1841: Si vis pacem
[H]e for one was prepared to give a cordial sanction to the proposition now made as to the military force of this country; giving it, that was to say, in the firm conviction and reliance that the demand now made by the executive government did not exceed the exigencies of the case. At the same time, he should be exceedingly sorry to see any increase of the military force of this country which could afford a pretext, or any rational ground, for foreign powers to increase their military establishments also. He should be sorry, indeed, for us to set an example to other powers of an unnecessary amount of military force.
State opening and Emperor's speech
The Cabinet approached 1841 in an attitude of contentment that bordered on complacency. The tariff system had been endorsed by the electorate and had proved a great financial success. To that end, the Finance Minister was able to announce a further cut in tax levels; he did so to the cheers of Court-aligned deputies and sullen but subdued retorts from members of the opposition.
The consumption tax on the lower orders was to be reduced to 30 per cent: a level thought sufficient to provide a continued positive balance to the Budget, albeit at a vastly reduced rate. However, with government coffers containing nearly half a million pounds, the Cabinet were confident that this was enough to cover any shortfall.
Military readiness
The year also saw the Empire make good its losses in the Second Modenan war. Having reached the Ile de Bourbon in January, the transports had been allowed to make the long voyage to Morocco without an escort. The fast-sailing clippers could outpace the more heavily armed warships, making for a shorter voyage and less need for repairs when they arrived. In wartime such a move would have been too much of a risk to contemplate, but for now Japan was at peace.
The arrival of fresh regiments brought the Japanese garrison in Europe up to 57,000 men. Milan too had begun to recover its strength after the war and could add an extra 20,000 soldiers to any conflict. However, for now the Empire was content to maintain a watchful peace.
With the reinforcements came a new commander to replace General Suzuki, who had been recalled to the War Office to serve as Commander of the Army. The new man, General Nozu, had already acquired a reputation as a leader of men and was considered almost as fine a soldier as Suzuki.
Not easily pleased, General Nozu was famously abusive to staff officers who failed to live up to his high expectations. Ambassador Teramachi made it his business to keep contacts between the general and his Milanese counterparts to a minimum for fear of the effect Nozu's temper might have on the two countries' relations.
General Kuroki, the commander of the Army of Southern China also retired in 1841 and to say that his replacement raised a few eyebrows would be an understatement. Society gossip had it that General Arisugawa had once been confined to a lunatic asylum by his family, but regardless of the truth of that rumour there was no denying his single-minded approach to destroying the enemy.
The Interior Minister had questioned the decision to appoint General Arisugawa to the largest army Japan possessed, but the Minister of War had defended him as the best available candidate for the job. If the fact that the two men were personal friends was mentioned, it was certainly not recorded in the minutes of the meeting.
Japan's military position was further strengthened by the completion of eleven ships of the line. The new ships were the first addition to the navy for decades and made use of iron bracing to stiffen the hull and improve sailing characteristics. The new ships mounted 78 guns apiece, for the most part trusty 32-pounders, but they also carried four massive 68-pound carronades on the gundecks for close-quarters action.
More important even than the new ships, the upgrade of Japanese naval facilities which had begun five years ago was brought to completion. Japan now had a network of bases throughout the Pacific and Indian Oceans and the new dockyards of Sardinia allowed the European fleet to be repaired in situ.
With the army and navy in a better position than ever before, Japan could tackle future crises from a position of strength. Despite this, the feeling of most of the Cabinet was that it was reckless to seek war for its own sake. Japan would keep the peace, providing her rivals did the same.
Coalition building
If Japan was to remain the arbiter of European affairs, then the Empire needed allies. Relations with France remained excellent, but Charles VIII's ministers would not hear of an alliance that could bring them into conflict with Austria. The memories of the Franco-Russian war were still fresh in the French national consciousness and unless Japan would agree to helping the de la Tour's regain the territories lost in that conflict then no agreement was possible. While no friend of Russia's, the Cabinet believed that instability in Eastern Europe could further strengthen Austria's hand, and the Foreign Ministry was asked to look elsewhere for aid.
All the while, Japanese diplomats had been finalising the treaty of amity between the Empire and the newly-proclaimed Kingdom of Milan. Under the terms of the treaty Japan would gain priority access to Milanese products and both countries would enter into a defensive pact.
It was hoped that the agreement might also serve to restrain the ambitions of King Ascanio, although Duke Teramachi had written to the Foreign Minister warning that the treaty might encourage the monarch to indulge in yet greater aggression.
With the Milanese treaty concluded, diplomatic attention turned to the Duchy of Magdeburg, whose territory was bordered by Austrian possessions to the north and south. Gaining the support of Duke Ruprecht II would give Japan the possibility of a second front against Austria.
It was thought that an agreement would take more than two years to negotiate, but at present the situation was not considered urgent and the Foreign Minister was told to work towards securing a treaty as he saw fit.
Foreign affairs
Perhaps the most unexpected foreign policy development of the year was the news that Russia had established a foothold at the mouth of the Mashkai river and further east and west along the coast of Kalat.
Although the state of war between the remnants of the Timurid horde and the Russian Empire had been known to the Cabinet, it had been expected that the Russians would focus on gaining territory adjacent to their existing possessions. The appearance of the czar's forces on the edge of the Indian Ocean was an unpleasant surprise, and some of the more belligerent in the Diet muttered darkly about invoking the Higashiyama doctrine to expel the Europeans. Prime minister Ito dismissed this possibility for the present, but charged the Foreign Minister with closer supervision of Russian affairs.
In October the belligerence of King Zalahtinyan appeared to have finally overreached his country's modest resources as the overconfident monarch announced his intention to seize Yunnan from Qin.
The Minister of War reported that Qin could muster an army of over 60,000 troops, compared to Burma's standing army of 20,000. Relations between Japan and Qin were abysmal, largely due to the legacy of wars which had seen Qin reduced to small and divided state, and the Cabinet unanimously voted in favour of granting a subsidy to the Burmese for the duration of the war. Suggestions that Japan should intervene if King Zalahtinyan's venture looked doomed to failure were given consideration, but no definite conclusion was arrived at while the war was still in its opening phases.
In Europe the peace that had followed the end of the Austro-Bohemian war was shattered by revolution. In Italy, Modenan born adventurer Giuseppe Garibaldi had returned from exile in La Plata to raise the standard of Italian nationalism in Urbino.
Taking advantage of the weakness of the Holy Roman Empire, Garibaldi and six thousand 'Redshirts' overran the Duchy of Urbino, causing Duchess Lucrezia Visconti to flee Ancona for Rome. Duke Teramachi's eventual acquiescence to the Milanese treaty was in part driven by his concern to strengthen the new kingdom in the face of revolts from within. In Japan itself the Cabinet believed the ambassador was too pessimistic as to the rebel's chances, and in any case the Army of Italy would serve as the ultimate guarantor of order in the peninsula.
France too was not immune to the wave of revolution that had gripped Europe. Rebels in the northwest had seized control of several garrison towns, but the French government assured the Empire that they had the situation well in hand and turned down offers of assistance from Japanese troops.
In comparison to the ructions in Europe, the Cabinet could reassure themselves that their government had produced no such disturbances. True, isolated protests against Japanese rule persisted, but every state had its malcontents. So long as the Emperor reigned, surely no-one subject would take arms against him.
Domestic affairs
In part, the Cabinet's belief was borne out of their need for such sentiments to be true. The unemployment of previous years was showing no sign of abating, and the shortage of machine parts merely exacerbated the issue.
According to the Interior Minister, nearly 400,000 craftsmen were without work and these numbers were increasingly daily. As the Minister of War pointed out, there were two unemployed men for every Japanese soldier. True, the labouring classes were unarmed and uncoordinated, but should agent provocateurs take control the results could be devastating.
For this reason the Cabinet was forced to maintain employment levels no matter the cost. The election campaign had struck a heavy blow against canned food production, as the government had been forced to cancel contracts in an effort to improve soldiers’ food.
Now the Cabinet was faced with picking up the bill to keep these factories open, or face consigning tens of thousands more labourers to unemployment. Neither outcome was particularly palatable, but the government reasoned that it was best to limit the present crisis as far as possible and to put off a reckoning until the situation was better in hand.
End of Year
The beginning of 1842 saw the liberals make modest gains in the Diet. Ordinarily such an event would be of minor concern, but the Cabinet had been perturbed by the revolts in Europe and the possibility of similar unrest spreading to the discontented poor of the Empire was a remote but nightmarish possibility. Until 1842 the government's chief concerns had been the Restorationists and the Isolationists. Now it seemed that there was a much more insidious threat to the peace and order Japan had enjoyed.