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Werewolf CXX - Shipwrecked

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sbr said:
Is it that, or does vote analysis in its present form just not work anymore?

Even AOK, at the height of his powers, never used vote analysis alone to find wolves. It was just one tool in the toolbox that helped to make the case against people. Eventually he shared his "secrets" with everyone else and that is where the game changed, IMO. Now everyone not only knew how to analyze votes, but they knew how to defeat it as well; so we had more people analyzing but at the same time we had more people who knew how to game the system. This made it a wash, at best for the village as they became more and more dependant on vote analysis while forgetting about every other way to find wolves.

Now we have the worst of all worlds. Everyone insists that there be 2-3 people "run up" every day, no bandwagons and no throw away votes guarantee this. Then at some point late in the day someone has to take a stand and make a decision, and that results in one person being lynched by a specific person, or two, and the other candidates being saved by the same people. Now if the person that is lynched happens to be bad, we celebrate and the decision-maker is heralded as a hero. If the victim is good, then people automatically assume that at least one of the other candidates is bad and try to figure out who "saved" who.

This then becomes a self-feeding system. In the early days no one knows anything, but the same rules apply, close vote no TIEs. Since the majority of the players are good the odds are that most of the leading vote getters will be good, but this doesn't matter because we don't know anything else so we focus on the same people over and over. Even if we get unlucky and find a wolf in this mess every wolf pack out there knows how to game the system and we should never find any packmates in incriminating positions.

I haven't played much recently, so maybe vote analysis does still work and I am just seeing a very bad run this game.
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I have been away from Werewolf for many months (and even before that I only played once in about 9 months), and reading this explanation is quite enlightening. Of course, that is just the way everything has shaken out in how we play this game, but your analysis of that system seems spot on.
 
THIS is the most successful werewolf game since Refugees. And it's not done yet.

hats off to johho888
 
Oh and people completely misunderstanding my posts and thinking they were suspicious...
 
Paendrag said:
I really thought OY was a baddie.. End.. I was wrong but you and King had fared no better.. And you both will be wrong again when you hang me up..
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I'm not actually interested in seeing you hang today. Yeah, your vote record isn't stellar, but I'm not convinced. And unlike some you're actually talking.

sbr said:
Who can we settle on as an alternative? Nobody seems to listen to my idea about Nautilu, why not? He has done nothing all game. I would be willing to move to almost anyone else that a case can be made for. How about tamius/AOK, that role has been a deadspot all game.
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tamius? I guess I'm game for that.

Paendrag said:
Esemesas voted a third party and does seem to like ties a lot..
I still don't like King's and Randy's "friendly advices" but sure..
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.. or that.
Unvote humancalculator
Vote esemesas


sbr said:
Is it that, or does vote analysis in its present form just not work anymore?
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Oh, it works alright. But it really depends on how you apply it.

sbr said:
Even AOK, at the height of his powers, never used vote analysis alone to find wolves. It was just one tool in the toolbox that helped to make the case against people. Eventually he shared his "secrets" with everyone else and that is where the game changed, IMO. Now everyone not only knew how to analyze votes, but they knew how to defeat it as well; so we had more people analyzing but at the same time we had more people who knew how to game the system. This made it a wash, at best for the village as they became more and more dependant on vote analysis while forgetting about every other way to find wolves.
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Well, you'll get no argument from me there. It isn't the only tool in the toolbox. The thing is, very few people have done *proper* analysis at all this game. King did a very good piece on vain yesterday, and that one got a wolf, but he did much more than stare at the overall summary of the game - he actually looked at reasoning and context. *That* is how you catch wolves.

sbr said:
Now we have the worst of all worlds. Everyone insists that there be 2-3 people "run up" every day, no bandwagons and no throw away votes guarantee this. Then at some point late in the day someone has to take a stand and make a decision, and that results in one person being lynched by a specific person, or two, and the other candidates being saved by the same people. Now if the person that is lynched happens to be bad, we celebrate and the decision-maker is heralded as a hero. If the victim is good, then people automatically assume that at least one of the other candidates is bad and try to figure out who "saved" who.
Click to expand...


sbr said:
I haven't played much recently, so maybe vote analysis does still work and I am just seeing a very bad run this game.
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I think it's just this game. Most of the frontrunners have seemed rather questionable at best to me (with the notable exceptions of pevergreen and yakman), and I've more than once wondered why the heck so many people were voting the way they did.
 
Official vote count, 1h 2min to deadline

esemesas - 6 - Lord_D, Rockingluke, Paendrag, sbr, humancalculator, randakar
Paendrag - 4 - Trinitrotolouen, Kingepyon, walrus2, Kriszo
Kingepyon - 2 - Najs, Boris ze Spider2
jacob-Lundgren - 1 - Taiisatai64
Najs - 1 - esemesas
Taiisatai64 - 1 - jacob-Lundgren
randakar - 1 - Falc

not voted - 2 - Nautilu, tamius24

Missed one vote - Nautilu, Kriszo
 
Pffffft, I've loved TIEs since my first game.

See, sbr, first of all, it's not hard to type my name. Just check the first page and copy from it. Second of all, the whole "run up 2-3 candidates in an orderly fashion" ordeal started a few months ago when a string of baddie victories came because of bandwagons and sudden AOK-like switches. Oh, also TIEs, so now no-one likes them :(

My theory is that the player base has changed. We lack strong personalities, people who can lead others not by arguments, but by sheer force of will. AOK is a good example. So when there are very few players like that, it's very easy for the baddies to lead the village by the nose. I tried a sudden switch on Lord_D two days ago and no-one followed. Not a single person. Had AOK done it, Lord_D would have been lynched. We're like a nomadic tribe that has finally settled down.

One of you, Kinge or Paendrag is a wolf... But I'm probably going to die today.

Unvote Najs
Vote Paendrag
 
sbr said:
How do you define successful? Lynching villagers, eating wolves, shooting Seer's Apprentices?
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Number of posts, I believe.

And you are right. Vote analysis rarely, if ever, has worked. All attempts to change the system, though, are viewed as "wolfish", and thus those people are summarily lynched before they can actually get anywhere with it.
 
Vote Paendrag

It has to be done.




I'm terribly sorry I haven't been able to contribute much. I've been distracted by a lot of things and I feel fairly apathetic towards this game right now.
 
OrangeYoshi said:
Number of posts, I believe.

And you are right. Vote analysis rarely, if ever, has worked. All attempts to change the system, though, are viewed as "wolfish", and thus those people are summarily lynched before they can actually get anywhere with it.
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It can work, if you cross it with other information. And I contest that the wolves have "outgrown analysis", as analysis is a neverending arms race. For example:

Mr Wolf knows that in the current metagame, he should vote early and avoid changing his vote unless he got cover from the village, as that will draw attention. A good analyser knows this, and attempts to trigger situations where Mr. Wolf is led to believe he can change his vote. In turn, Mr. Wolf2, having learned from Wolf1, is suspicious of certain villagers manipulating the game to get the wolves to expose themselves, and decides that they must act rashly, with the excuse that a wolf would never act so rashly, in order to confound the analyser. And then the analyzed can use this to improve his analysis. It's a cycle. There may be periods where either faction has an advantage, but it will all cancel out in the end.
 
reis91 said:
It can work, if you cross it with other information. And I contest that the wolves have "outgrown analysis", as analysis is a neverending arms race. For example:

Mr Wolf knows that in the current metagame, he should vote early and avoid changing his vote unless he got cover from the village, as that will draw attention. A good analyser knows this, and attempts to trigger situations where Mr. Wolf is led to believe he can change his vote. In turn, Mr. Wolf2, having learned from Wolf1, is suspicious of certain villagers manipulating the game to get the wolves to expose themselves, and decides that they must act rashly, with the excuse that a wolf would never act so rashly, in order to confound the analyser. And then the analyzed can use this to improve his analysis. It's a cycle. There may be periods where either faction has an advantage, but it will all cancel out in the end.
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Oh, of course. But quite often people try to go off vote analysis alone, and those people are almost always outsmarted by the opposing side.

Your example is great (and true), but it's missing one thing: Villagers. The villagers don't know that so-and-so was trying to bait wolf1, or that wolf2 did something different because he saw what happened to wolf1. So the villagers, then, try to avoid suspicion on their own, looking like wolves in the process. Then they are lynched simply for trying to not get wrongfully killed...
 
Vote Najs. I am terribly sorry but again just do not have enought time to analyze today. I do not think a tie right now is such a good idea, but simply do not know which of the candidates would be a better bet, so will play it safe and try to read up in the meantime. If I have enought time to do that I will try to break the tie but do not want to make an uninformed desicision.
 
TIE? tamius strikes again!
 
Final vote count

esemesas - 6 - Lord_D, Rockingluke, Paendrag, sbr, humancalculator, randakar
Paendrag - 6 - Trinitrotolouen, Kingepyon, walrus2, Kriszo, esemesas, tamius24
Kingepyon - 2 - Najs, Boris ze Spider2
jacob-Lundgren - 1 - Taiisatai64
Taiisatai64 - 1 - jacob-Lundgren
randakar - 1 - Falc
Najs - 1 - Nautilu

not voted - 0 - :)

Missed one vote - Nautilu, Kriszo
 
johho888 said:
Final vote count

esemesas - 6 - Lord_D, Rockingluke, Paendrag, sbr, humancalculator, randakar
Paendrag - 5 - Trinitrotolouen, Kingepyon, walrus2, Kriszo, esemesas, tamius24
Kingepyon - 2 - Najs, Boris ze Spider2
jacob-Lundgren - 1 - Taiisatai64
Taiisatai64 - 1 - jacob-Lundgren
randakar - 1 - Falc
Najs - 1 - Nautilu

not voted - 0 - :)

Missed one vote - Nautilu, Kriszo
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Paendrag has 6 votes...

EDIT: Nevermind.
 
Nineth Day and Nineth Night

hurricanerz.jpg

Same picture as yesterday​

You lynched Thursday the Womanizer Villager and Honeycombe Afterport the formerly Blessed Guardian Angel..

During the night the wolves ate Styrman Lundgren the Guardian Angel.

Also freak lightning struck and killed mr Lambchops the 5th in command Spiritually Attuned Villager and kapitány Kriszo the Cursed Brutal Spiritually Attuned Sorcerer's Apprentice with the Touch of Evil.

You lynched esemesas the Womanizer Villager and Paendrag the formerly Blessed Guardian Angel
jacob-Lundgren the Guardian Angel was eaten by the wolves.
Najs the 5th in command Spiritually Attuned Villager was autokilled (lack of subs).
Kriszo the Cursed Brutal Spiritually Attuned Sorcerer's Apprentice with the Touch of Evil was autokilled (lack of subs).
 
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