July 39: Surprise DOW
ITALY NAVAL INTELLEGENCE: Intelligence continues to be gathered on the Royal Navy, results as follows:
British Naval Engineering (theory): 15.7
Aircraft Carrier Construction Practical: 15.3
The British are currently researching:
Battlefleet Concentration
Submarine Hull
Naval Strike Tactics
Capitol Ship Main Armament
ITALY PRODUCTION: As Italy enters a new fiscal year its time to project what the build schedule will look like.
(above) Italy plans to convert five (5) reserve infantry corps to light infantry corps, and build one (1) new mobile infantry corps. The navy reserve will receive three (3) destroyers, two (2) heavy cruisers, and two (2) light cruisers. The Air force will strip interceptor support from its ground support wings (because they won't be used) and create a new interceptor wing. Air force reserves will get two (2) new interceptor groups.
AXIS DIPLOMACY--WAR: Germany DOW'd Poland on September 3, 1939 over the Danzig corridor.
ITALIAN FORCE DISPOSITIONS: Italy is prepared for a defense war, at least until its armed forces come up to strength. The following is a disposition of Italy's armies:
(above) The army in northern Italy is drawn up in a three-layer defense-in-depth. Mobile reserves consist of one corps of mobile infantry deployed just behind the front line. Two divisions of motorized infantry at Pisa are also in reserve.
(above) The defense of Tobruk in N.Africa is essentially one corps of light infantry supported by the Desert Corps on the southern flank. Colonial militia man the border to provide intellegence on enemy movement and warn of any attack.
(above) Albania is defended by the Alpine corps.
(above) Rome is defended by six divisions of motorized infantry with a seventh in reserve at Naples. A stack of unused HQ's sit under Rome HQ, most of these had come from Ethiopia or N. Africa where they would otherwise have been a drain on supply.
In MP, the Allies sometimes send an expedition to Rome to rob Italy of its stockpiles. So, it's necessary to keep a number of highly mobile reserves in the region to oppose any landings in this region.
(above) In Ethiopia, Field Marshal De'Havet will be in overall charge at Theater HQ, and will have five (5) colonial militia directly attached. At the start of war these forces will operate under AI command. Each militia is headed by a commando leader, and are expected to hold out for six months at least.
(above) Sardinia is defended by one corps of reserve infantry and three divisions of coastal militia. The loss of Sardinia would open-up the west coast of Italy to invasion, and for this reason it must be defended. If a landing is detected, a reserve force will be dispatched to the island.
In MP especially, if left undefended, the Allies (esp. the Canadians or Americans) will make Sardinia a base of operations. It is highly unlikely Italy will win a sustained conflict on this island, so these forces are considered expendable.
(above) Sicily is defended by two corps of reserve infantry and three divisions of coastal militia. If threatened by invasion ALL available reserves will be rushed to its defense.
If Sicily is lost the Italian Navy will not be able to move back and forth from the east to west coasts, and will then have to retreat to the safety of Venice. Therefore, any invasion of Sicily must be vigirously opposed
Tripoli is the main supply port for N.Africa, and is defended by one corps of reserve infantry. The British and Frence (esp. in MP) sometimes make an early play for Tripoli, so if threatened a reserve force will be dispatched.
ITALIAN DIPLOMACY: WAR!
As Poland capitulated on October 17, Italy DOW'd England. Italy established as its war goal the capture of Malta. Italy immediately got the effects of “Trains Run on Time” and “Its Our Time,” which boosted leadership by 10%. Italy immediately changed conscription policy to "Service by Requirement," and industrial policy to "Heavy Industry."
(above) Immediately upon the DOW an invasion force was sent to Malta. The small British garrison was caught unaware, and the island captured in a matter of days. Italian marines were then relieved by a garrison force of two divisions of reserve infantry sent from Bengazi.
ITALY STRATEGY—War Timing: The timing of Italy's entry in the war is crucial to its success. France and England begin wartime production immediately upon the German DOW, so in the arms race--the longer Italy waits, the further behind it gets. Playing it safe, and waiting till the fall of France is the traditional Italian strategy, but the Allies should never take this for granted. Italy should always be poised to take advantage of the situation early in the war if the Allies leave certain strategic provinces unguarded (i.e. Malta and/or Suez).
While Italy's army's are ill-prepared for war in '39, the Regio Marina is as good as it gets. From this point on the naval balance of power in the Med. only goes downhill for the Axis. Therefore, it's best for Italy to act early, when the Allies are least prepared for it.
The timing of a surprise DOW should coincide with the fall of Poland, that way German divisions returning from central Europe can immediately deploy to the Italian frontier. If the Axis succeeds in capturing Paris from the South, it eliminates the need to attack through the low countries. The Netherlands, in particular, have large stockpiles of rares and oil, and could greatly benefit the Axis as a neutral trading partner.
Italy's early entry into the war is designed to catch the British and French by surprise. Italian submarines stationed around the Med can help evaluate the disposition of enemy forces and fleets. It's going to take England time to build-up its land forces, and so now they must decide between an expeditionary to France, or defense of the Suez Canal (usually the latter). As well, France is in no position to launch a full-scale invasion of Italy. So, in the final analysis, Italy really has little to lose from an early DOW.
Next Time: The Empire Strikes Back