Sri Lanka would mean a forward base similar to Hawaii. The UK just can not mount a reasonable attack if they have to go around it. However, we do not have the number of vessels neccessary to hold both these outposts.
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Just wanted to pass along how impressed i am with this post by Baltasar detailing his Plan for the Navy including all your builds, your research, flavor images and commentary. Not only is it really well organized but it clearly took a lot of effort to assemble. This is the kind of stuff that makes this AAR a really great read.
And Cybvep, your charts here giving some information on the Japanese Army are really great (I'm always a sucker for clear, informative charts). Sometimes nothing can replace the information communicated in a clear graphic. You're inspiring me to make some charts of my own.
And Cybvep, your charts here giving some information on the Japanese Army are really great (I'm always a sucker for clear, informative charts). Sometimes nothing can replace the information communicated in a clear graphic. You're inspiring me to make some charts of my own.
I agree, I liked the structure of the post as well
.Sounds good, I love your AAR
. I like military statistics in general. The epilogue will have a lot of them! I tend to spend a lot of time checking RL data concerning WWII.
I'm more optimistic about the Euro-axis and give them a fighting 12:1 odds of still pulling off a strategic stalemate. It really all centres around Gibraltar and if the Allies get over stacked and where the Germans are at when they start running out of MP. If they are still in Russia, then the German front tends to collapse badly, but if they did worse overall, and it starts to happen in Poland, then the rivers there can allow the Germans to actually still survive for a good year or two right into the '46-'47.
On the other hand, if the Allies can open another front, or the Russians press hard the battle for Spain could be in flux again and eventually lead to a defeat from forces spread too thin.
Annoyingly there are some pieces of knowledge we have, like the atomic bomb which to RP effectively one has to ignore because really the Japanese wouldn't know about them, our reasoning can be based on the fact that in the 'alternate history' Japan has its version of SOE working in America and China, and we have kept up with encryption and decryption research. Similarly the way how jets and rockets came of use in the Cold War era. This gives us an advantage in knowing how to come out of the war in a strong position.
I believe it will be difficult to call in the end, because one or two bad sea battles and its game over for us at sea. I believe we've been lucky so far. Historically, Japan lost the initiative at Midway, and Pearl Harbour was a boon. In this AH, we didn't have a Pearl Harbour, but we've had two-three Midways keeping us with initiative at sea. Hence really what this all comes down to is we have been luckily to retain our Pacific position.
In China there are other considerations. Historically the Japanese didn't have the support of various Chinese groups, nor did they improved their armed forces that much. We have done both, therefore in the spirit of things, I believe the hopeful Chinese 'win' will reflect the fact that our AH Japan was much better equip to fight in China and overall prevail.
There are some points that are ahistorical however, our improvements in the army, mean that we neglected bomber, submarine, carrier and armour technologies. Furthermore we are taking rocketry programs further than historical Japan. Which is fair, and I think very well reflects the fact that their is a 'balanced level' here. We have focused in areas historical Japan didn't, and so we have different strengths and advantages, but no overall 'super buff'.
We pay for having a different strategy by not being as belligerent, and not being so expansive in the Pacific theatre. Overall reflecting a more 'moderate' strategy which would more closely follow the historical IJNs approach. Indeed, I feel that our faction overall often appears to dominate foreign policy and I have tried to keep my RP in step with the concept of strategic denial which was my namesakes strategy. Meaning that in terms of game politics we might suggest the IJN are the ones with the overall power in the clique rather than the army generals. Thus a historical role reversal.
On the plus side, our generals are far better than the historical ones as well, since blunders in supply or wasted research in tankettes has not taken place. So on that note what everything appears to form is a 'balanced power level', but with vastly superior direction of that power because we have the information not to fall into historical blunders. Thus giving us the edge we have enjoyed.
Overall, for all I talk up the Japanese position, in terms of RP we are still significantly weak. In reality Japan had no chance at ever creating the co-prosperity sphere, and even with all the edge we have had in this game, concessions in the face of nuclear weapons or Soviet invaison are in principle untenable in the epilogue. Because we haven't researched nuclear weapons to be 'near the ability to create' nuclear weapons, then the Americans gaining the bomb over us would in effect call the war at that stage because it might be several years for Japan to build its own bombs, by which point large parts of the pacific might already be 'glow craters'.
Still, early nuclear weapons, had they been used, would have been utterly useless at a tactical level we can see with retrospect. Not only would have fighters been major prioritised to take out bombers, the cost of individual bombs would have likely made their use very difficult unless you already ruled the skies. So while the atomic weapons are 'strong spice' for the Americans, they would only be capable of significantly reducing the Japanese will to resist if they could deliver them to home targets to destroy home industry. In that respect they aren't 'war ender' weapons at first glance, but in the long term would make Japan’s position untenable.
Similarly a Soviet invasion even will everything we have done would again in principle be a death knell because China would be in ruins following this war and sooner or later would collapse...and with that the Japanese position on the mainland. While the nuclear showdown between Japan and Stalin would be a long time coming the war exhaustion for the Japanese, Koreans, Manchurians etc. would become absolute more from a point of a view of the scale of the fronts which would end up being about 3 to 4 times the size of Europe, involving further tens of millions in loss of life. With Soviet industry so far removed from these fronts, but Japan’s placement so close. Japan is in the strategically weaker position.
Thus any armistice will come with such knowledge that Japan will have to make concessions because she will always be strategically weaker than the Allied or Soviet power blocs in futher protracted struggle.
Before I ramble too much, the pacific will be luck if we can retain position. With the Soviets we may be able to negotiate a strong position via RP, but we might also end up at war with them. In such a case long term Japan is fairly doomed to retain the Empire, but might be able to keep Korea in any settlements. On the other-hand a détente or local victory with Stalin could result in Japan coming through with holding onto the Empire in China.
These are big unknowns, either Japan will be utterly defeated in comparison to her starting position, or might scrape though the almost impossible to actually forge the co-prosperity sphere. Half-way houses, however I do not believe are in the spirit of the RP element however.
On the other hand, if the Allies can open another front, or the Russians press hard the battle for Spain could be in flux again and eventually lead to a defeat from forces spread too thin.
Annoyingly there are some pieces of knowledge we have, like the atomic bomb which to RP effectively one has to ignore because really the Japanese wouldn't know about them, our reasoning can be based on the fact that in the 'alternate history' Japan has its version of SOE working in America and China, and we have kept up with encryption and decryption research. Similarly the way how jets and rockets came of use in the Cold War era. This gives us an advantage in knowing how to come out of the war in a strong position.
I believe it will be difficult to call in the end, because one or two bad sea battles and its game over for us at sea. I believe we've been lucky so far. Historically, Japan lost the initiative at Midway, and Pearl Harbour was a boon. In this AH, we didn't have a Pearl Harbour, but we've had two-three Midways keeping us with initiative at sea. Hence really what this all comes down to is we have been luckily to retain our Pacific position.
In China there are other considerations. Historically the Japanese didn't have the support of various Chinese groups, nor did they improved their armed forces that much. We have done both, therefore in the spirit of things, I believe the hopeful Chinese 'win' will reflect the fact that our AH Japan was much better equip to fight in China and overall prevail.
There are some points that are ahistorical however, our improvements in the army, mean that we neglected bomber, submarine, carrier and armour technologies. Furthermore we are taking rocketry programs further than historical Japan. Which is fair, and I think very well reflects the fact that their is a 'balanced level' here. We have focused in areas historical Japan didn't, and so we have different strengths and advantages, but no overall 'super buff'.
We pay for having a different strategy by not being as belligerent, and not being so expansive in the Pacific theatre. Overall reflecting a more 'moderate' strategy which would more closely follow the historical IJNs approach. Indeed, I feel that our faction overall often appears to dominate foreign policy and I have tried to keep my RP in step with the concept of strategic denial which was my namesakes strategy. Meaning that in terms of game politics we might suggest the IJN are the ones with the overall power in the clique rather than the army generals. Thus a historical role reversal.
On the plus side, our generals are far better than the historical ones as well, since blunders in supply or wasted research in tankettes has not taken place. So on that note what everything appears to form is a 'balanced power level', but with vastly superior direction of that power because we have the information not to fall into historical blunders. Thus giving us the edge we have enjoyed.
Overall, for all I talk up the Japanese position, in terms of RP we are still significantly weak. In reality Japan had no chance at ever creating the co-prosperity sphere, and even with all the edge we have had in this game, concessions in the face of nuclear weapons or Soviet invaison are in principle untenable in the epilogue. Because we haven't researched nuclear weapons to be 'near the ability to create' nuclear weapons, then the Americans gaining the bomb over us would in effect call the war at that stage because it might be several years for Japan to build its own bombs, by which point large parts of the pacific might already be 'glow craters'.
Still, early nuclear weapons, had they been used, would have been utterly useless at a tactical level we can see with retrospect. Not only would have fighters been major prioritised to take out bombers, the cost of individual bombs would have likely made their use very difficult unless you already ruled the skies. So while the atomic weapons are 'strong spice' for the Americans, they would only be capable of significantly reducing the Japanese will to resist if they could deliver them to home targets to destroy home industry. In that respect they aren't 'war ender' weapons at first glance, but in the long term would make Japan’s position untenable.
Similarly a Soviet invasion even will everything we have done would again in principle be a death knell because China would be in ruins following this war and sooner or later would collapse...and with that the Japanese position on the mainland. While the nuclear showdown between Japan and Stalin would be a long time coming the war exhaustion for the Japanese, Koreans, Manchurians etc. would become absolute more from a point of a view of the scale of the fronts which would end up being about 3 to 4 times the size of Europe, involving further tens of millions in loss of life. With Soviet industry so far removed from these fronts, but Japan’s placement so close. Japan is in the strategically weaker position.
Thus any armistice will come with such knowledge that Japan will have to make concessions because she will always be strategically weaker than the Allied or Soviet power blocs in futher protracted struggle.
Before I ramble too much, the pacific will be luck if we can retain position. With the Soviets we may be able to negotiate a strong position via RP, but we might also end up at war with them. In such a case long term Japan is fairly doomed to retain the Empire, but might be able to keep Korea in any settlements. On the other-hand a détente or local victory with Stalin could result in Japan coming through with holding onto the Empire in China.
These are big unknowns, either Japan will be utterly defeated in comparison to her starting position, or might scrape though the almost impossible to actually forge the co-prosperity sphere. Half-way houses, however I do not believe are in the spirit of the RP element however.
The intention was never to repeat history but to create an AAR that would take place in a semi-historical environment and face the players with similar challenges as RL Japan faced. I am very proud of the results, because it appears that we are concerned over similar things as RL Japan and there are enough divergences to make things interesting .
As far as the future is concerned, we have a chance to get better results than IRL, but obviously we won't paint the world yellow...
EDIT: I'm not worried about us knowing about nukes etc., because we have a developed spy network in the USA and good decryption techs (probably much better than RL Japan) and TBH even if I told you to ignore nukes, you would still use the RL knowledge about them in your strategies indirectly. Still, hindsight in this case is not a big deal, because it's not that keeping the enemy away from the home industry is a bad strategy in itself. Even if we discount nukes, there is always regular strategic bombing...
.As far as the future is concerned, we have a chance to get better results than IRL, but obviously we won't paint the world yellow...
EDIT: I'm not worried about us knowing about nukes etc., because we have a developed spy network in the USA and good decryption techs (probably much better than RL Japan) and TBH even if I told you to ignore nukes, you would still use the RL knowledge about them in your strategies indirectly. Still, hindsight in this case is not a big deal, because it's not that keeping the enemy away from the home industry is a bad strategy in itself. Even if we discount nukes, there is always regular strategic bombing...
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I don't believe that Yamamotos assumption is correct. Russia relied heavily on Land and Lease during the war and was only able to produce that many weapons because the Allies provided them with commodities. Take that away and Russia faces a situation where she does have plenty of weapons, but not sufficient food. There were food shortages all over Europe post war and that was even with massive Allied help. If Stalin wished to wage war on Japan at this stage in this game, he'd face the very real threat of famines through his realm. Famine means unrest, unrest threatens his grip on power. Worse, the infrastructure in Siberia and China is extremely bad, so whatever they send there will only come as a trickle.
The western Allies basically lost their fleets (thanks to the stupidity of the AI, not neccessarily thanks to our brilliant use of force), though the US have the IC to rebuild it, the British can not and for the time being, their losses are irreplaceable. The US, even if they have nukes, do not have the means to hurt Japan right now and their casulties are mounting. They have better things to do than continue to wage a war of agression.
As it is, we can negotiate from as strong position a position as we can reasonably hope for, especiallyif once we reconquer Wake, Midway, Hawaii.
The western Allies basically lost their fleets (thanks to the stupidity of the AI, not neccessarily thanks to our brilliant use of force), though the US have the IC to rebuild it, the British can not and for the time being, their losses are irreplaceable. The US, even if they have nukes, do not have the means to hurt Japan right now and their casulties are mounting. They have better things to do than continue to wage a war of agression.
As it is, we can negotiate from as strong position a position as we can reasonably hope for, especially
The Allies are constantly supplying the Soviets with the Lend-Lease stuff, so the issue is rather academic. Moreover, Ukraine mostly escaped the destruction of war in our AAR, so the Soviet industry and agriculture is actually in a better shape than IRL. IRL logistical support (trucks and locomotives) was much more important than food IMO. Also, IRL Lend-Lease really kicked in during 1943-1945. By that time the war was already lost by the Axis.
Who said that the Soviets won't expand their infrastructure in Siberia? We have no idea what they are doing TBH.
The USA has already rebuilt their navy as far as we know... The British will have more trouble with that, I agree.
Which was supplied via L&L.
They started to provide war material (planes etc) by then en masse, but before that, they supplied small arms, ammunition, food, medical supplies, transport vehicles etc. Without that, the Russians would have had a harder time surely.
I was referring to manpower losses. Men drafted into the horde of the Red Army can not work the fields.
Yep, the USA did that. But they still have to do without the ~100 ships they lost already. If they had those on top of what they have now, we'd be in deep(er) trouble.
I didn't claim otherwise, I just said that it was more important than food IMO.
That doesn't mean that the final outcome would have been different, though...
Sure, but we don't know how many men they drafted and how high are their losses. Most likely, they are doing better than IRL. Also, you never draft everyone, anyway. Worker-to-soldier ratio is a big deal.
Guys, I don't know how to say this, but... well, let's just say that my parents gave my small cousin access to my computer for several hours. The result: my whole HOI3 folder deleted.
This means that the AAR is dead.
This is not a joke.
This means that the AAR is dead.
This is not a joke.
http://www.recovermyfiles.com/
?
It's not always the end of the world...unless he's gone and reformated the hard drive or something as drastic as file sector overwrites
However this is one of the reasons to always keep backups of key files....and a time to get very angry at your parents for letting another person use your computer without your authorisation if that was the case. Hell I remember a time like that when I came back and found MSN and viruses and all manner of spyware and crap on my old machine because my mum had let somebody staying with us at the time use my machine for the internet. I was not amused at the 2 hours spent cleaning the machine up.
Anyhow, give it an attempt to see if the data is still there on the HDD and hasn't been overwritten yet, it would be a shame if that was the case. If it turns out to be the case...well giant baby aliens came and deleted the matrix \0.o/!!!
?
It's not always the end of the world...unless he's gone and reformated the hard drive or something as drastic as file sector overwrites
However this is one of the reasons to always keep backups of key files....and a time to get very angry at your parents for letting another person use your computer without your authorisation if that was the case. Hell I remember a time like that when I came back and found MSN and viruses and all manner of spyware and crap on my old machine because my mum had let somebody staying with us at the time use my machine for the internet. I was not amused at the 2 hours spent cleaning the machine up.
Anyhow, give it an attempt to see if the data is still there on the HDD and hasn't been overwritten yet, it would be a shame if that was the case. If it turns out to be the case...well giant baby aliens came and deleted the matrix \0.o/!!!
I have no idea what he has done exactly, but when I started checking my files I noticed several new folders and several old folders gone. I also started receiving an annoying pop-up from a porn site and my anti-virus was disabled for some reason. I've just checked some of the other games and it seems that some other files were f*cked up, too, because many of them are not working. Unfortunately, the recovery tricks didn't help, at least not in case of HOI3.
Don't let kids anywhere near your computer. I should have used a password.
Don't let kids anywhere near your computer. I should have used a password.
Well, if he deleted school documents, he could've always gotten in trouble. Sorry about what happened mate. Maybe you want to try a Black ICE interactive AAR?
no one else on the team has a savegame file? this is really a bummer but don't give up before exhausting all your options.
but don't give up before exhausting all your options.
wtf...
You checked trash bin?
You should tell his parents what kind of porn site you cousin prefers
You checked trash bin?
You should tell his parents what kind of porn site you cousin prefers
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no one else on the team has a savegame file? this is really a bummer
The point was the he, and only he, was playing actually with us acting from the ouside.
Very unfortunate, this was a really good AARI can't say I would have taken the news very well if it had happened to me :glare:
Congratulations however on the AAR, I would love to see and participate in a similar style AAR in the future
