The War that Had to Be Won (1936: The Road to War)

[El Pip]

Impressive the way German hyperinflation just disappeared. Was everyone in the Reichbank and Ministry of Finance put against the wall and shot, with a promise that if anyone so much as touched the printing press they'd be next?

It's have to be something at least that impressive as the group stupidity in German financial circles was wide spread.

[Kurt_Steiner]

Chapter sixteen: Distant guns

Hardly the Kangxi Emperor could imagine that one of his most impressive architectural achievements would be the place for China's biggest nightmare. The Lugou Bridge, also know as the Marco Polo Bridge, is a famous stone bridge located to the southwest of Beijiong, across the Yongding River. Praised by the Venetian traveler Marco Polo as one of the finest bridges of the world, it was there where the Second Sino-Japanese War began.

Since June 1937 the Japanese army had become used to carry out intensive military training maneuvers in the vicinity of the western end of the Marco Polo Bridge. As these were held at night, the Chinese government requested to be noticed in advance. Tokio agreed but, on the night of July 7, 1937, some hotheaded Japanese commander decided to carry out a night exercise without giving the Chinese prior warning. Of course, the local Chinese forces were taken by surprise and, as it uses to happen when dealing with armed men, a shot was fired. The Japanese soldiers, of course, replied to the fire and the Chinese, thinking themselves attacked, fired back. Thus both sides kept shooting at each other for some time after both commanders decided to call it a day. Then, once the troops were back in their barracks, it was found that a Japanese soldier went missing. His company commander, Major Kiyonao Ichiki, thought that the Chinese had captured him, and reported the incident to his regimental commander, Colonel Renya Mutaguchi. Mutaguchi was well know in the Imperial Army for his fanatic belief in the Bushido and for being quite short-tempered (what in any other army you would call a fire-eater and a real pain in the arse). So, when he was told by Ichiki about the incident, he sprung into action at once and sent his whole regiment, plus some mountain guns and machine guns, against the Chinese troops which were protecting the Marco Polo Bridge.The Chinese, once recovered from the nasty surprise, also rushed an extra division to the area and, of course, thus the incident began.

Renya Mutaguchi.

Initially the Japanese forces overran the bridge and its vicinity but the reinforced Chinese soon outnumbered the Japanese (1) and were able to retake the bridge. At this point, the Japanese Foreign Service began negotiations in Beijing with the Chinese Nationalist government and a verbal agreement with General Qin was reached, whereby an apology would be given by the Chinese; punishment would be dealt to those responsible; and the Chinese would recover the control the area. This was agreed upon, though a Japanese commander, General Masakazu Kawabe, rejected the truce and continued to shell Wanping against his superiors' orders for the next three hours until he was told to stop at once.

If the truce had remained in place, the Marco Polo Bridge Incident would have ended as a minor, albeit foolish, skirmish. However, from midnight of July 9, Japanese and Chinese kept reinforcing the area, with four divisions of Chinese troops and three on the Japanese side rushing to the area. Confronted with the threat of another battle, General Kanji Ishiwara requested the Japanese government to make public statements on the matter, and he got surprised when Tokio took a too hard-line approach for the Kwantung Army's taste. Thus, while Prime Minister Fumimaro Konoye managed to make a big balls-up of the whole situation, the tension kept rising and some Japanese guns shelled Wanping.

Of course, the Chinese took Konoye's words quite badly and attacked the Japanese lines on the 27 July, but it was a bad ideas, as they discovered when the Japanese soldieres gave them a black eye. Then the Japanese released their tanks and the Japanese tanks began crossing the bridge. The Second Sino-Japanese War had begun. By the end of July, the Imperial Japanese Army captured the Chinese capital, Beijing, and the port city of Tientsin, while the Japanese marines landed in Shangai on August 8. However, a much larger Chinese army was awaiting them, and this resulted in massive fighting from the 13th onwards which included heavy raids of the Japanese Air Force against the city, causing in ten thousands of civilian casualties. In spite of lacking an Air Force worth of that name and having a navy that was a joke, the Chinese held their ground against the incoming Japanese for nearly two weeks.

Then came the death knell for the Republic of China. By early August both London, Paris and Berlin were decided to do something about the "China Incident". Then, August 21 1937, the governments of the Republic of China and the Soviet Union sign a Non-Aggression Pact, resulting in an improvement of the relations between the two nations, and to the secret 'Operation Zet': Moscow was to send aircrafts and resources to help the Kuomintang against the invading Japanese. Of course, as it happens with any "secret operation", someone "leaked" the content of the agreement to the Abwehr, the Deuxième Bureau and the MI5 (2). At once, London and Paris agreed: Beijing had sided with the evil. China was on its own, now (3).

One of the Soviet Polikarpov I-16 fighters sent to reinforce the Chinese Airforce.

(1) Really? Are you kidding me, aren't you?
(2) That 'someone' clearly didn't know how to keep a secret, methinks.
(3) Just exactly as she was BEFORE the "leaking".



@FlyingDutchie: The Panzer II was a clever German plot to keep confused the foreign spies.

Von Papen and von Schleicher are swallowing their pride and rage for Stressmann's success. With a bit of luck von Papen may become the next German ambassador in the Tibet and von Schleicher will end trainning the Chilean army.

@Razgriz 2K9: They had to begin somewhere...

@Nathan Madien: Even the French must protect against themselves

The guy of the second row was an anarchist in disguise, obviously...

@El Pip: Purging the Reichbank and the Ministry of Finance was a tempting idea, I must confess, but I decided to keep things simple: as Britain wasn't in the mood to utter destroy Germany and knowing that she would need a strong German economy to buy their goods, Lloyd George didn't press for a Versailles Treaty too hard, as I mentioned in the GW AAR. Also, someone pay attention to Hjalmar Schacht during the Great War and imposed an income tax to pay for the war instead of funding the war effort entirely by borrowing. They did borrow and thus the Mark fell a bit against the US dollar, but not so much. Also, London didn't issue their ultimatum of May 1921 demanding the reparations to be paid in gold or foreign currency, thus Berlin didn't need to to buy foreign currency with Marks at any price, the Mark didn't sank as fast as it did in OTL, there was no Ruhr occupation, no general strike, no more money printed foolishly and inflation remained inflation and didn't become hyperinflation.

[trekaddict]

Oh Jesus...I was about to suggest massive British and German industrial aid when I read the bit with the Soviets...

[FlyingDutchie]

Asking for Soviet help. Effective way to alienate anyone else from assisting you... Guess China always ends up shooting itself in the foot in a HoI-AAR

[Razgriz 2K9]

As if they didn't learn with the Communists in China...Ah well...

Should I support Japan or China...on one hand one side provides General Tso Chicken, on the other hand the other provides Anime and Ace Combat...very much a conundrum.

[trekaddict]

Yeah. One Piece or noodles with soy sprouts and sweet sauce....

[Nathan Madien]

Asking for Soviet help. Effective way to alienate anyone else from assisting you...

Except the United States, of course. Everyone knows this Pitman fellow is a closet communist.

Should I support Japan or China...on one hand one side provides General Tso Chicken, on the other hand the other provides Anime and Ace Combat...very much a conundrum.

Well, my money is on Japan. They always win. That makes this a safe bet.

[El Pip]

London didn't issue their ultimatum of May 1921 demanding the reparations to be paid in gold or foreign currency, thus Berlin didn't need to to buy foreign currency with Marks at any price, the Mark didn't sank as fast as it did in OTL, there was no Ruhr occupation, no general strike, no more money printed foolishly and inflation remained inflation and didn't become hyperinflation.

So the Allies let themselves be taken in by the German plan to inflate their way out of reparations? I imagine that went down well with the various electorates once they found out....

I wonder how relieved London and Paris were by the 'leak' of Soviet assistance. Makes doing nothing seem more decisive somehow.

[Faeelin]

Then came the death knell for the Republic of China. By early August both London, Paris and Berlin were decided to do something about the "China Incident". Then, August 21 1937, the governments of the Republic of China and the Soviet Union sign a Non-Aggression Pact, resulting in an improvement of the relations between the two nations, and to the secret 'Operation Zet': Moscow was to send aircrafts and resources to help the Kuomintang against the invading Japanese. Of course, as it happens with any "secret operation", someone "leaked" the content of the agreement to the Abwehr, the Deuxième Bureau and the MI5 (2). At once, London and Paris agreed: Beijing had sided with the evil. China was on its own, now (3).

I'm a bit confused. Because the Chinese are accepting aid against Japan, the British and French think China is an enemy?

[trekaddict]

Because they are accepting aid from the Soviets against which the Brits and French are in a sort of cold war in Europe.

[Faeelin]

Because they are accepting aid from the Soviets against which the Brits and French are in a sort of cold war in Europe.

They could have offered aid of their own!

In short, the UK and France should be partitioned between the Soviet-American alliance.

[trekaddict]

They could have offered aid of their own!

Never said it was supposed to make sense.

In short, the UK and France should be partitioned between the Soviet-American alliance.

I shall meet you at dawn, Sir!

[El Pip]

They could have offered aid of their own!

Or China could have asked for them for aid, which might have been forthcoming as the update also said;

By early August both London, Paris and Berlin were decided to do something about the "China Incident".

Instead they went running straight to the Soviets without even bothering to ask anyone else. At which point they can hardly be surprised they're not popular with the powers they snubbed.

[H.Appleby]

What about U.S. aid? Will the Pittman Act have any effect on the plight of the Guomindong?

[Milites]

Oh China, doomed under the iron heel of Japanese militaristic fascism because the Entente is scared dead of the Red Bear. Well, so much for the defenders of Western democracy (an anology of the French dessertion of the OTL Republican Spanish government, Kurt?)

By the way, you're the new WritAAR of the Week.

[Alfredian]

Excellent writing and thought so far. I particularly enjoyed the RN update.

[Kurt_Steiner]

Chapter seventeen: The Man and the Press

After the Marco Polo Bridge incident, 1937 speeded itself to a enervating end. As China went down in defeat after defeat, Stresseman, Chamberlain, De la Rocque and Balbo met in Munich to deal with the Asian events and the shame of Prague, but nothing which mattered broke out of the meeting: the illusion of “peace in our time” had been shattered by Moscow and Tokio. Balbo kept making few friends by denouncing the situation as "a sell-out" and a "betrayal" of democracy. When he returned to Rome, he kept repeating his disappointment in a series of public and impolitic interviews that forced the intervention of the Fascist Grand Council: the jerarchi threatened him with censure if he didn't quit these "gross criticisms". Afterwards Balbo was more restrained and politic in his speeches, though never completely dropped his growing alarm at the resurgent USSR. In due time and in a not so distant future, this flood of interviews would be source of endless embarrassement of the new Duce.

Here we can see Chief Blackhorn and Italo Balbo, when the future Duce was adopted by the Sioux as "Chief Flying Eagle." in 1933

In Britain these events threatened to cause a crisis within the Conservative ranks when Churchill and some “ultra” Tories wanted to split away from the party to from their own distinctive party. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party abandoned itself into new levels of lyrical speeches when Sir Archibald Sinclair, the Liberal shadow Foreign Secretary, said in his speech in Parliament that

All is over. Silent, mournful, abandoned, broken, Czechoslovakia recedes into the darkness.

Then, on 8 October Churchill announced to the media the formation of the National Alliance, which would contest the general election. Its main policies were a cast-iron guarantee of British military support for any democracy in the world against Soviet aggression, accelerated rearmament, the creation of a Ministry of Supply, the pursuance of an alliance with the United States, the introduction of conscription, and the maintenance of a strong Empire including Imperial Preference. Of course, the National Alliance was immediately condemned as a group of imperialists, militarists, reactionaries and a Churchill fan club. Just in case, to avoid being blamed for Conservatives losing seats or not gaining opposition held seats, the Executive Council of the National Alliance (NA) decided not to contest Conservative held constituencies. And then, as if the split wasn't bad enough, unemployment, that by 1937 had fallen to 1.5 million, rose again to 1,810,000 by January 1938 suggesting that the recovery was to be short lived. The government's position -that the present increased rate of unemployment was temporary and that unemployment would soon fall and cheap money for building industry- gave arguments for the Liberal party: they were dead set for free trade, as, for them, it was essential for economic prosperity and they would eliminate all tariffs and barriers to trade.

A moment in history freezed by a cameraman: Neville Chamberlain holds in his hand Churchill's annoucement and states that "never a man vas so vile nor a decision was so unwise" -1-.

For a while it looked as if No 10 and Britain were to forget about the Continent.

What would bring 1938 to the world?



-1- He also thought: WiNnIeEeEeEeE!!!! CaN You ImAGiNe WhAT I am To dO wITh ThiS piEcE oF CraP wHeN I'LL Go To ThE tOiLEt, cAN't yOUuUuU, ThOu faTTy trAiToR!?!?!


@Trekaddict: Perhaps in a distant future, once the Soviets are crushed...

@FlyingDutchie: As I saved the Spanish Republic, someone had to "inherit" her bad luck...

@Razgriz 2K9: Ah, I wonder what Hobbes would have said about that...

@Nathan Madien: Pittman... I knew I was forgetting something... May I kill him -retroactively- in a bout of flu in 1919 or would it be too cheeky?

@El Pip: No, the Allies "allow" Germany to pay the reparations in a more sensitive and sensible way. No need to inflate your Marks if you can have more time to pay.

Doing nothing... well, they can set a comittee to study what to do (sir Humphrey Appleby and Bernard Wolley approves that idea). I guess that by 1955 the report will be ready. Oh wait...

@Faeelin: They think that China is joining or going down the wrong road and their feeling (already a bit cold) freeze even more.

@trekaddict: That right.

@Faeelin: But Moscow was faster than them. Think how they hesitated about what doing in OTL SCW about the Moscow-"controlled" Spanish Republich unitl it was too late.

@El Pip: Too true, dear sir. They were going to do something (when it would be too late, of course), but Beijing got frightened and jumped the wrong wagon...

@H.Appleby. Let's say that as Moscow helped China in spite of the Pittman Act, FDR would help Chiang in spite of Moscow. If this may change the tide of war... we shall see.

@Milites: Indeed, I couldn't avoid making history repeating itself.

@Alfredian: Thank you!

[Razgriz 2K9]

So you gave Spain's bad luck to China? Well, Japan will be having a puppet soon enough viewers...

God only knows if Britain goes Fascist.

[Mr. Santiago]

Meanwhile, the Liberal Party abandoned itself into new levels of lyrical speeches when Sir Archibald Sinclair, the Liberal shadow Foreign Secretary, said in his speech in Parliament that

All is over. Silent, mournful, abandoned, broken, Czechoslovakia recedes into the darkness.

This is all nice, but will the voter rather Liberal poetry over Winnie's love for guns?

Only time, erm..., Kurt, will tell

[H.Appleby]

Winne shot Hitler, QED that he ought to be the PM