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Really like this AAR, glad to it's back.
 
Terraferma: Thank you! I'm glad you and others have liked the election update so much, because it did take an awful lot of work compared to an ordinary update. I also enjoy writing them a little more than writing an ordinary update. :)

Aldriq: You are exactly right! The figures for opinion polling are taken from the in-game electorate vote graph (found in the Population screen), and then distorted. Opinion polling distortion is determined by two factors: the newspaper's circulation and its impartiality. A regional paper such as the "Merchant's Daily" would base its findings on the figures of Fukuoka state, rather than the figures given for the electorate as a whole. A national paper would use the figures of the home islands only, while an Empire-wide paper would include the colonies as well. The differentiation between National and Empire-wide papers is not important at this point in time as (according to the AAR, not the game) the colonies cannot vote yet. Impartiality - as you might guess - affects how accurate a newspaper's report of opinion poll figures is likely to be. For example: a highly impartial paper would not "fudge" figures, and is more likely to publish figures closer to the exact findings than a more partial paper. A highly partial paper, like "the Constitutionalist", would almost definitely fudge figures in favour of its sponsored party (i.e. the Kensei-tou) and might have a margin of error as high as 20%. I leave it up to you readers to decide whether the opinion polls are accurate or not, and if not, how accurate.

Soulstrider: Welcome and thank you very much! it's always nice to receive comments from new readers!
 
The Election of 1850 (Results and Aftermath)


Polling Day:


On the 8th of November 1850, Japan's polling stations opened their doors for the first time. Both the Hoshu-tou and Jiyu-tou were confident of victory, while the close result predicted by the opinion polls left the minor parties feeling bullish and hopeful of holding the balance of power.

Shima Province (the smallest province in Honshu) was the first to declare, and offered absolutely no clue as to how well the Liberals would do. The Conservatives were narrowly beaten into third place by the Ou-tou, an embarrassing result for them.

shima1850.png

Shima, the first result declared. A tiny rural province with an economy dependant on fishing and aquaculture, Shima had a proud tradition of defiance against the Shogunal authorities. It was an easy win for the Democrats.

The liberal parties did very well in Kansai. The first urban seat to declare, Yamashiro (including Kyoto) fell to the Minshu-tou leader, Lord Kuroda. Fujiawara Masamichi put up a good fight for the Ou-tou, echoing the earlier result at Shima. The Hoshu-tou came an embarrassing third and the Jiyu-tou a humiliating fourth.

kyoto1850.png

Yamashiro echoed the Shima result, with the two major parties doing poorly plus the Constitutionalists and the CDP candidates losing their deposits.

Things were looking up for the Minshu-tou it seemed, but few Democrats would be celebrating following the string of results from Chukoku, Shikoku and Kyushu. The Minshu-tou victories would prove to be a false dawn as seat after seat fell to the Jiyu-tou or Hoshu-tou. The CDP picked up a few in Kyushu plus Tosa in Shikoku, while the Constitutionalists managed to steal a victory in Bizen, edging out the Conservatives by squeezing the Minshu-tou vote. The next major seat to declare was Hizen, seat of the Jiyu-tou leader Otomo Takeshi, and an Otomo seat in the Kizokuin since te days of Mitsunari. Takeshi would be returned with a thumping majority.

hizen1850.png

Otomo Takeshi was returned with a majority of around 30'000, the largest majority of any candidate at the 1850 General election. The CDP came a very distant second; they were doing far better in Kyushu and Shikoku than they were on the Honshu mainland.

The capital declared soon after, and was in some ways typical of many Jiyu-tou gains across the country. A bastion of Free Trade, this Conservative hope swung far towards the Left, as the Jiyu-tou won the seat with 56% of the vote.

Osaka1850.png

Hosokawa Shunsuke takes the capital with a 15'000 majority. Analysts and historians have often attributed the Hoshu-tou's poor performance to protectionism in the wake of the food riots.

Some good news for the Hoshu-tou, as the safest Conservative seat in the country in nearby Omi declared. As the home province of Ishida Mitsunari, Omi could always be expected to stick by the Hoshu-tou, and Otani Yoshinaga was returned with 93% of the vote, the largest majority by percentage of the total vote in the 1850 General election.

omi1850.png

In the Omi of the 1850's, the Jiyu-tou didn't stand a chance.

The grey clouds began to clear for the Hoshu-tou as more Kyushu results came in, in particular the CDP's strong showing in the north. Father Doi denied the Jiyu-tou a victory in his seat of Buzen, taking the seat with a majority of nearly 5'000.

buzen1850.png

Father Doi's majority would have undoubtedly been higher were it not for the intervention of the Conservative candidate. Nevertheless, Buzen was a seat the Conservatives were happy to lose.

The key to a Hoshu-tou victory now rested upon the rural east. Cheers went up at Conservative HQ as the scion of the Konishi family comfortably held the seat of Musashi (containing Edo) with just over 60% of the total vote.

Musashi1850.png

It has often been suggested that Lord Konishi's win in the mostly urban Musashi can be attributed solely to his (or his family's) personal vote. This was true of many Japanese constituencies of this era.

The Jiyu-tou had done fantastically well in the Chubu marginals west of Kansai, winning a crescent of seats stretching from Mino to Sagami, bordering Musashi. This was a bitter blow to Otani Yoshinaga's chances. Were he to have ny hope of stemming the Liberal tide, he would have to rely on the far north and the outlying islands, seats where fortunately, the Hoshu-tou could be expected to do well. One of the few seats in which they couldn't expect to do well, was the Uesugi domain of Echigo – held safely by the Kensei-tou leader.

echigo1850.png

Like the result at Musashi, the Kensei-tou victory in Echigo can largely be attributed to the personal vote of the Uesugi family.

As election night drew on it became clearer and clearer to the Conservatives that they could no longer win an outright majority. Hoshu-tou hopes now turned to taking enough seats to deny the Jiyu-tou an outright majority, and a loud cheer went up as Dewa and Mutsu South were held safely from the Ou-tou. The largest cheer was saved for West Hokkaido & Karafuto, the Ou-tou's best hope, as Mogami stole the seat with a wafer-thin majority of 324. Perhaps if Taijoku went Conservative, there would be hopes of a Hoshu-tou government after all?

westhokkaidoandkarafuto1850.png


It was not to be. Any doubts about the Jiyu-tou being the largest party were quashed as they won both Taihoku seats and Ezo, while Sado and the Okinawan islands could be relied upon to vote Conservative. Unfortunately for the Jiyu-tou, this meant that an overall majority for them was also out of a question. Japan's electorate had spoken, and a hung Kizokuin had been its answer.

1950election.png

Map of seats won at the 1850 General Election. Final Tally: Jiyu-tou (Liberal): 34 seats, Hoshu-tou (Conservative): 27 seats, Kensei-tou (Constitution): 5 seats, CDP: 4 seats, Minshu-tou (Democratic): 4 seats, Ou-tou (Royalist): 0 seats. 38 sears are needed for a majority.

popvote1850.png

Shares of the popular vote at the 1850 General Election: Hoshu-tou: (Conservative) 35.7%, Jiyu-tou: (Liberal) 34.9%, Kensei-tou: (Constitution) 9.3%, Minshu-tou: (Democratic) 9.2%, CDP: 9%, Ou-tou: (Royalists) 1.9%.

Coalition Talks:


As the both largest party and with enough seats to form a coalition with any party – save the Ou-tou, with whim they would never have formed a coalition with anyway – the Jiyu-tou were in pole position. Any coalition with the Kensei-tou would require an agreement on increasing the franchise, and the Liberals were not quite ready for that at this stage. The CDP and Hoshu-tou were less likely to accede to Takeshi's planned Press reform than the Minshu-tou, while the Minshu-tou favoured the Urban Representation Act, and had – an albeit far more radical draft of the bill – as a plank position in their manifesto. The choice was obvious.

Lords Otomo and Kuroda entered talks soon after the last seats were declared. Takeshi was very much negotiating from a position of strength, as he knew as well as anyone else that a Hoshu-tou led “grand coalition” was highly unlikely. Takeshi promised to enact Minshu-tou tax plans immediately upon taking office as an act of good faith, but refused to lower military or administration spending, or raise tariffs. Lord Kuroda had to accept this. The Minshu-tou promised to support Jiyu-tou Press reforms under the condition that the Liberals consider extending the franchise. Lord Otomo was equivocal, and refused to commit himself to giving the vote to the middle classes. The Democrats also pressed on including university seats in the Jiyu-tou's proposed Urban Representation Act. Takeshi, fearing that allowing University seats would be the equivalent of handing seats to the Democrats, refused, but did offer to extend the number of urban seats in line with the Democrats' proposals. Secularisation was not a topic Takeshi or the Liberals were even prepared to discuss.

Kuroda knew he was not in the best of bargaining positions, and acquiesced. After all, getting some Minshu-tou proposals through was still better than getting none at all. And so, Japan's first ever coalition government (Jiyu-Minshu-tou) was born.
 
Aw, man, that was pretty awesome. Love your attention to detail.

If I may ask, did you go through and do all the provinces yourself and just show us a few interesting ones, or did you just do those? I'm wondering since the tables have that % +/- column.
 
One thing that jumps out though: Would an "election night" really be feasible in this timeframe? They might have telegraphed the results I suppose, but it still seems vaguely "too fast". (even moreso in case they Japan doesen't have electric telegraphs yet but have to rely on semaphore)
 
I'm not sure I can trust any alt-history Kuroda, but this one seems an altogether nicer sort. A very good showing for the progressives, but let's see if they can actually make good on their policy pledges.
 
I wasn't expecting a hung parliament, but a coalition will definitely make things very interesting in the next four years... I presume with the current franchise you had to do some modding to get that level of liberal support at this point? I can't imagine vanilla wealthy pops voting so progressively so early.
 
Democracy in action, we'll have to see if the coalition manages to stand together without destroying itself.
 
Nice detailed entry, appreciated the effort put into these. The party I found interest in won :cool:
 
Apologies for the delay, you can blame Euro 2012 and Football Manager taking up much of my spare time these past weeks for that ;).

Sjiveru: No, doing that would be pointless busywork. :) I do have results for each province, but not precise numbers of votes: So for example, I know that Sado was a comfortable win for the Hoshu-tou (determined by the formula I use to determine seats, which is too complex to be mentioned here ;)) but I don't determine by how many votes the Hoshu-tou won, or the name of their victorious candidate as that would be pointless busywork. I record how safely each party won each seat (party initials plus edge (under 5000 majority), gain/hold (5-15000 majority) or solid (15000+ majority) in a notepad document.) and will determine the swing based on that. Important constituencies like Osaka, Hizen, etc. will probably feature in every election update, and those will have precise figures and an accurate swing.

Arliou: Election night updates are written like that for reasons of pace and suspense, not as an accurate reflection of how a 19th Century election would occur. They way I envisioned the proceedings would be that most of Honshu, Shikoku and Kyushu would declare on election night, while Hokkaido, Taiwan, and the smaller islands would declare the next day (those results would have to be delivered by ship, and might take three days to reach the mainland in some cases). These results would be relayed by telegraph to the major party HQs, where Election Night Balls would be hosted, complete with champagne, music and Japanese waiters with slicked-back hair wearing tails serving appetisers to industrialists and aristocrats dancing with eligible young ladies. Every now and then, some poor fellow would rush onto a stage, interrupt proceedings and announce x party has won/lost y seat, to be greeted by much cheering/booing from the crowd. The results would be printed the next day by the state newspaper. This isn't all too dissimilar to how election nights were run in Britain in the distant past.

Japan would most definitely have telegraph stations at this point in time, given that the telegraph was invented just after Japan westernised and that Japan has been westernised for some two decades. My rationale for this is that since Japan has a nationwide railway network in 1850 (and by CA's logic, you can't build railways without telegraph stations ;)) Japan would also have a nationwide telegraph network, but it would only be for civilian use, as the Army and Navy haven't learned to utilise the new technology for military purposes. (the same goes for the railway network.)

The one thing that is wildly ahistorical would be the opinion polling, which wouldn't exist for another 70 years or so (and certainly not without the Sociology tech.) - I call dramatic license on that.

Dewirix: Right now Kuroda is a junior partner in the Jiyu-Minshu coalition, and can therefore afford to be nice. :)

Aldriq: Actually I didn't! The Conservatives started off well ahead, but the election events were predominately economic ones, and I chose the free trade/L-F option each time. The Liberals won the most votes (the Merchant Daily polling figures are almost the same as the actual electorate vote), but due to the way Vicky handles coalitions I had to appoint them. One thing that may have been a factor is the large number of capitalists Japan/China seem to get once they westernise.

Estonianzulu: The Democrats aren't exactly in a position to destroy anything. Even if they withdraw support from the coalition the Liberals could still make a last-ditch deal with the Constitutionalists.

Danking: Ah, I remember you from my last AAR! Welcome aboard!

Terraferma: Thank you, I'm glad that attention to detail is appreciated! :)

Jape: Thank you, I shall!
 
Keeping Promises:


Domestic Developments


Japan's first ever elected government wasted no time in exercising its newly-granted powers and responsibilities. On the first session of the Kizokuin after polling day, taxes across the empire were cut by 10%, an early concession to the Democrats. It would be one of very few. For the first time in Japanese history, the average Japanese worker or peasant now earned more than he paid back in tax – a cutting blow to the Confucian orthodoxy which had governed Japan informally for the past 900 years. Their new-found “wealth” coupled with ready-avaliable, cheap foreign goods, led to a small consumer boom, as Japan's new industrial working and middle class began experimenting with western foods, products and customs. British and Italian-made suits, paired with bowlers (or top hats for the wealthy) became ubiquitous among Japan's growing middle class, who sipped on imported French and Portuguese wines and consumed exotic meats like chicken, turkey or quail at fashionable balls, where they practiced the newly fashionable art of ballroom dancing with eligible young Japanese ladies dressed to the nines in whale-boned corsets and hoopskirts. Western-style umbrellas and American-made pocket watches became must-have accessories for any young gentleman, while ladies experimented with rouge and other cosmetics. The urban and rural poor got in on the act too, heading en masse to the trading ports on their annual holidays to try the latest French and Italian sweets and to pose for that ultimate foreign novelty; a photograph. This was of course made possible by Japan's new and efficient railway network, which by 1851 had tracks and stations in every province in all four home islands. Passengers were ferried from island to island by sail-powered ships, fully furnished with such modern and foreign comforts as padded seats and portholes. Japanese of all walks of life flocked to these new-fangled modes of transportation in their tens of thousands.

Of course the biggest innovation of the age actually wasn't very innovative at all, in fact Japan had had one since the days of Ishida Hidetaka. The newspaper may have been an integral part of Japanese life for almost a century, but unless you were lucky enough to understand English there was only one, owned by the state and written by aristocrats for aristocrats. Things were about to change. In early 1851, the Jiyu-tou in concert with their Minshu-tou allies passed their first major piece of legislation; the Licensing of the Presses Act.

V2_6-2.jpg

Up and coming entrepreneurs wasted no time in buying up press licenses, first and foremost among them was none other than Otomo Takeshi himself. In an act which can only be described as sheer political patronage, the Jiyu-tou purchased the Nagasaki Merchant Daily for an undisclosed sum and awarded its previous owner an official honour. Rebranded the Japan Merchant Daily, the paper became the mouthpiece of Japanese Liberalism. A Japanese-language edition was produced, and sold in large numbers.

Takeshi didn't stop there though. He realised quickly that in order to compete with the Nihon Shimbun and its massive market share he'd have to create a paper that was radically different. Enter the Asahi Shimbun ; Japan (and arguably the world's) first tabloid newspaper[1]. The Asahi Shimbun was radically different from any newspaper seen in Japan before: for starters it was filled with big pictures instead of columns of text, pictures of geisha girls, kabuki actors and sumo wrestlers – the celebrities and sportsmen of their day. Its reporting didn't focus on parliamentary reports, the markets and prices or (God forbid...) actual news, but things that actual people might actually be interested in, like sport, scandals (real and invented, but more often than not, the latter) and of course, gossip. Even the text was revolutionary, using the Hiragana alphabet rather than the more highbrow kanji characters to save printing costs. The lower classes lapped the Asahi Shimbun up, and the paper sold so well and was so controversial that certain Japanese conservatives called for the Act to be banned, for “causing moral panic” and for “eroding our nation's moral fabric through promotion of gross immorality.” These conservatives quickly changed their tune when they realised that the could print their own tabloids and make a fortune doing so.

Political parties and groups quickly followed the Liberal example and formed their own party newspapers. (except the Constitutionalists, who of course already had one.) Apart from the Nihon Shimbun which was still state owned, Japan would have 15 national and regional newspapers by the end of 1951 owned by either private individuals or groups, with a total readership of over seven million, or slightly over half the Japanese adult population. Even today Japanese read more newspapers annually per capita and Japanese newspapers retain a higher circulation on average than anywhere else in the world.

1851: Japan's “Annus Mirabilis”


Since modernisation in the early days of Hidetoshi's reign, Japan had been “catching up” to the rest of the world in terms of science and technology. By 1851 Japan had not only caught up, but Japanese themselves were beginning to spearhead their own scientific initiatives, making discoveries which would make the academic communities of Europe and America green with envy.

Advances in chemotherapy were all well and good, but it was the discovery that Kinine (Quinine, a substance found in the bark of the South American Cinchona plant.) could be used to combat Malaria which really captured the world's imagination. The discovery was made by a Western-educated Japanese biologist named Ito Keisuke, who was part of a Japanese diplomatic mission to Peru, serving as the group's physician. Keisuke had heard about this ancient remedy from the ancient Quechua peoples, and being the inquisitive person he was, decided to investigate. He not only discovered and isolated the compound Kinine, but also discovered that, mixed with water and taken orally, could be used as a vaccine against malaria – not merely a killer disease but a major hindrance towards foreign colonisation and domination of Africa and Oceania.

itokeisuke.png

Ito Keisuke, discoverer of Quinine (Kinine)

Japan had good relations with Peru, and was therefore able to export the bark and produce Kinine in large numbers for a good profit. Jealous of Japanese success, the Dutch sent expeditions deep into Columbia to try and extract their own Cinchona seeds. The plan was to plant these seeds in plantations in Guyana and the East Indies and harvest their own “Kinine plants” thereby cornering the lucrative Quinine market and putting the Japanese and Peruvians out of business. The Colombians refused to sell the seeds and banned Dutch botanists from entering the country. Not willing to cause an international incident, King Willem II backed down and left the Japanese to their monopoly. His brother favoured an elaborate scheme whereby the Dutch would import large quantities of its prized liquor into Columbia, which would leave the Columbian economy dependant on Dutch imports, thereby allowing the Dutch to trade liquor for Cinchona. Such a scheme was far to brazen for a placid monarch like Willem II, and so it was never tried.

V2_25-1.jpg

But by far the most ambitious venture Japan launched during this time in the name of science was inspired by what was by far the most important Japanese "discovery" of the 19th Century: nationalism. Of course Japan - like pretty much all Great Powers throughout history - had embraced nationalism or a form of nationalism for most of their history, but this new nationalism was on a global rather than a regional scale. Japanese intellectuals foresaw a world in which a Japanese Race would play an integral, if not dominant role in world affairs. To be born a son of Yamato was to have drawn first prize in the lottery of life, to have been blessed by God even, said these intellectuals - it was therefore only natural that Japan's Asiatic neighbours bow to their superiors and except "enlightened" Japanese rule. Some even foresaw a Asian superstate, dominated by Japan and built upon the three pillars of Japanese society: The Shogun, Catholicism and Bushido - a true "Eastern Roman Empire" so to speak.

These ideas would bring dire consequences: to other Asians and especially to the Japanese people themselves, but that would be some ninety years into the future. For now, Nationalism and Imperialism was the dominant positive force in Japan's military, industrial, scientific and social developments. The most important of these - from an international, scholastic point of view - were Japanese excavations in Egypt. Egypt was long seen in the western world as the cradle of civilisation, and while obviously the Indians and Chinese (and therefore their descendants: Koreans and Japanese) knew better, proving this to a narrow-minded, some would say xenophobic Western intelligentsia without hard evidence was going to be very difficult. Japanese archaeologists hoped that by doing their own excavations in Egypt, they could not only dispel this myth, but simultaneously prove their own worth as trailblazers in the fields of archaeology and science.

V2_13-2.jpg

Fuelled by feelings of divine right and what the Americans would call "Manifest Destiny" (and perhaps, more than a little Russophobia) the Japanese government authorised the settlement of the Kuril Archipelago. These islands had little economic or strategic value, and their colonisation served only to antagonise the Russians. Nevertheless, their colonisation was a real "PR coup" for Takeshi, who proved that the colonisation of useless islands was no longer a solely European pastime.

V2_6-3.jpg

Japan's “Annus Mirabilis” would abruptly end on November the 16th 1851, the day the Shogunate's peace treaty with the Kingdom of Siam expired. In times of war, such lofty pursuits would have to be put aside as war and patriotism take centre stage. As Kampaku, Otomo Takeshi would no longer serve as a frontline general as he had in previous colonial wars, but he would still have one final important role to play in determining the outcome of the upcoming campaign...

V2_15-1.jpg


Note:


[1] The real life Asahi Shimbun is a broadsheet.
 
awwww yeah

No, doing that would be pointless busywork. I do have results for each province, but not precise numbers of votes: So for example, I know that Sado was a comfortable win for the Hoshu-tou (determined by the formula I use to determine seats, which is too complex to be mentioned here ) but I don't determine by how many votes the Hoshu-tou won, or the name of their victorious candidate as that would be pointless busywork. I record how safely each party won each seat (party initials plus edge (under 5000 majority), gain/hold (5-15000 majority) or solid (15000+ majority) in a notepad document.) and will determine the swing based on that. Important constituencies like Osaka, Hizen, etc. will probably feature in every election update, and those will have precise figures and an accurate swing.
Yeah, it would be a lot of work. What you have is still beyond awesome.
I'd be curious what the formula is, if you don't mind (for no reason other than simple curiosity :p)

I can just imagine Japanese aristocrats trying to straddle the line between tradition and the West by wearing tophats with their hakamas ^_^
I do hope Japanese culture doesn't get bleached as horribly by the West as it did historically, but since most of that was after WWII anyway I'm not too worried.

using the Hiragana alphabet rather than the more highbrow kanji characters to save printing costs
When you're used to reading with kanji, long strings of kana are really unpleasant to read (even with spacing); but I can see how such a paper would attract a less literate audience (and be -way- easier to print), and once you're used to reading spaced kana instead of kanji I'm sure it's just fine. I can also imagine the paper getting a -lot- of derision from the upper class :p
You might even want to write yourself a little education efficiency modifier if the whole country switches to kana-only ^_^

who proved that the colonisation of useless islands was no longer a solely European pastime.
Well-put ^_^
 
As always a well written update.:)