Turn 17 - Early January 1920: The Great Retreat
The supply situation is growing more and more desperate on the Siberian front. I expect the first units to exhaust their meager supplies this turn. Starvation is around the corner. Empty supply trains are retreated or hurriedly transformed into new depots. Troops are railed behind the Ural on a massive scale. Offensive operations cease almost entirely.
Northern front: The fighting didn't cease along the Kama. Pepeliaev assaulted Sarapul. Trapped by the ice, 20 Red river ships were blown up before they could fall into White hands (from my experience only fleets consisting entirely of transports can be caputred). Then a wave of Red counter-attacks hit:
Second Battle of Votinsk: Budyenny tried to retake the Western Kama bank with 24.000 men but was repulsed by Gaida. The battle was surprisingly costly for the Siberians because Janin's small corps from Perm took over the fighting in the second round. If a corps and an army hq are on the field at the same time, the corps moves into combat first. In this particular case, Gaida entirely disengaged during the second half of the battle. While casualty rates had been 2:1 in favour of the Siberians while Gaida's powerful stack did the fighting now the ratio became reversed. Luckily Budyenny retreated before a third combat round. This was clearly my mistake. I should have left Gaida at Perm and sent Janin to Votinsk instead. I didn't because I wanted to profit from Gaida's better stats. This mistake will be swiftly rectified: Gaida and Janin will switch commands.
Second Battle of Sarapul: Next Ordzhonikizde attacked Pepeliaev at Sarapul. This might have been a desperate if belated attempt to save the Red fleet locked in the harbour. Or perhaps Ian thought he might take advantage of my troops being on assault posture? In any case, the Red forces were inadequate for the task and suffered badly: 6.200 Red conscripts died in vain. With 1.200 men Siberian casualties are relatively light. Kolchak is content (+ 2 NM).
Pepeliaev is now inactive, luckily Panov accompanies him and can take over his command (it really pays off to have multiple two stars in a stack). The supply situation is increasingly desperate: two more turns, then Panov's men will starve. It is time to retreat. If Parsky hadn't blown up the railway connection east, I would simply mount the trains and retreat my entire forces back east of the Kama. Unfortunately that is out of the question. It's a shame with some more supplies I could starve Parsky. Instead Panov will lead his troops north and join forces with Gaida (or rather Janin as of next turn) at Votinsk.
This is not without risks: Budyenny was only in command of a part of Shorin's troops. The total number is probably around 50.000 men. My 20.000 at Voltinsk will be hard-pressed to fight off an all-out attack. Hopefully they can hold the line until help arrives.
Moreover, Parsky might attack Perm. I am lacking intelligence on his strength but believe that he only has a small division. But the defenders at Perm were badly mauled in the latest Battle of Votinsk. This could be another hard fight. Level 4 entrenchment should help win it though.
Southern front: Here the supply situation is worst: Otani's army at Penza has supplies for only one more turn. Most of the other stacks can hold out for two.
Obviously supplying Otani is my main concerns. It is already too late to sent him back across the Ural. The next major supply stack is at Omsk; even by railway the journey would take two turns whereas Otani's men need fresh supplies by the end of this turn or they will begin to starve. These are some of my most experienced soldiers. They have conquered Samara, Saratov and Penza. One of the divisions even accompanied Kappel on his long march. They are the crème of the Siberian Army. Losing them is not an option.
Instead Otani will ask the Bolsheviks for some supplies. They wouldn't refuse hospitality to a bunch of hungry Siberians with a lot of guns, would they? The only Red supply depot within reach is Tambov, the railway line there has been secured by Siberian cavalry. A few Red reinforcements have arrived at the city last turn but they still number less than 200 pw. Otani will leave his smallest division behind to guard Penza. The other three are ordered to assault Tambov with a total of 950 pw. This attack must succeed or Otani's men are doomed. But unless the Red Army can send at least another 200 pw worth of troops to reinforce the city, I am fairly confident that Tambov will fall. Whether Otani's men will find a well stocked depot is an entirely different question though ...
Samoylo is still trapped inside Syzran with 900 pw worth of troops. Basically there are two possible options: assault the city or besiege it.
Assaulting a city with well entrenched defenders is usually extremely costly. Unless the odds are heavily stacked in favour of the attackers, the assault is likely to fail (3:1 may not be sufficient, I usually try to have at least 4:1 odds). Currently the Siberian forces outside the city number 110.000 men (~ 2.400 pw). Not quite enough. I could concentrate more forces at Syzran but this would take time and further strain my supply network. Therefore it is not really an option.
A long siege isn't appealing, either. The current siege force is too big for my limited supplies. If I reduce it to a bare minimum however, I may be able to sustain the siege. Consequently Dutov's force is divided in three parts: Dutov himself takes one division to Penza. Akutin retreats with 4 divisions behind the Ural (50.000 men less on the frontline should bring some relief). Kappel keeps 3 divisions and my only full supply train and continues the siege. Under his excellent command his force has still 1.300 pw. He has supplies for three more turns and two more supply trains are already on their way. This might just work.
Syzran is a level 2 city with a level 1 depot and a harbour. But as long as the city is under siege, it won't produce any new supplies. Neither will the harbour since the Volga is frozen again. Therefore Samoylo should run out of supplies in a few turns. He will face a choice between risking a sortie or surrender (once a besieged force has no more supply points in their supply trains, there is a chance it will capitulate).
Central Siberia: In the heart of Siberia, the Red Army starts with a powerful partisan army: 3 cavalry brigades (each with 5 elements), two partisans, some militias and a few supply trains. After some inconclusive maneuvering aimed at interrupting the Transsiberian Railway during the summer, Kravchenko has bunkered down at Barnaul where he has build a supply depot to sustain his troops.
This is the same strategy, I tried in our first game when I was controlling the Reds. The plan was rather imperfect, though. Supply production at Barnaul was only sufficient to sustain two of my three cavalry brigades. The third starved during the winter. Either Ian didn't realize this or he lacked better ideas. Anyways, his troops seem to be exactly in the same predicament.
With troops from the Western front returning east, there may be an opportunity here: Semenov will receive some reinforcements. His forces will assemble at Novonikolaievsk, the White city closest to Barnaul. Next turn he should be able to start offensive actions against Kravchenko.
In the meantime general Suzuki will retake Achinsk with his Japanese division.
Solving the supply crisis: In the hinterland, I am trying to spread out my divisions. For example, Sukhin is sending one of his two divisions back to Orenburg. Also, I am building 2 new depots and am upgrading two existing ones. In my Western provinces a series of reforms is initiated to raise loyalties (and thus supply prodcution). Supply trains are shifted around to hurry more food to the frontlines (since this costs me railway capacities, it isn't as effective as I would wish). Therefore, railway capacities will be increased and 8 new supply trains are raised.
Hopefully, the Siberian Army can somwhow hold on until spring brings some relief. It would be a small miracle if I could get it through the winter without major losses to starvation.
News from the Southern Whites: The pressure on the Southern Whites continues to be high but for now Durk holds on. Here is his estimate of the situation: "Ian is presenting a strong challenge on my front, but he is not in a position to defeat me. His and my forces are intermingled something ridiculous, it looks like a checker board where it is his unit, my unit, his unit, my unit. Winter may determine who is the biggest loser on the Southern White fronts, but I have adequate forces in safe places. Ian did make a spectacular surprise move to take the Northwest army base (Pskov). I lost some units under construction and the depot, but have an alternative base which is well supplied."