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The Historic Inevitabilty of Epic Failure

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Always nice to know people are reading. Sadly this is going a lot slower than previous efforts as I just don't have as much time or energy. It's mainly due to work. Take today, up at 5.30am as I had to attend a six hour workshop on a customer site 3 hours travel away - with enough potential conflict that my boss has ducked out of responsibilty and I had to pick it up with his boss about just what can I say no to in front of the customer. Still the only way to get the interesting jobs is to prove you can sort out the tricky stuff and I get so very bored doing routine work.
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First off, you're Prawnstar. People are always reading!

Secondly, I'm really quite glad that you're going as slowly as you are. It means that I actually could (and have) catch up. And it meant that I could read at a pace that was completely comfortable to myself, since, while I'm nowhere near as busy as you, I kind of have regimented days.

And lastly . . . you get bored doing routine work? Really? How in blazes did you get through your Golden Horde game, then? :p
 
Quite right, I did miss the numbers. This does mean that expanding the barque fleet is definatly worthwhile.

114 ships gives 36% eff (74 ducats) therefore ~320 would be enough to get to 100% which in turn would give ~200 ducats / year. An increase of ~125 ducats a year from 1600-1821 which is a total return of over 25000 ducats. Even by subtracting the cost of 200+ boats at about 20 each (up to 30 later on so we'll average at 25) is a cost of 5000 which leaves a 20000 profit.

All of which assumes that you don't upgrade navies and can get boats instantly but the general idea here is that its so early in the game that the investment will pay for itself many times over and with all that money its possible to tech faster or build bigger armies. If Prawn is building up ship capacity in Britain which he may be since recruiting there is a pain with transports then it may take 10-20 years to get everything running and enough boats but its still a massive advantage come late game.

The only navy to fear is Brunei but a few extra big ships should solve that nicely then its just spamming obsence numbers of small ships and leaving them in ports on pirate duty.
 
So you're one level behind Milan in Land tech, how is Bohemia doing in that category?

dragonizer said:
What trade level enables 5 and 6 level buildings?
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23 and 27 I think.
 
Well, this update puts the European situation quite in perspective. So, I gather that a DoW on Milan would be a messy mess at this point and the only way of keeping Bohemia out of your war with Milan would be declaring war on Bohemia too :D ( in fact that might be the least bad option at this point ... DoWing Bohemia, get a ninja victory on them ( the good ol'blitz to Prague ) and DoWing Milan before sealing the Bohemian peace deal. Not warranty that Bohemia would not be called later by one of those OPM that Milan would drag into its war, though ). You also have the option of letting the situation rot in vines until, by some accident, Bohemia and Milan paths diverge ( say, religious rifts? How is the religious situation in Europe? The reform is spreading or not ? ), but I would not count on that, due to the sheer lack of expansion options both Milan and Bohemia have at this point outside of HRE ( due to a certain red blob in the map ;) ).

In the end I would prepare to do this the hard way and do the big war....
 
Ricardo Rolo said:
That is probably unlikely ( no HRE shot for a while, so can't say for certain, but I really can't see the electors choosing someone besides Bohemia at this point )
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He can vassalize away Bohemia's voters. Or he can vassalize all the electors and dismantle the HRE (as he can't be Emperor because he's in a Republic and therefore if he vassalizes all the electors, the HRE can be dismantled).
 
England is in fine state. You're doing OK on tech, relative to the big competitors. I take it that Ulm is this game's OPM tech leader and you're not far behind them either, despite your large overseas empire. Your tariffs are hopeless, I hope Dauth's calculations convinced you that it's worthwile to expand your navy.

Interesting that Milan is stronger than Bohemia economically and its military equal. They should clash at some point. I'm curious to see where Burgundy goes at that point. With all the focus on Bohemia and Milan, I forgot about them but they're still pretty strong, the 3rd power in Europe and big enough to change the balance between the other two. I'm sure Chief Ragusa is right and you could win a war at 4:1 odds but looking at these figures, I think you should just wait for an inevitable European war. After all, Europe is a sideshow while there are better CB's to pursue.

I like your idea of making a slow start on colonization. So far, the only country to take QftNW has been a scripted second tier colonizer so there's no reason to panic; I really don't think there's a Milanese colonization spree around the corner. But it doesn't hurt to preempt the Europeans by starting in on the Atlantic islands.

Looking at the map, it seems you succeeded in your plan to let Hindustan take Ceylon. Maldives are too small to see but from here. I get that you're afraid of Brunei's navy while at the same time wary of them collapsing. Your last war showed the way forward then, winning a 40-point victory on land to nibble away at the edges. Just make sure to take Peking off them next time (assuming your Ming conquests reach that far by then). Funny that the world's number 4 and 5 military powers are your most recent (and near future) victims.
 
Indeed, there are better targets. It does appear that the Maldives has been taken by Hindustan. Whilst England could fight MIlan et al, to create the killing zone of forts for attrition to take effect would be a waste of magistrates need for the 5/6 trade buildings. Taking cores off Bohemia will eventually cause Bohemia to cease being Emperor. Naval build up is likely to be slow allowing for the taking of more land off Ming. Although land won't be taken off tribals until after 1650, there's nothing to stop Mutapa's treasury being emptied a few times.

What's your current mission?

Taking on Bohemia could lead to your fighting 250000. Given your rate of expansion, you probably need another couple of filed armies, anyway. Ebven Bohemia requires a certain amount of finesse.
 



FEEDBACK​


homy_dog34 - That's the heart of the matter, fighting Bohemia and Milan together does not look nice.

Barbarossa_TSG - In my test game I fell dozens of provinces short, nothing has happened yet to persuade me that won't happen again.

Arakhor - Maybe...

Chief Ragusa - I thought I'd show some detail on the whole DOW Milan business as it's rather trickier than people imagined! I won't have any colonists to spare for Siberia for some time - I'll need them all for the Americas.I intend to bulk up the fleet in the Indian Ocean and invade Brunei and Japan properly.

Dauth - Bohemia hasn't got past the fifth reform, I suspect they got that far farming Imperial Authority trashing the Nomads and I've closed off that route. The galley was scheduled for disbanding until I used it as a scout in Novgorodian waters to track their fleet with potential explorer before Milan got all Borg on them. Since then I forgot about it.

Zvetiki - I know I should add more ships but the neval side of the game almost completely escapes me so I don't get around to it.

PdoxNewbie - No, no world conquest if there are uncolonised territories.

dragonizer - You're probably right there - I should spam barques and profit. If I get around to it :) Trade buildings come in at 23 & 27.

Yammka - An AAR is a project, once done I don't have to it again every month until I retire so I'm OK with that - it's when I keep having to do the same stuff I get bored. Good to know you like the pace I'm updating at, it feels slow to me but that can't be helped.

Dauth - So definitely a case of barques = profit! I'll probably add more light ships - in my test game I keep building extra light ships in Ireland untilI ended with about 40 in each of the five Irish ports.

Malurous - Bohemia is Land 22 so not much in it really.

Ricardo Rolo - That's pretty much the case, Milan is a hard war to say the least. I'd like to see Milan and Bohemia go head to head. Europe is predominantly Catholic with around fifty non-Catholic provinces of all types.

uat2d - Bohemia seems nailed into the Imperial Throne, if anyone challenges it's most commonly Burgundy.

Ricardo Rolo & uat2d - I'll probably ignore the Empire for a few more decades, dismantling will eventually occur but there's no real timeframe yet. To a large extent I'm waiting and seeing what the game throws up.

Barsoom - Tech isn't too bad is it - it's the pretty strong trade performance and of course I've be converting like crazy as well. Tariffs, I know, I know, people keep telling me...

Agree on the whole 'no point worrying about Europe when I can Holy War instead' thing. If I get an opportunity I get an opportunity. Hindustan has reclaimed Ceylon and the Maldives so I can go back to warring against them, Wu will fall at the same time. No panic yet about colonisation but definitely time to start with precautions - I have no idea who might take what once we get to NI's 7+.

Chief Ragusa - Europe won't be my focus until after 1650. Current mission is the 100% tariff one - even the game is telling me to spam barques :rofl:








 


CHAPTER THIRTY FOUR​

So what next?

There are three medium term (next fifty years) areas of interest:

Holy Warring: The Holy War CB (25% cost for provinces and annexations of heathens) expires at the start of 1650. It needs to be used as far as possible to drive ever deeper into Asia. I had originally aimed to be at the Chinese coast with India and South East Asia occupied by 1650. I’ll get far beyond that. There are approximately 80 provinces in mainland Asia that can be Holy Warred with a further 55 or so in Japan and offshore Brunei. I have roughly 100 BB to spend in the next 50 years so I aim to clear most of mainland Asia and either annex Brunei or cripple Japan. The two Indian OPMs in the Punjab will be ignored in the hope one gets the upper hand and annexes the other.

Colonisation: I’ve five colonies underway in Africa (all with the Tropical penalty) but as they complete I’ll start exploring. I’d like to block as many as possible of the empty provinces reachable from Europe without discovering the new world tribes. I don’t want to have to attack the tribes before 1650 even though they are very cheap (0.8BB a province) simply because that will reduce the amount of Holy Warring I can do. The Colonial CB doesn’t go away so I can take out the tribes as soon as the Holy War finishes. In terms of exploration I don’t want to find any tribes before 1620 so the map spread doesn’t reach Europe until 1670 when I’ve had time to seize the tribal coasts.

So where will I go? The initial targets will be the Atlantic islands to prevent them being used as forward bases before I head for Brazil - lots of coast to block without any tribes. Afterwards there will be a rather careful push into the Caribbean to grab the islands without uncovering the mainland coast. Remember this colonisation is going to be a century and a half late - just about every European with a port will have the colonial range to settle the Americas if they see the opportunity.

Europe: I intend to grab my cores if the opportunity arises. Over the last few decades I’ve been able to steal one or two provinces at a time from Bohemia so that process should continue. However, the Milanese cores are another matter. A direct attack on Milan that brings in Imperial Bohemia along with all the allies/vassals and triggering lots of warnings will be lost. I’ll be massively outnumbered on a very large frontline a bad, bad recipe. Much thought will have to given to engineering a situation where I can reclaim my cores using the right CB. Of course there’s always a place for opportunism and it’s probably front and centre.

As I’ve said previously the approach to the economy is going to be turbo’d trade by spamming Level 5 & 6 buildings as these will push my trade income very high.


 
Holy wars should be your biggest concern, since there is a time limit on them.

That being said, you seen to have really maximized their use, and colonies seem to be the best next path.

Good luck, but you probably won't need it.
 
Sound plans. The only drawback I can see is leaving Khorasan to the Timmies, who will surely be forced to release / lose against rebels / suffer a succession crisis.
 
If you're going for an upsurge in shipping, consider swapping out Military Drill for Grand Fleet to double your naval limits. Milan is your main rival. It used to lose wars with Bohemia. It's now getting to be a size where it will start winning those wars. it may take Quest next, just because England has. I('m sure you will not stop your focus. They have got a big lead naval tach wise. Milan oughtto focus on Scandinavia and Murom - places outside the Empire. Your attack on Bohemia is going to trigger most of the warning states to DoW. You may want to ignore Europe. Doesn't mean the feeling is mutual.
 
As I don't have the minutiae of your fine AAR in memory - when will your Milan-held cores un-core? As earlier established, the provinces in Europe might come at a high BB cost, so if 50 years would be allowed to pass without war between you and Milan (and IIRC, Milan weren't in your last war with Bohemia, were they?) that's possibly 16 BB to add to the list. That would be at least 6-7 years of BB burn (pre-Cabinet), right?
 
Barsoom said:
Sound plans. The only drawback I can see is leaving Khorasan to the Timmies, who will surely be forced to release / lose against rebels / suffer a succession crisis.
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+1 ,even on the Khorasan issue ... those guys just won't stay dead *cue zombie gif* . Holy war until your fingers bleed ( btw remember that you only need to start the war before 1 of January of 1650 to use Holy war CB ( as far as concerns the game, you can even end a war in 1820 that it will still be a Holy War if you start it as one ) , so technically you might have have wars up to the mid 1650 decade that still use it ( and it's infamy cost ). Depending of the length you put on those wars ,you might get quite some more extra BB mileage than the one you calculated above ), then the tribes, then whatever is left by that time ... and grab all the cores you can ( cores in this variant are a godsend ;) )
 
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rustic said:
As I don't have the minutiae of your fine AAR in memory - when will your Milan-held cores un-core?
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If there's no opportunity to claim the cores, it might be worthwhile to either warn Milan or find some weaker ally / guarantee target of Milan's to DoW just to get into a war with them. That is to say, if the land can't be taken BB-free in time he can at least reset the core loss timers.
 
Malurous said:
If there's no opportunity to claim the cores, it might be worthwhile to either warn Milan or find some weaker ally / guarantee target of Milan's to DoW just to get into a war with them. That is to say, if the land can't be taken BB-free in time he can at least reset the core loss timers.
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Why go through all that trouble, when we could simply park all his doomstacks near the cores with Milan and another to make a run at Bohemia's capital?

Look at all his land, he can field a massive army if he wants. All he needs is to secure the borders, leave some guys to quell rebellions and hit Milan hard. Perhaps force them to release a country or two if he can afford it before peacing them out, see if he breaks them in the process. Then he can still go to Bohemia, fight them a little and take it from there. Sure, easier said than done, but it's not impossible, the hard part is certainly behind for him.
 
Chief Ragusa said:
If you're going for an upsurge in shipping, consider swapping out Military Drill for Grand Fleet to double your naval limits.
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MIlitary Drill - IMO is almost a must on VH diff.
Over force limit for navy does not cost very much.
Gaining Stab. back from changing NI IMO not very cost effective.
 
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