a few general tips for you(i've played a little bit to get a taste of it):
you need to have a good ally.your best 2 shots are armenia and byzantium.if you can get them both,then it's double awesome.
the name of your game is cyprus.evryone else has a ton of alliances and guarantees so no point looking into anyone else.cyprus is only allied with the knights,which are easy prey,and burgundy,which are too far away to do anything especially since they only have like 3 cogs,but they might get aragon in,although byzantium's fleet is quite cool and can hold onto that.
also,try to keep georgia alive at all costs.they're the only thing that keeps you away from the golden horde,the chobanids and all the other big sunni nations that'll eat you right after they get to border you.