Memorandum:
This Admiral would like to point out that Chiang no longer has access to the vast majority of the Chinese populace. Apart from the areas in and around Kumming and Changde, about 65-75% of the population of China is already under our auspice and is already administered under Semi-Autonomus Collaboration Government. Chiang has ample manpower reserves due to refugees that have fled westward, and the men associated with the armed forces. In terms of civilian support and government in China Chiang has very little.
While many Chinese still see us as occupiers and continue to resist us, at the same time we are winning round parts of the population to the Pan-asian cause. Our continued deployments of military police units are allowing Chinese civilians to report atrocities committed by our soldiers and thus they can be suitably disciplined in order to assure the populace that justice can be done. Thus overall reducing their will to revolt against our auspice. Continuation of such principles will hopefully mean that in the future the majority of Chinese will end up in direct support of our cause.
Overall, we acted in China to bring them into a wider community, and to stop them from continuing to resist the destiny of the times. Since the Emperor and Empire brings the winds of change, we had to teach the Chinese a lesson not to be forgotten and since peaceful methods alone were not enough, Chiang’s regime needed to be changed by force. The Empire of the Rising Sun, is not anti-Chinese, but anti-imperialist, we are the voice of Asian self-determinism, and Japan is the best placed asian power to shout out on the international stage. Hence we are the defacto agents of change.
While Stalin might feel less threatened by an independent China from the Empire, it is also the Balkanisation of Asia, what he fears is our Japanese ability to mobilise the men, and industry of China to creating an Asian Union, and thus threatening Communism in Mongolia and outer Manchuria. Similarly America is threatened by our actions in China leading to us becoming a naval-industrial superpower to challenge themselves, and Britain is in general friends with America, and not overjoyed at hearing how we wish to 'break up the old empires'. Thus we are only nominally aligned to the Axis power bloc since the enemies of enemies are to be courted as cautious friends. Still we do not directly support the Euroaxis, and are more like a 4th power bloc in the world.
If the Euro-axis fall to the Soviets, then are are really the last Great Power on the world island to oppose them, with Britain situated where it is, it is unlikely Stalin would be able to cause it to fall quickly even if he dominates Europe. Overall, his next steps would be to dominate China and India, and then remove both us and Britian from our home islands, and force us into puppet states. Thus geopolitically we would become the 'natural allies' of the Allies, if Stalin comes to dominate Europe.
On the otherhand, since Stalin threatens us directly in China, we are natural allies of him, because he needs a navy, and knows our grip on China while firm, is not absolute, and that we are at war with the Allies making us vulnerable. At the same time he doesn't want to get drawn into another war, so may be skirting us. In the event we become victorious at sea, or even manage to maintain naval power, he would very much want us to be on his side, so we do not align with the Allies against him.
In the Pan-asian, or post-war world without the Euro-axis, our allegiance to either the Allies or Soviets will be fought for, or reversely, the Soviets and Allies will maintain an allegiance against us.
Thus we must make it come to pass that either we are aligned with the Allies or Soviets, such that they do not align against us.
The Allies may make a better power bloc to align to. Overall, they feel threatened by Asian self-determination, but at the same time with us as a weight against Stalin, it would offset any domination he may make over Europe. Thus giving anti-communist leverage for the Allies to reinstate democratic eastern Europe. Furthermore since any conditional peace with them would involve guarantees of all the other nations, we would have the American industrial might working for us, rather than against us in any future major war (unless the Americans return to isolationism, yet given the credit racked up in Russia and Britain it might bankrupt them to return to such a policy if either are threatened and fall into another war).
If the Soviets start moving into Eastern Europe, I strongly suggest we begin the immediate alignment towards the Allies with the aim of coming to a resolution between, us, the Americans and the British to put aside our differences and unite against the Soviets.
Yet, the Soviets have their best attempt to be rid of us by engaging while we are embroiled in this war. Meaning we have to walk the tight-rope with Stalin against a Stab. Aligning towards Stalin now would help prevent such a backstab, since he would appreciate our naval power to help secure the world island and not to interfere in the Soviet Unions eastern territories.
If we do nothing, then it is likely we shall become the 3rd world power to be aligned against in a post Euro-axis world. As you might appreciate, befriend the allies too early or too slowly, and it gives Stalin time/incentive to act against us. But failure to act, means we will become the 'picked on power'. Or we befriend the soviets, but might have to fight the Allies for years and years to come.
An alignment now, before any conclusions are drawn would speak far better volumes for us as 'friends' to whoever we choose, and may make it easier for future policies.
I believe we should seek 'new friends' even as the Euro-axis appears to pick up strength. Since after all they threaten us the least and the gains we get with them are minimal.
Geopolitically:
We may at the end of this year wish to call a diplomatic forum with Stalin and the Allies in a neutral country to find out their positions. Either; solidify a stronger NAP that won't be broken (possibly the Allies guaranteeing peace in Siberia), find out how wary Stalin is of us/his aims for eastern Europe, discuss Asian self-determinism directly with Roosevelt and British compensation for her navy sunk, and colonies occupied in a post war setting.
Not so much calling terms for peace, but call the meeting on the Allies intention following the fall of the Euro-axis, and probing future allegiances.
Bargaining points they might be after;
Both Allies; a fully* independent China.
We should accept (at the worst); an independent China, with Japanese full control over major city/island areas (Shanghai, Qingdao peninsular, Hong Kong, Hannan etc. and coastal strip
Bargaining point; unify Manchurkio Han populated areas with independent China/Mongolian Manchurkio.
Stress: A fully independant Chinese is inept, and liable to fall into another civil war without direct auspice since there are, and have been many warlords destablising the region, and threatening Japan. Futhermore a threatening China, threatens Japan, which nessistates Japans need for an army threating both the Soviets and the Allies. Then, the Chinese need help to industrialise and improve their standard of living. Who out of the Allies or Soviets will bare the burden of such a cost (or do they want the Chinese to live in squalour? Answers can be leaked to the Chinese populace to help support our cause there.)
Americans; Return of the Philippines to American Control
Unacceptable.
We should accept; fully independent Philippines, but only if exchanged for semi-autonomous China.
All; NAP
Acceptable; Japan has yet to commit the dishonour of breaking a promise.
Britain; return of colonies
Unacceptable
We should accept; fully independent Malaya-Borneo and Indonesia, but only if exchanged for semi-autonomous China.
Britain; return of naval bases (Hong Kong/Singapore)
Acceptable with trades for independent Malaya-Borneo and/or Indonesia.
America; return of naval bases (Guam, Honalulu, other pacific islands)
Acceptable with the exception of Wake, Midway and Guam. Reparations may be paid for their acquisition by the Empire. Price may be paid by transfer of debt to be paid by the Soviets or British for aid sent during war (diversify funds, reduce financial risk to America from foreign debt, promote world peace)
All; Guarantees of Independence
Acceptable; under NAP or Alliance conditions.
Soviets; Military Aid
With a guarantee of non-involvement in China, and independence for the Empire, we send as many armies via the TSR as the Soviets do in a joint detente as well as direct bolstering of the Soviet war effort against the germans. It is likely that the Germans would declare war on us just for hearing we are moving units to eastern Europe.
Allies; Military Aid
Unlikely but possible
With a peace, alliance and guarantee for Japanese interests in China, we would send our marine corps to open up a front in Europe to speed the German collapse.
Soviet; military technology
Unlikely but possible
Threat vis a vis Allies
Share knowledge in rocketry and shipbuilding with the Soviets; complex, should only accept with rigorous certainty of Sino-soviet friendship, or as a bluff against the Allies if the soviets control much of Europe and the Allies need a little more convincing.
Points of Offer:
Britain; reinstatement of naval might/war/colonial reparations
Acceptable; under condition total cost to the Empire of the Rising sun, does not exceed 10% of industrial capacity for 50 years.
America; colonial reparations
Acceptable; under condition Guam and Philippines remain under our auspice, total cost does not exceed 2% of industrial capacity for 50 years
Dutch; colonial reparations
Acceptable; any Japanese mineral/resource rights/trades in Malaya-Borneo and Indonesia are shared 50:50 with the Netherlands. Monetary funds will also be paid for territories.
Chinese/America; war reparations
Acceptable; under condition China remains under Empire auspice, total cost is greater than 30% of Empire industrial capacity for 50 years, less than 65% of industrial capacity for 50 years
Chinese/America; subsidised industrialisation and infrastructure rebuilding
Acceptable; under condition China remains under Empire auspice. The Empire shall rise Chinese core regions to current American level industrialisation within 60 years.
America/Britain/Soviets; buy foreign debt
All nations would be willing to have Japan help pay for the war in Europe, and since it promotes peace, and reduces financial risk.
Can claim it goes part of the way for befriending the nazi regime before the war, and a concerted effort to rebuilding great powers damaged by the fighting. Insinuate to the Americans that with a United Empire, the Japanese will not ask for war reparation from the Americans for their war of aggression, if China is not under Japanese auspice we may be inclined to ask for reperations in any treaty.
Australia; support against the Dutch, an Australian right to the rest of Papua New Guinea and a NAP and Guarantee for ANZAC territorial spheres of influence.
ONLY IF Australia can/wants to make such claims.
All; reign in expansionist military
In exchange for recognising new Empire boundaries and territorial possessions, all existing high command will resign from active commissions in times of peace. Such that foreign powers can feel safer that no new 'incidents' will occur.
Allies-alignment; accept constitutional change to allow democratically elected ministers in times of peace. The Emperor will remain the constitutional head of state and head of government with direct command of the Empire armed forces with the power to assemble, and dissemble government and remove ministers that disgrace, or fail in their elected appointments.
ONLY IF we begin aligning this way.
Soviets-alignment; accept constitutional change to Stalinist principles with the Emperor the constitutional head of state and government with direct command of the Empire armed forces, and the power to appoint local commissioners to collectivise local resources for the people. Socialism in two countries, not one however (suggesting Socalism in India, and Socalism in Africa as satilite states of Socalism with respect to local custom; the Soveit Union being 'European' Socalism).
ONLY IF we begin aligning this way.
Point of threat:
Chinese/America; war reparations will not be paid to an inept Chinese regime such as headed by Chiang that strive for full Chinese independence. Essentially, no ex-post aid will be sent to China, unless Japan is forced by direct occupation. However ex-ante aid can be sent, since Empire auspice can directly insure it is spent on humanitarian needs, without portions being appropriated to re-arm China against Japan.
Allies/Soviets; Empire military industrial complex
Not to be used until 1945, or if we don't retain parity (i.e. don't bluff)
Note that the Empire has modern weapons with strategic scope and is well placed to continue such developments into the future and continue the war(s) indefinatly and the peoples esprit to fight is undeterred.
Allies; technology sharing with the soviets (see above)
*i.e. non puppet. Independent = puppet
Note: It is to suggest, such principles of involvement, and for the other great powers to deliberate on our positions. Overall, we should stress that the Empire as a whole is worth more as a friend, then being fought over in war, just to be broken up into lots of separate bits. To prevent alienating both Stalin and the Allied leaders, we should insinuate how a power vacuum from collapse of the Empire will leave one of the two power blocs a stronger party, either the Allies surround the Soviet Union, or the Soviet Union in defacto control over the world island. Thus trying to prevent an allience of the Soviets and Allies.
[OOC:
We call the Cairo/Tehran Conference etc. with the aim of discussing the world following the fall of the Euro-axis, Japans commitment to self-determinism and the Americans opposition to it, keeping the peace in Mongolia and the future of occupied colonial states.
Since we are not allied with the Euro-axis, and we are the dominant power in Asia (unlike Chiang was historically was at the time of Cairo), it makes a fair amount of sense of us being a party (and there would be non of the diplomatic issue with Chiang vis a vis Japan-Soviet relations). Not only that there is also the fact that the Allied '2nd front' in Europe failed. Stalin will be looking for reasons to distrust the allies, even with their fighting in Spain. Hence he will want more assurances that we shall abide by the NAP allowing him to focus on Europe following the Allies failure. The Americans will feel entitled following their successes, but also committed ideologically. They started the war against warmongering, therefore they cannot refuse to meet the conference without loosing face just before their elections, thus loosing legitimacy. The British will be worried about the fact we have basically single handedly destroyed the bulk of their navy down to that of a 3rd rate power from 1st and occupied a vast chunk of their Empire, this would under any other conditions have infuriated them not to attend, but because of their declared stance to stand by the Americans and the entire Allied bloc, they are effectively forced to attend if the Americans do. Combined, the Allies can't not turn up, because otherwise we are talking in effective secret with Stalin and might be forming some kind of 'unholy alliance' carving up spheres of power.
All together there is a very byzantine intrigue of power in the balance at the moment, and we actually have some geopolitical power cards to play.
Cybvep would you be interested in creating such an event?
Also if I get some time tonight I'll sort out a better attack plan for the rest of Indonesia. ATM I'm sat on boxes and suitcases and things that need to be unpacked, and in the next couple days got to sort out unpacking etc. then Monday/Tuesday change of address stuff.]