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I think we need 2 to 3 CAS wings to be produced, if we are to provide sufficient air support for our ground units, our fighters are numerous enough to cover our air forces while in the sky. Can we produce CASes? If yes, how much of our IC and time will it take? If not, how long will it take to research them?
 
We do have light bombers already and seeing how small our budget is, I do not see how we could possibly afford another type of aircraft.
 
*You can suggest an amphibious strike if you want, but you need to say which units to use for that purpose.

We do have two spare SNLF divisions for such operations right at Hawaii. The one earmarked for garrison duty on Honolulu can be used for this and the one currently not earmarked for China or Hawaii. This should suffice for any such operation. However, I'll wait what Adm Yamamoto has to say about this. It seems that the port of Christmas Island is a good opportunity for his CAGs to strike at the enemy while he is in port.
 
Can we produce CASes? If yes, how much of our IC and time will it take?
*Yes, we can. They cost ~1360 ICdays. However, we already have some light bombers and they lack range to be useful in China now, so until we research Drop Tanks, it would be a waste to produce LBs. BTW you can check the tech screens in one of the older updates (http://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/showthread.php?561501-Influence-Wars-Japan-1936-HPP-Interactive-AAR-GAMEPLAY-THREAD&p=13659441&viewfull=1#post13659441). Some new techs have been researched since then, but you can check which ones by looking at the updates, where I provide such information.
 
Adm. Yamamoto: Pearl Harbour, Hawaii

Surely it would be more prudent to build more medium bombers, than light bombers given they can drop more ordinance against troop heavy armies in China? Having said that lighter bombers do provide focused fire better against armoured targets. Our heavy fighters do make a mix between the two.

-----------------------------

This admiral is not so enthusiastic about mixing the carriers into the battlefleet, I would prefer that they stay in general separated so they don't close with the fleet. Given we now have land based aviation platforms, and our fleets will be playing interdiction rolls from this islands, our fighter wings can take over from the carrier aviation. I would see the fleets reorganised without the 3rd fleet 'on station' in the pacific and instead its CAGs transferred to China where the CAG ground attack roll should soon be completed to aid there. We can keep the IJN Hosho in the 3rd fleet, with the currently most damaged CAG for CSF operations. I would prefer other carriers to return in general to Japan since they won't have their air assets when those are in China.

The result should be that we can deliver blows to the Chinese air force at the same time as we are destroying their repair workshops and replacement factories. The cost in repair and refit 'upgrades' to the Chinese alone should become prohibitive.

Otherwise I concur with the organisation and deployments of the Battlefleets*. In fact I like the idea of sending our naval bombers here, we should be able to reach both the US ports at Phoenix and Christmas Island, and rotating bombing between them (and any other ports in range) means we should be able to keep the ports well and truly damaged and out of action. Should the US at any point send a fleet there it can be bombed as well.


Industrial Production:
So long as once the IJN Kashii is completed it is replaced, I am happy to allow the army part of the budget which once was tied up in the IJN Katori. I would prefer that the new Battleship be laid as soon as we have the new turbines rather than delay, and for that having the Battlecruiser ready sooner rather than later is better for us, since overall it will diminish the overall cost of the new Battleship since the shipyard will be kept in continual operation. This is desirable for all concerned, while delaying production will cost more to all concerned.

This frees up less of the budget for the army. However they do not need to be producing mass divisions to aid in China, particularly if we are sending the Marines and CAGs to fight for them. I won't consent to trading shipyard materials for producing mountain equipment however. This Admiral feels that by the time we can produce such equipment 'up-to-spec'** the army could have made much better use of more guns and machine-guns. Similar I am less than enthusiastic in producing light bombers for operations in China, but I won't place an ultimatum here for acquiesced industry like mountain forces.

I might suggest though to the Army that research in assault weapons will be becoming prudent given the nationalists will be completing several more fortification projects in the hills and mountains of central china over the next few months.



Naval Research Priority List:

- Top Priority Battleship Engine
- In research Naval Air Control Doctrine '38--->modern*
- Naval Air Command Structure '38--->modern*
Completed Cruiser Main Armament '41
- In Research Cruiser Engine '42 (higher priority for future ships)
- Cruiser AA Armament '42
- Small Warship Radar '42
- In research Carrier Taskforce Doctrine '41
- In research Cruiser Escort Doctrine '41
- Fire Control System Training '41
- Radar Training '41
- Night Fighting Training '42 (Navy ships)
- Cruiser Crew Training ('43 ? because '42 is completed)
- ASW Tactics 39'

Air Research:
-Top Priority CAG Ground Attack Roll


Strategic Bombing in China:
We can see that the enemy cannot support any more divisions. This is because the Nationalists have switched from unit production to fort construction as can be seen on the intelligence maps. This indicates that should they be 'run out of industry' they shall have great difficulty in maintaining supplies to their troops.

FC5ChinaSouth3.JPG

Strategic bombing to 'run them out of industry' is therefore an option on the table. One that could prove to be decisive given this new intelligence. I wouldn't otherwise have suggested it. The remaining Chinese industry will not be concentrated strongly and we won't be able to get it all, but we already know many of the industrialised towns and targeting one after another might reduce the Chinese industrial capacity by 50%, although I doubt much more than that.

If we reach a point where we have damaged all known factories switching to logistical bombing near will even further hamper the Chinese. After all its not like our armies need local superiority in combat quality, we just need to crush the nationalists weight of numbers on the field.


* Is the IJN Nagato the fastest battleship in the fleet? we should aim to keep the closing speed high on the 2nd fleet, and if we find a convoy line within a short range of Hawaii we should endeavour to have some target practice with USMN convoys.

** While the first specialist division could be recruited by the end of the year, we need more than one division, furthermore the tech research to make them good at their roll will take 2 years and conflict with keeping modern doctrine, our rocketry division and maintaining the armies general standard of equipment. Mountain divisions are not a 'quick solution' The Marines are not particularly research intensive since we have already salt-proofed their equipment and just improving the amtrac and landers is our current concerns....


Memorandum:
The gains by the Chinese puts Zongrens Gunagxi at risk, what is their surrender progress?
 
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In fact I like the idea of sending our naval bombers here, we should be able to reach both the US ports at Phoenix and Christmas Island, and rotating bombing between them (and any other ports in range) means we should be able to keep the ports well and truly damaged and out of action. Should the US at any point send a fleet there it can be bombed as well.
*Where? The Hawaiian Islands? There are no airfields on Palmyra and I doubt that our naval bombers have enough range to reach the Christmas Island from Honolulu... or do you plan to build an airfield in the area?

The gains by the Chinese puts Zongrens Gunagxi at risk, what is their surrender progress?
*0%, but if the enemy captures Gullin, Guangxi will be in big ****.
 
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Message to Adm. Yamamoto:

Obviously, I would agree to start production of two new battleships as soon as possible, once the latest engines are available. However, I am still waiting to see if we can do more to support the army in China. We can only throw in few of our assets and the war in China is a concern for all of us.

Regarding 3rd fleet, I still strongly advise to have this fleet at Hawaii. We do not know what the USN are building and we already encountered a fleet with an escort carrier. Assuming the US have been focussing on capital ships a while already, we can expect them to have several new capital ships ready within this quarter. I would rather not have to rely on land based air cover, especially since we are expecting the US not to strike at Hawaii but at any of the other captured islands.

Furthermore, I am not inclined to let the US sit on Phoenix and Christmas Islands. Instead, we should occupy these as well. They are nearby from Hawaii anyway, we do have two SNLF divisions standing ready and we do not need to give the USN submarine bases so close to our most vital port in the eastern Pacific.
 
The Administration also contacted the German and Italian representatives in order to determine whether they would be willing to share the information about confirmed ship losses with us. Apparently the Axis leaders are very unsatisfied with the fact that Japan does not actively support them in their war against the Commonwealth and the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, they are willing to SELL us the information we need. The total cost would amount to ~6000 supply and ~2000 money units.

For my part, I think we can afford that. We do not have 18.000 supplies in stock and almost 4.000 currency. Unless we have any plans for all that money, we could as well use it. However, we would expect regular updates for that kind of information.
 
Message to imperial Administration:
The reports provided do not account for the US 9th submarine fleet, reportedly sunk north of the Philippines, during invasion of Philippines 22nd July 1941. The report also does not include USS Canberra (CA), reportedly sunk at Battle of Agana Bay, 19th October 1941.

Compared to the older reports, we did sink more enemy ships during this period than we thought:
1x CVL (USS Independence)
4x CA (USS Saint Paul, USS Pensacola, USS Portland, USS Chester)
6x CL (USS Raleigh, USS Memphis, USS Milwaukee, USS Omaha, USS Cincinnati, USS Marblehead)
1x DD (US 46th Destroyer Division)
2x SS (US 10th Submarine Division, US 20th Submarine Division)
2x TP (Lew Wallace Flotilla, Oliver Hazard Perry Flotilla)
 
Memo regarding US naval loses and the continuation of the war against the US.

Admiral Baltasar's analysis of US loses are very encouraging, I would guess (nearly) all the original fleets in the US pacific theatre has been sunk, leaving only ships in the US Atlantic fleet as an effective fighting force. Atlantic forces would be 2 CV, 2? BB, lots of escorts.

The war with the US should be prosecuted fast in the Pacific, the navy's current lack of garrisons can be help by lending any free army Gar until the deficit can be corrected. Also one of the northern islands looked like it had 6 Gar brigades which should not be needing so many.

Now that we posses Honolulu can the navy give an estimate of the feasibility of invading the Panama Channel?
Taking the channel would allow us to engage the remaining US fleets and hopefully defeat them totally before any further wars break out. This would effectively put us on equal footing naval-wise with all remaining fleets.
 
The Administration wants to point out that the problem is not so much lack of troops, but the time it takes to transport them and organise escorts for the transport fleets. The Wake Island serves as a major junction between the relatively safe home waters and the area possibly infested with enemy submarines.
 
Memo regarding US naval loses and the continuation of the war against the US.

We know that the US have 3 BBs left of their original force, those are the only capitals we know about.

Now that we posses Honolulu can the navy give an estimate of the feasibility of invading the Panama Channel?
Taking the channel would allow us to engage the remaining US fleets and hopefully defeat them totally before any further wars break out. This would effectively put us on equal footing naval-wise with all remaining fleets.

The Panama Channel is out of reach, it seems. We simply lack the range to attack it, even with all US islands under our control. The administration mentioned as much earlier.
 
Memo to General Holy,

Research
Back in '36 we decided to concentrate on single engine planes as we simply didn't have enough research available to research both. The category of single engines contains interceptors, heavy fighters and CaGs, these will have to fulfil the roles of medium bombers and naval bombers.
Also the research of mountain units support techs and mountain units at all has been scrapped as the general infantry is more all round and better with the addition of artillery.
The current problems with LB range will be solved by drop tanks that should be researching in the near future, this will also help all other planes.

Air force
The current heavy bombers have not been upgraded since '36 but are good at bombing Chinese factories to reduce their capacity. The single MB and Nav should be retrained to H.Ftr and CaG respectively as they are worthless now, the interceptors are still the best at local air superiority and can be kept.
As long as the 3 light bombers can hit a single enemy province they should fly around the clock if nothing else then to train pilots regardless of any supply difficulties.

Supply
There should not be any supply problems at the front for now, and to prevent them in the future the rails going out of Shanghai toward west china, burma and Mongolia should be improved, this will also help in any future conflict either with the CW or USSR. We also need to keep construction practical up for when we advance.
While we are stalled in China we should keep 5 infrastructure upgrades running at all times to ensure supplies are adequate, if we advance this might have to be increased.
The administration reports some supply troubles in north china, we would need a supply and infra map to look at that problem.

Army composition
I will also remind that the reason we have been using 2xinf+X divisions is that we have a very long front to cover and the lesser generals ((AI)) are much better at handling more divisions as opposed to fewer stronger.
Should we get at war with the CW and USSR in addition to the US you will quickly see that we only have slightly more than one division per border province.
After the defeat of the Chinese we will need to garrison the new borders against the USSR and CW which will take most of the current army. And opposed to what Admiral Yamamoto thinks, puppet regimes simply can't keep up in tech against these industrial nations we will therefore have to take control and garrison it ourself. This will leave us with only 2-3 Homengun for other operations, which is too little.

Now opposed to the Admirals I don't have a problem with letting some unnamed general commanding some division as long as its not a majority. Letting 2 out of the 8 divisions of a Homengun being led by generals who hasn't yet made a name for themselves should not be a problem as there usually is a known general in the same battle to take control. We shouldn't employ leaderless Homengun, but spread the problem around.

Budget
Also we need to pressure the cabinet in regard to the budget, at the moment the navy is totally sitting on the budget with nearly 80 IC as opposed to our nearly 60 IC. We simply need to build a lot of extra division right now.

We should always build
5 infra
1 Gar
1 H.Ftr
4+ Inf types (Marines are navy) unless we are below 200 manpower, then we should build armour.
We shouldn't need more kempetai that the current production, which also might be too much.

State of the world
Our current war with the US will not reach a conclusion for the next years unless the US smarts up, either by defeating us or negotiating a peace. We can only force a peace on them by directly invading them and that would take an army at least twice our current size and a free back.

The CW is currently embroiled in a battle to the death with the Axis, they do not have the manpower to engage us before at least one of those are defeated. They also don't have any reason to attack up right now as we are not in the axis.

The USSR have attacked us twice in recent time are also engaged in a death struggle with the axis. As soon as they finish off the axis they will be back with their full force, some 300 division.

So the situation is stable as long as none defeats the others or none joins any extra wars nor anyone runs dry of either resources or manpower.
The first of these events would happen in late '42 early '43, here I've listed the most likely.

Despite current Italian success the CW should defeat them in north Africa late '42 if they concentrate on them.
- This means an imminent invasion of Italy with a potential collapse soon after.
- result : defeat of the axis.
- very likely

Germany should run out of manpower.
- The USSR will then steamroll them.
- result : defeat of the axis.
- certain, they will run out.

Germany defeats the Soviets in '42
- Despite the current bad position of the axis forces they would somehow defeat the soviets.
- result : threatening an invasion of the UK the US would have to join the allies or risk facing 2 hostile powers, our hegemony in Asia and German in Europe. This will escalate into a world war but with equal forces.
- unlikely.

The US joins the allies against the axis
- The extra 50-150 division will hasten the axis demise.
- result : defeat of the axis
- likely

The US joins the allies and the allies goes to war with us.
- result : all out war.
- likely

Allies make an disastrous invasion of Europe
- An invasion of the continent is thrown back into the sea with the loss of 30+ divisions
- result : prolongs the axis life but the end result is the same in an axis defeat.
- likely smaller invasions gets defeated.
- unlikely large invasions gets defeated

In the event of axis defeat
- The Soviets will attack us for a 3rd time and this time they will not negotiate.
- The US will join the allies at some point bringing the allies into the war against us.
- result : nightmare, Us alone against the world.
- near certain

So under all circumstances the end result will be we will be at war with the allies and soviets (unless the axis wins without us!).
Therefore we must prevent a defeat of the axis or we are ourselves doomed. ((this wouldn't be so muchproblem if we had manual control, but AI control on semi-hard is bad))

Lets see look at the 3 potentially routes out of this (after we defeat the Chinse mind you).

Defeat the US
- not possible before '47 and a secure rear.
- will not safe the axis as the USSR will still grind them down with the help of the allies.
- we would be in a much better situation to deal with it.
- result : most likely a world war before the US is defeated.

Defeat the CW
- Even if we defeat the CW in Asia and Oceania it will have no effect on the outcome of the Axis-USSR war.
- The loss of Suez and South Africa early '43, won't help.
- Invading the UK is only possible if we join the Axis or capture all of Africa for an invasion port in late '43, still too late for the axis.
- result : USSR defeats the axis and then turn on us.

Defeat the USSR
- Only in cooperation with the axis so it must happen soon after the defeat of China or we don't have any to cooperate with.
- taking the USSR by fighting along the Siberian rail way is a doomed proposition as its simply too long a way, 9000 km.
- Any attack from west china is the shortest way to capture any valuable provinces.
- our attack alone will not be enough to defeat the soviets but it can significantly weaken them economic.
- the Kazakh provinces near the west China border contains around 300 resources.
- the central Siberian provinces contains another 3-400 resources.
- reaching the Caucasus from the east is unrealistic unless we somehow attack from Persia, which is guaranteed by the USSR & CW I think.
- capturing these Siberian resources will fatally weaken the Soviets in the long term as around 400 of them are energy they will burn through their storage fast, 80K will be gone in 200 days.


Problem with either plan is that we can't be sure the other power wont attack us before we defeated the first.
Advantage of attacking either the Soviets or the CW is that they already use all their resources against the axis and our forces will just be in reserve if not engage as they can't effectively be used against the US.
 
We know that the US have 3 BBs left of their original force, those are the only capitals we know about.
Can you guess on if we have seen them ever or they all 3 are in the Atlantic fleet?

The Panama Channel is out of reach, it seems. We simply lack the range to attack it, even with all US islands under our control. The administration mentioned as much earlier.

Would it help to research naval range or should we give up on that plan?
 
To Admiral Yamamoto:

Strategic Bombing in China:
What intel about the remaining Chinese industrial sites do we have? Given the distance from the capitol - being the main supply hub for the republicans - and lack of detailed informations from our intelligence officers I can't support bombarding enemy industry and supply lines. If the enemy industry is heavily concentrated I can reconsider bombing of the factories, but not supply routes, they are too close and it'd hamper all other air operations, including close air support for our troops. I think we must capture the nearby airfield, currently being hold by the Chinese, and use our bombers to punch a hole in the enemy lines before forts will be finished thus opening us the way to the capitol and to the quick, decisive victory in China.

To General Surt:

Research:
We should stop dwelling on the past. The plan was made a long ago. The plan can change. The situation made it possible: you thought that China will fall quickly, but it didn't. With the threat of the U.S.R.R. I still think that we should research mountain divisions ASAP and fuel tanks for light aircrafts to solve the problem once and for all. Even if China will fall in a few months our mountaineers will be of use elsewhere, as well as light aircrafts. I think that both technologies should be researched right now. I also advise to train our pilots in ground attacks, to further increase effectiveness of ground strikes.

Budget
5 infra
1 Gar
1 H.Ftr We have too many H.Ftr's and too few LB's in our current airforce.
4+ Inf types At least 4 divisions (3x1 mountaineers + 1x1 artillery) ASAP.

I agree with any other notes.

Espionage:
Even if we can't attack the USA and can only deflect its future blows I still recommend supporting our sympathizers overseas. Political instability in USA will aid us as it were the United States of America who declared war on us and should the goverment change and the public opinion will start being tired of this pointless war, which is more likely if they'll keep losing ground and ships, then political climate can bring us at least political victory, maybe even end of war.

State of the world:
It is obvious that we should complete our conquest of China before deciding to join the Axis. This begs the question: How? Invasion on the USA is out of scope, given our current problems and I doubt it'll ever change.
 
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