The Birth and Rise of the Ishida Shogunate: Volumes 1 and 2 - An A-H Japan AAR

No this isn't another update unfortunately, and although I've played through the next update it may be sometime before I find the time to write it up. I've had to write up an essay (In Chinese, so I can't just waltz through them like I might if it were an English essay) and have another due within the next week. Hopefully this census "update" will tide you all over until then.

Scholar: To be honest I don't think I'm a good player at all, especially as far as generalship is concerned! I just don't enjoy the military side of things as much as others seem to do. That being said, even in vanilla annexing Korea is easy once you know what you're doing. The trick is of course, you have to know what you're doing.

Aldriq: I'd say the "primitive" concept of demanding hostages is most unfitting for a Great Power, no? Suffice to say it would be suicide for Japan to take on Russia without at the very least westernising first.

One of Hidetoshi's most ingenious new policies was the introduction of an Empire-wide population census, to be held every 10 years and filled out by all adults regardless of age or ethnicity. The results were collected and compiled by the "Japanese Census and Statistics Bureau" - better known as a front for the Shinsengumi. The census gave Japan's rulers a unique insight into the nature of the people they ruled: where they worked, what they earned, which deity they worshiped, where they stood politically, and so on.

The total number of people ruled by the Ishida Shogunate in 1838 was roughly 46 Million, of which we can determine based on the census figures around 34.3 Million were ethnically Japanese. Minus women and children, the number of adult males is estimated at 11.8 Million, of which around 8.6 million were ethnically Japanese. The Koreans were the largest "ethnic minority" in the Shogunate proper at 20.7% of the total population, followed by the "Taihokunese" (at around 4%) and the Chinese expatriate community (at 1.5%). Dutch expatriates made up around 0.2% and the Ainu less than 0.1%.


Perhaps worryingly from the point of view of the Shogun, only 35.5% of his subjects were Christians, compared with 59.1% Buddhists (including the entire Korean population). If we were to further divide Mahayana Buddhism into it's respective schools (denominations), then a different picture emerges.


So while Catholicism had more adherents than any other religion in Japan, there were more Mahayana Buddhists than Christians. Japan's native religion, Shinto, had been hit hard by its separation from Buddhism and was steadily on the decline while Protestantism remained the domain of Dutch expatriates and only a very small number of Japanese.


Japanese Aristocrats were mostly Catholic and conservative, over 67% adhered to the state religion, no doubt due to the proselytising of the Otomo and Konishi families. Members of the Korean aristocracy granted lands and peerages after the occupation, like the vast majority of their countrymen, were staunch follower of Mahayana Buddhism and helped to raise the Buddhist total to 44.5%.


Like the Aristocrats, Japanese artisans were primarily Catholic and Korean artists Buddhist. If the latter were removed from the equation the proportion of Buddhists and Catholics would be roughly even. Politically speaking, the artisans were both the most reactionary and second least conservative of all professions.


Japanese bureaucrats were almost entirely Catholic, with only 7.5% not adhering to Catholicism. Bureaucrats made up the largest proportion of both Dutchmen and Protestants, by no means a coincidence. As one might expect from the loyal middle class, only 0.4% of bureaucrats identified as reactionary.


The Clergy were the only profession in which the majority did not identify as conservative, an overwhelming 92.5% identifying as Liberal. Most of the clergy were Japanese and Catholic, with almost 5% being foreign Protestant missionaries, mostly Dutch. Perhaps best illustrating the decline of Japan's traditional religion, only a piddling 1.7 percent of all clergymen were Shinto priests.


Typically one of the most conservative of professions, the Shogunate's farmers and peasants were mostly conservative and Buddhist. Even removing Koreans and Taihokuans from the equation Japanese Buddhists would still be in the majority by about 13%. Fitting into this conservative pattern, farmers also made up the largest contingent of Shintoists.


More than any other profession, the labourers were the most affected by the annexation of Korea. Due to the many and prosperous coal mines in that country, Koreans made up over a third of the total number of labourers in the Empire. Due to the large number of Korean labourers, labourers made up the highest proportion of Buddhist adherents of any profession.


Like the aristocrats of whom they were mostly composed, the Shogunate's officer corps were almost evenly split between Catholics and Buddhists, with the Koreans helping to tip the scales in favour of the Buddhists. Unlike the soldiers they led, the Officers had a fair share of Liberals in its ranks, around 14.5 percent.


Like soldiers everywhere the Empire's soldiers weren't too liberal, but they had taken to Catholicism with gusto, soldiers having a larger proportion of Catholics than any other profession. The low number of Korean soldiers also helped maintain the high Catholics to Buddhist ratio.

My apologies everyone for the delay, AHD has helped exasperate it. I'm just writing to let you guys know I haven't forgotten about this AAR, and that there should be an update finished (quite a big one actually) within 24 hours. Thank you all for your comments, I'll be sure to answer your questions just before I post the next update (I really need to get some sleep right now, sorry). Thank you all for your patience.

Thanks everyone for your patience, I hope this update is well worth the wait. I'd also like to thank before I forget everyone who voted for this AAR during the last ACA session: the fact I didn't win is irrelevant, its the gesture that counts.

Thanks also to all those here who actually bothered to vote for more than one AAR. It's awards like these which help keep us writers going!

MorningSIDEr: Unfortunately nobody caught the hint. Very early on I dropped a clue as to the role in Shinto in modern Japan: A picture of "Osaka's busiest Shinto Shrine" with only about seven worshipers inside! The simple fact is the separation of Buddhism and Shinto has hit the old religion hard, and a good deal of people who practice Shinto rituals have chosen to identify as Buddhists rather than Shintoists. You see, when Buddhism was first introduced to Japan some 1300 years ago, the Buddhist missionaries incorporated Shinto deities into Buddhism as a way of better propagating Buddhism in Japan (the western equivalent would be making Greek and Roman deities saints in Roman Catholicism) and so generations of Japanese "Shintoists" grew up believing that the kami were minor deities compared to the cosmic Buddha and hence chosen the "major" deity to the "minor" one.

Nikolai: I'm glad you think so. I spent much of my childhood on inventing semi-plausible alternate histories and speculating the outcomes, and a Catholic Japan was one of my favourites. In that sense, you could almost say this AAR has been almost a decade in the making!

Scholar: We shall see if you change your tune once I get involved in a real war, If I get involved in a real war that is.

Aldriq: Right now roughly 0.90% of Korea is Catholic, and roughly 0.90% of POPs living in Korea are Japanese. Coincidence? I think not. I'm sure a few "Koreans" will convert to Catholicism of their own free will but I'm somewhat resigned to a Buddhist Korea, so to answer your question no I won't be modding in any Korean Christians.

The fears of the anti-Seikanron faction ultimately proved to be unfounded; the Qing did not not intervene in the war with Korea, nor did the war decelerate the process of industrialisation. That being said though, the prospect of a war with the Qing now that the Shogunate shared a border with Manchuria remained more than a likely possibility, or so some of the daimyo thought.

Unbeknownst to these daimyo, we now know that many of the Chinese nobles actually had similar fears about Japan. Chinese Reformists were jealous of the Shogunate's foreign connections, and feared that a foreign European power, such as the French or British, might intervene. Most Chinese feared no country, European or otherwise, yet felt that it was absurd, even demeaning, that China should fight a war over another country; the notion of a proxy war was utterly foreign to them. Thirdly, China's "navy" was practically non-existent so even if China wanted to fight a war against the Shogunate, its inability to take that war to the Home islands would undoubtedly result in a continuation of Hideyoshi's Korean campaigns - a war of attrition in a foreign land.

Furthermore, both nations had one common interest: the containment of Russia. Unlike Japan, China actually shared a land border with the Bear, and quite an extensive one at that. If China could use an alliance against Russia as an excuse, it's diplomats theorised, the Qing could kill two birds with one stone: Peace with Japan and the containment of the Russians. This rationale was spearheaded by a young Chinese diplomat, Li Hongzhang. Naturally the Shogunate was more than happy with the terms, but Hidetoshi, ever the shrewd diplomat, held his cards close to his chest. He agreed to the terms, and invited Li Hongzhang to Osaka for the signing of the alliance treaty. At the last minute, Hidetoshi advised his Gaikoku Bugyo (Lord Konishi) to add in an extra clause which reduced Japan's obligation to aid China only in the event China declared war on Russia, in effect making the whole treaty worth less than the paper it was written on. Hongzhang failed to notice the change and signed the treaty, blissfully unaware of the damage it would do to his career in the near future.


The Treaty of Osaka gave both China and Japan the peace of mind to focus their efforts elsewhere, though both nations retained large contingent of troops on the Manchuria-Korea border "just in case". Japan turned it's attention to philosophical pursuits, importing the latest Post-Enlightenment philosophical texts and treatises and having them translated into Japanese.


Hidetoshi's lifelong ambition had finally been achieved; Japan was now a modern and civilised nation. His subjects began to wear suits and top hats and adopt western customs while factories were constructed and horse-drawn stagecoaches criss-crossed the country[2].Japan nevertheless retained many of its traditions: kenjutsu was widely practiced while kabuki and noh dramas were still widely popular. In the spirit of his great ancestor Mitsunari, Hidetoshi abolished the last vestiges of the Feudal system and reformed the aristocracy on European lines: out went the Samurai and Daimyo, in came Knights and Lords.

In a now famous address to the Kizokuin on the 3rd of March 1841, the Shogun himself best summed up the new direction the nation was taking, indeed the direction he had drove it to.

"It is my most ardent wish that our people shall continue to take great strides on the golden path to progress and liberty, and away from that black road to serfdom they have been forced to tread on for so very long"

Japan was beginning to move; Yamato had awakened.



Ishida Hidetoshi was not content to rely solely on private enterprise to industralise the Shogunate. With the help of advisors from Britain, France and The Netherlands, plans for a massive state industrial sector were drawn up and incentives were made available to convince thousands of young men to leave their farms and mines for jobs in the factories.


The treachery of the Ainu peoples of Sakhalin in supporting Date Munenari had not been forgotten. Convicts and settlers were sent to the island of Sakhalin to "pacify" the traitorous Ainu and make something of that barren island while they were there. The fact that the Russians had a claim on the island made the Japanese may have also had something to do with Hidetoshi wanting to maintain a presence there.


Japan focused much of its efforts in establishing friendly relations with the other Great and Secondary powers of the day, establishing embassies and dispatching ambassadors to each of the great houses of Europe and the Republics of the Americas. Foreign policy was focused on maintaining especially strong relations with Britain, France and the Netherlands, the latter was considered particularly important after it attempted to expand its East Indian holdings by annexing the Sultanate of Johore.


The Shogunate's diplomatic policies began to bear fruit, and within six months of the "westernisation proclamation" the Ishida Shogunate was formally considered to be a Great Power by its peers.



While Japan used it's truce with China to focus domestically and achieve a "place among nations" China prepared for war: raising men, drilling them, arming them. The Emperor flexed his military muscle by personally leading a successful expedition to annex Srinagar from the neighbouring Sikh Empire in Punjab. For all the Emperor's military successes China was not well, the British Opium Trade having already robbed roughly one quarter of the male Chinese population of their heath and livelihoods, and that number was rising daily.

It is true that China benefited financially from the opium trade, at least initially, but the rising social costs were becoming too much for the state to bear. The Daoguang Emperor was far from a benevolent or sympathetic ruler, yet even he was concerned by the effects of this foreign drug, and appointed the incorruptible mandarin Lin Zexu as Viceroy of Guangzhou[3] with the task of stamping out the illicit trade (non-medicinal usage of opium was technically outlawed in 1729) once and for all.

This wasn't the first time the Qing court tried to crack down on the opium trade, it was however the first serious attempt. Previous Viceroys had been easily swayed by the lure of British coin and the Court in Beijing had been more than content to look the other way, such was the culture of corruption in 1830's China. The British merchants assumed that the new Viceroy would be just as corruptible as his predecessors; they were to be sorely mistaken.

Lin Zexu was not only "untouchable", he pursued his orders with an almost religious fervour, cracking down on not only the distribution of opium, but it's users and distributors. Crates full of the drug were seized and burned without compensation to it's sellers, who were fined and even imprisoned in some cases. Those who tried to bribe their way out faced even more heinous punishments, like public beatings[4].


To Britons back home, Lin Zexu's actions were seen as an "attack on Free Trade" and an "affront to British sovereignty". British merchants who had their opium confiscated demanded compensation from the British government; the then Prime Minister Lord Melbourne refused to pay. The "Chinese Crisis" was a further blow to Melbourne, who was still reeling from the so-called "Bedchamber Crisis" of two years prior, and with an election in six months time this was the last thing he and his Whig government needed.

On the other side of the Commons, the "Chinese Crisis" was exactly what the Opposition needed. Free Trade was typically seen as the domain of the Whigs as opposed to the protectionism of the Tories, and had they been led by a protectionist, the opposition would most likely not have been able to exploit the crisis so effectively. Unfortunately for the Whigs however the then leader of the Conservatives, Robert Peel, was an avowed Free Trader who relished the chance to take the Free Trade fight to the Whigs, attacking their strength. Peel accused Melbourne of "abandoning Free Trade in favour of Chinese interests" and announced that "The Tories were now the party of Free Trade". Peel promised to secure British mercantile interests in China "through the barrel of a cannon if necessary". In other words, to declare war on China in the name of freedom of trade.

Many Whigs, the hawkish Foreign Secretary Lord Palmerston foremost among them, believed that war with China was the only legitimate solution to the "Chinese Crisis". but Lord Melbourne was reluctant. If he had given to the demands of Palmerston and the "war faction" he would have been seen as parroting the Conservatives, something the man was not prepared to do. Though it was unlikely to make that much of a difference, critics blamed Melbourne's stubbornness for costing the Whigs the election.

The 1841 General Election turned out to be a landslide victory for Peel and the Conservatives, who won 53 seats on a 9% swing. To make matters worse for Lord Melbourne and the Whigs the newly formed Irish Repeal party took 20 of the party's Irish seats, raising the total of seats lost to 73. Peel now had a mandate for war with the Qing, which was formally declared on the 10th of October 1841, about a month after the election.

Emperor Daoguang was outraged, and though he naturally thought that aid from the Ishida Shogunate - or indeed any other nation - was not necessary word was naturally dispatched to "the Heavenly Emperor's natural dependents and vassals" i.e. the Ishida Shogunate. Hidetoshi had no intention of entering "a lost war against a good friend" and respectfully declined, on the grounds that the Treaty of Osaka did not oblige Japan to take part in such a war. The Chinese were incensed, and on order of the Emperor the Treaty of Osaka was torn up.


Everybody expected the British to trounce the Chinese - Britain being the leading power in the world at the time - and while the Royal Navy scored many victories against what then constituted as the Chinese "navy", the army was less successful. In fact much to the world's surprise, China won many victories against the better-equipped and better trained British Army in the mountains and deserts of Punjab. Britian eventually succeeded in occupying Srinagar, but the cost in terms of men was astronomical; over 42'000 British dead and another 13'000 wounded, as opposed to 72'000 Chinese. Of the two nations China, with it's larger manpower pool and autocratic state fighting a defensive war was better equipped to fight a war of attrition than a liberal democracy fighting a war of aggression. The tides of public opinion quickly reversed against Peel, who was forced to seek a face-saving settlement with the Chinese. Under the terms of the peace treaty, Srinagar (which the Chinese didn't really care about in the first place) would be ceded to Britain in exchange for the outlawing of the Opium trade and the right for British nationals to be tried in Chinese courts under Chinese law. Britons were still allowed to trade in Guangzhou, but were subject to a special "Britain only" tariff which made said trade almost unprofitable. Peel tried to present the war as a victory, and technically it was, however Peel ultimately failed to do what he set out to, namely to defend British mercantile interests. In fact, he hurt these interests rather than defend them. The Qing on the other hand lost a colony, but succeeded in what they set out to do, namely to end the Opium trade and could therefore be awarded a moral victory.

As a final epilogue to the Opium War, Peel's failure to defend free trade led to a loss of support for the conservatives from the middle class, who overwhelmingly switched back to the Whigs at the next election. The free trade wing of the conservative party was permanently discredited by the war, leading to protectionism being readopted as party policy, the isolation of the free traders, Peel in particular and ultimately the secession of said free traders to form the so-called Peelite Party. Lord Melbourne's decision not to push for war was vindicated, while the careers of those in the "pro war" faction like Lord Palmerston suffered a temporary setback.



The British weren't the only European nation to suffer a setback in Asia; The Dutch had been at war with the Sultanate of Johor for almost two years, and failed to even do so much as gain a foothold on the Malay peninsula[5]. Back in Osaka Hidetoshi watched the Dutch debacle with great interest. At the time there was growing demand amongst Japanese for the Shogunate to expand and found colonies of its own, to "find it's own place in the sun" as it were. Many felt that with its abundant precious metals Johor would make an ideal colony, not to mention a foothold for Japan to expand from into Indochina. Hidetoshi and the Hollandophiles in the Kizokuin (of whom it must be said, were quite numerous) were very reluctant to do anything which may antagonise The Netherlands, but after two years of "phoney war" Hidetoshi felt that Malaya was ripe for Japan's taking.


The Dutch did raise objections, but these were few and far between. In fact, Dutch Expatriates in Batavia even sent a letter of thanks to the Shogun for "acting in the King's defence" after Malay troops besieged the Dutch-held island of Riau[6]. Using tactics similar to those used against the Ikko, the Japanese navy blockaded the strait between Riau and the Malay peninsula, trapping the Malay invasion force (which foolishly consisted of the sultanate's entire army) on the island, leaving Malaya proper undefended. The Japanese occupation was a walkover.


Now that the Ishida Shogunate shared a border with the British and Dutch Colonial Empires diplomatic efforts were made to reassure the British and dutch governments that Japanese intentions towards them were nothing but peaceful. Around the same time as the annexation of Malaya, Japan's old enemy, Russia, began to get colonial designs of its own, launching an invasion of Kars, in the Ottoman Empire. France rushed to the Turk's defence, but lacked the financial means to fight a prolonged war so soon after Napoleon III's coup d'etat[7]. Japanese bankers were more than happy to oblige, providing crucial funding to the French war effort.


The Japanese gesture was much appreciated by the French, and a general warming of relations - an "Entente Cordial" if you will - occurred between the two countries at this time. Young Japanese artists and philosophers were given grants by the Shogunate to study in Paris, who on their return home brought back the latest cultural trends back to the mother country


Technological advances weren't restricted to the cultural sphere, but cultural advances remained the Shogun's top priority. As soon as the steel and mining industries were introduced in early 1843[8] Hidetoshi steered the academic community's attention towards political philosophy, perhaps the most practical school of philosophy as far as the state is concerned. By introducing contemporary European political ideologies and encouraging debates on these issues, Hidetoshi hoped to be seen as a Liberal, progressive ruler - an Enlightened Despot if you will.
In doing so however he opened a Pandora's box: ideas which would have seemed foreign and totally and utterly incomprehensible to the Japanese people a year earlier - such as democracy, republicanism and secularisation - began to gain traction amongst the Japanese people. A Chartist movement known as the Constitutionalists (or Kensei-tou), not too dissimilar to that which existed in Britain and other European countries, was established in February and it's membership numbers exploded almost overnight; with over one million members by the end of the year.


It would take more than Constitutionalists to deter Hidetoshi from his Imperial designs though. Ever since Britain's first invasion of Burma back in 1826, the British crown had exerted it's influence on the neighbouring Kingdom of Siam. Now that they had a Napoleon back on the throne the French too began to flex it's diplomatic muscles once more, L'Empereur taking a particular interest in Mexico and Indochina. Japan could never hope to unseat British influence in Siam like the French could, Hidetoshi knew that, but Hidetoshi could match his French counterpart in audacity, and do something no European power would have (at the time at least) dared to do; annex the Kingdom of Siam outright. In September Hidetoshi authorised the invasion of Siam; plans were drawn up and Japanese troops were deployed to the Siam-Malaya border. A formal declaration of war was posted to Bangkok on the 4th of November 1843.


The First Japanese Conquest of Siam would prove to be far less of a walkover than the annexation of Malaya, as the brilliant Siamese High Command was intelligent enough not to send all their troops into foreign territory. The Siamese army was large, well staffed and well led, but poorly equipped with outdated arms. Only one in ten soldiers had a flintlock musket; the rest had to make do with traditional weapons like spears, sabres and bows. The Japanese troops, with their superior discipline and muzzle-loaded rifles were able to inflict heavy casualties on the Siamese at Alor Setar and Ratchaburi. Unfortunately the Siamese put up a valiant fight at the first battle of Ratchaburi, causing enough casualties to "soften up" the Japanese forces. The Siamese rallied, and drove out the Japanese at the second battle of Ratchaburi, the first and only Japanese defeat of the war.


The setback at Ratchaburi spurned the Shogunate's forces to greater efforts, and by April 1844 all of southern Pattani was under firm Japanese control. By June, the Japanese were knocking on Bangkok's door and well on the way to occupying all of central Siam.


Back on the home front, life continued as per usual. "Sakhalin" became Japan's first colony in July, while Japanese philosophers and thinkers finished their studies into Ideological thought in late November. Hidetoshi began to sympathise with some of the demands of the Constitutionalists and commissioned Japan's brightest philosophers, lawmakers and thinkers to study the role of the State and Government of the great nations of Europe.


The Siamese continued to put up a decent fight but after their crushing defeat at Lopburi the Royal Siamese Army was forced into the jungles. They no longer had the manpower to engage in open warfare like at Ratchaburi and were forced to rely increasingly on raids and guerrilla tactics. This proved a nuisance for the Japanese, but like a mosquito biting a lion, nothing more than a nuisance. Ever conscious of his nation's standing in the eyes of it's peers, Hidetoshi decided not to annex Siam all in one go, instead emulating the British in nearby Burma and annexing only part of it. The rest could wait, there was plenty of time.



[1] I didn't show the Westernisation decision because I was too lazy to edit the localisation, and a Meiji Restoration at this point in the AAR would be most inappropriate!

[2] An old Buddhist edict actually banned the use of wheels for any non-religious usage (including transport) until it was repealed in the 19th Century. To get around in Feudal Japan you either walked, rode in a palanquin carried by people who walked or on occasion rode a horse.

[3] At the time Guangzhou was the only city in China in which trade between Chinese and foreigners was permitted, excepting Portuguese Macau of course.

[4] A fairly run-of-the-mill punishment in Chinese law of this period.

[5] I simply cannot stress the incompetence of the Dutch AI. They were at war with Johor for two years and didn't even stage an amphibious landing once! What is this, Empire: Total War?!

[6] Just to clarify, Riau can actually refer to both a province on Java and an archipelago in between Indonesia and Singapore. Yes that's right, the Dutch were actually losing this war before I "intervened".

[7] In our timeline Napoleon III's coup didn't happen until 1851; I've moved it back a decade for story reasons.

[8] Actually I didn't finish researching Mechanised Mining until August, but I felt that the "Age of Liberalism" event chain makes more sense story wise if it happens while Japan is researching ideological Thought, rather than before.

Apologies about the images everyone, everything's fixed now though.

King: The Dutch simply can't get a break in Vicky II unless they're played by a human. I doubt that part of India is an oil-producing area but even so, it won't be discovered until long after Peel's death. A little too late to salvage his career methinks.

MorningSIDEr: I was surprised too, at first I thought China had actually won a white peace! (I really should pay more attention to countries other than the one I'm playing) that's why I wrote it in as a Chinese "Moral Victory". I'm planning on snatching the Kurills once I get Medicine, and the Russians have a core there too.

Sjiveru: Nope, just story.

Derahan: Why thank you.

Nikolai: Photobucket can be a greedy pain sometimes, it shan't happen again.

aldriq said:

Off to a very good start, it'll be interesting to see your first confrontation with the Russian bear. Siam can definitely wait now you have plenty of border and friendly relations with the British (although there is a risk that the UK will take the Thati-Malay isthmus, leaving you a bit disconnected).

Click to expand...

I'm very concerned about the British seizing Pattani (unfortunately that's where Bangkok is, so I couldn't take it the first time) but fortunately they've been busy elsewhere (Brasil, since you ask) and haven't bothered to take it. (they are trying to sphere Siam though, which is a bit of a concern)

Japan was a nation where much unlike their rowdy European and American fellows, patience, respect and loyalty to one's betters was ever present among those from all walks of life and economic and social backgrounds. This patience, respect and loyalty to one's government and Shogun even extended to the members of the radical fringe, the Constitutionalists, who gladly agreed to suppress their activities while the Shogunate was at war. Once peace beckoned the gloves were off, and curiously it was the establishment who fired the first "shots" in this political war. Father Doi Tatsuro, a Catholic Priest and Conservative academic was alarmed by what he saw as the "unchristian" tendencies of some in the Constitutionalist movement. He feared, perhaps rightly, that the Constitutionalists were taking too much of a cue from the French Revolutionaries and to doubt wrongly, that they would thusly display certain Jacobin tendencies like republicanism, public executions or propagate pseudo-atheistic cults. Father Doi penned a widely disseminated tract denouncing the Kensei-tou and it's (perceived) Jacobin policies. Republicanism is about as politically incorrect as you can get in Japan even today, let alone in the 1840's, and was a charge not to be made lightly.


Radical Japanese students educated both at home and abroad reacted badly to Father Doi's pamphlet. Some of those who had studied abroad had seen the coming "Springtime" first hand in Europe sympathised with the demands of their European brethren for liberalism and democracy, and began to found "Liberal clubs" in their respective educational institutions. These clubs began to work their way home, and soon every self-respecting Japanese University had a "Liberal Club" or "Liberal Union" of some sort on campus.


This was but a taste of what was to come in 1848, the year of revolutions in Europe and the year of Liberal awakening in the Ishida Shogunate. Though by far less bloody than the contemporary upheavals in Europe, the "Japanese Spring" was nonetheless the bloodiest conflict the Home islands had experienced since the Civil War. The (technically illegal) Constitutionalists organised marches and demonstrations in favour of democracy and the end of the suppression of all political organisations including their own. Marches turned to riots, as demonstrators clashed with Shinsengumi in most of the major cities.


The biggest difference between the Japanese and European "Springs" was that in Japan constitutional change was already on the way before the uprising. Hidetoshi's inquiry into constitutional change had been completed in August 1846 and above all, stressed moderation. The main message was that anything but gradual change would either result in chaos, or even worse, the erosion of traditional Japanese values (how this would happen was mysteriously absent in the report's analysis). The report recommended that political representation should be allowed to "trickle down" from the top to the bottom (ie. from the upper to the peasants and working classes) to ensure maximum stability. The foundation of political organisations such as parties or pressure groups would naturally interfere with the trickle down process and hence why the main point of contention between Constitutionalist agitators and the establishment was the right for individuals to form and organise political organisations.


Others have pointed out that the unique fabric of Japanese society helped to cushion the effects of the Japanese Spring. Civil Disobedience wasn't just unusual, it was looked down upon, while honour, obedience and loyalty to one's lord, Shogun and Emperor were paramount virtues. A third group of historians believe that any serious civil disorder would have opened the door to a Russian invasion, much as how the Danish Spring led to the partitions of Danish territory between Prussia and The Netherlands. It was well known that Russia had designs on Japan - most countries did - but Russia was a particular worry given they actually claimed Karafuto for their own. To make matters worse, Russia had shown recent initiative in claiming Asian territory. The recent Convention of Beijing awarded the Russians much of north-west Manchuria centring around the town-city of Halshenwei, renamed Vladivostok by the Russian overlords.


The threat of a Russian invasion was a very real one, and Hidetoshi knew it. Japan had risen in stature since the young Shogun came to power and could now unlike then afford to buy military equipment en masse from Europe. A large military buildup was initiated, and by the end of 1849 the Shogunate possessed thirteen modern infantry divisions and four Cavalry brigades[1], or about a quarter of Japan's total manpower pool[2]. The old irregular troops used in the Civil War and the invasions of Korea, Malaya and Siam were either retrained into professionally trained and armed divisions or disbanded. The army - as most befitting the sons of samurai - remained staunchly loyal to the Shogunate during the Japanese Spring. This was the third factor in taming the Japanese Spring: a cross-society desire to maintain national unity coupled with a loyal standing army and secret police to "implement" said desire.

This desire for national unity may have also worked in the Constitutionalists favour. Contrary to the report's recommendations, chaos had occurred, and it was because of the lack of political organisations rather than because of political organisations. The Shogun, being the progressive young ruler he was, saw no reason to uphold the banning of political parties when it would be in the interest of national security to revoke it. Nevertheless Hidetoshi believed in gradual reform, and only acquiesced to the reform if political organisations required the personal approval of the Shogun in order to organise and propagate. The Constitutionalists were prepared to accept, provided that the Shogun was prepared to assent to their legalisation, which he did. An amicable agreement was thus reached, and the Legalisation of Political Parties Act was signed into law on the 11th of March, 1849.


Their demands met, the demonstrators returned to their valleys and homes to continue the fight for democracy through other, more peaceful means. By August most of the protests had finished; it was fair to say that the Japanese Spring was finally over.



The Japanese Spring may have been the main event of the last years of the 1840's but it wouldn't be right to give the impression that it was the only development. Japan made great strides in technological research: most notably in the civilian fields of Chemistry and Medicine and the military fields of Naval and Army doctrines[3]. By far the most important discovery was however a field in which Japan would dominate forever after, railways.


It was also during the late 1840's that the Colonial Provinces Act was passed, giving those Japanese who lived abroad in the colonies the same rights as those who lived in the Home Islands ("separate, yet equal" to use the parlance of later years). Malaya was the first province to be accorded this right (in August 1846), followed by two of the three Siamese territories Japan captured after the war with Siam (both on the 1st of January 1850).


In Diplomacy, Japan continued to boost its relations with Britain, France, Portugal and The Netherlands. The Kizokuin sighed in collective relief when the Dutch King Willem II agreed to sign the Treaty of London, officially recognising the state of Belgium's right to exist. This was followed by an Anglo-Dutch entente, cemented by an alliance between the two nations. More worryingly for Japan, The Tsar entered into an alliance with the jilted Chinese, who in turn entered into a three-way pact with Burma and the remnants of the Kingdom of Siam. Hidetoshi reacted to these developments by levying an extra two divisions in Korea and transporting a further four from the mainland to the Korean-Chinese border, raising the total number of Shogunate troops in the colony to 90'000. It now seemed only a matter of time for a state of war to be declared between the Ishida Shogunate and the Qing Empire - and possibly Russia too.



Things were finally beginning to return to normal after the riots of the Summer when yet another crisis threatened the Shogunate: food prices. The Industrial revolution had left the Japanese agricultural sector in dire straits, while the expanding of Empire made food imports cheaper than ever. Agriculture was traditionally the main source of income for the aristocracy, and thus a big worry for those Daimyo in the Kizokuin, almost all of whom were landowners. The solution devised by the Minister for Agriculture (Nomusho Bugyo) was to subsidise domsetic agriculture through a 25% tariff on all food imports. Naturally the colonials were none too happy about it but it kept domestic agriculture alive for the time being and would have done so for a lot longer had the farmers and peasants remained at work throughout 1848 instead of going on strike and joining in the Constitutional demonstrations; but they didn't.

Japan has always had a rather large population for such a small island, and with so little land available the amount of food which could be produced in any given year was always limited. Japan had always survived because of serfdom; there was always enough workers to wring the most out of what little available and because peasants could be relied upon to be kept in line. The demonstrations were not crippling by any sense of the word but they disrupted this delicate equilibrium, causing food shortages which in turn caused prices to skyrocket out of control. The natural solution would be to import food from other parts of the Empire which weren't affected by the demonstrations, but these imports would still incur tariffs, making it unprofitable to do so. The government was stuck in a conundrum with no way out.


Once again the radical breeze began to blow throughout the land of the rising sun. Those who turned to extra-parliamentary action in the years preceding the food crisis began to turn to it once more, and rioting broke out in Osaka and Kobe. Hidetoshi knew what was coming, and knew what it took to make sure the Japanese Spring never happened again. He took decisive action. In one sweeping reform, the Shogun abolished all tariffs on importation of food, sacked the Agriculture Minster and several of his cohorts and decreed that by the end of 1850 Japan would have a Constitution, based on the Prussian model. "That should take the wind out of the sails of the Constitutionalists" he was said to remarked before making the proclamation.

In one masterful stroke Hidetoshi had saved the country from famine and strife and prevented the Constitutionalists from taking advantage of the situation. There was still the matter of the landowners who started the whole tariff thing in the first place; they would have to be placated. Again Hidetoshi had the answer, and in a most bold and selfless solution, he sacrificed some of his own power to do so. Hidetoshi decreed that in line with the new constitution, there should be a new Kizokuin, one elected rather than appointed. The nobles were more than happy by this unexpected outcome, more power to themselves, or so they thought...



[1] Regardless of which Paradox game I play, I always like to organise my units into divisions of equal size and troop type. In this game, a Japanese Infantry division consists of four infantry units and one artillery unit while a cavalry brigade consists of three cavalry units.

[2] 80ish out of around 320 soldier POPs, I'm saving my Japanese troops for Guards.

[3] In order: Basic Chemistry, Medicine, Experimental Railroads, Post-Nelsonian Thought and The Command Principle (Army). Japan is currently researching Army Professionalism.