a politician).
Army: Eisenhower (Guns and Butter, supply need -15%).

1943 infrastructure appropriations:
South 36: Tulsa, Lubbock 6 each, Louisville 5, Houston, Dallas, Monroe, Birmingham 4 each, Chattanooga 3 (five year total 144/121).
Other U.S. 29: Atlantic City, Cincinnati 6 each, Harrisburg 4, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Chicago 3 each, Philadelphia, Cleveland 2 each (226/216).
Conservatorships 29: Managua 6, San Salvador, Tegucigalpa 5 each, Havana 4, San Jose 3, Santo Domingo, Port-au-Prince, Guatemala City 2 each (95/78).
Grand totals: 465/416.

Industry 16: Philadelphia 4, New York, Newark, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago 2 each (28/12).

Synthetics 0 (10/9).

Reactor: Chicago 2 (2/2).

Americas Pact members (21; holdouts none):
Simple accessions (5): Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, U.S.A.
Peace accessions (7): Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico.
Conservatorships (9): Haiti, Dominican Republic, Cuba, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama.
 
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A Different Kettle of Kraut

April 25, 1944.

The Germans reached the Siamese border on January 21st, and our men attacked immediately. At first little progress was made, as local guides kept leading us in circles [Siam is neutral: oops]. Thirty divisions were kept waiting until MacArthur landed at Rangoon five days later and opened the way from the Burmese side. By mid-March Generals Patton, Ridgeway, and Clark had taken the Irrawaddy Valley all the way to Tibet [+1 each].

Even better, on March 9 Eisenhower, Bradley, and then Hodges landed West of Calcutta. General Devers’ cavalry raced North to cut off the Germans in Bengal, Burma, and Yunnan, reaching the Tibetan border in Bhutan 20 days later. 25 divisions now hold a swath North to Bhutan and East to Dacca while 23 others hold the Irrawaddy with more than 250,000 enemies trapped between them with access to only three small ports on the Arakan Coast. We have sunk eight enemy ships trying to re-supply them. Other German forces are attacking from the West but we are holding them with the help of Eaker’s bombers, who began flying from Calcutta within the last two weeks. Our first Army Group is on the way and will arrive in May.

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The German army is strangely organized. Thus far we have encountered self-propelled artillery, motorized and tank divisions, army groups, and static divisions with surprisingly heavy weaponry armed . Some troops are not German at all, comparable to us arming Haitians—they take terrible risks. As expected, they fight much better than Asians. We are losing men at roughly ten times the rate of the Japanese war, with 28,000 battle casualties, more than three times that many to weather, accidents, and disease, and nearly 200 to tigers in the Orissa forests. Fortunately the Luftwaffe has not yet intervened.

Plans are being laid for a third landing, at Bombay, and a fourth, at Karachi. Crossing the Atlantic is not in prospect: too far, and anyway we don’t have two armies and we do have another war.

The British have established yet another beachhead in Somaliland although the one at Benghazi is no more, with loss of perhaps 150,000 captives to the Germans. Nor does the Republican regime in Spain survive, replaced by a Nationalist one under Ramon Suner, relieving the risk of linkage between crypto-Communists here and there. Unfortunately the new government has allied itself to the enemy.

Our trouble multiplied on the 2nd of this month when the Bolsheviks attacked us without warning or provocation. After suffering such a heavy defeat in one war ordinary men would seek peace, but these seek world domination. Nimitz quickly sank their Pacific Fleet, two battleships, a dozen destroyers and some 40 submarines. We have had to send 6 divisions and 7 fighter groups to Manchuria to help the Koreans hold them off. For the time being we cannot help Primorsk defend its Western lands near Lake Baikal, but at least the capital at Vladivostok is in no danger.

14 divisions remain in Japan, Taiwan, Hawaii, and at home, but we are losing men faster than we can replace them. Nine more are authorized but it is not clear that they can be staffed. Heavier weapons will have to substitute—artillery always works—but unfortunately War Office rules require that a division be returned home to receive additional support equipment.
 

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Gold Stars

July 1, 1944.

The economy continues to grow. Total production is up 10% from the beginning of the year and is back up to 78% of German. We have not been able to fund as many new projects as we would have liked—and none in Japan yet—but projects already authorized continue to come on line. No new military funding has been authorized except nine artillery brigades and equipment replacement for perhaps a fourth of our existing artillery and two thirds of our bombers. We are strained to the limit, however; the federal cash surplus is not much over a twentieth what it was at the end of 1941, and it has also been difficult to keep military supply stocks at an acceptable level.

Politically everything is quiet. No one would dare criticize government or industry when we are at war with both of the world’s most dangerous powers and when so many are dying for our country. President McNary had the excellent idea of awarding gold-painted paper stars to mothers of young men who have died overseas; everyone who receives one is very proud. Mothers of cripples get silver stars.

The British have been completely defeated in Libya. In April they attacked in yet more directions, invading Somalia, from which they were quickly driven out, and Spain, which the Germans had left to its own government. By early June the Empire had added another colony, at least for the moment. The Germans are counterattacking but have made no progress yet. The war in Central Africa continues, with the Italians apparently losing ground lately.

Although it took more than three months after the landing at Cuttack to finish off the enemy cut off in Burma, in the end nearly 300,000 were killed, captured, or simply disappeared. The only front now is the one West of Calcutta. That has been horrifying. On one black day, May 6th, we lost nearly 13,000 men on middle Ganges, and over 76,000 battle casualties including 10,158 killed since January 21st.

We built up a strong base at Calcutta and brought in every bomber group and infantry division we could; 63 divisions are now in India, three preparing to depart from Japan and Taiwan, four on the Russian front, and five in the U.S. waiting for their artillery. We have driven the Germans back, eleven junior generals winning decorations in the process. We now hold a front nearly halfway across the subcontinent. The long-planned landing at Bombay begins tomorrow.

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The Russian front is troubling. Although we have committed just four divisions and seven fighter groups, only 111 men have been killed in infantry actions—the fighter pilots have suffered more heavily, and we and the Koreans are holding our ground in Western Manchuria, Primorsk forces are in retreat toward the sea in the far North. We will have to commit more men to defend the capital at Vladivostok, which will consume our last reserves.

Manpower is becoming a serious problem. Reserves have declined by over 200,000 since the start of the year. We can go on at this rate until perhaps this time next year; no further.
 

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Democracy in Action

November 8, 1944.

Finally, a majority in our own right. This was far the easiest campaign since the 1920s, so much so that when Whitaker and Baxter demanded that we double funding from four years ago we simply refused, and in fact reduced self-assessments from $500,000 each to $400,000. It is not as if there are other clients with resources.
The D.D.’s, after failing to come up with a program distinct from ours or a candidate, dissolved as a distinct party, some joining us and others the P.D.’s, who went back to their old name of simply ‘Democrats.’ Neither Dixiecrats nor Democrats could challenge us on foreign policy. A few in each party tried calling for a separate peace with one enemy to concentrate on the other—the far right wanting to fight the Commies and the left the Fascists—but with our boys dying fighting both the public was not interested and the party leaderships wisely steered clear. The truth is that the Soviet war isn’t costing much and, with so much of the German Army trapped in India, we’re going to get a breather against them too. Ultimately international commerce cannot stand either of these regimes, and there is no need to accommodate ourselves to either.

Both also offered the same old tired domestic offerings, but decentralizing in the midst of war simply looked foolish, as did disrupting industry to empower labor, especially since everyone has a job and R.F.C. bonds.

Ex-Vice President (and Ohio governor) Bricker is President-elect. He remains the best for business we’ve found; we gave his job to Barkley four years ago out of expediency, not any dissatisfaction. Robert E. Wood, Chairman of Sears Roebuck, will be Vice President. The Dixiecrats ran Thurmond again and the Democrats old LaFollette despite his conviction in ’37 and arrest in ’41; they seemed to know that they would lose no matter who they ran.

We carried 39 states with 443 electoral votes, while Thurmond got just the same eight as before for 81 and LaFollette only Arizona for 4. 53.4% of recorded votes went to us vs. less than 46% for the others combined [RL D vote share; R states plus those that would have been carried with this swing, plus TX and VA].

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We now hold solid majorities of 57 in the Senate (including 12 former D.D.’s and 8 new gains) and 242 in the House (including 20 former D.D.’s and 13 gains). The Democrats lost most of the D.D.'s who returned to them, who have discredited themselves with both the mainstream and with radicals, although they kept all the P.D. House seats, which are almost all urban working-class or farmer districts and even gained several. They are left with just 25 in the Senate (down 8; LaFollette was narrowly re-elected though he did not carry his state for the Presidency) and 146 in the House (losing 23 of 35 former D.D. seats but gaining 6 others). The Dixiecrats hold 14 (unchanged) and 47 (up 4).

We have thus been able to outdo Coolidge and Mellon; not only bringing the top tax rate back down to 25% but also finally eliminating double taxation, i.e. those on dividends and estates, thus reducing incentives against production. The corporate reporting requirements passed in 1934-35 have been removed, reducing pointless costs. A new bottom bracket of 2.5% was added to give everyone a stake in the system.

Freedom of contract is also now finally fully established; no one, under penalty of law, may discourage any employee from negotiating individually with their employer. Union organizers and officials nationwide will have to find work themselves instead of interfering with that of others.

With control of Congress it has been possible to extend ongoing infrastructure and support for entrepreneurship throughout the country as well as start new infrastructure efforts in several states, Panama, and Japan.

Hughes has been replaced as F.B.I. Director by Fritz Kuhn, who promises better attention to troublemakers who could interfere with business overseas and draft evasion at home. A new National Intelligence Department will coordinate the work of the Army and Navy as well as add a new focus on technology and industry; it will be headed by the shipbuilder Henry J. Kaiser.
 

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Good Business

January 1, 1945.

The economy continues to grow. We were able to fund 133 entrepreneurial efforts this year, up from 110 last year, and the fraction that are direct production rather than infrastructure support also increased. Total production is up another 10% from midyear and has reached 86% of German, a level not seen since the ‘20s. Near midyear there was a near-crisis in the federal cash position, which dipped below $170 million, but that has recovered to $275 million and is rising.

Unfortunately the government also had to subscribe nearly $30 billion in R.F.C. bonds. R.F.C. assets expanded this year by $59 billion to $228 billion, nearly 105% of national income. Domestic savers and Latin American and Canadian investors bought another $29 billion of the increase. The savings and credit controls are working well; for the third straight year over 20% of household income went into bonds, holding the lid on prices despite still rising wages. Nevertheless the private share declined from nearly four fifths to half. Domestic entrepreneurs remain unable to contribute significantly (except for the segregated power bonds) as all of our capital is working to generate growth.

R.F.C.’s finances are nevertheless sound. At 4% coupon on the regular bonds, R.F.C.’s obligations in the coming year will be about $9 billion vs. income of $6 billion about equally from non-hemisphere tariffs, sales tax, and return on portfolio investments, but the gap will close when the tax reaches the full 5% in 1946 and tariffs and portfolio returns escalate. Leftists keep predicting that R.F.C. obligations will expand faster than ability to repay, but Rockefeller and Wood are smarter than that, as American entrepreneurs generally. No investment that pays good dividends is actually risky.

The war against Germany is going well. We sank a number of ex-Japanese transport in Persia and our first German submarine in the Atlantic, losing just one merchantman in six months. They began a power factory around midyear but our is more advanced.

On July 2nd we landed at Bombay and by the 9th had cut off over 100,000 Germans in South India, all of whom were cleaned up by late August. Then on September 5 we seized Karachi and by early October had sealed off the whole Sindhi coast trapping another 600,000 in North India and Sinkiang, where they were attacking the Chinese. Furious German counterattacks took up most of October, but were stopped when Arnold and Eaker began bombing their supply lines through Persia. Arnold, Eisenhower, Hodges, Richardson and nine younger generals played admirable roles [+1 each]. All this cost us 55,000 men including 7,374 dead, significantly less than the first half of the year.

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Unless the enemy can break through our positions (or through the Afghan mountains, which they have not tried), the Indian campaign will end with over 1,000,000 Germans and their allies under the ground or in our prisons. We have 64 divisions in India now, and have only to wait. Before the war is over the Army may make a round the world tour, but it would have to go a long way—not only in miles. According to Army Intelligence the enemy and their puppets still have nearly four million men outside our net.

The Russian front is the trouble; although our lines are holding through the center of Manchuria, we have lost ground both in the Southwest, where they have regained the sea at Tangshan and in the far North, where they have taken the Amur bend. We have lost over 10,000 men including 1,346 dead, not counting significant pilot losses; the Red Air Force outnumbers us and their planes can stand pounding. Only 9 U.S. and 9 allied divisions to face over 150 Russians and their Mongolian allies; potential reserves in the U.S. or mobilizing are just 5 divisions.


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The manpower situation is critical. This year we took in 216,000 fit men [at 1,000/mp], but took over 400,000 casualties including U.S.A.A.F., Navy, and non-combat losses, of whom some 262,000 will not return to duty. Assistance Forces for Japan absorbed 64,000, Army and Navy units absorbed 104,000, the merchant marine 40,000, and economic projects 133,000, so the reserve pool has declined from 648,000 to 261,000. At this rate we can go only seven more months before we will have to choose between the economy and the Army.

Several reforms will be necessary. First, there will be no need for more Assistance Forces; one group has become superfluous and will be disbanded. Second, the last two planned infantry divisions have been cancelled, capping the Army at 76. Third, the rate of expansion of the merchant marine, which has been driven partly by deployment of the Army overseas, can be slowed. Finally, we’re counting on Kuhn to find 24,000 or 25,000 more men in the coming year compared with last. What we cannot do is abandon growth; any economy must expand or die.

This means that, even with the military frozen we can afford only about a fourth as many casualties this year as last. This means a long halt in India, and in fact we have not lost a man in battle there since early November. The North will be harder; reinforcements must come mainly from India and we cannot afford either ambitious operations or unpleasant surprises. Decisive results must wait until economic and technical advances make them possible more cheaply. Better planes would help considerably, but the scientists say that a new engine principle is more than a year away.

The rest of the world is quiet militarily. By mid-September the Germans had re-established the Spanish government. In Africa the British—relying mainly on Free French troops; where have they managed to recruit so many?—have recovered all of Congo and Tanganyika, although Somaliland and Kenya remain solidly in Italian hands.

Sliders (Paternal Autocrat):
Democratic: 6 (no funding increase for Campaigns, Inc. this time).
Political_left: 2 (election win -1).
Freedom: 10 (unchanged).
Free_market: 10 (unchanged).
Standing_army: 7 (1945 slider +1). Max inf org. 95%.
Defense_lobby: 10 (unchanged).
Interventionism: 10 (unchanged).

New ministers:
-Head of State: Bricker (Corporate Suit, +10% money, dissent growth +10%, +10% retooling time, unit costs) [edit to make eligible].
-Head of Government: Wood (Silent Workhorse, IC +5%, diplomacy cost +20%).
-Security: Kuhn (Prince of Terror, +15% foreign IC, +10% consumer goods).
-Intelligence: Kaiser (Industrial Specialist, +5% IC, steal blueprint, sabotage industry +5%).

1944 infrastructure appropriations:
South 39: Birmingham 8, Monroe, Tulsa, Dallas 6 each, Chattanooga, Washington D.C. 4 each, Louisville 3, Houston 2 (six year total 183/160).
Other U.S. 34: Cincinnati 5, Boston, Harrisburg, Charleston, Cleveland, San Francisco, Los Angeles 4 each, Detroit 3, Atlantic City 2 (260/238).
Conservatorships 29: Guatemala City 6, Santo Domingo, Port-au-Prince 5 each, Havana, Panama 4 each, San Jose 3, San Salvador 2 (124/100).
Japan 5: Tokyo 5.
Grand totals: 572/498.

Industry 26: Atlantic City, Harrisburg, Cincinnati, Louisville, Lubbock 3 each, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Dallas 2 each, New York, Newark, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Chicago (54/28).

Synthetics: 0 (10/10).

Reactor (Chicago): 2 (4/3).

Rocket Test (Los Angeles): 9 (9/0).
 

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Mostly Quiet on the Western Front

July 1, 1945.

Production is up yet another 6% in six months, to 91% of German. Their economy has actually shrunk slightly; central direction just doesn’t pay. For our part, we have been able to continue to fund entrepreneurial activity across the country and expand efforts in Japan.

The manpower situation is not good—down another 49,000—but we are beginning to turn the corner; where six months ago it appeared that we would barely make it to this date, at current usage rates we could go on as far as mid-1947. By then further slowing of merchant marine growth and new agricultural and medical techniques will help.

The Germans have made three more attempts to seize Karachi, each beaten off with heavy loss to us—more than 22,000 casualties and 3,019 dead—but far heavier to them. Unfortunately the Hunnish respect for human life is much lower than ours, so they can stand it. It is not clear what we will do next, or when; Mac wants to make a 5th landing near the head of the Persian Gulf and drive toward the Caspian Sea, but our forces would be exposed on both flanks, outnumbered, and the enemy in Southeast Persia would not be cut off from the sea. Eisenhower wants to wait and see.

In Manchuria, Hodges, with seven divisions of reinforcements (six drawn from India), has re-established a favorable line while reducing losses from the previous period (8,000 , not counting pilots). Whether he can hold is not clear, since he is facing more than 60 enemy divisions with just 26 including Koreans and Primorskayans. Three reserves remain.

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The German Navy has become more active in the Atlantic, so much the worse for them. Our five oldest carriers have sunk 35 submarines and more than a dozen destroyers for the lost of two merchantmen. We should bring home a few more carriers from the Indian Ocean.

In Africa the British and Free French are advancing again, and have overrun Kenya and most of Somaliland and Abyssinia; the British have landed in Spain yet again, this time at Seville. What accounts for their recovery compared with a year or two ago is not clear.
 

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Even Quieter on the Northern Front

January 1, 1946.

With the help of new non-metallic materials, production is up another 10%, finally matching the Germans, whose economy has not grown in two years. Funding for industrial and infrastructure projects continues strong; 118 projects this year vs. 133 last, but that is because infrastructure is reaching saturation in more places. The private, pay for use approach has proved greatly superior to the old public free roads. 15 cities in the U.S. and Central America now have all the roads and ports they will need for decades to come and at least 8 more will reach that level in the coming year.

Even better, the government’s financial situation has improved mightily, with the first substantial surplus since 1941—in fact a record, nearly $1.3 billion. R.F.C. assets expanded by just $34 billion, the smallest increase in years, from 105% of national income to 117%, and the government had to subscribe only $6 billion. Overall the government now holds $80 billion of the bonds, but these are income-earning assets not debts.

Wages are still rising, now 27% above 1928, but there is still no price pressure. Between absorption by R.F.C. bonds, the sales tax, and the new bottom income tax bracket, consumer spending is actually lower than it was then. One big new area of mass consumption is radio, with which the average man whiles away two hours or more each day quite happily, a much better arrangement for society than reading newspapers or books that might agitate dissatisfaction or, worse, going out to political meetings. The new “picture radios” promise to satisfy even more effectively. We shall have to see that baseball and football are available at night and all year round instead of seasonally; people like those.

At sea we continue to beat up the Kriegsmarine, sinking two battleships, three cruisers of different sizes, some destroyers, and about 55 submarines including a few Italians. We lost just three cargo vessels. On land we lack the troops to advance, although the Germans made nine separate attempts to take Karachi, which cost us 18,000 casualties including 2,435 dead but them five or six times more; in the most recent engagements the ratio has been 10:1 in our favor.

We hope to carry out Mac’s Persian Gulf project sometime next year, but it will be difficult. We have 57 divisions available, facing 85 to 90. All of ours have the latest equipment, but so do most of theirs. Karachi is now heavily fortified, and liberating Pakistan will yield a handful of troops that can be used to stiffen the place further. Overall we are superior in nuclear and naval technologies, about even in industry, and behind in land, air, and rockets.

The Russian Front has been dead quiet. 32 U.S. and allied divisions face more than 70 enemies, but nothing has happened since April. We have no reserves.

We may be turning the corner on manpower; we are down 54,000 for the year, but almost all of this came in the first half. Although with better nutrition we are generating about 266,000 fit men per year—50,000 more than a year ago—most of these are needed for the power factory, other industry, infrastructure, and the merchant marine. Infrastructure expansion is beginning to decline and merchant marine growth can be reduced further, but nothing can be done about more basic economic needs. We were able to disband one more Assistance Force and sold the 8 oldest CLs and 20 DDs to the Colombians, Venezuelans, and Brazilians, and can give up one or two more AFs and four or five of the oldest CAs. Expanding the Army remains a distant prospect.

The cycles of the British Empire continue. Their second invasion of Spain has failed, this time costing them Gibraltar as well. At the same time they have seized most of Northwest Africa, and captured practically all of Somaliland and Abyssinia and most of Sudan.

Sliders (Paternal Autocrat):
Standing_army: 8 (1946 slider +1). Max inf org. 97%.

Ministers unchanged.

1945 infrastructure appropriations:
South 32: Chattanooga 13, Clarksburg 6, Washington D.C., Tulsa 4 each, Monroe, Houston 2 each, Birmingham (seven year total 215/197).
Other U.S. 44: Milwaukee, Minneapolis 13 each, Boston, San Francisco, Los Angeles 4 each, Harrisburg 3 (301/276).
Conservatorships 9: Havana 3, San Salvador 2, Santo Domingo, Port-au-Prince, San Jose, Panama (133/121).
Japan 11: Nagoya 6, Osaka 5 (16/10).
Grand total: 665/604.

Industry 25: Los Angeles 3, New York, Newark, Atlantic City, Harrisburg, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Louisville, Lubbock 2 each, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Dallas (79/51).

Synthetics (Newark): 0 (10/10).

Reactor (Chicago): 3 (7/5).

Rocket Test (Los Angeles): 0 (9/3).
 
The Killing Fields

July 1, 1946.

5% economic growth this half-year. The Germans have finally managed some growth themselves, so we have just a 2% advantage. Politically we are in a good position, as the war is no longer costing many lives; we can look forward to gains in the Fall.

The war is quiet. There is not much German navy left; we sank a few more submarines, while our trade met no interference. We have started construction of sixty ultra-long range destroyers to replace some of the 1940/1941 long range DDs that cannot reach across the Atlantic.

The Germans made sixteen more attempts at Karachi, which is the only place they can reach us, but their efforts grow increasingly feeble. Most engagements last only hours compared with up to a week in late ’44 and early ’45. We suffered just 6,000 of whom the new front-line hospitals were able to save all but 750. In nearly two years of fighting over this place they have lost 270,000 men to our 56,000 and the lately the ratios have been more uneven than that. Perhaps they will not, after all, be able to stand it indefinitely.

The Russian Front continues silent, which suits us.

Manpower reserves actually increased by 5,000, encouraging but not enough to recruit the new German-style ‘armored infantry’ divisions that the generals want. The scientists have constructed something they call a “semi-fission” explosive, although we lack either the heavy bombers or rockets to use it. Perhaps in a year or so.

Not much is happening anywhere else either. The British and Italians are fight over Northwest Africa and Sudan, but without decisive results.
 
Exterior Lines

November 6, 1946.

As in Curitiba in 1940, we timed the landings at Abadan for late October so that by election day there would be successes to report but few casualties. We also continued the policy of carefully targeted development in the South to reward leaders willing to abandon states’ rights and rejoin the economic and political mainstream. With two wars on the Democrats could have little to say, and little way to get anyone to listen now that more than a fourth of households have moving picture radios.

In fact things went both well and badly. In the Senate we replaced one former Dixiecrat but lost seven seats to Democrats, giving us 51 to 13 Dixiecrats and 32 Democrats. In the House, where we benefited more from targeting, we gained 21 at the expense of the Dixiecrats while losing 17 to the Democrats; we got 53.5% of the vote overall, almost exactly the same as two years ago (1946 RL R seats and vote share). We now hold 246 to 26 Dixecrats and 163 Democrats.

Party and business wise men have been at a loss to explain the Democrats’ strong showing across so many states; some say that after ten years there is simply a certain amount of fatigue with the administration. Leftists claim that the results show the desire of workers to organize for even higher wages, taking control of work away from management to improve “safety,” and all the usual rest of it. But with full employment everywhere and no significant strikes since 1942 this is not credible. It probably does mean, though, that however much Whitaker and Baxter demand of us in 1948 we will have to pay.

We have opened the Persian front. On October 15 the first of 29 divisions sailed from Karachi; Mac was furious to watch Clark, Bradley and Patton sail, as he could not be spared from command of the defenses. We have advanced to the outskirts of Tehran, and if all goes well we will reach the Caspian Sea next week. This will cut off some 90 German divisions from resupply by land although not by sea. In India it took complete occupation of the coastline to render the enemy helpless, but that will not be possible here. Four navy task forces have been deployed to stop convoys into Chah Bahar. In fact the enemy is retreating as fast as they can, so we will have to send more men West to stop them breaking out.

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Last week more than half a million Communist forces attacked our lines in the Ulan Hot mountains of Manchuria. Since they outnumbered our and Korean forces more than ten to one, we had to retreat. We have no reserves--ten new armored infantry divisions have been authorized but the first will not be ready until January-- we certainly cannot back out of Persia. Hodges will just have to manage. His investments in Korea and Japan, to say nothing of South America, should give him all the right incentives.

The Empire on which the sun is setting is advancing in Sudan and Egypt but losing ground in North Africa. Part of India, at least, will not be returned to them. We liberated the Muslim regions, now called ‘Pakistan’ so that they can pay to maintain the fortified lines at Karachi and, eventually, help defend them. When convenient we will liberate the rest of India too.
 

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One Out of Two Isn’t Bad

January 1, 1947.

Even after liberating India, Pakistan, Iraq, and Kuwait, production is up another 2% since midyear. German production is down slightly, so we now have a 4% advantage. The rate of infrastructure funding is slowing since 22 of 38 cities have reached saturation; industry projects in 13 cities continue full steam ahead but cannot yield more than 4%-5% growth annually unless we allocate not only more money but more manpower, which we do not have.

We managed a $1.1 billion fiscal surplus, while R.F.C. assets expanded by $39 billion to $301 billion, 125% of national income. The bonds continue to soak up excess wages admirably, so the government subscribe just $10 billion (to $90 billion). R.F.C. is not quite breaking even yet, as some of the portfolio investments are not yet fully performing. Revenues including sales tax and tariffs will be about $8 billion vs. $12 billion in interest payments.

Manpower remains the serious concern. We generated 288,000 fit men this year, but economic expansion absorbed 239,000, the merchant marine 24,000, and war losses about 45,000. The Navy raised 9,000 by selling old ships but the first armored infantry division needed 14,000, leaving us down 19,000 for the year. More ships will be sold, including the two oldest carriers, creating a uniform fleet that can operate at 3000 km (except for some old BBs used for bombardment), but some replacements will be built so manning the remaining nine authorized divisions will be a challenge.

The war in Persia goes well; Baku has fallen and we continue to advance into the Caucasus even in Winter. The roughly 100 Nazi divisions in trapped in Eastern Persia have not attacked Karachi since we landed at Abadan nor, since mid-November, have they attacked Westward either. With 75 enemy merchantmen and convoy escorts sunk since October 15th they must be running low on supplies.

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Our hopes for a round the world tour have been sunk by the British, however, who have recovered most of Egypt including the Canal, although the Italians have reconquered most of North Africa, Libya, and Crete. Marching all the way across Ukraine is not an attractive prospect. Even if we can bring home some troops, there is no European port within range of Boston or Port-au-Prince; we may have to seize the Azores.

Northeast Asia is looking dangerous. We have been driven out of the Ulan Hot mountains twice, most recently in early December. Although enemy forces have not appeared yet, it does not look likely that we can recapture the region a second time. We must hope that Winter will slow them down. How we’ll get through next year is not clear.

Both wars have now been going on for nearly three years, since January and April ’44, although neither with active campaigning more than about half that time. With an election behind us we have nearly two years to complete the German war. That in turn should get us a popular mandate to finish off the Bolsheviks too.

Sliders (Paternal Autocrat):
Standing_army: 9 (1947 slider +1). Max inf org. 110%.

1946 infrastructure appropriations:
South 17: Washington D.C. 12, Clarksburg 4, Birmingham (eight year total 232/215).
Other U.S. 25: Boston 12, Charleston, San Francisco 4 each, Milwaukee, Minneapolis 2 each, Harrisburg (326/311).
Conservatorships 22: San Jose 7, Santo Domingo, Port-au-Prince 5 each, Guatemala City, Panama 2 each, San Salvador (155/139).
Japan 3: Nagoya 2, Tokyo (19/16).
Grand total: 732/681.

Industry 25: New York, Newark, Atlantic City, Philadelphia, Harrisburg, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Chicago, Los Angeles, Louisville, Lubbock, Dallas 2 each, Detroit (104/76).

Synthetics (Newark): 0 (10/10).

Reactor (Chicago): 1 (8/8). 1 Semi-fission bomb.

Rocket Test (Los Angeles): 0 (9/8).
 

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I have to admit, this is the most interesting American AAR I've read in quite some time. Please keep up the good work.
 
Chaim, you put my own AAR to shame.

This is really good, best AoD AAR ever? I think so.

Reminds me of this thing on AH.com called "The Fountainhead Filibuster"
 
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Chaim, you put my own AAR to shame.

This is really good, best AoD AAR ever? I think so.

Reminds me of this thing on AH.com called "The Fountainhead Filibuster"

I'll convey your nice words to the President. Maybe you'll get an invitation to purchase a special series of RFC bonds embossed with his picture. I've been away from this for nearly a year (the P keeps me busy), but have gotten back recently and hope to post again soon. The first half of 1947 went well against Germany, less well against the Russkies, and not really well at all at home.

Q re start: IIRC a vanilla 1936 start. Only important edits have been the availability dates of a few American politicians, and in one or two cases one of their game properties.