Werewolf Lite CCXXXVII: Monster Reunion

[the_hdk]

Just Curious, is there precedent for a newb being a wolf?

yes happens now and than. I was a wolf in my 4th game. and IIRC rysz was a wolf in his first 3 games in a row

[esemesas]

Just Curious, is there precedent for a newb being a wolf?

I was a wolf in my first Big and second Lite, which I won, too. Roles are usually drafted randomly.

[randakar]

yes happens now and than. I was a wolf in my 4th game. and IIRC rysz was a wolf in his first 3 games in a row

I was a wolf in my first and second big games.
So yeah, it happens

[randakar]

Currently alive:
2. Rendap as Stankenstein
3. randakar as Ur-Quan Master 669
12. Comm. Cody as a Phantom
16. snoopdogg as Fwiffo, the Spathi Starship Captain

The king hunt is very interesting. King was a good choice because he knows how to analyse, but he isn't the most cleared person by far - Rendap is.
Well, in theory. I'm not going to discount having a really brutal sellout werewolf in this game. Not with the Seer dead night 0.

What I fear today is seeing a mindless wagon on Comm. Cody without much discussion. That's all fine and dandy if he IS our man, but I'm not going to let myself be lulled into a false sense of security. This is the last day. The day where every little bit of effort counts. What I want to see is a two-way tie on the two most suspicious people. That gives us at least a 50% chance to catch the wolf, and if that wolf is honourable, he will unvote the other guy at the last second.

The question is: Who is it?

Personally, I think that if it's rendap, he has been playing a really smooth game so far in terms of convincing the village that he's good. I'm going to take a look at him - like I'm going to look at everyone - but for now I will advocate running up comm cody and snoopdogg. Tie them up, see what happens.

Vote snoopdogg

[randakar]

.. hold on a second. Missed someone there:

6. Eternaly_Lost as a Tarrasque subbed by Falc 2.0

.. right.

Never mind all that 'last day' babble then.

Let's rebuild that list:


Currently alive:
2. Rendap as Stankenstein
3. randakar as Ur-Quan Master 669
6. Eternaly_Lost as a Tarrasque subbed by Falc 2.0
12. Comm. Cody as a Phantom
16. snoopdogg as Fwiffo, the Spathi Starship Captain


5 people alive. 2 days to parity. We have two chances to find the wolf. Comm. Cody, snoopdogg, or falc. Which is it? (Or is it, in fact, rendap the brutal sellout? )
If we allow a tie between two villagers today the game will end. We cannot have that happen. So we *still* need to be vigilant, or the village loses.

I'm not going to let that happen.
I will go over all 4 candidates now. That will take a bit, so bear with me.

[Falc]

Well it ain't me.

Who might have the skills to pull off such an undercover game? Randakar or snoopdogg, I'd say. Rendap has been a bit too active in the lynches, I'd say.

Of course, Cody has been very silent.

[Kingepyon]

Kingepyon is hunted by the wolves

Probably a good decision by the wolves, but it still sucks

[randakar]

Day 1:

Now no one will be able to protect me from the ULTIMATE EVIL. Hey Randy, can I see those slave shield specs again? Just curious.

Clearly this was Najs handiwork.
Vote Najs.

Clearly, it wasn't.
Najs, in fact, was voting EURO there. We all know why, right?

Vote Najs.

.. and there comes comm cody. Two-word post. No reason specified - not even "LSST". Which would have been valid, in this case.

Vote randakar I think I saw some pink flesh under that skin of his.

I had no votes at that point. Not entirely a throwaway, but close. Especially if it sticks.

Unvote Najs. Vote Boris.
I don't follow the crowd.

Really? Big crowd indeed .. not. Najs only had two votes, boris had one, before this switch. This effectively switches the run up from Najs to Boris.

Very significant, this vote. Would a wolf place such a vote at a critical juncture? I doubt it.

Must!

Smash!

Random!

VOTE Gradient

NO!

Master Not!

Unvote Gradient

A Lot!

With!

Votes!

Close!

And Smash!!!

VOTE Najs

A vote for Najs the easy bandwagon target. Or perhaps, making a tie? The interesting fact about this vote is that it makes complete sense for a wolf to vote this way, as the resulting count is:

It's a count of votes! 7 hours 30 minutes to deadline:

EUROO7 - 3 - Najs(69), SPLIT(82), Falc(88)
Boris - 3 - gigau(80), snoop(87), Kingepyon(89)
Najs - 3 - Nautilu(70), Comm. Cody(78), Rendap(90)
snoopdogg - 1 - randakar(74)
Comm. Cody - 1 - Boris(79)
Nautilu - 1 - Gradiant(84)
randakar - 1 - Eternaly_Lost(86)

Not-voted: tamius, the_hdk, EUROO7

Then we have the infamous Tamius vote:

Vote THE_SPLIT

for committing a heinous grammar crime.

Unvote Nautilu, Vote EUROO7

Right. Pushing Euro ahead in the three way tie.
Should have seen this yesterday .. ah well.

Unvote Snoopdogg
Vote EUROO7

No, I don't know why.

4 minutes between these two posts. Not sure if I had seen gradient's vote or not. Not that it matters much:

Unvote Euro, Vote Nautilu

Brings us to:

Boris - 4 - gigau(80), snoop(87), Kingepyon(89), EUROO7,
EUROO7 - 3 - SPLIT(82), Falc(88), Gradiant, Randy,
Najs - 3 - Nautilu(70), Comm. Cody(78), Rendap(90)
Nautilu -1- Gradiant,
Comm. Cody - 1 - Boris(79)
randakar - 1 - Eternaly_Lost(86)
Split -1- Tamius,
tamius -1- Najs,


Not-voted: the_hdk,

Are you a wolf?

I'm as much a wolf as you are.

Implicating snoop as another wolf. But this is euro - he tried to make me look like a wolf, too. (Later. I'll get to that.)

Both wolves, eh? Easy game

Do you really think we'd be that blatant about it Randy?
...
That was a rhetorical question. Don't answer it. Please.

Absolutely

Not if you keep sacrificing your packmates, Randy. You truly lack all sorts of ruth.

To be entirely blunt: Sometimes, they just deserve it.

See what I mean? My vote is on Euro, there, and here he tries to make it look like I'm selling him out.
Tsk ..
Sometimes I should listen to my gut more. This one is blatant.

And a new euro count:

Boris - 5 - gigau(80), snoop(87), Kingepyon(89), EUROO7, hdk,
Najs - 4 - Nautilu(70), Comm. Cody(78), Rendap(90), Gradiant,
EUROO7 - 3 - SPLIT(82), Falc(88), Randy,
Comm. Cody - 1 - Boris(79)
randakar - 1 - Eternaly_Lost(86)
Split -1- Tamius,
tamius -1- Najs,


No vote:

If anyone is wondering *why* I'm voting Euro: Reis died tonight. That in itself is a reason to suspect him.

Would EUROO7 hunt reis on night 0 twice in a row? Yes. Yes he would.

This was the final count of the day. Boris died.

At this point I would say that snoop's vote was important and decisive. If it was a sellout it was absolutely the most deadly sellout I have seen in a while. Falls plainly in the category "getting your packmate killed", in fact.

So, I'm going to change my vote. And then look at day 2.

Unvote snoopdogg
Vote eternaly lost / falc v2

edit2:
I choose him because he and Comm Cody appear most wolfish if I look at day 1. If that changes I will revisit my vote.

edit:
Not entirely done with day 1, it seems. There's this:

I make it a rule to always kill reis as quickly as possible, no matter my role.

However, everyone knows that. And everyone will take advantage of it. If I'm playing, reis will always die quickly, be it by my own hand or a hand that wishes to frame me.

To which I respond:

That means there's only one possible course of action for the village to take if reis dies to a hunt on night 0.
Especially if the seer dies simultaneously.

While we still have time for some discussion, I would like to continue Najs train of thoughts!

At a 3-way tie, Tamius comes and decides to make a throwaway.

Thoughts?

That's a sorta wishy-washy way to accuse Tamius, isn't it?
And I do notice that sort of thing:

You mean "Lynch tamius"?

Not nessecarily. I'm just looking to see if we can get more information out of day 1 than normal.

Backing off so soon, Rendap?
I will get back to this later.

[randakar]

Day 2 kicks off quickly:

Great! We got one.

And I got myself up on the target list with my question regarding Tamius.

Still something that I want to look more into. You just have to figure out if I would make such a blatant attempt at saving a packmate. If you believe I would, I suggest you lynch me. Your choice...

VOTE Tamius

Again with the wishy-washy. Why bother with "hey, look at me, I did something suspicious!" attempt to deflect suspicion? And then there is the wolf tell in the form of "Great! We got one." exclamation..
Sigh. Maybe I'm just too paranoid for my own good..

Vote Najs

Unvote Najs, Vote Tamuis

Vote Tamuis

The newbies pile on Tamius. Comm. Cody is the significant one. Third vote on tamius - sellout time or not?
Nobody else has any votes at all yet ..
All I know is that deciding this question means deciding whether we should run him up or not.

Tamius complains:

What did I do to deserve two misspelt votes?

Rendap, I'm not exactly going to break a tie if I don't have to. You know me.

One thing people should know, is that "doing what you usually do as a villager" can turn into an obsession for wolves. Making them completely oblivious to the fact that that is, by itself, a wolfish trait

And this is why you fail.

Vote Teemocil

Euro piles on his packmate, too. But not for long:

Unvote Tamius
Vote Gradiant

Talk, will you! Talk!

I agree with Euro, btw. Explaining your actions and attempting to defend yourself might have saved your rear yesterday, Gradient. Just posting 2-word votes means you turn into an easy lynch target.

Vote Nautilu.
He's naughty.

A bit of a throwaway from snoop here.
I will put my vote there later, but with a lot more reasoning behind it than this

I'm undecided. The way he did it .. he might have thought himself smart.

That comment of his sure puzzled me. The only thing we can say for sure from it is that rendap and tamius probably aren't both wolves.
Because let's face it - tamius's vote *was* suspicious.

Vote tamius23

As a nice counterweight to rendap.

In case you're wondering if you can make a case against me, note that at this point I've argued against Euro AND tamius. I don't think I've mentioned any other candidates yet.


That leads to this count:

Tamius -5- Rendap, Gradiant, Cody, gigau, Randy,
Rendap -3- Najs, Split, Kinge,
Gradie -1- EUROO7,
Naughty Nautilu -1- Spoopdogg,


No Vote: Nautilu, hdk, tamius, Losty

And quite a bit later:

Too many on tamius here.

Unvote tamius23

Not sure I like rendap as an alternative.

The list of najs voters is thus: Nautilu(70), Comm. Cody(78), Rendap(90), Gradiant

Gradiant and Comm. Cody I will give the newbie free pass for today. That leaves nautilu and rendap.

Vote nautilu

But I retract my statement about not liking Rendap. There may very well be a there there.
edit: never mind. I fail at reading the votecounts for some reason.

You may debate this all you like. I was wrong. But to unvote tamius wasn't. Not in that situation.

Sorry folks, got a bit carried away

Final Votecount, Day 2:

tamius - 5 - Rendap, Gradiant, Comm. Cody, gigau, the_hdk
Rendap - 4 - Najs, SPLIT, Kingepyon, Nautilu
Nautilu - 2 - snoopdogg, randakar
Gradiant - 1 - EUROO7

No-vote - Eternaly_Lost, tamius

Update will soon follow

That closes day 2.

edit:
The only real significant vote to examine here is Comm. Cody piling on Tamius early. This is an inexperienced player - is he doing a sellout vote here, after seeing two others go after Tamius in quick succession?
It really depends on what his packmates told him, and how this person thinks. I really have no idea because of the quiet playstyle of this person. I'm inclined to say "no", simply because he's not the most experienced player we have around here. But I could be wrong.

Still, my money stays on EL / falc v2 so far.

[randakar]

Day 3:

Rendap starts with a piece of analysis:

From this, I'd clear Gigau. Major league blood feud by throwing 2 packmates under the bus!

He could have gone for me instead day 2.

Gigau could have made an alibi gone wrong day 1, but that does not make sense day 2.

I would also place Cody as a unlikely wolf. Voted by Boris and voting Tam.

If we say points:

2 points for Gigau
1½ point for Cody
1 point for Snoop, Kinge, Euro, Me and Gradiant.
½ point for Split
0 for falc2, randy, najs and Nautilu

Goodie points for Euro? Not so much, Rendap. This fails to account for Euro's packmate sellout MO
If he's a wolf he has put his packmate nicely out of the suspect zone.

Anyway, for now I'm going to go with Randy. At least until I have time to think things over a bit more.

Vote Randakar

Double points for going after me if he's a wolf. Still sore over that incident where I played you into giving me your identity and your scanlist before I ate you, Rendap?

All in all, my favorite suspects currently are Najs, Randakar and Nautilu. Not sure yet who to pick though.

Gigau still has a thing or two to learn ;-)

Having just read my subbing-back-in PM, I can confirm that I am NOT a wolf.

I must say, you've been doing well.

(PS: I'm now a zombie tarrasque, no?)

Either way, let's look at THE_SPLIT. Why? The way he and I've been interacting lately, it might be the reason for my early hunt.

DAY 1

Put a second vote on Euro when Najs had 3 and everyone else had 1. Rather unusual explanation too:
Also, SPLIT gets one single vote from Tamius. Alibi?

DAY 2

Second vote on Rendap when Tamius already had 3

VOTE SPLIT

Finally, a player that actually plays the game in the EL slot.
This is a rather convenient piece of cover. Of course there's a bunch of history there, so it might very well be innocent.
Or it might just really be a convenient piece of cover

If Najs is also a wolf, to break the tie, he can only vote for Euro (i still assume to be a villager in my theory)... thus eliminates a villager, branding him as a potential wolf.

Of course, his strategy backfired, but here's the explanation i can find to this throwaway vote.

So for now :

Vote Najs

Vote Najs

The only explanation I have for Comm Cody's vote here is the theory forwarded by Gigau. Pretty much in keeping with his MO this game.

Nice defence Randy. BUT, you might want to check the timestamps on your voting once again. I can't see that you have voted closer than 4½ hours to deadline.......

Like I said yesterday I need to think more about this....

Rendap accusing me of lying. I call it 'creative exaggeration' at best. And honestly, probably it was just me being a bit fuzzy about timelines

I'm of two minds about Rendap. He has good reasons to be paranoid about me, so this is to be expected.
Again, however: This could easily be a very decent piece of creative cover.


Something significant happens here, though:

Why would you unvote someone you're tied with in order to vote for someone who is not in the running for being silly?

Yes, but that makes sense only if Euro is a wolf... what are the chances we tied three wolves on the first day ? or am i missing something ?

You know, you guys are right. EURO still is a pretty good suspect here.

Vote EUROO7

That's *after* a long post of mine debunking the accusations against me, and going after Falc (v2) for his post regarding SPLIT that completely dismisses all evidence potentially clearing SPLIT out of hand.
If I'd taken the time and effort to truly debunk that we might not even have lynched SPLIT later..

However: The point of all this, is that this is the stage where I start thinking Euro is a good candidate again, and leads up to me making a case:

You know, you guys are right. Strawman still is a pretty good suspect here.

Vote Strawman

Randy, shut your mouth if you've nothing intelligent to say, would you? You're embarrasing yourself, Jesus Christ.

I have a nice quote that applies perfectly here:

If the facts are on your side, pound the facts. If the law is on your side, pound the law. If neither the facts nor the law are on your side, pound the table.

But I digress.

Insults aren't going to work with me, my dear friend.
Thing is, if anyone hunted reis, it was you. Same goes for piling votes on Boris. I've seen you do it before, I'm sure you'll do it again, and therefore, you remain a suspect.

A tad strong. I've seen Reis hunted first or second thing several times now. It seems an every other game occurrence or so.

Everyone remains a suspect until the game is over. Without the seer, ridiculous luck or incompetent wolves that's the only way the village can possibly win. Fixating on the same person/ handful of people repeatedly just plays into the wolfs hands.

I go after Euro properly now. Snoopdogg defends him.

I find this response very strange, you know. I point out SPLIT's voting and the not-so-villagery sides to them, and you jump on my afterthought where Tamius gave him a possible alibi vote? And the best case against him, day 2, you dismiss with a curt "I'm not buying this"?

Allow me to point out that I wasn't the first to notice Tamius vote on SPLIT:

Rendap even followed that up the next day and got Tamius lynched mainly for that vote.

And, lo and behold, you seemed to respond just as dismissively then...

My top list of suspects: Euro, Randakar, Split, Najs

Falc misrepresenting my position. I didn't "respond dismissively" at all. I said that tamius was pretty suspicious, in fact. How is that dismissing the case, pray tell?

One of these two people must be a villager and be just misguided. But the other one .. hm.

A tad strong. I've seen Reis hunted first or second thing several times now. It seems an every other game occurrence or so.

Let me point back a few pages where EUROO7 himself states he will kill reis at the first opportunity every single game he plays in.
Euro says he can't be held accountable because people may use it to incriminate him. But I find that unlikely. Most wolves don't play that deliberately into a single person's known behavioural pattern.
The only real possibility is a random hunt targeting reis. And I cannot really discern the difference.

Everyone remains a suspect until the game is over. Without the seer, ridiculous luck or incompetent wolves that's the only way the village can possibly win. Fixating on the same person/ handful of people repeatedly just plays into the wolfs hands.

What I meant by that is that Euro's standard spiel appears to be: Hunt reis, vote a packmate on day 1. His behaviour is exactly what I expect from an EURO wolf. And I don't know how to get rid of that suspicion other than by having him lynched.
And what's even more peculiar is how he accused me of being a ruthless packmate voter the second I put that first vote on him. As if he was deliberately trying to make me look bad in advance. Really. What do you think how things would look if Euro died and he turns out to be a wolf? That post was designed to make me look evil. Really.

No, the longer I think about it, the more I am feel I'm on the right thrack here.
So my vote stays, until either Euro dies, or I die.

We know how this ended. This was the core of my case against Euro.

I find this response very strange, you know. I point out SPLIT's voting and the not-so-villagery sides to them, and you jump on my afterthought where Tamius gave him a possible alibi vote? And the best case against him, day 2, you dismiss with a curt "I'm not buying this"?

I'm not buying this because I do not care how many "not-so-villagery sides" his voting behaviour had, if a single event may obliterate all that shady stuff by means of very good evidence of his innocence.
Yet, that particular bit you are glossing over with a single, curt "possible alibi vote?" sentence.
You shouldn't be tossing up empty statements like this. Look at the actual post. In context. What was the count? What was he responding to? WHY was that vote made when it was made?
And then, and ONLY then, can you conclude this particular event didn't actually clear anyone.

I stand by this. People can act suspicious and still be villagers. If you really are a villager, however, there will be a tell somewhere. Behaviour that makes absolutely zero sense as a wolf. A vote, a stupid comment, general behaviour, and sometimes it's one of the known wolves voting them. Given time, it's always possible to spot the wolves by eliminating the other suspects based on circumstantial evidence.
You just don't always have that time ..

And, lo and behold, you seemed to respond just as dismissively then...

Vague accusation without substantiation. What did I say, exactly? Did I really respond dismissively?
I kinda doubt that, because I felt there was something to that case at the time. Not to mention later on.[/QUOTE]

My response to Falc's misrepresentation of my position.
Was this deliberate? Is Falc the type to try and steer villagers into lynching a particular person as a wolf? At this time Euro is still alive, and while I am going after Euro pretty solidly, nobody else seems to follow. While there *are* people suspicious of me.
Drat. I wish King was still alive. He'd have an opinion on this for sure.

EUROO, I am seriously pissed at you. You were here, you had time to argue, yet you didn't vote.

OK, we need subs for Nautilu and EUROO. hdk, reis, anyone?

Final Votecount, Day 3:

(3) Najs - gigau, Cody, Kingepyon

(2) Split - E_L/Falc, Najs
(1) Randy - Rendap, SPLIT

(1) E_L/Falc - snoop
(1) gigau - Gradiant
(1) EURO - Randy

nv: EURO, Nautilu

Thank you, Najs.

Thus ends day 3. No pressure on any wolves at all, so not much to be learned from the votes here.

[Rendap]

Day 1:

Boris - 5 - gigau(80), snoop(87), Kingepyon(89), EUROO7/hdk2, hdk,
Najs - 4 - Nautilu/Najs2(70), Comm. Cody(78), Rendap(90), Gradiant,
EUROO7/hdk2 - 3 - SPLIT(82), Falc1.0(88), Randy,
Comm. Cody - 1 - Boris(79)
randakar - 1 - Eternaly_Lost(falc2.0) (86)
Split -1- Tamius
tamius -1- Najs

Falc hunted

Day 2:

tamius - 5 - Rendap, Gradiant, Comm. Cody, gigau, the_hdk
Rendap - 4 - Najs, SPLIT, Kingepyon, Nautilu/Najs2
Nautilu/Najs2 - 2 - snoopdogg, randakar
Gradiant - 1 - EUROO7/hdk2

No-vote - Eternaly_Lost (Falc2), tamius

hdk hunted

Day 3:

(3) Najs - gigau, Cody, Kingepyon

(2) Split - E_L/Falc2, Najs
(2) Randy - Rendap, SPLIT

(1) E_L/Falc2 - snoop
(1) gigau - Gradiant
(1) EURO/hdk2 - Randy

Gigau hunted

hdk2 subs for Euro, Najs2 for Nautilu

Day 4:

the_hdk2 - 4 - Kingepyon, Falc, Comm. Cody, SPLIT
SPLIT - 4 - Rendap, randakar, hdk2, Gradiant

randakar - 1 - Najs2
Najs2 - 1 - snoop

Not-voted: None... thankfully

Najs2 hunted

Day 5:

Gradiant - 4 - snoop, Falc, Comm. Cody, Rendap
Comm. Cody - 3 - Kingepyon, randakar, Gradiant

Kinge hunted

[randakar]

Day 4: The day the_hdk and Najs sub back in and immediately get lynched by the village

First things first:

Your logic is far from its usual quality here Randakar...



The people tied were Boris, Euro and Najs. If those were 3 wolves, then Tamius is the fourth and then it's not even about candidates, it's simple maths that Split isn't a wolf.



Ah, but SPLIT had NO votes yet. If you need an extra candidate, pick someone who has a vote already! Tamius is known to like ties, so putting a fourth guy at 2 votes wouldn't raise suspicion. I expect him to know that.



But a 'throwaway' vote is the perfect time for an alibi. You're a wolf, you don't want to vote anywhere near the tie for fear of exposing yourself. You need to vote someone. When are you going to get a better time to cast a vote on a packmate without putting him in danger? Tamius clearly wasn't thinking ruthlessly, he'd have voted Boris if he was.

For me, the odds are better than 50% that that was an alibi vote.

But let's not forget that that wasn't actually the key to my suspicion, Split's own votes were far from innocent. Although, I must say that Najs' innocence makes his day 1 vote less worthy of suspicion.

I'm posting this mostly for posterity. Falc was going after SPLIT this day, and his reasoning, hindsight being 20/20, sucked.


In lieu of having King alive, I'm going to duplicate things he said before:

Second is Comm Cody. He has been happily bandwagoning without posting a reason the entire game. He jumped on Najs early to put him up to 3 votes to Euro's and snoop's 1, then continues on day 2 to bandwagon tamius. Same argument here: was he a newbie that was told by someone to alibi vote? Or is he just doing random stuff. The lack of reasons and the pushing a single target ahead would normally make me suspicious, but is it just him not knowing what he's doing?

Honestly, occam's razor may very well apply - and then Comm Cody is our man.
But I'm not going to take that at face value just yet.

The next is randakar. randakar claims that he is not a wolf because he has not alibied on one yet. Which I would agree with to some extent, but randakar doesn't like to make obvious alibi votes. On day 1 he switched from snoop to euro after euro had gotten some votes already (I'll come back to euro/hdk soon) and then on day 2, he helps push tamius 2 votes ahead, and decides that this was a bad idea, and switches off to a a third party, Nautilu, who only has 1 vote at the time. Which confuses me, as randy obviously chose tamius as his favourite target, but then changed when he saw the count. It's obvious why he didn't put it on Rendap - he stated earlier that he didn't like Rendap as a target, and it would still lead to tamius getting lynched, and he could not be accused of bandwagoning if tamius wasn't a wolf.

This is for the last wolf to chew on. If you are a real man, you will come after me today, using stuff like this.
Bring it.

Continuing on with snoop!

Snoop put a pretty important vote on Boris. There's alibi voting, and then there's getting your packmate killed. This falls under getting your packmate killed. I've seen it happen, so I'm not going to completely rule snoop out, but he's likely not a wolf. On day two he puts a vote on Nautilu, doesn't say why, and keeps his vote there. This move is consistent with day 1, when he took a vote off of Najs, who had a couple vote lead, and put it onto Boris. Why Nautilu instead of Rendap? Maybe he knew tamius was a wolf and didn't want to seem like he was saving someone? I don't really know, but it's something to think about. Day 3 saw an early vote on E_L/Falc that stuck. A decent reason to lynch E_L, little information and inactivity, with 4 days remaining until parity. He missed me in his list of "The people who've voted wolfs", though, which makes me sad If snoop is a wolf, this is a game well played. Consistent with his votes, with only the Nautilu vote on day 2 making me question him.

Good thing we agree on Snoop, then

Rendap is next. Rendap falls under the category of providing unintentional(?) assistance to a known wolf. Lucky for us, hdk was there to set us right, and we ended up getting Boris anyway. Rendap did do something interesting on the end of day 1, start of day 2. He pushed tamius for an odd throw away during a 3 way tie, and suggested tamius for a lynch. He was right. Considering Rendap was up for a lynch due to his bad luck(?) on day 1, this really saved him. So is this Rendap creating an alibi for himself at the expense of a packmate? I hope not, or I haven't been paying attention to Rendap very well. He doesn't seem like the type to be that cut-throat. Maybe he can vote a packmate as an alibi, but lead the charge in getting one lynched? I don't think Rendap is that kind of player.

Again, mostly we're agreeing. This is the reason why I highly doubt it's Rendap that we should be going after.
Even though I won't bloody well take it at face value without giving the matter some thought

Last is E_L/Falc. This one is hard. A throw away on day 1, and a vote on split on day 3. Falc is one who will kill of his packmates in order to make himself appear "clear" so it's very hard to actually clear Falc. Falc is a good target for a lynch because we have time (I'm not suggesting we lynch all of euro, split, Falc - just 1 to cut down the confusion later) as we know nothing about him and he is very likely going to alibi vote on someone later.

Keep this in mind. Not sure if it will come into play. But it might.


(I'm about to leave. May not come back before deadline. Consider yourselves warned.)
(edit: Yep. Gotta run. Be back when I'll be back.)

[reis91]

Randy, come on, you must try harder and fill up an entire page with your analysis! I know you can do it!

[randakar]

Randy, come on, you must try harder and fill up an entire page with your analysis! I know you can do it!

No, sorry, I can't. I really have a train to catch right now ;-)
Thanks for the encouragement though

[Rendap]

First off - Randy, you should know me better by now....

Yes, I am still sore over that stunt you pulled, but I do NOT metagame you. I have gone after you due to activity in the thread, nothing else! And the goodie point I gave came from throwing Boris under the bus. Was that a mistake? Yes - But at that time, that was the information we had.

Since I (once again) haven't had a lot of time to look at things, I have to throw in a vote without much more analysis, so I'll "only" look at the votes:

Snoop: Ties Boris with Najs 2-2 day 1. Since then only voted villagers.
Cody: 3rd voter on both Tamius and hdk2.
Me: Started the run on Tamius - Besides that only villagers/unknown.
Randy: Voted hdk2 day 1, else only villagers.
Falc2: second voter on hdk2.

Cody is either an extremely coldblooded packmate that joins on 2 packmates with "late" votes where other can be found easily. Or a villager. I think the second.
Me: Day 1, with 2 packmates in the running, I try to bring attention to the third packmate. I can do this to clear myself OR tamius OR I'm just a villager. I know what I am. If you don't believe me, I suggest that you lynch me today and good luck with finding the last wolf.
Randy: We at least got some more information now than the other day and Randy looks a little more cleared now. I'm still not 100% convinced though.
Snoop: "Early" voter on Boris after switching to him. I'm not convinced....
Falc2: Voted second hdk2, but I'm more interested in day 1 at this point. Just before Snoop switches to Boris, Najs1 leads with 2 votes. 2 wolves have 1 vote. E_L desides to push another candidate and votes Randy.

I know my analysis is not very good at this point, but I'll go with Falc for today and hope that it's correct.

I will not be around until after deadline, so my vote will stand regardless of what happens.

VOTE Falc

[snoopdogg]

]Vote Cody. Analasys is incoming. It shall be done.

[snoopdogg]

Randakar: I'll start with the easiest to me. Randakar is a not wolf. Plain and simple. Would Euro make Randy look like a wolf and fight with him regardless of their roles? Yes. But Randy would not put his head down and charge at Euro on day 2 if they were both wolves. I feel like I know Randy's play well enough to say that just wouldn't happen. I also caught this looking over the thread:

Uh .. wait. I *defended* Euro?
In what dimension do you live?
He's pretty high on my suspect list right now, you know.
Starting to be less sure on it, mind - not sure why. Maybe too many people who are convinced of his innocence?

Euro/HDK is now about to be lynched and Randy is suddenly *less* sure about it? To me this is a very strong indication of his innocence. If he knew what the result would be and was his packmate, I think for sure he'd be preparing to finish burying Euro and use it to make himself look completely clear. I can say more if anyone disagrees about Randy, but until then, he's innocent. Snoop says so. Moving on...

Rendap: Randy says he's the most cleared. Disagree. One important thing that has not yet been pointed out about Rendap: His most clearing vote is on Tamius day 2. This vote came first thing, and suddenly there was a bandwagon on it that no one could see coming. Later on, if Rendap wanted to switch, the option wasn't really there as the only other choice that day was... Rendap. Has been active and doing a pretty good job analysing. So not the best suspect to me right now, but far from 'Randy level' cleared to me. 2 out of 5 waffle stars.

Kinge: Was voting on HDK and Boris. Has been doing a good job analysing and looking for waffles, and if he was one he'd be playing a very ruthless game. Frankly from seeing his playstyle, I don't think he'll do that under any circumstances. He's no Euro or Snoopdogg, he never looks to butcher his own pack if he feels it necessary. 1 out of 5 waffle stars. Maybe less. Edit: Is dead. 0 out of 5. Nevermind this...

The Falc formally known as E_L: Unfortunately we were left with very little to go on from E_L. Fairly meaningless vote on Randy day 1, nothing day 2. Since coming in he has voted Euro/HDK, and done a good job looking like a villager, albeit still a somewhat queit one. But if he did sub in for an absentee wolf, joining a pack with a subbed in mate who was being targetted, well... I'd sell out my packmate pretty quick likely. 3 out of 5 waffle stars, maybe more.

Snoopdogg: I am not a wolf. Analysing my own behavior would be disingenuous at this point. Will hopefully be able to defend myself if/when needed, but no point doing it here. In this post I find the last waffle.

Who's left hmm...

The Codywolf: Not quite as wolfy as I thought looking back. He voted HDK, and he voted Tamius. Tamius is particularly significant because he started a bandwagon when the day easily could've passed by without putting Tamius in danger. Does a new player do this? Idk, on the other hand his votes and general behavior have been confusing, so there's a large 'you never know' element in there. Kinge suspected him last night also, and has since disappeared. Would a new player do this? Heck yeah. 3 out of 5 waffle stars? Most difficult player to gauge by far.

This is still a little lighter than I would have liked to put in, but it's not bad. And it'll have to do I think.
It seems a tie today is being pushed. Personally I'd rather run up one person today and have another day tomorrow. We'll have another player removed, who even if not suspect still helps us.

[Falc]

I have to say, I don't buy the way Randy is clearing snoop. His day 1 vote was still very early. Did things end up going wrong for him if he's a wolf? Yes. That's the game. Votes are like dominoes, except you never know exactly where the next domino is or in which direction it'll fall.

Let's not forget that, at the point where snoop cast his vote, neither Euro nor Tamius had voted yet AND there were about 18 hours left until deadline. Plus there was a 7 hour gap to the next vote.

That being said, it seem that you all have left me no choice. Cody is a valid suspect and if I vote snoopdogg, we risk lynching two villagers and losing tonight.

So VOTE COMM. CODY

[snoopdogg]

Will almost cetainly have no time to make a switch during the deadline, and don't want to tie today.
Unvote Cody. Vote Falc.
If Cody turns out to be the last waffle and we catch him tomorrow, I'll owe you one in the future.

[randakar]

Back.

@Snoopdogg - thank you. I must say I kind of agree with you regarding Rendap. Looking back, it might very well have been a play to get his goodie cred on the street, so to speak.
But right now we have a better suspect.
And if that "I didn't know we hunted Kingpyon" spiel was faked, it was very well done.

@Falc - I'm sorry, but you really are the best suspect here. My vote stays.

@Rendap - Really, really well done if you're a wolf. Seriously.

If the last wolf isn't lynched tonight, I suggest you hunt me. Tomorrow will be a terrible busy day for me, so I won't be able to do more than token analysis anyway.. ;-)

edit: edited to figure out where editing timestamps go