The Sea People

Duke Leto said:

As far as I can tell, it's because all the rest of the confederacy with the exception of the Shardana and the Peleset are clearly identifiable as coming from Anatolia/The Aegean, and it therefore makes more sense for a unified confederacy to have been organized from a smaller area and subsequently settling out in the larger one than for a confederacy from a wider area to have organized itself over much greater distances.

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Is there any meaningful evidence that they were actually a "confederacy" or "organized"? I thought all we knew is that they were all wreaking havoc.

If we had worse records in the 10th century AD, we might be wondering who the "heathens" really were that were attacking Christian Europe. It might have been tempting to assume these mysterious Saracens, Vikings and Magyars must have been somehow related but it would have been a mistake.

We're not talking about a series of unrelated piecemeal attacks across an entire continental area over a century, we're talking about one, maybe two if you count the attack that Ramasses II repulsed early in his reign, instance of a massive attack on just Egypt by land and sea, with the peoples participating listed by Ramasses III. Ramasses III's reliefs pretty clearly indicated that it was one and only one epic battle to beat them off. Unless I really forget myself.

Duke Leto said:

We're not talking about a series of unrelated piecemeal attacks across an entire continental area over a century, we're talking about one, maybe two if you count the attack that Ramasses II repulsed early in his reign, instance of a massive attack on just Egypt by land and sea, with the peoples participating listed by Ramasses III. Ramasses III's reliefs pretty clearly indicated that it was one and only one epic battle to beat them off. Unless I really forget myself.

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They hit more than just Egypt though, and were possibly active before the reign of Ramasses III. Even Ramasses III fought at least 2 significant battles against them.

Duke Leto said:

Ramasses III's reliefs pretty clearly indicated that it was one and only one epic battle to beat them off.

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Sounds like propaganda to me.

Duke Leto said:

We're not talking about a series of unrelated piecemeal attacks across an entire continental area over a century, we're talking about one, maybe two if you count the attack that Ramasses II repulsed early in his reign, instance of a massive attack on just Egypt by land and sea, with the peoples participating listed by Ramasses III. Ramasses III's reliefs pretty clearly indicated that it was one and only one epic battle to beat them off. Unless I really forget myself.

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Muskeato said:

They hit more than just Egypt though, and were possibly active before the reign of Ramasses III. Even Ramasses III fought at least 2 significant battles against them.

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Yes, that has been my understanding. Going off Morris again (not an expert, but the closest book I have at hand and consistent with my memory) you have an attack on Egypt already in 1209 BC by some of the Sea Peoples, ruins in Greece and Syria from 10 years later indicating repeated attacks by sea, the Hittites plunged into crisis by something (attacks? or maybe droughts that triggered the attacks?), all before Ramesses III got hit in the 1170s. So a saga that lasted over a generation.

In this context I think it's pretty clear there wasn't just one attack and defeat; Ramasses could have been memorializing the truly critical battle against a single large incursion, but it could also be simply that a clear victory against a typical seasonal incursion was enough to brag about.

I've stated my understanding as clearly as I can...

I have my own personal theory. I believe they were indoeuropean remnants that suffered greatly because of social crisis or maybe a societal collapse and moved westward, maybe after rumours of prosperous lands or arable land? Maybe if they came from an area with little room for a large population the young people had to move away like the Vikings did