Influence Wars - Japan 1936 HPP Interactive AAR - GAMEPLAY THREAD

Servicable Ships post Wake:

2 BB (IJN Yamato 98%, IJN Ise)
1 BC (IJN Haruna 96%)
2 CV (IJN Kaga, IJN Soryu)
3 CVL (IJN Zuiho, IJN Hosho, IJN Ryujo)
5 CA (IJN Aoba 95%, IJN Mogami 92%, IJN Suzuya, IJN Kinugasa, IJN Asama)
9 CL (IJN Kinu 97%, IJN Yubari, IJN Yahagi, IJN Tatsuta, IJN Tama, IJN Oi 95%, IJN Kuma, IJN Naka 90%, IJN Kiso)
19 DD

Considering the US losses in the last weeks, I suggest to continue our offensive. We have the initiative right now and shouldn't hand it over to the US without reason. Hence we will assemble one Battlefleet and two Carrier task forces.

1st fleet: 2x BB, 1x BC, 2x CA, 1x CL, 3x DD

2nd fleet: 1x CV, 2x CVL, 4x CL, 2x DD

3rd fleet: 1x CV, 1x CVL, 4x CL, 2x DD

This does leave three heavy cruisers (IJN Aoba, IJN Mogami, IJN Asama) and a number of destroyer divisions to escort the transport ships.

As soon as a garrison has arrived at Wake island, the escorted transports and the combat fleets will sail for their next target; Midway. After that, we'll go fo Hawaii. Once Hawaii is taken, we'll have the time to take all other US islands in the Pacific at our leasure*. However, Hawaii is the critical target currently.

*Secondary targets being:
South:
Johnston Island
Phoenix Island
Christmas Island
Jarvis Island
Palmyra

North:
Attu Island
Unalaska Island

As always, we'll need to see if we meet serious resistance in between. If we do, we might have to postpone the invasion of Hawaii.


Regarding Production, Research, Intelligence and other domestic areas, I've not changed my mind since our last meeting. The only exception being that I request prefabricated Radar sites, which shall be placed on Hawaii once we've conquered that place. We'll need that equipment there quickly.

To imperial Clerk:

Did the US declaration of war on us contain any hints as to what they want to achieve with their war of aggression?

Does the administration consider thinking out of the box a possibility? We could ask the UK and the Commonwealth if they'd be willing to let us rent some passenger ships? We'd use them to ship US prisoners via Singapour - Australia - Panama Channel to the US, thus making a point that their rulership is lying to them about us and at the same time easing the relations with the UK and the Commonwealth. Those ships would be marked with the red cross all over and would not be escorted by us but by the UK, if they are willing to do that. In a worst case, we'd lose a bit of money for the rented ships and had less prisoners to feed. In light of the US manpower reserves, it'd really make no difference whether or not we would have to face those soldiers again.

(Of course, we'd only release rank and file soldiers, not NCOs or officers)

Whichever way the Emperor decides we go, just thought it might fit into the decadent western countries weird view on honorable behaviour.

Having surveyed the reports about sunk US ships, my office has a more detailed view on our recent victories.

US Battleships (BB): All of these ships were WWI dreadnoughts or super dreadnoughts. Though modernized in the last decade, they did not reflect the state of the art ships the US are undoubtly able to build these days. Three more of these WWI vintages are left afloat within the USN ranks, though they too are not expected to pose too much of a threat if encountered by our capital ships.

US Fleet Carriers (CV): USS Lexington and USS Saratoga were initially laied down as battlecruisers during WWI and later converted to fleet carriers. Since their hulls were designed for other duties, these carriers, though able to carry a lot of planes, were not as good as our later models. USS Enterprise was the only purpose built fleet carrier, only laied down in 1934. She was the only modern capital ship we managed to sink, though she might as well have been the only modern capital ship the US posessed.

US Heavy Cruisers (CA): Most of the sunk heavy cruisers were relatively old, having been laied down between 1927 and 1933. However, their latest class was only laied down in 1940 and 1941. These ships (Baltimore class: USS Baltimore, USS Boston, USS Canberra, USS Columbus) must have been hastily finished in order to have them sea worthy already. We should not underestimate this class since they most certainly were not at peak readiness when they were thrown into battle. On the other hand, their laid down date might mean that our intelligence on the US military might have been flawed by then already. The US might have ordered more ships in the last few years since our relations have begun to deteriorate. In the end, these ships might have been laied down in 1938-39 already without us knowing about them.

US Light Cruisers (CL): Here we have again a mixed picture. About a third of the sunken ships were very old, having been laied down in 1920 (Omaha class). Another third was relatively new (Brookly class) while the last third was very new and does raise similar speculations as the latest US heavy cruisers. The Atlanta class light cruisers were reportedly laied down in 1940, but we suspect that they were in fact laied down up to a year earlier than that.


In a nutshell:
The capital ships we encountered to this day were very old modernized WWI vintages, the CV USS Enterprise being the only exception. The escorts were a mixture of rather old ships with limited usefullness and very modern vessels. This does tell us several things:
1 : The USA were preparing for a new war at sea. They did build several new cruisers, both light and heavy.
2 : Our intelligence failed to notice this preparation and the recently finished constructions.
3 : The USA had not finished their preparations. With only a few cruisers finished, they started the war with a show of force around Saipan, but the vast majority of that force consisted of old ships. If they have a cream of new ships, we only encountered very few of them. Actually, the question is not if but where.
4 : My office believes that the US started the war prematurely. Their fleets, though large and dangerous by sheer numbers, were ill suited for a war with modern capital ships and purpose built fleet carriers. This raises they question why they started the war although their preparations were not finished. The possibilities range from a trigger happy President over parliamental pressure to a mixture of reasons unknown to us. Whatever the cause, it was benefitial to us and the apparent internal friction means that there is not a politically united front within the US parliament.


Conclusion:
We do need to gather intelligence about the US fleet and her vessels. Since our intelligence agents in the US are busy fighting off US agents, our submarines are our best chance. Positioning them off US ports is a good course of action, although the number of submarines neccessary for this should get lower by the time we have occupied all US ports in the Pacific.
Although we did manage to score some astonishing victories at sea, we should not forget that many of our ships need repairs and upgrades and even if the USN does not seem to pose a serious threat at the moment, we should not get too cocky. Methodical advance with concentration of force is neccessary if we do not want to risk losing ships unneccessarily. Midway and Hawaii are the last important US holdings in the Pacific and we do estimate that we have at least half a year of supremacy at sea, even if the US did build more ships than we thought.

The problem I see is that the war with the US is just a drain of our resources. Although we secured the Philippines, their stocks were very low and hadn't much influence on our resource situation. Unless we can somehow force the US to make peace AND pay reparations in form of material, it's just a matter of holding a few islands more in our hands while the real prize is China. Wake, Midway and Hawaii make formidable outposts against the US but that war is not the one deciding the fate of our nation. Hence I agree that once we have a reasonably secure perimeter, we need to use what we have to support the army in China.

However, we still need new ships. While we came off lightly during these battles, we still lost a number of vessels and we need replacements, especially since we do know that the US will soon start throwing new ships at us. Additionally, we need Radar equipment (especially on Hawaii) on several islands and a few more garrisons to guard our perimeter.

Gen. cybvep, why do you think our bombers are old? our L.Bombers should be up to date in tech, taining and doctrines if we haven't used all our LS on spies in the US.

Can we operate the CAGs in support of the southern Chinese front from the carriers? It'd mean that we would put less strain on the supply network in China if they can reach the enemy from their native base.

Our light bombers can come back to China now that we transferred the 3 H.Ftr to pacific.
We could consider rebuilding our M.Bomber to a L.Bomber so we got one more up to date.

Regarding the resource shortage, we have very limited options. What we do not control already belongs to a major faction.

In the north we have the USSR. While we do not suspect much in terms of resources to be gained there, a front there would have the additional benefit of seizing a once in a lifetime chance and fight the Communists while they are busy in Europe. However, this would be a land war and we are still bogged down in China.

In the east we do have the USA. While we are already at war with them, we do not have the means of conquering them and their resources. To make things worse, the war against the USA is a drain on our main effort in China. Any invasion of other countries on the American continent, even if logistically possible, would be in danger of being overrun by the US forces and we can hardly afford a united continent under the US banner, hell bent on fighting us.

This does only leave the south. Indonesia, Dutch East Indies, the British posessions in the Pacific... There are resources there, but this would entail a war with the Allies. This would basically mean war against the rest of the world and the USA would certainly join them, which in turn would make a seperate peace with them impossible. If possible, I would prefer to trade with the Allies, with Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia if at all possible. These routes can hardly be interrupted by US submarines and it might improve our relations with those countries.

We really can do without another war right now. If we really do not see another way to gather sufficient resources, I would very, very strongly recommend to postpone new wars until China has been pacified, so we have the forces neccessary to accomplish what must be done.
Additionally, we must fortify the base on Hawaii (once taken) as long as the USA keep their warmongering attitude towards us, although that only entails radar equipment and a few coastal fortifications. The fleet will need a few more months to really pacifiy the Pacific anyway. Midway should be taken within the next four weeks, Hawaii three to four weeks after that, if we do not encounter naval resistance. While mopping up the remaining US islands in the Pacific, which probably will take some two to three months, we will have to send many of our ships into docks soon.



to administraton:
Can we buy the resources we need on the world market? The afore mentioned countries come to mind, as well as South America or possibly Persia?

Gen Cybvep,

if we do have to protect trade routes between Japan and South America, we will need to patrol the US west coast, both in a show of force and to enable anti submarine groups to operate behind the protection of our combat fleets. This should be not much of a problem for the first half of 1942, since we managed to sink so many US submarines. The second half will show what the US are actually building in their yards.

What bothers me more is that we do not seem to have any possibility to force the USA into submission. Without the possibility to conquer them, all we can do is sit on Hawaii and wait for the Americans to show up. We are forced to hand the initiative to the USA, which is against all military principles. We have to find a way to defeat that enemy on our terms.

As far as production is concerned, I still strongly suggest to start construction on two battleships as soon as possible. These will be the last capital units I will ask for until the end of 1943. These ships will be the most modern vessels of their kind we, and possibly anybody else, have. We will need to continue producing light cruisers to replace our losses. We are already producing several CAGs at a time and the flattop guys may want to replace one of those orders with another carrier or two. Coming to the short term demand, I suggest to prefabricate radar equipment, not only for Hawaii but also for other places, as well as a small investment in coastal fortifications on Hawaii. If I remember correctly, our need for garrisons should be satisfied shortly since we move garrisons from rear areas to less secure places.

The capital ships have to be laied down asap in order for them to have an inpact on the war effort, so we can't cut the naval budget there.

We only can support the army with sending most of our CAGs over to China, retaining a carrier group at Hawaii to guard our perimeter against the USA. Once we are done occupying the US islands, we could also send the SNLF corps to China, though I am reluctant to send the whole corps and instead would want to keep two divisions on Hawaii. If there is any lesson to be learned from the Battle for Saipan, it is that our fleets might be forced to retreat even if they are victorious and that we depend on our land forces to hold the ground and buy time for our fleets to reorganize. However, that would still mean three strong, combat proven marine divisions more in China. Though not much, still better than nothing.


Edit: If I read the reports correctly, we still have a reserve homengun in Japan. We could (and should) commit this to China as well.

On the other hand, we could decomission the homengun and assign the brigades to already formed divisions, thus strenghtening the units in place without needing more divisional commanders. This would be in line with Gen Surts suggestion to strengthen the divisions.