Manufacturing Italy: A PoN GC (... sort of)

Director said:

Too often war is like a trip to the dentist - necessary, much-dreaded and yet something we are eager to have done and over with. My game style is not that of the warmaker, but Austria clearly stands between you and real power, so Austria must go down. Depending on how the game mechanics work, standing on the defensive in a powerful prepared position could be advantageous - if the AI is dumb enough to attack it. What I remember from that war is that the Austrians tried to rely on firepower and the French had gone back over to an emphasis on assault columns and the bayonet, leading to some appalling casualties. Post-War, of course, the French went back to a firepower doctrine and the Austrians took up dense assault columns a la bayonet... which lead to disaster in the Austro-Prussian War (*sigh* Perhaps tactically you should simply pick whatever the Austrians are NOT using). My personal preference has always been the style of Belisarius (and von Manstein, aong others) - a stout defense coupled with a counter-attack and a ruthless pursuit if they break. Of course, you need to work the game mechanics rather than some idealized srategy/operations plan.

Looks like you could profit from some more independent units, to raid around behind the Austrians in Venezia and Dalmatia. Probably a suicide mission, but if you deplete the main stack in Northern Italy, or get it to alter its stance so that you can wrong-foot it... and then hit it... (*visions of Austrian troops streaming in panic down the Po Valley, courtesy of the original Napoleon*). :happy:

I agree with trying to make-nice with Prussia, at least as long as that doesn't detract from your diplomacy with France. First things first, and all that. You might get lucky (too many friends are rarely enough, especially when it comes to war). And if not, well - not much lost from the attempt, yes?

I don't know how this game's peace treaty mechanics work, but I would suspect that you'll need to whip Austria hard to get their Italian provinces. I wish you the best and hope you get a decent setup, assuming war actually comes.

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I must admit I'm dreading the war when it comes. I think this game forces you to a very Bismarckian attitude, its not that you care about killing off the lower orders in large numbers but you know that if too many die it will hinder your statecraft for quite a while. I'm struggling to build up a manpower reserve even in peacetime, I hate to think how hard its going to be to recover (even if I can draw on a larger population). This is exactly the dilemna that wasn't posed at the end of the Rise of Prussia game, where my army was utterly expendable as long as I secured my goals.

The marines (aka men-in-hats) are my raiding force. I think I will have total naval superiority so can pick my targets. I do have a single cavalry brigade I can detach but at the moment neither Parma nor the Papal States will give me access so its going to be a grinding campaign down the Po valley with very little finesse. But there is no doubt, if I can I want to force the Austrians to attack me, artillery in particular is better on the defense and I'm relying a lot on artillery for my killing power.

For diplomacy, its France first, second and third, but as long as they and Prussia are not in contention, I also build relations with Prussia. My guess is that Prussia has to settle the leadership of Germany with Austria first then it come to blows with France. So if there is a need for more expansion, I'm not adverse to an 1866 style blow at Austria when they are caught up in a war elsewhere.

In terms of gains, the engine uses an extreme version of Paradox's core mechanism. If it is on your objective list (ie Milan, Venice, Trieste and Split) it is relatively easy to acquire anything else is effectively impossible (I'm not sure if its just hard or actually not doable?). So a good win should net me the first two, I guess the Adriatic ports may have to wait.

Powloon said:

The other possibilie way to deal with Austria might be to draw the main Austrian army into alessandria hoping it will take time to reduce the place while one of your stacks advances from Parma or the papel states to cut the railway at venezia and hopefully put his main force out of supply. It might give you the chance to eliminate a substantial force without devastating casualties.

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I am back to dithering about building up the fortifications at Alessandria just for that purpose. Lure them in, sit back and see if I can chop their supply line is becoming a very attractive variant. Problem is, if I do get French support, a big modern fort in the middle of Italy is pretty near useless in the longer term. So its quite a decision to have to make.

Joecon said:

On exploitation centres, they appear to replace cities as a place to gather resources, I think you are mostly better off with using harbours, much cheaper.
The investment in a center costs 92 money, 230 capital, 24 x10 for mfg = 562 (assuming money=capital). The return is 1 money per turn, so really has to earn itself back by allowing you to get resources you otherwise would not be able to get.
Unlike merchants where allowing for the possibility of failure the IRR is 81%, the average net return is 22 assuming mfg @ 10.
Good trading posts sending back valuable stuff like silk, opium, gold, gems etc. have an IRR in excess of 50%.
Most agriculture IRR is between 25% and 45%, opium and silk usually are over 60%.
For mines IRR is between 15% and 45% except for gold and gems which are through the roof. Coal is usually low.
Factories IRR is bwteen 50% and 75%.
This all assumes 100% efficiency and that you are buying at the base price for investment, return drops as the investment cost goes up.
A 20% increase in the cost of investment will drop a 45% IRR to 37%.
A 50% effeciency will drop a 45% IRR to 21%.
So the overall approach with a big economy is to invest in stuff, preferrably in more developed areas and hope this leads to good returns.
The way this works is if you are investing 500 a turn, then in a year you will have invested 12,000. A year later allowing for the long build times for factories you should be generating 12,000 x 20% = 2,400 extra capital a year, 100 a month. Because this is compound and assuming you have enough structures to invest in by year 10 you will have 2,500 capital a month.
Sorry, went on a bit.....

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Thanks for that, is one reason I'm doing this AAR. Its an attempt to create a form of game-orientated manual. In this case I think it does help me in trading from Sardinia but I won't know till after the next update (as the rail only completed in late June) and that then means it is as well developed as the rest of my holdings.

January-June 1857, insulting the Austrians and other developments

Economically, this half year was much as usual. Open some borderline stuff when it seemed as if I could sell more (you can use the 'B' screen to check what is in demand). My other struggle was having to save up all my potential replacements to use as regular infantry (I think I've had an unlucky period with my replacements being quickly consumed).

Diplomatically though, its been pretty active with some odd revolts, a clash between Austria and Russia and the start of the Unification event chain.

Anyway, usual summary reports:

Manufactured Goods (& larger decisions)



As you can see, I built nothing in that period. In part there are no obviously profitable factories (and the price of luxury goods is dropping), so I'm content to store cash to spend on reforms and capital in case I need to institute a form of autarky in the case of war.

Non-Manufactured



My basic goal here is to stabilise things, no particular interest in building up my stockpiles, am selling as much domestically as I can, so just twiddling on the margins with sales/purchases.

Replacements



My big problem in this period was needing to put most of my conscript companies to building line infantry replacements. These are very expensive in manpower terms (which is now my main constraint). Should add, the image doesn't mean I need 41 replacement chits but that I have 41 elements that are in need of some replacements (a given chit will supply a random number of these).

Diplomacy



Few things to note there. Prussia and Parma are now on my 'mates' list, but neither will agree to anything (so its all done by the 'local support' option). The Pope won't give me military access.

I've shown France's relations with the main powers. They don't like Austria which suits me fine.

Population



I'll spare you the colonial reports, I think you can probably guess what happened.

Anyway it is in international matters that things happen.

Some very wierd



And a new Austrian cavalry unit arrives in Milan



Note at this stage Milan (& Venice) is still rather loyal to the Austrians.



In revenge, I decide to insult the Austrians (actually I need to lower our relationships)



(now of course this does feel like enacting a Monty Python scene)

Now a bit later, the first stage of the Unification fires. Hasn't shown too well, but the loyalty ratios in Venezia and Lombardy are 32% Italian (no change), 58% pro-Austrian (down 10%) and 10% rebel, so they have a large problem with annoyed locals to deal with.



And then Russia and Austria clash



So rather opportunistically I offer 'local support' to Russia. However it comes to nothing.

I also decide now my cash flow is a lot better to return to investing in extra research effort into discovering steel rails.



This message came up so it seems a good time to discuss how the research system works. As already discussed you have little control over focus (unlike Victoria) except in terms of strategically (& expensively) investing in a few lines.

hgilmer said:

One of those rifle advances increases your power by a lot. But, you have to buy a lot of replacements to refill once they "train up". Obviously, you won't have as much as I did, but I had shortages of 1000 in line troops. I just bought a little every turn. It made me almost the strongest overnight, except for Russia. I'm still easily in the top 2 at most times for army power/combat power of my armies.

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I was rather afraid of that. It makes sense that for a power with a too large army (ie S-P) for its country size then keeping that army up to date is a real challenge. My only hope is that by the time that fires I'll be able to draw on most of Italy for manpower.

Stuyvesant said:

Where are these 'Cumberland Mountains' that you speak of? I supposed they're somewhere in North America, if they joined the United States, but since you describe it as 'weird', I thought I'd better ask.

For a game that has so many turns to go through, it is disquieting to realize that 1859 really isn't that far away anymore - your forces still seem rather lacking compared to that Austrian army sat in Venezia.

How expensive is it to upgrade that fort in Alessandria? I understand that, in the long run, it won't be doing anything but sitting there and looking pretty, but given the imbalance of forces, a fortress-and-cannon based defense might be your best bet when it comes to dealing with the Emperor's legions - I'm a known pessismist, but I fail to see how else you're going to dislodge the Austrians from Italy. At worst, that Austrian army might simply wreck you and that'll be the end of your dreams of unification (I assume).

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1859 seems to loom very close. Its in part as I'm struggling to expand my support units as my infantry are consuming all my replacements (i've been unlucky in the speed at which the chits are consumed). In the next update I do upgrade the fort - it is indeed rather cheap.

I think what this game captures is a feeling I've invested a mass of time and effort in getting here and yet it is very unclear whether that ambition will survive a few short weeks of combat. I think, if the force in Venice is all they can spare, I can avoid defeat - I have better organisation (being a regular army) and the artillery will give me a lot of killing power on the defense. But I presume they have others that in time they will be willing to send into Italy.

As to the Cumberland things - I guess its the one in the US? But there is this strange sequence of messages where "X rebels have joined Y", and you usually wonder why they bothered with the rebel thing in the first place.

July - December 1857, Libya revolts ...

So, the tensions are steadily mounting (at least for me) especially as I cannot seem to solve the shortage of infantry replacements. In turn that is stopping me building up additional artillery or specialist formations.

I also give in and decide to improve the fortifications at Alessandria. I'm just not convinced I will have French support and that just might give me the means to wear down the Austrians (I'm not convinced as I can see little chance of generating a war of manouver).

Anyway, usual updates, and some odd events in Libya.

Manufactured Items (& other economic events)



Non-Manufactured Items



(not much to say here, shifting trade and what is open in an attempt to stop any more stockpiling)

Replacements



Population



My goal here is to keep average militancy below 5 so that even places like Piedmont are under control. I guess this reflects working class militancy and poor living conditions and may also be related to the factories I have shut.

It'll be interesting to see how the game models the post-1859 revolts in Southern Italy when the peasants discovered that the new state was administered by the old landlords and tax collectors. For those interested the classic book/film Il Gattopardo by di Lampedusa covers this brilliantly [1].

Diplomacy



Prestige (just to give you some idea at my lack of progress in this respect)



Events and so on.

Well I gain a couple of new commanders



Neither are exactly geniuses and I'm ok for Command Points but I'm not going to complain

As mentioned in the Manufactured goods report I built another Ammunition plant as it is something I can sell. You can check this using the B screen and then hover over the various cells. This will tell you how much is up for sale and how much is being bought. In this case I'm the only person in Europe flogging the stuff and people really want to buy it from me. Now I know the international arms trade is pure evil, but this is a means to use up my raw materials and earn some cash.



Supply is similar as are luxury goods



Mexico and the USA kiss and make up



And in Libya it looks like a massive revolt has taken control.



I knew it was going badly as my missionaries kept on being burnt down. Well if it becomes independent then I am sure it will need Italian guidance.

So a very quiet period, but never fear the next update will feature:

1. Earthquakes
2. A major diplomatic crisis with one of the major powers (& I have no allies)
3. Whatever happens in May & June (as I've only played to early May)

[1] - "Se vogliamo che tutto rimanga com'è bisogna che tutto cambi". Spoken by the Prince when Garibaldi's Red Shirts capture the town where his Palace is located, easiest translation is: 'if we want things to stay as they are it is neccessary that everything must change'

Couple of edits - first, it is indeed a long lost Russian force in Misrata, seems to have taken control when the rebels kicked out the Ottomans. Second, wine is also sellable on the world market in addition to the goods I identified.

Stuyvesant said:

Very informative, you answered all my questions. Thanks!

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aye, I double checked and that seems to be the answer. As far as I can judge a Russian force was stuck there at the end of the war and took control when the Ottomans lost it to the rebels. Given the Ottomans are falling apart (at least in North and East Africa), I'm not sure they are going to regain Libya anytime soon.

Powloon said:

I'm with you on the feeling nervous front! A lot of game playing hours could go down the swanny if the Austrians attack get some lucky rolls and take out the army. It is definately worth getting passage rights from Parma or the Papal States (although the little buggers are still refusing me) or as you said the chance for any fancy manouver warfare is nil

A couple of things I noticed

You seem to have your shipyard turned off (no points in your prestige screenshot). I know it is not profitable but it does give you 2 prestige a turn which does add up over the long haul it could well make the difference between finishing 4th and 5th (I could be wrong but I don't expect to get into the top 3 with the big boys).

The new buisnessman events in 1.03 only seem to fire when you have a minimum amount of private capital. I am finding the cut off point to be 1800. Whilst you don't always get a great deal I think over time it averages out. Since I have kept my capital over 1800 my cup has runneth over with gems and other luxuries I was finding it hard to get my hands on meaning I can finally satisfy the demand of my population for luxuries.

It is definately worth sending merchants and eventually trading posts to arabian peninsular as this will also give you a periodic income of gems,opium and coffee all guarenteed to bring smiles to the faces of the great unwashed.

I am definatley not as hardcore as you as i turned off the attrition setting mid-game it was a tad disheartning for my first game to see all my hard won replacements dissapear straight away. Might be an option to try as it does seem S-P definately has enough problems to deal with.

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I think if I do carry on post-unification, I'll enable the extended claims option so as to have a lot more freedom of action but I like the attrition one, it keeps army sizes relatively small (which fits the era) and hopefully the additional manpower from the whole of Italy will ease the problems.

The shipyard was shut in one of my periodic cash crises, I don't always remember to reopen it but I agree its a small but valuable prestige gain.

Also I can't get access from either Parma or the Pope, so have the same military dilemna, but I will use the fleet to create a diversion if I can

Stuyvesant said:

Taiping rebellion must be in full swing, given the losses China is suffering...

The current stage is very reminiscent of earlier Paradox games, when they had events tied to date triggers: you know the Big Show is about to happen, so you really have to race to be ready for it. It almost makes you wish for the greater flexibility of, say, Victoria II or HOI 3, but I guess it also has its charms to know you have a deadline you need to make, if your game is to continue past this painstaking investment-and-preparation stage.

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Yes the Taiping war and that between Persia and Afghanistan are the only ongoing wars at the moment.

I know what you mean about having the feel of EU2. I guess the difference is that the big event we are all expecting makes sense, I remember some of the late game, really dramatic shifts in EU2 occured utterly out of context, but you would still be playing in anticipation of them.

In general when I play Victoria (I'm having a fun game with Persia at the moment) I appreciate the extent that PoN constrains the player, when I play PoN I rather miss Victoria's ability to allow you to forge your own version of the nineteenth century. I think, to my mind, thats why I like them both and appreciate the different design decisions etc. I do wish that in Victoria, the nature of your state was a bigger constraint and in PoN, there is this urge to do *something*.

BwenGun said:

Just wanted to say that this is an excellent and incredibly informative AAR and has got me very, very, interested in getting PoN. Consider me subscribed.

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Glad you are enjoying it. Its a very addictive game, with its own internal rythym that keeps you playing. As I've mentioned elsewhere, you can also offset some of the turn processing issue by effectively playing it in the background while you do something else.

January-June 1858, earthquakes and other crises

Well as hinted, things happened in this period, just not the things I've been planning for. So coming up will be a combination of earthquakes, angry Russians, a collapsing Ottoman Empire and the usual stuff.

Speaking of which, here's the Manufactured Goods report (& major builds etc):



As you can see scattered in there are a number of non-planned purchases. These happen when your private capital is over 1400 and are a great way to access luxuries in particular.

Non-Manufactured.



Now the good thing is that with all these random luxuries that turn up is I can supply luxuries to my population.



Replacements and stuff (which I am slowly getting a reserve built up)



Happiness



Diplomacy



I'll spare you the colonial screens. I think you can guess that my progress is nil.

And, as promised, the big events:

The North Americans have a thing about gold



Naples has an earthquake



And, tensions with Russia



Now this is exciting, my first crisis. If I win I can gain prestige, if lose I can lose prestige or possibly stumble into a war ... and not really the war I want either.

Now what you do is to select card(s) that represent your opening commitment and then tell the AI how aggressively you want to play the subsequent portion. So its a typical AGEOD mechanism in that you set it up and then it is resolved for you. On the right hand side is a series of options for how to play it out, ranging from very cautious (you will more than likely lose but equally there is no risk of war) to very aggressive (so you may well win but you may also find yourself at war).

Below that the various cards from left to right are an escalating set of opening responses. The options are:



Now I decided to be fairly aggressive. My logic is that Russia doesn't gain from a war with me, so I can puff myself up and appear a powerful state (one of my cats being very good at this variant in feline diplomacy). So I pick two opening cards



and leave the AI response at a mid-point

All this is then resolved in the turn resolution phase and you get the outcome. Looks like no war and I did ok in terms of prestige.



This shows the complete sequence of cards and responses played in each round. It ended, rather impressively with a press conference. I imagine Malcolm Tucker explaining to the assembled media that they had failed to grasp the true nature of the situation, but in language more colourful than can be written here.

Anyway the boost to my prestige is welcome.

Now I was doing a bit of low grade colonial stuff, merchants, missionaries etc and noticed the Ottomans have lost control of a vast region which added to their problems in North Africa indicates a potential target. Once the small matter of Austria is disposed of.

Sir Garnet said:

Fairest setting for attrition is historical for player only so you play correctly but the AI with clumsier logistical competence in micro-ing troops for logistical reasons need not.

Rebel regions may from time to time give up and rejoin the nation. Many rebels don't have any other state they could form or join.

A key measure of the size of the country's economy is private capital expended in production (that left-hand minus on line 2 of the F4 Commerce report). Another key number is the size of the domestic market's 3 segments. These numbers change relatively slowly absent large shutdowns so are worth reporting at intervals. Total volume of exports and imports is interesting, but a worse measure of the economy especially if there are re-exports. Some players take an autarkic or mercantilist approach. I have been taking a pro-active marketmaking approach as described in the manual. Multiplayer is not representative of the SP game's level of demand, but in terms of capacity to trade 1866 Brazilin MP has f800-1000 value of exports per turn and imports a few hundred less. Much of that is for re-export, limited by the fact a minor cannot sell through its ships, while majors can do so and have enormously more potential because of this. Trade develops your trading partners and commercial agreements improve relations. Almost everything is in demand somewhere around the world - just need fleets in most key markets and goods on offer and some orders should come in, especially if they got money from your purchases.

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I'm trying for a trade model, even importing things like wines from S America and passing it off as good quality Barolo for the unsuspecting N European market ... . it does seem odd as the natural tendency is to want to control your own manufacturing chain but I recall when PoN first came out there was a lot of advice that the player should try to lubricate the world market. I'm going to try to build some more fleets and send them off to the Far East to see if that can trigger some more trade opportunities.

My domestic market numbers are 18/16/11 and have been stuck for a while. It looks like I'm a year/18 months off two inventions firing that will boost demand - that will be welcome as I have a fair few closed facilities.

I'll try to start reporting the capital number. I can see what you mean, its a good proxy for activity as its the standard input. Its just at the moment, my economy is basicially stable. I sometimes open up something to rebuild the stockpile, but that is all that is changing.

hgilmer said:

In an earlier post on this thread or another, I spoke about those "rebel controlled" regions. They seem to be a headache. I restarted my whole game after the 1.03 patch and so the regions I had taken before, I no longer had. But, new ones have rebelled against Russia. So, I took over one and I have MC 100%. It won't let me build there, though. I have control of the factories, so it is somewhat worth it, I guess. The Russians moved a force into the region and are just sitting there "neutral". I imagine if I moved my troops out, they'd retake it.

Might be something to think about when you see rebel controlled areas.

And of course, rebels (I think, usually) are flagged as "at war" with your country, so you can attack them.

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Guess its a bit like imposing martial law and taking advantage of being in charge in the short term. You can't develop the region but you can .. ahem *assist* it in its time of need?

I do think they need some mechanisms to clean up this problem. Even if it is as crude as a teleport to the nearest owned territory say 10 turns after a war ends?

You can also use the 'relations' overlay, to get a good overview of the rebel problem - stands out better than the little flags indicate.

I am going to go for the Ottomans once I've done the business with Austria. Its falling apart, so there is a chance to grab some useful holdings. I think post-unification I'll swap to 'extended claims' so I can act a bit more freely.

July-December 1858: Waiting for Godot (or more accurately, Piombieres)

Well the main business in this period was waiting for the Piombieres decision to fire. From the file it can happen any time from July 1858 to July 1860 but with a high probability of happening early in that period.

Now, given that I have played into 1859, I've realised that somehow I missed it. Or I assume so, as the third event in the unification decision chain (the mobilisation order and a further increase in militancy in the Veneto and Lombardy) happened in early 1859. The reason may be that I signed a defensive treaty with France over the Russian crisis, but my reading of the file is that should have no effect on the Piombieres decision?

Anyway, I spent the time trading, some low key building (not a lot as I'm storing capital for a post unification building boom) and whacking some annoying French rebels. I'm prepared to cede Nice and Savoy, but they have to ask nicely first, and come and kill some Austrians.

So the usual stuff:

Manufactured goods (& big events)



Non-Manufactured.



The grumpy sods of Piedmont report:


(the quicker I have Juventus cheating their way to the SerieA title, the quicker they will cheer up?)

Replacements



Diplomacy



and the actual events.

Well lets start with an OOB review. With my defensive treaty in place I get to see the deployment of the French army.




Now I want to ensure that Austria doesn't like me. So what better than to degrade relationships.

If I'm lucky I may gain a diplomatic crisis that I can escalate. Well they don't like me



(more green the more friendly)

You can use this mapmode to spot revolts as technically I am at war with any rebel, anywhere. Well the Ottomans are not having much fun.



Well just to punish me for rubber necking at other people's misfortune, I then got my very own domestic rebellion. Here am I preparing for the war to secure Italy's destiny and I have a rebellion. Even worse, it seems they were related to some wider French stushie.


(not sure why, and I have run the 'clean up loyalty' script)

Well its amazing how fast they go away when you send in the cavalry (and the men-in-hats).

Anyway after that, it appears that the Russians still have a thing with Austria. Somehow the idea of that pair going to war rather cheers me up



Pity.

No sign of Austria actually planning to declare war. Indeed it looks like that army that was around Venice has gone away (Russian border?).