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well I'm no expert in PoN warfare, but I don't think you'll take Perm in winter given the basic advantages that fall to the defensive side
if the Russians in Ufa are cossacks (looks like) that may be a feasible gain (they may well have evade orders).
So, for what is worth, I'd snag Ufa (if I could) and stop. Go over to the defense to the end of winter and let the Russians suffer the org hit in moving to combat plus the bad weather malus for attacking in snow.
I'm saying this off experience with WiA/RoP and a little with RUS - and suspect the basics hold into PoN
The winter situation is indeed driven by supplies. It is not as obvious in the image, but Ufa is the only city of level 3 or more taken - although an objective, Ekaterinburg is a town, as is Magnitogorsk. Perm is level 5, Sarapol, Kama and the one between are level 3 cities or 4, enough with depots to perhaps sustain the 4 Banners on the map and their ancillary units without many wagon trains. In addition, Russians in Perm threaten Serov, Ekaterinburg, and Ufa. If held, a single force at Perm and one at Ufa can lock the northern end of the line.
There are 4 Banners on the map in the Urals which when rested with ancillaries will have over 600 power. The Shantung Traditional (not musket-armed) Banner at Ufa can drive off the besiegers, or or the Kwangsi Traditional Banner in Magnitogorsk can help crush it if moving to Ufa rather than west to try to take another town. The cautious course is for Kwangsi Banner to guard Ufa. The bold is for a small garrison to stay at Ufa and Kwangsi Banner to reinforce against Perm or try for Sarapol or Kama while Shantung Banner joins at Perm unless it already moved into Sarapol.
Shantung Banner supporting a movement from Ekaterinburg, maybe under Guanwen, leaving Hupeh Banner behind to recover, would put near 400 power against not more than 250 power of the Russians. A Russian field victory is unlikely given past performance and Guanwen attacking vs. Muraviev's dearth of defensive skill. A rout across the river or a retreat into the city would both be acceptable, either could be followed up with further Russian losses or a surrender.
An acceptable peace returning the lands taken by Russia and establishing a security frontier is well off. With extended claims on, the Russians have offered half a dozen border territories to China based on a warscore near 70 (the conquered lands are not worth very much in building warscore).
Will you have the supplies to go on the offensive in the winter? It seems that a few of your formations would benefit from more rest and supply, to recover cohesion, so it sounds risky to me (then again, taking the offensive against the Russians in the first place seemed risky to me - good thing you didn't listen to me, since you're now raiding along the Volga - definitely not bad at all).
Being by nature very cautious, I would secure Ufa (secure it further, by driving off the besiegers, I mean) and leave it at that, as long as your Banners are in positions where they can regain cohesion over the winter.
In the campaign so far, how aggressive have the Russians been in the winter? Can you expect them to wait out the snow, if you do the same, or will they seize the initiative?
Finally, not a piece of advice or a question, but merely the observation that you really went on a tear today. That's, what, four updates on one day?
The turns were played over time, but I was working on ways to do images and trying to sort the different chains of events for a better narrative. GIMP is free but complex for markups. I thought it necessary to convey the specific situation.
The troops could regain cohesion in the cities without much overcrowding, but getting supplies to support 4 banners is the question in the Urals. The supplies and the capacity to generate more is in the Russian-held cities. Left as they are, the Russians would be fools not to build up over the winter, seize Serov, and knock the Qing out of Ufa and Ekaterinburg by spring. So an offensive plan to at least secure supplies seems necessary. The Russians have been mildly aggressive, but until the Urals they were greatly outnumbered on the front line.
Some kind of offensive plan to secure quarters seems required while time and supplies permit.
Unlike some minors, who lack as full a range of unit types as would be historically appropriate, as well as fewer decision options (like no grand canal, no road building unless by event I added that allows it occasionally etc.) and special events, China has a full range of appropriate units - at least for the first decade - and has a substantial number of events reflecting the significant role the region played in the imperialist age. It can even establish Vassals, though the limited tools make that a long process which is easily outpaced by any western power with colonial abilities.
China is also short on diplomats, properly reflecting the tributary nature of its approach to other countries.
The colonial, economic, diplomatic, and military games are all fun - in a minor without much in the first 3 areas, one does get the urge to send out the troops.
I am planning to continue this AAR with the post transferred to the AGEOD AAR forum. Any technical help in making such a transfer would be much appreciated!
Since I paused this game, updates to the game have raised the Perm Russian Combat Power from around 250 to over 300, but the essential situation is unchanged.
Guanwen has concluded that the most dangerous thing the Russians could do is to take Ufa, which they may attempt as it appears weak. Guanwen's own heroic Hupeh veterans need time to recover cohesion before an assault. Because Zuo is as capable as Guanwen when on defense, he will remain at Ekaterinburg on the defense in command of Hupeh banner while yielding his own troops to Guanwen to take to Ufa and secure that central position. It simply remains to decide whether to mass the southerly Shantung and Kwangsi banners at Ufa (building strength for a direct move on Perm and probe to Sarapol) or send one or both west to seize apparently undefended cities while Guanwen marches to Ufa, centrally located between all the provinces involved. Although he may not be able to march to the sound of the guns, a strong position in Ufa should keep the Russians fixed in Perm.
I executed the turn and it ran through the battle of Ufa (easy win) and crashed/locked at the French AI stage being shown at the bottom. Critical error shown here from MAIN log
05:49:45 (Reporting) TMediaLibrarian.GetMediaInfo: Unable to find MediaInfo for image: bottomleft_banner_tch
05:49:45 (Reporting) TMediaLibrarian.GetMediaInfo: Unable to find MediaInfo for image:
05:49:45 (Reporting) TThing.SetBitmap: Unable to find MediaInfo for image: BottomLeft_Banner_TCH
05:49:45 (Reporting) TSlaveThing.SetBitmap: Unable to find MediaInfo for image:
05:49:45 (Reporting) TThing.SetBitmap: Unable to find MediaInfo for image: yourFormBack.png
05:54:08 (Reporting) Starting Hosting Phase Turn 239
05:54:08 (Reporting) 1850 - Grand Campaign 1859, Late Dec. (T: 2640) loaded
05:54:08 (Reporting) All gamesim data loaded in: 23184 ms
05:54:08 (Reporting) Host: Starting AIs.
05:54:08 [Critical ] TAIAgent.GetDefinition Erroneous DefUID HostUID 100702
Ah crap. I'm absolutely no use at all when it comes to PON's under-the-hood goings-on, but I'm sure there are competent people over at AGEOD (obvious statement, I know). I hope this is not a case of the system finally catching up to the fact you're playing a modded-in nation and not being able to handle that.
There was precious little modding, and most of that was tinkering with events still well in the future based on further research - started with SwitchFaction and managed with that.
I speculate that it's just different updates of the game where a DefUID reference was added, removed or changed.
I must confess I did it the grim and boring way. Open each post, as if to edit it, copy it and paste it into a new post on the AGEOD forum. Thats why I brought over the comments/responses using the post where I tended to respond to feedback.
2Coats suggested a quicker way but it also means you have to rebuild all the links to the images and even just for text leaves you with no formatting. If you want to adopt that, use the 'thread tools' button at the top of the page and then select 'printable version'. You can then just cut and paste a lot quicker.
Looking forward to seeing this on the AGE forums, it was the AAR that convinced me to really just get on with playing and learning PoN as opposed to squealing with panic every time I opened it.
