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Australiana

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Questions Regarding Nazi Coup of Austria

Are there any conditions under which the Nazi coup of Austria will NOT happen?
 
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Quick answer: Yes, but unlikely.

Long answer: The coup of Austria can happen anywhere between 1937 and 1945. To avoid it, you must prevent any Italo-German alliance and either of this:
Keep the Italian guarantee
Avoid any non aggression pact with GER.
Don't have minister = 1 (not sure about this one. I think that means "Adolf Hitler alive and in charge" of Germany in this case)
 
But if you're Germany and wanting to coup Austria, are there certain conditions that might prevent that from happening?

I believe not
 
I thought that you was talking from Austria perspective. In which year are you? Before 1939 there are only a small % of trigger.
You need any of the following to make it happen:
1. Non-agresion pact with Austria, Italians don't have their guarantee over Austria (Disappear with the Pact of Steel) and Hitler as Head of State
2. Be allied with Italy

For the Pact of Steel, you need:
1. URSS exist
2. You (or any of the 3 mayor historical axis members) can't be allied with URSS, nor be in war against each other.
3. Any of the following: Allied with Italy, Sign the anti-cominterm pact in either form (less likely without Japan), be in March 1938 (90% of chance to trigger every 10 days)

So, unless you:
Allied with URSS and aren't allied with Italy
Are at war with Italy before the Pact of Steel (and are still at war)
DOW austria.

I don't see many other scenarios in which you don't get the event.
 
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Originally, I got to May of 1938 and it hadn't happened, so I loaded an earlier save, set the game speed to 'very fast' and, in effect, fast forwarded the game to see if the event would fire or not. But now I'm in June of '38 and the event still hasn't fired, which is unusual. I must point out that I am at war with Republican Spain (a nice way for your units to gain experience) and Venezuela (I want their oil & naval bases) and I have alliances with Nationalist Spain & Portugal, but I don't see that affecting the 'Coup' event as it hasn't before. It's really frustrating.
 
Let my explain it again. Let's see this part of the trigger:
OR = { random = 4 AND = { random = 55 year = 1938 } year = 1939 }
This mean:
Before 1938: 4% of chance (checked every 30 days due to the offset)
Before 1939: 4% of chance or 55% chance (also every 30 days)
1939: Always

In other words, and if the rest of the requirements are fulfilled, you have a 4% of probabilities to trigger the event before 1938, a 55% (59%?) of chance in 1938 and a 100% from 1939 to 1945 (When the event dies, and the event is always checked every 30 days). This also means that you are lucky that you use to get the event in 1938 (I only got it in 1938 once, from 10 games played)

Your other alliances doesn't matter (unless is with URSS... which isn't the case) nor your wars (unless is against Austria or Italy)
 
An alliance with Italy avoid the need for the Pact of Steel (and any requirement except for the year). And the anti-comintern pact isn't strictly necessary, just does the pact of Steel more likely to happen. Apart of that, you are correct.
 
The problem is that Italy often takes forever to trigger their decision, I'm not sure why, but sometimes they just don't do it.
You need to load as Italy and trigger their anti-comintern pact decision.

It's a rather annoying bug.
 
Well, I don't want it firing in the second half of 1938 and most certainly not in 1939, or it will surely throw everything else out of whack, right? If all the right conditions are in place for it to occur, then it should be firing within the first six months of 1938!