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The Historic Inevitabilty of Epic Failure

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Dauth said:
WRT to tariffs how many overseas provinces will disappear when he connects his empire? Also while we're discussing ideas is switching them cheesy? Probably not cheesy enough to put Prawn off changing one or two throughout the game but maybe cheesy to do it multiple times.
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None, the capital isn't on the continent so nothing more will be connected.

As far as changing NIs goes, no way that's cheesy IMO. A basic game mechanic that punishes you quite sufficiently compared to the small advantage it may bring. That said, I'm not sure any changes are needed.
 
Well, it's borderline cheesy to change ideas because the AI does not change ideas.

On the other hand, given the Japan situation (beautifully resolved, by the way), the AI does have a little cheese coming.
 
I haven't given a lot of thought to changing NIs yet.

I expect to have colonised everywhere by 1770 and possibly as early as 1755. Swapping colonial ideas after settling the final colony doesn't seem cheesy to me. At that stage those ideas have had their day.
 
The only decision that Prawnstar doesn't have is Benign Neglect that adds 4% to colonist chance and 4% to colonist growth and that's triggered by low BB and the Humanist Tolerance NI. It's of questionnable benfit to England at this stage. Tech's are increasing together, so Smithian economic is of little value. Alternating Bohemia and Milan provides the excitement for the next few years and swallowing the Aztecs just leaves the Shawnee, with the embassy.
 
One reason income went up when he is at war.
Due to sieges he is losing the overseas modifier for asia.
 
PrawnStar said:
I haven't given a lot of thought to changing NIs yet.

I expect to have colonised everywhere by 1770 and possibly as early as 1755. Swapping colonial ideas after settling the final colony doesn't seem cheesy to me. At that stage those ideas have had their day.
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Indeed, that's also why ideas unlock after a certain level.
 
PrawnStar, for what it's worth, I more or less agree; the only idea swap that definitely is on the wrong side of the cheese divide is the Church Attendance Duty -> Gilded Iconography -> anything-but-CAD-switcheroo (or really, any ideas that are only in effect for a very short while to do other things).
 
Wow, I peek back at this every few weeks and am blown away by what you are able to do. Thank you, and the other commenters, for the education and inspiration. I compared the world map from chapter 51 to my (slightly later) world map in failed Ottomans WC this AAR inspired. You are further ahead in territory, 25 years earlier, and your cardinals will burn more BB than I fell short by. There is inevitability indeed, but not of failure.
 


FEEDBACK​


Dauth - Thanks for the explanation, it did have that feel of an event chain when I hit it. Yes I am trying to use my spies to help rearrange European borders - not terribly successfully to be honest but I'll keep trying.

Chilango2 - Ah, you've just encountered the famous British sense of humour. Don't worry it hardly ever survives transatlantic flights. I have an old friend who married a New York girl and settled in Long Island - she has no idea how to deal with me :) Japan doesn't work quite right - the disbanding only occurs with two or fewer Daimyos - it didn't work when I occupied all the capitals with thre Daimyos left.

Aminti - Yeah lived through it, the Innovative hit is a bit annoying but not the end of the world. Milan have ate Denmark, there is a fair bit of change in Central Europe - almost yearly

vasziljevics - I had a long spell of good rulers so I can't comp[lain.

GaiusC - The Incas had a couple of thousand Gold but it's not worth the trouble - minting for a month yields about 8000 now.

Chilango2 - Rebels aren't a big problem and the empire isn't very rebellious - I've been converting everyone to Catholism and that really helps

Chief Ragusa - I showed those troops as a little tease :) Naval 38 is the last level of Naval tech I'll bother wih although I might not actually build any threedeckers - there's a distinct shortage of hostile navies.

homy_dog34 - I was delighted to see Japan work out in game - I didn't want to have to use the console or edit the save.

loki100 - Here's the thing, there's only one resource in game - BB - everything else is a distraction and it's very easy to get distracted doing things that would be obvious and sensible in most games.

vranasm - I'm one of those people who reads widely and has a good memory so I know a bit about all sorts of stuff. I read a lot about the 30 years war a few years back but other that than my main interest in Bohemia was a young lady from Prague I met on a training course at work :cool:

beckdawg - I agree with your basic premise, I haven't built any army buildings while the AI countries have ( I have lots in captured cores) so the AI should have higher manpower province by province.

Malurous - I'm really on top of the rebels - apart from a several decade long English Particularist revolt on St Helena which I did crush on reading the feedback about the event chain.

Chieron - That sums it up pretty well for Japan.

Athalcor - It's always worth trying out a few deas to solve a problem :)

sprites - I had good ones last century so maybe I'll have bad ones this century :sad:

Ashantai - I don't think there are any other glitches now Japan is gone.

Franconian - Hopefully not but I will be going back to an Elected Republic eventually.

Chilango2 - Yeah, elections are the answer.

Merrick Chance' - I have QftNW, CV and LoO - maybe Viceroys at some point in the future.

beckdawg - Excommunication never seems to offer that many interesting possibilities in practice. It didn't cross my mind to vassalise a Trade League, I do wonder how that would work out if anyone wants to try.

chgrogers - That explains why Excommunication never seems to offer much.

Barsoom - I didn't need the money from looting Inca so I just annexed. About Colonies now I'm just worrying what will happen if someone gets an explorer loose. I expect that my approach will work very well and that I'll finish colonising the world with decades to spare.

Dauth & GaiusC- Not sure how you plan to connect to London, what with the Channel and all that ;)

Malurous - Good to see someone knows where London is!

Chief Ragusa - I'm not taking Humanist Tolerance as it reduces Papal Influence and I need Cardinals.

dragonizer - Possibly but the Channel gets in the way and I suspect the main reason for war time economic boost is the better price for some trade goods.

yabba - I quite like CAD as well although more for Papal influence and countering Heresy than the Stab cost cut.

seedle - Wow, great to hear I inspired you to have a go at game like this - the Ottomans look a very interesting possibilty for this type of game. What strategy did you use, where did you expand first etc?



Chilango2, GaiusC, Barsoom, Minigrinch, beckdawg, Silly, blsteen

Changing NIs - I expect I'll swap out some Colonial ones once I've colonised everywhere. I don't see swapping the Colonial ideas as cheesy once they have become obsolete. Military Drill I want to help storm forts while DS & CAD help with Papal Influence. I'll probably take Economic boosters in place of QftNW/CV/LoO at some point in the future. I make around 5 colonists a year now and want to finish colonising by 1770.




 



CHAPTER FIFTY THREE​


At the start of 1708 BB has dropped to 5.40 / 20.00 falling at 3.30 a year. Clearly time for war.

War with Bohemia and several minors.

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Early exchanges

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This is the culmination of a series of battles across Eastern Europe where I’ve inflicted far more casualties than I’ve taken. I ran out of morale rather than troops, a shame as that fresh reinforcement stack is only days away. Delaying the follow up allows an easy stack wipe on half the Bohemians while my units recover on home soil.

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Elsewhere…

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Yes that’s a vassalise an OPM neighbour mission. The plan is complete that straight after peace with Bohemia.

More war and some further colonisation in the Indian Ocean and further East.

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By mid summer all of Bohemia’s allies bar vassal Pomerania have left the war so I’m at +39 war score.

Another Lord Protector - December 1708

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This chap isn’t all that good in the Diplomacy stat either so he can take service with the rather busy Peruvian garrison as well.

Peace with Bohemia - February 1709

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BB is 17.93 / 20.00 falling at 3.30 a year so…

Peace with Württemberg

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The rest of that alliance accepts a white peace within days. Interesting new mission. Also my new vassal is at war with a neighbour, OPM Republican Ulm…

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December 1709 and the negative event chain is over even if the outcome isn’t that great - I’m not that excited about going Innovative. Notice Ulm has annexed Württemberg, once BB has dropped a little further that will be my next target. 1710 is without anything of note. By July 1711 BB is down to 8.29 / 20.00 falling at 3.00 a year and my truces with the former Daimyos have expired. I DOW both using the Reconquest CB to reclaim my three cores.

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Operations in Japan are already winding down just two months later when

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War with Republican two province minor Ulm, Imperialism CB to annex. They have friends…

Mid September and peace has returned to Japan as the cores are reclaimed.

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It takes until April 1712 to establish control over Ulm’s two provinces (four failed assaults) and so manoeuvre into a position to start some more wars…

Ulm is annexed

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Milan is DOWed using Imperialism - this is to grab land and keep BB topped up

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Salzburg is DOWed using the vassalisation CB from the mission so I can get the BB reduction.

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Loads of minors in this one.

I’m not popular so I peace out Bohemia (war leader from the Ulm war) for cash and cores. To be fair I’m still not that popular.

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The summer of 1712 also sees me up to date with technology across all categories at Level 36. Once I reach Naval 38 and Three Deckers I’ll stop researching naval tech - I have enough bases that any further increase in support range is of no value.

Salzburg vassalised - August 1712

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Naval Victory over Milan

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Luneburg accepts a white peace for the rest of the Salzburg coalition a few weeks later.

The rest of 1712 and much of 1713 is very quiet, one-sided battles and sieges. Burgundy annexes Brunswick late in the year regaining a port. With no Burgundian core I’ve fifty years to do something about it. I’m in a position to make peace but since I hold the Milanese embassy in Trent I benefit from it’s extra 0.4 annual BB reduction. I’m going to run BB down to just above zero before making peace.

June 1714 and the Timurids end with a whimper

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There’s no great hurry to eliminate the Hordes but I do want them gone in the next few decades. If nothing else they complicate the colonisation of Siberia.

As August 1417 starts BB is down to 0.18 / 20.00, it’s time for peace with Milan.

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The land grab in the North removes Milan’s Finnish and Russian cultured provinces to remove the danger of revolters (especially Novgorod to put the Chief’s mind at rest). Trent and Tirol link my holdings in Eastern and Western Europe. This should let the two Bavarian cultured provinces revolt back to Bavaria who I need to strengthen as a consolidator in Southern Germany. The Italian and Greek provinces are just normal reduction of the enemy.

BB is 18.18 / 20.00 falling at 3.10 a year.




 
I note Phyrrus has moved to Bohemia with those losses they suffer while winning. Good going with cutting Milan down to size and the OPM-vassilise-string made me smile. Your rulers are improving, but 5 diplo isn't good. 8 military might be good for decent-y stats as a General - knowing your luck it'll be a 3/3/3/1 guy though. Hope he runs into some feral alpacas soon... Burgundy getting a port back is useless without having a core and Milan is going to be rebuilding before they'll be doing anything else.

It's really your game to lose right now. Just make sure that you get rid of some loose ends like the blue daimyo before they come back to haunt you.
 
I've been testing the vassalization of a trade league early on in my games. Occasionally they will convert governments(i think) and cause the trade stations to close. I have no real idea why they would convert but whatever. As for the benefit, I think some one more interested in math than me might wanna do some calculations to see where the break even is. I think trade league funnels all your trade into that league and then since you have them vassalized you get half of their income not necessarily their trade. You also get the additional tax and lower revolt risk.

In my games I've been playing as france it seems as though my COT are rather poor anyways so the loss isn't great and as such I think it's almost always worth while to do if you can. As an added benefit you also boost the vassal's ability to be helpful in a war.

Also, I have to say after trying this myself on normal I am quite impressed with your planning. I'm sure playing a lot has helped but I keep running into gotcha's and then decide to restart with my new knowledge. For example, it is probably smart to run up your infamy before dealing with the the hordes. In my current game I ended up with high WE and needing a war to get infamy with the only CB's being england and HRE members or going up against high WE mamaluks. It's really a delicate balance you have to strike to keep infamy low enough for cardinals but high enough so you don't run out.
 
Good update. :) Now I don't have to guess where you end and the Timmies begin! Also, it's nice seeing Milan's name plastered across Scandinavia (although it was kinda cheesy to hold on to Trent that long);).

Couple of questions, though: now that you've connected both halves of your empire, do you think you'll get an income boost? Also, what stacks are you running in terms of Cav/Inf ratios?
 
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Some more very nice work.
Looks like OPM's are on the endangered species list:laugh:
Nice results in the naval battle.
 
Were the Balkans originally distant overseas? Are they still distant overseas after you gained a connection through Italy? Otherwise very nice work. What are your plans for Scandinavia? How likely are rebels to form Denmark/Norway etc?
 
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