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Thread: Werewolf CXXVI - Werewolf Wagon Train

  1. #961
    Quote Originally Posted by reis91 View Post
    Why not? You make rivals, and then you are surprised they actually try everything to kill their rivals? Or are you saying that the hunter should not have done the favor, which would still leave many other ways to get rid of your rival early, like outing them to a wolfpack.
    Yes, I'm saying the hunter shouldn't have done the favour. Johho only did it because he thought Nautilu could win with any team, and I gather Nautilu only sent the PMs because he also misunderstood the rule. If they'd known the actual rule, they would have bided their time and looked for an opportunity less likely to blow up on them.

    Rival seer and apprentice is an obvious setup. Seer scans the rival night 0, and they both know where they stand. Instead the apprentice misread the rule and went crazy.

    As for selling out your rival to a wolf pack, that's just stupid. Your team comes first, it's irrelevant if your rival is still alive if the other side wins. Patience is a far better approach. In fact... I've been an unclaimed apprentice and rival to the seer, and that's exactly what I did. Voted him when he was run up, but otherwise just let things get on with it. The odds are very high one or both of you will die anyway. Me in that case, with the seer going on to lead the village to victory.

    If you want a picture of the future, imagine an episode of Mr. Bean—forever.

  2. #962
    Field Marshal reis91's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capt. Kiwi View Post
    Yes, I'm saying the hunter shouldn't have done the favour. Johho only did it because he thought Nautilu could win with any team, and I gather Nautilu only sent the PMs because he also misunderstood the rule. If they'd known the actual rule, they would have bided their time and looked for an opportunity less likely to blow up on them.

    Rival seer and apprentice is an obvious setup. Seer scans the rival night 0, and they both know where they stand. Instead the apprentice misread the rule and went crazy.

    As for selling out your rival to a wolf pack, that's just stupid. Your team comes first, it's irrelevant if your rival is still alive if the other side wins. Patience is a far better approach. In fact... I've been an unclaimed apprentice and rival to the seer, and that's exactly what I did. Voted him when he was run up, but otherwise just let things get on with it. The odds are very high one or both of you will die anyway. Me in that case, with the seer going on to lead the village to victory.
    They both know where they stand, and they are both going to try to kill the other before the other guy does the same. It could happen, for instance, that both players go out each other, and then you lose both seers. Not very refined gameplay, and not good for balance either.

    It's not very stupid, it's a case of prisoner's dilemma. If you have absolute trust in each other, then it can work, but if you do not, and play to win... you will want to preempt the other guy. And in WW, you're justified in doing everything possible to win the game. Killing a Seer, especially when there are two possible seers, doesn't make you lose the game.
    Come and hunt your fellow Paradoxians in the Werewolf Forum

    What this means is that no one technically voted on the first day and we have all been auto-lynched. Since none of us were following ghost rules from that point forward, we are all banned from werewolf for life. - Cymsdale

  3. #963
    OT's own Sgt. Schultz telesien's Avatar
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    Would people be by chance interested in another lite game or would a small break be a better idea? I really don't know how it works here, if it is a continuous stream of games that people sometimes join and sometimes don't or if you get waves of activity followed by periods of inactivity...
    "'Religious faith. Belief in daemons, belief in spirits, belief in an afterlife and all the other trappings of a preternatural existence, simply existed to make us all more comfortable and content in the face of a measureless cosmos. They were sops, bolsters for the soul, crutches for the intellect, prayers and lucky charms to help us through the darkness. But we have witnessed the cosmos now, my friends. We have passed amongst it. We have learned and understood the fabric of reality. We have seen the stars from behind, and found they have no clockwork mechanisms, no golden chariots carrying them abroad. We have realized there is no need for god, or any gods, and by extension no use any longer for daemons or devils or spirits."


    - Primary Iterator Kyril Sindermann

  4. #964
    Lost... the_hdk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by telesien View Post
    Would people be by chance interested in another lite game or would a small break be a better idea? I really don't know how it works here, if it is a continuous stream of games that people sometimes join and sometimes don't or if you get waves of activity followed by periods of inactivity...
    In QI this would be the moment for the 'Nobody Knows' card

    It's hard to say. but as both games ended I assume the one that starts first gets players faster

  5. #965
    Quote Originally Posted by reis91 View Post
    They both know where they stand, and they are both going to try to kill the other before the other guy does the same. It could happen, for instance, that both players go out each other, and then you lose both seers. Not very refined gameplay, and not good for balance either.

    It's not very stupid, it's a case of prisoner's dilemma. If you have absolute trust in each other, then it can work, but if you do not, and play to win... you will want to preempt the other guy.
    It's not the prisoner's dilemma. In the prisoner's dilemma you get a reduced punishment for selling the other guy out. Here selling the other guy out increases your risk of getting the worst punishment (losing), because you still lose if the wolves win - the seer is a key part of reducing the odds of that, and having a backup really helps. Not to mention that with fatality rates usually upward of 75%, with juicy seers a wolf delicacy, you don't need to worry too much about going out of your way to kill your seer rival. And just how are you planning on selling him out anyway? Contacting the wolves and saying "hey guys, I'm the seer's apprentice, we can totally work together!"?

    You'd have to be insane to sell out the seer if you were his rival and apprentice. Of course, this is Werewolf...

    If you want a picture of the future, imagine an episode of Mr. Bean—forever.

  6. #966
    Quote Originally Posted by telesien View Post
    Would people be by chance interested in another lite game or would a small break be a better idea? I really don't know how it works here, if it is a continuous stream of games that people sometimes join and sometimes don't or if you get waves of activity followed by periods of inactivity...
    Normally the next one would start signups as soon as the last one finished. However, things went on a bit of a hiatus recently. A large group of players have stopped playing, so it's hard to get full signups.

    If you want a picture of the future, imagine an episode of Mr. Bean—forever.

  7. #967
    OT's own Sgt. Schultz telesien's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capt. Kiwi View Post
    Normally the next one would start signups as soon as the last one finished. However, things went on a bit of a hiatus recently. A large group of players have stopped playing, so it's hard to get full signups.
    Well nobody posted anything yet and I can easily send PMs to people involved in the last few games and see what happens

    @HDK: What is QI?
    "'Religious faith. Belief in daemons, belief in spirits, belief in an afterlife and all the other trappings of a preternatural existence, simply existed to make us all more comfortable and content in the face of a measureless cosmos. They were sops, bolsters for the soul, crutches for the intellect, prayers and lucky charms to help us through the darkness. But we have witnessed the cosmos now, my friends. We have passed amongst it. We have learned and understood the fabric of reality. We have seen the stars from behind, and found they have no clockwork mechanisms, no golden chariots carrying them abroad. We have realized there is no need for god, or any gods, and by extension no use any longer for daemons or devils or spirits."


    - Primary Iterator Kyril Sindermann

  8. #968
    Quote Originally Posted by telesien View Post
    Well nobody posted anything yet and I can easily send PMs to people involved in the last few games and see what happens

    @HDK: What is QI?
    Stephen Fry hosting a game show of sorts.


    If you want a picture of the future, imagine an episode of Mr. Bean—forever.

  9. #969
    OT's own Sgt. Schultz telesien's Avatar
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    Werewolf Lite CCXXXIII




    Disciples of Slaanesh



    Location:
    The town of Hoffnungslosigkeit deep in Drakwald Forest, Heart of the Empire

    Date:
    Wellentag, Vorgeheim 1st, 2132

    From the town chronicle written by venerable Lothar Telemann:
    In the year of Empire 2132, our beloved count Siegfried 'Stark' von Steinburg left with the town garrison to help the Emperor Martin defeat the threat comming from Sylvania, where yet another vapire lord of the von Carstein clan - this time Manfred - raised the banner of his undead army and marched on Altdorf. Unfortunately the troubles of Empire left our once great but now dying town severly unprotected during the worst time possible. Beastmen are once more gathering under a new powerful shaman and there are rumors, that there is even a cult devoted to Chaos in our midst.
    http://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/...es-of-Slaanesh
    Last edited by telesien; 20-05-2012 at 17:39.
    "'Religious faith. Belief in daemons, belief in spirits, belief in an afterlife and all the other trappings of a preternatural existence, simply existed to make us all more comfortable and content in the face of a measureless cosmos. They were sops, bolsters for the soul, crutches for the intellect, prayers and lucky charms to help us through the darkness. But we have witnessed the cosmos now, my friends. We have passed amongst it. We have learned and understood the fabric of reality. We have seen the stars from behind, and found they have no clockwork mechanisms, no golden chariots carrying them abroad. We have realized there is no need for god, or any gods, and by extension no use any longer for daemons or devils or spirits."


    - Primary Iterator Kyril Sindermann

  10. #970
    Field Marshal reis91's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capt. Kiwi View Post
    It's not the prisoner's dilemma. In the prisoner's dilemma you get a reduced punishment for selling the other guy out. Here selling the other guy out increases your risk of getting the worst punishment (losing), because you still lose if the wolves win - the seer is a key part of reducing the odds of that, and having a backup really helps. Not to mention that with fatality rates usually upward of 75%, with juicy seers a wolf delicacy, you don't need to worry too much about going out of your way to kill your seer rival. And just how are you planning on selling him out anyway? Contacting the wolves and saying "hey guys, I'm the seer's apprentice, we can totally work together!"?

    You'd have to be insane to sell out the seer if you were his rival and apprentice. Of course, this is Werewolf...
    Make a matrix, and assume that both players want to do everything to win.

    A sells B and B sells A : A -, B -
    A doesn't sell B and B sells A : A -, B ++
    A sells B and B doesn't sell A : A ++, B -
    A doesn't sell B and B doesn't sell A : A +, B +

    The rationale for the +, ++ and the - is that losing the game is always the same, regardless of how it was done, while + doesn't solve your problem, merely means you survived, and ++ has your rival victory condition addressed. A sells B and B sells A are the superior options, but if both agents pick the superior options, the outcome is inferior to if they both picked the inferior option. Google Nash Equilibrium.

    As for how it would be done... well, I can think of some ways... rival A goes over to the baddies and says "Hey, I'm a cultist who got scanned by the Seer and infiltrated the JL, hunt B, he's the Seer.", which even opens up possibilities whose potential far exceeds the one of your rival, like figuring out the baddies and getting them to do your bidding.

    Not to mention variants where apprentices can be stolen/turned etc, which means that the sooner you kill your apprentice, the better...
    Come and hunt your fellow Paradoxians in the Werewolf Forum

    What this means is that no one technically voted on the first day and we have all been auto-lynched. Since none of us were following ghost rules from that point forward, we are all banned from werewolf for life. - Cymsdale

  11. #971
    Field Marshal reis91's Avatar
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    Put a link in the advertisement for the lazy amongst us...
    Come and hunt your fellow Paradoxians in the Werewolf Forum

    What this means is that no one technically voted on the first day and we have all been auto-lynched. Since none of us were following ghost rules from that point forward, we are all banned from werewolf for life. - Cymsdale

  12. #972
    (Retired) pixie hunter Steed's Avatar
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    We actually WON!! What a great game Rendap, really enjoyed the challenge.. The no cultists in the game just made the mind work is there/isnt there..
    I was rather paranoid about Johho being a cultist somehow, but then again id always talk myself out of it again and go back to trusting him. As the lynches went by i got less paranoid.. So glad i shouted out to stop the Johho bandwagon that was forming, nice work Johho.
    I was shocked to see Falc as a GA, i just put a random vote on him and he ended up lynched.. haha, i didnt private PM anybody, not my style just pure luck. But when i saw the GA trait, i waqs waiting to be killed, but it never came. Thats why i clicked and deep down knew that Nautilu was good, I thought maybe 2nd Seer or an apprentice due to Split would scan him straight away. I was pretty much right. So i told Johho we need to keep him alive as i thought a Hunter is 80% goodie most the time.
    I didnt save anybody with my Protecting,, just looked after Nautilu and Johho at first and then went on to random villagers..
    I was going to Protect Deaghaidh the night he got hunted, but changed it to him as Back-up. I was thinking to try and save the last Yellow Wolf, because that was the only thing keeping us from plarity and me being eaten. (Thats if there were cultists anyway)
    Im sure the only reason Nautilu, Johho and Me were still alive, was the packs trying to find each other and im thankfull for that. Enjoyed the hard work victory and even more, my analysis was good for a change
    Olaus's death always brings me happiness. 21

    - However....it seems the only guy more popular for scanning now than me is Steed - Jinnai
    - Let me also say that Steed is one paranoid bastard..., well, I can't really blame Steed - Zoston

  13. #973
    Most Valuable Dogg snoopdogg's Avatar
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    I agree with the Kiwi.
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  14. #974
    OT's own Sgt. Schultz telesien's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by reis91 View Post
    Put a link in the advertisement for the lazy amongst us...
    Good idea
    "'Religious faith. Belief in daemons, belief in spirits, belief in an afterlife and all the other trappings of a preternatural existence, simply existed to make us all more comfortable and content in the face of a measureless cosmos. They were sops, bolsters for the soul, crutches for the intellect, prayers and lucky charms to help us through the darkness. But we have witnessed the cosmos now, my friends. We have passed amongst it. We have learned and understood the fabric of reality. We have seen the stars from behind, and found they have no clockwork mechanisms, no golden chariots carrying them abroad. We have realized there is no need for god, or any gods, and by extension no use any longer for daemons or devils or spirits."


    - Primary Iterator Kyril Sindermann

  15. #975
    One Arsene Wenger! Cakravarti's Avatar
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    I had no idea that Nautilu was an apprentice. I assumed he was an ordinary villager or possibly a wolf.

    I had him as a backup scan on day one prefering a random scan of paendrag I think as my primary choice. I am not good with setups, likely roles, etc. I couldnt go after Nautilu right of the bat because I was the seer and didnt want to attract unwanted attention. I did have an evil plan to sell him to the other side as the seer :evil:

    But thanks to the little twunts lobbying I never got to put it into action......

    ...atleast I was victorious in Lite!!!...

    And I got to kill Nautilu en route to victory making it all the sweeter!...
    "As a boy growing up in Hungary, there was only one club for me - Arsenal"- The Legendary Ferenc Puskas on a youth spent looking up to the greatest football team of the era... Herbert Chapman's Arsenal Football Club

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  16. #976
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capt. Kiwi View Post
    Yes, I'm saying the hunter shouldn't have done the favour. Johho only did it because he thought Nautilu could win with any team, and I gather Nautilu only sent the PMs because he also misunderstood the rule. If they'd known the actual rule, they would have bided their time and looked for an opportunity less likely to blow up on them.
    Well, even if the rules were as I thought they were I shouldn't have panicked and shot one rival. I was overthinking things and thought that if Nautilu found a baddie, they ate his rival then not only would he be a dangerous infiltrator but also I'd be dead meat. This was just stupid reasoning by me. No way Nautilu only PMed only one baddie and me. No way the baddies would manage to kill both me (and every other goodie Nautilu PMed) and the rival at the same time. I'm surprised noone called me out on that one. I was overthinking things in combination with being late to a movie (about spacenazis) when I sent in that fatal hunt order. Sorry, Cakravati. But at least the whole game got more exciting because of it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Capt. Kiwi View Post
    As for selling out your rival to a wolf pack, that's just stupid. Your team comes first, it's irrelevant if your rival is still alive if the other side wins. Patience is a far better approach. In fact... I've been an unclaimed apprentice and rival to the seer, and that's exactly what I did. Voted him when he was run up, but otherwise just let things get on with it. The odds are very high one or both of you will die anyway. Me in that case, with the seer going on to lead the village to victory.
    Absolutely agree on this one and that is how I handled rivals last time I was one. I suggested a non-aggression pact, saying odds are one of us will get killed anyway before the endgame. Unfortunately my rival was a cultist and his master ate me night 1...

  17. #977
    Quote Originally Posted by reis91 View Post
    Make a matrix, and assume that both players want to do everything to win.

    A sells B and B sells A : A -, B -
    A doesn't sell B and B sells A : A -, B ++
    A sells B and B doesn't sell A : A ++, B -
    A doesn't sell B and B doesn't sell A : A +, B +

    The rationale for the +, ++ and the - is that losing the game is always the same, regardless of how it was done, while + doesn't solve your problem, merely means you survived, and ++ has your rival victory condition addressed. A sells B and B sells A are the superior options, but if both agents pick the superior options, the outcome is inferior to if they both picked the inferior option. Google Nash Equilibrium.

    As for how it would be done... well, I can think of some ways... rival A goes over to the baddies and says "Hey, I'm a cultist who got scanned by the Seer and infiltrated the JL, hunt B, he's the Seer.", which even opens up possibilities whose potential far exceeds the one of your rival, like figuring out the baddies and getting them to do your bidding.

    Not to mention variants where apprentices can be stolen/turned etc, which means that the sooner you kill your apprentice, the better...
    The matrix looks more like this:

    A sells B and B sells A : A -, B -
    A doesn't sell B and B sells A : A -, B -
    A sells B and B doesn't sell A : A -, B -
    A doesn't sell B and B doesn't sell A : A +, B +

    Because killing the seer reduces the chance of your side winning, and the odds of you both surviving are small regardless. Your mistake is to assume that "rival" is the critical win condition. A balanced game will have a 50/50 win rate for each side. A typical game might have an 80% fatality rate. If you just let things go as normal, you have P = 0.5*0.8*0.2 = 0.08 for winning. Kill the seer, and assume the game remains balanced, and you have P = 0.5*0.2 = 0.1 for winning. You're gambling that killing the seer will leave your side with a better than 40% chance of winning, because any lower and you just screwed yourself over. Given how advantageous it is to have a seer and apprentice, I wouldn't take that bet.

    If you want a picture of the future, imagine an episode of Mr. Bean—forever.

  18. #978
    Most Valuable Dogg snoopdogg's Avatar
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    Kiwi makes me agree with him too much. I must kill him in the next game.
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  19. #979
    Well that was one way to get telesien a new signup.

    If you want a picture of the future, imagine an episode of Mr. Bean—forever.

  20. #980
    Field Marshal reis91's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capt. Kiwi View Post
    The matrix looks more like this:

    A sells B and B sells A : A -, B -
    A doesn't sell B and B sells A : A -, B -
    A sells B and B doesn't sell A : A -, B -
    A doesn't sell B and B doesn't sell A : A +, B +

    Because killing the seer reduces the chance of your side winning, and the odds of you both surviving are small regardless. Your mistake is to assume that "rival" is the critical win condition. A balanced game will have a 50/50 win rate for each side. A typical game might have an 80% fatality rate. If you just let things go as normal, you have P = 0.5*0.8*0.2 = 0.08 for winning. Kill the seer, and assume the game remains balanced, and you have P = 0.5*0.2 = 0.1 for winning. You're gambling that killing the seer will leave your side with a better than 40% chance of winning, because any lower and you just screwed yourself over. Given how advantageous it is to have a seer and apprentice, I wouldn't take that bet.
    But your side winning and you losing is, under the conditions of the problem, as bad as your side losing and you losing. And like I said, you cannot draw the conclusion that killing the seer reduces the chance of your side winning as if it was an universal conclusion. And no, you didn't screw yourself over, remember, you are playing to win the game. And, if you let things go as normal, the other guy is bound to realize he's got to take you down before you do the same to him.

    So, under my initial "play-to-win" condition, your matrix does not represent the situation properly.
    Come and hunt your fellow Paradoxians in the Werewolf Forum

    What this means is that no one technically voted on the first day and we have all been auto-lynched. Since none of us were following ghost rules from that point forward, we are all banned from werewolf for life. - Cymsdale

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