Pride of the Middle Kingdom - Grand Campaign

loki100 said:

how do you find the play experience with the non-scripted countries ... apart from a few things probably designed to make life harder for one of the player led states this sounds quite in-depth with a lot of challenges

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A PON country is like a spacecraft - there's a lot more fitting out for a manned flight than an unmanned one, but either way I expect it should be able to arrive at the destination. If China can do what it did or could have done, that's the goal.

The player as pilot is more likely to look for unexpected ways to get there, and want guidance and flavor from relevant events. As I wrote in the Playing Spain thread, there are certain things to look for in an enjoyable country.

Trying Mexico, there was not that much to do. It had no colonial game potential and would spend years hustling Mfg Goods to set up a factory or get a Collection Point in place for key structures. It was boxed in by the US and could only expand in Central America or by foreign investment. Still playable for what it was, except for the fatal problem that the military units were frozen (not inactive etc., just frozen). Given the mischief a player or AI might get into, perhaps for the best.

China's got game. Unless unlocked by events or technology, it has no ability to build roads or enact decrees or laws - but that is easily justified by history and its non-player status. Ruthlessness has a simple way of dealing with unrest. China has a colonial game, with a painfully narrow range of options, but, as I hope to see when I dare, sufficient for its purpose of vassalization if one can engineer the CP level to do so. In PON you want the feel of running a country and dealing with its issues, and here it is - plus enough context to role play the Empire's unique situation and cultural attitudes, or something resembling those. China is I think a good candidate to be made playable, but the danger is the sheer volume of events and possible alternatives to deal with in Chinese history - it would really require player participation in making it real.

But it's fun as it is. And if I get the nuances wrong, well, this isn't history, it's mystory.

Hengzhou Siege Broken – Night Devils Seize Changsha – Yangtze Line Breached!

June 1852: Waiting for Relief

Of great interest in Europe, the London Protocol in June 1852 established the necessity of the existence of the Danish Federation and recognition of the personal union of Denmark and Schleswig-Holstein through a common monarch. The ability of the Imperial ministry to comprehend the nature thereof, if not the subtleties of Teutonic politics, is strong evidence that they should be entitled to recruit a larger class of diplomats.

The rest of China was focused on more tangible matters. Guanwen’s siege of Hengzhou was broken by Taiping reinforcements and he was forced to retreat with substantial losses. Of his 29,000 men and 30 cannons, Guanwen lost 4900 men, the old-style Fukien Banner suffering much more than the modern Hupeh troops, but an advantage at range was not sufficient to match the fierce Devils at close quarters. Devil Xiao’s 28,000 men had 54 cannon to support them, and their commander’s first fire ability said to be born of dark rituals of witchcraft was as usual highly disruptive to his opponents. Xiao lost only 1400 men, mostly the “reinforcements” corps.

Guanwen was cut off from Shaozhou and tumbled back east toward Ganzhou where Her Chyun’s 13,000 men and 24 guns were posted defensively covering Fukien. The battle revealed that Xiao had 4 armies with 13 combat units in Hengzhou, including his clique of skilled commanders. The clear strategic need was to fix Xiao’s army in Hengzhou, preferably under an “iron ring” siege, while the weak peasant Devils were cleared from the countryside of the south. The anticipated arrival of strong northern forces would seal in Xiao. Meanwhile, to cover Xiao from the south, Guanwen in late June marched his 22,000 men and 28 cannon directly back to Shaozhou. He planned to replenish his ranks and supplies to bring his force up to full strength while awaiting action from the Yangtze Army Group.

In the west, small forces chased rebels and secured territory which was sometimes lost again later and sometimes not. The evasive Devils often retreated without loss, but in Chungking Jiang Zhou Tengso’s Shensi Banner from the north, together with the Kweichow Banner, caught and seriously damaged a large rebel detachment sufficiently for it to take the dramatic step of escaping across the Yangtze to seize the north bank town of Shunqing, breaching the river line that had been expected to contain the uprising in the south. This crossing of the Yangtze would cause considerable loss of face for the Yangtze Army Group and Yuan Shuai He Guiqing personally - the rebels would have to be pursued by Zhou to their total destruction. This incident aside, good progress was made in reducing the strength and aggressiveness of rebel bodies in the west.

For He, the first half of June was spent fixed in place reorganizing after landing at Wuchang. Thereafter Xu with his Kiangsi Banner was sent west through Changde and thereafter down through Yongchun to Baoqing while He’s main army of the Manchu Gold Banner, Mongolia Grand Banner, Honan Banner, and Mongolian Cavalry Banner plus artillery planned a march through Changsha to Hengzhou with a total of 41,000 men and 70 guns. This was a force sufficient to bring Xiao to bay, but He planned for a siege, not a bloody assault. At the same time, Zeng Guofan’s two banners with 25,000 men and 24 guns at Nanchang would pass through rural Dijan and approach Hengzhou with cautious offensive orders (they were expected to arrive after He).

As events turned, He’s column was diverted to Baoqing when Shuai Xu engaged a rebel army there and eliminated them. Zeng Guofan’s army passed through Changsha as well and besieged Xiao’s army of about double his power within Hengzhou, whereafter Changsha was unexpectedly seized by rebels lurking behind the Imperial armies.

Near the coast, the rebel forces in Jiangxi were dispersed, but these escaped down the coast into Zhejiang Province where they took Shaoxing, another considerable embarrassment for Yangtze Army Group’s containment of the insurrection. The new Cavalry Banner that had arrived from Peking at Nanchang was sent with direction to chase down all rebels near the east coast, a task for which it would prove inadequate.

Imperial Finance

While war raged in the south, the mandarins in Peking had been prompted by the financial pressure of the war on State Funds and the need to avoid any restriction of the important functions of the administration of government to adopt a reformation of the policies of taxation. For the first time, the negative reactions of the population and foreign interests to tax policies were taken into account and weighed in the balance with revenue. China imported very little and lacked a merchant fleet, so tariffs and maritime taxes were lowered to 2% to present a false but pleasing picture of Chinese openness to trade. Excise taxes, which raised nothing, were lowered to a nominal 3% as an empty gesture to the upper classes and foreign traders. Taxes on wealth and domestic trade – the sources of actual revenue – were raised on an interim wartime basis to 5% on the Census, 9% on business, and 16% on wealth and incomes.

Cage Devil Xiao!– Ghost Bandits Escape – New Uprisings – Harvest In Danger

July - August 1852:

Caging Chief Devil Xiao

Zeng Guofan having put Devil Xiao under siege, Guawen immediately advanced to reinforce the siege ring, though Her Chyun, in compliance with his orders, remained at Ganzhou to cover Fukien. He Guiqing, amid the conjunction of armies that had stalled in pillaged Baoqing, appropriated one of Jiang Zhang’s Supply Wagon trains and sent Zhang south to secure Yung An while dispatching units to Changde, rebel-controlled Changsha, and Yongzhou to seek control of those territories. Shuai Xu was fixed in place in Baoqing for a time so was left behind. The remaining 43,000 men and 82 guns of Yangtze Army set march into Hengzhou, with the fear that Xiao’s rebels might seek to defeat the converging Imperial forces in detail, or break out in force.

A battle was fought led by Guan Wen against Devil Xiao. It is not known to certainty how this came about, but it is thought that Imperial probes commenced a general battle. Zeng Guofan’s troops bore the burden for the first 3 rounds of the fight, then more troops flooded in in to press the Devils back severely, destroying several elements but leaving more than 40,000 Taiping rebels still in firm control of the Hengzhou. With good luck for the Empire, its losses were not much more and both sides lost over 4000 men. More cannon would be collected, but the plan was not to breach and assault but starve the rebels rather than endure tens of thousands more casualties to assault them.

Changsha was hard fought over early in July, but the Regulars sent were unable to wipe out the defending Devils – reinforcements easily cleared out the defenders with bombardment. Perhaps due to some miscommunication, the Yangtze Army marched to Changsha late in July to assist in the capture of that place against what turned out to be a miniscule garrison. They were thus deceived to abandon the siege of Hengzhou, only to head back at the end of the month with an offensive disposition and a total of 79,000 men, over 5000 horses, and 112 cannon.

Guanwen, who was posted to the south at Shaozhou, was surprised to hear of He’s suspension of the siege and unaware of what emergency had prompted it. For the Devils to spring forth across the countryside, however, would be a disaster, and he himself ordered a cautious advance on Hengzhou to resume a defensive siege, even though he had only 26,000 men and 22 cannon. Fortunately, the Devils, perhaps fearing a lure that would draw them from Hengzhou into a trap, had not sent out any major forces and made use of the respite just to replace some casualties. Yuan Shuai He and Yuan Shuai Guanwen thus both settled in with overwhelming force for a patient siege on opposite sides of the city and it continued quietly through the month of August.

Rebels in the West

Guan Wen’s Southwest Army Group remained responsible for securing the southwest against the Taiping and other rebels, so most of its strength was scattered in detachments and columns broadly over the country, often moving from region to region to pursue or evade the enemy and focus where the greatest risk of revolt appeared. The forces were stretched and could not occupy every region in adequate strength, and the regions most often left at risk were those without any towns, and mostly in the west.

In August there was a fresh Taiping irredentist agitation along the Guangxi coast, fresh bands of Devils emerging to besiege the modest garrisons there and chasing the garrison out of Kuangsi, the city which had long been Yuan Shuai Guanwen’s headquarters. This new outbreak was not enough to create alarm, but it emphasized the importance of destroying the Devil Xiao and his forces to free the Imperial armies for conclusive suppression operations, and the high risk if Xiao’s Devils were able to break out and provide focal points for rebel attacks.

Despite an agreement as to peace with the Yunan rebels, there was a continuing supply, and the Imperial forces did not have enough bodies of men to secure Kunming and Nanpang as well as Dali and the other less settled regions. The most dramatic incident in Yunan was the appearance of 9000 indigenous rebels before Kunming, where only the last minute arrival of the returning Yunan Banner saved their city from pillage. The defeated rebels vanished – it was believed to their camps in the Longing mountains as well as farther north.

July saw a rising of bandit rebels in Hainan who took over the port and the farms. Yuan Shuai He Guiqin, holding the Imperial writ for determining the scope of the Army Groups’ operations, designated Hainan to join Taiwan as within the scope of the Southeast Army Group and Her Chyun soon re-embarked his force at Chaozhou, leaving behind a Levy unit at Ganzhou. As seemed often the case, the navy was slow in transporting troops and Her landed and wiped out the rebels only in late August.

The Northern Devils

The embarrassing breach of the Yangtze barrier worsened, Jiang Zhou Tengso recovering Shunqing with a short battle but the remaining 5000+ peasants and regulars escaped north towards Baoning. A small mixed brigade of 1225 men in the region made a brave stand and stalemated the attackers in the countryside, but was forced to withdraw away to neighboring Hanzhong to recover. The rebels did not have the temerity to seize the town after the strong fight they had received, and were prevented from capturing it by further engagement by this enterprising detachment and then Zhou’s column in August, after which the handful of survivors escaped towards Debashan to spread their corrupt contagion. It is of note that the successful engagements of the mixed brigade were adduced to show the great superiority of firearms brigades and mounted troops in policing against local peasant uprisings. The pursuit of this band in the direction of Lanzhou proved no inconvenience, as the pursuing forces were those charged with taking up stations at Ulan Bator and its supply lines.

Rebels on the Yangtze

The intense campaigning both in small actions and large in Hunan had brought forth the traitors from the people and many of them were killed or their ardor quenched. Changsha, for example, was a hotbed of Deviltry that was ruthlessly expunged. The core of active revolt risk was reduced to a band of regions from rural Yongchun and Baoqing up to Changde on the river, then farther down the river Nanchang and Huizhou. The last three of these contained cities held with determined garrisons that suppressed the revolt risk, and when a small band appeared in one of these it soon made its way south to ungarrisonned regions.

East Coast Operations

Principal among these regions were those of Jiangxi and adjoining lands of Zhejiang and Fukien, where permanent garrisons could be spared only on the Yangtze. These provinces were incessantly bedeviled by the small bodies of peasants and regulars coordinated by the elusive Devil Shuai Lai Wenkwok (5-3-1). Yuan Shuai He Guiqing added unit after unit to the hunt to root out these traitors – everything from levies raised on the Yangtze to northern Cavalry and Jiang Zhang’s Army from Yunnan. In late August only Devil Lai’s own column appeared in action, playing the dangerous game of mouse with cat as it darted from region to region. They escaped to Hangzhou, then took Jinhua. When assailed they burned Jinhua and fled east to Hangzhou again, then in August to Shaoxing town, where at last they were caught and lost most of their men – the few hundred remaining scattered to skulk in the rice fields of Shaoxing in September. Jiang Zhang was determined to station troops in all adjacent regions to be certain of bringing the elusive Shuai to justice.

The Russian Barbarian Nuisance of Little Concern

July come and a class of 2 diplomats graduated, Amur was now ready for vassalization as the funds were available. Russia, however, held a 15% CP in the colonial capital, just enough to a allow it to place a stake to contest Imperial authority and provide a 50% change of provoking a crisis. It was not known whether it would do so, but its domination of the Turks and energetic colonization of Siberia suggested an aggressive and expansionist attitude that would not be easily dissuaded in Siberia. If opposed, to do so early before Russia could build its local strength seemed wisest. The forces to be committed in the north were the Manchurian Garrison, already moving to Harbin, and the Mongolian horse and foot banners and raiders – the raiders were already stationed near the frontier, but the others were fighting as part of the Yangtze Army Group. Additional banners would be moved into position, and small brigade-size units would be extensively used in the harsh wilds of the north.

Where the areas of Amur, Vitim and Manchuria meet there is a region where a new town arose in 1852 by the name of Nenjiang. Just one region north of Harbin, it provided an obvious strategic point to protect both the Amur and Manchuria and allow Russian communications to be severed. Conserving scarce Mfg Goods and some of the ample flow of silver from taxes, a depot was constructed in July and plans to ship Supply Wagons north as well were laid. Ulan Bator and its depot a thousand miles to the west was out of any possible supporting distance from Nenjiang, but strategically would serve as a deterrent, threat, target, or offensive base against the Russian lines of communication from the west and particularly against Irkutsk. Irkutsk was a favorite destination for Russian colonists, so a growing center that merited preventive action. It would obviously be best to take action while Russia was engaged in a European war, but that was not within China’s control. Waiting favored the Russians,s since they were actively building chains of military outposts across Siberia that would greatly restrict the movement of an opponent and require substantial forces to subjugate. As China could not respond with colonial structures of its own – only full depots and forts, or economic structures – the advantage of time was with the Russians.

The next constructions deemed necessary were a fort at Ulan Bator and at least one depot to create a logistic path to Lanzhou across the trackless miles in between (how unfortunate the inability to build a road transportation network). Pre-modern Forts require 10 Steel (available on the market) and 20 Mfg Goods (which China created at a fixed rate of 8 crates per month and were sold in the international market only from Scandinavia, to which China had no access). That would take time, and it appeared that China could not be ready for a border war before winter, which would not be a desirable time to move large armies. For the time being, regiments of fanatics were raised to serve as raiders and depot guards.

Military use of Mfg Goods cut back opportunities for economic development, but these were becoming less attractive in any case because the sites offering roads and easy construction had been taken up first, and the incremental costs of more facilities as compared to their potential production reduced enthusiasm. Rice, Tea and Silk so greatly dominated China’s available resource sites that it was inevitable that most opportunities would lie fallow, at least for decades.

Stuyvesant said:

Good luck with your plans to face the Russians - at this time, it looks like you're having enough problems just dealing with the rebels, let alone a Great Power. But, as you yourself stated, things are only getting worse vis a vis the Russians. So, good luck again. Even though I understand the necessity, I don't think I'd have the guts myself.

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Well, Peking is entitled to a role playing perspective based on its historical perceptions and strategic expectations based on the long and harsh journey that any reinforcements would need to make from Russia to Siberia. Throw in a little Sun-Tzu where possible.

If China enjoyed the latest technology, it would see in F10 that Cbt Pwr is 271 Rus, 221 GrB, 201 Pru, 176 Aus, 150 Fra, 44 USA, 39 Jap, 38 SPi. China at 913 prestige in March '53 is ahead of SPi's 602 and 12th in Prestige.

Our losses are at 165K; the only GP with significant numbers is GBr with 87K. Add in my rough guess of 90K Taiping Devils and at a quarter million it certainly is now, and may well remain, the bloodiest war of the PON 19th Century. The historical death toll, including civilians, plague, famine, was 20-30 million over 14 years.

It's a year or more to Percussion Musket tech - need to see if that is any help, and whether it is affordable in Mfg Goods terms (4 from shops, 4 from craftsmen, 1 sold to domestic market = 7 per turn to play with).

Yunnan Cleared - Xiao and Rebel Army trapped - Is Russia a paper tiger?

September 1852 to December 1852:

The Empire crushed separatist rebels in Kunming and fought or chased Taiping Devils elsewhere in a war of detachments while the prime Imperial focus was on the siege of Xiao and the main enemy army in the city of Hengzhou north of Canton. The small Imperial Levy regiments proved too shaky to stand in the open, but were often able to hold a town and wait for relief. The Regulars, especially those with firearms, were more effective, but Taiping forces that included cavalry or their own regulars required the use of forces of Warband or Banner size to defeat, depending on their level of attrition.

There was a series of small but fierce battles in the southern coastal region of Zhanjiang near Canton that was finally resolved by the arrival of Yuan Shuai Her Chyun’s column. The column escaped, led by the Devil Lai, a cunning leader who led multiple Imperial columns on a chase that ended with him being caught retreating and wiped out. Imperial arms were also favored by wiping out Devil detachments in Yibin, Kuangsi and on the south coast in small pitched battles. Imperial losses tended to be higher than those of the fierce rebels, but Imperial manpower was greater and the infantry were easily renewed.

In Beihai on the coast the Devils included a dangerous mix of cavalry, regulars and peasants that had defeated the provincial force and besieged the city, while Zuo Zongtang in Nanning and Her Chyun in Zhanjiang sat transfixed, only moving in October to engage and rout the Beihai attackers into Kuangsi before continuing his march of Southwest Army Group back to his station in Fukien. The Beihai group, which appeared to have been reinforced, proved determined and elusive. They roved abound Guangxi, defeating levy regiments repeatedly and terrorizing the countryside while pursued by regular forces they seemed able to routinely evade. Reports were received that the so-called Tian Wang Hong Xiuquan himself (6-6-0) was seen in battle at Nanning on December 19 in combat with an Imperial cavalry banner sent to the province. Hong had been thought and reported slain in the 1851 revolt, a mistake by the authorities as it was rumored now that he had been “resurrected,” and even that he could not be permanently killed, absurd notions that nevertheless were offered by partisans to the credulous through China as proof of his religion. Whether Hong had survived the apocalypse of his congregation or it was an imposter, the authorities would have been wiser to have avoided any definite declaration as to his fate.

From the military point of view it appeared that the Taiping, however disruptive below the Yangtze, did not pose a serious threat to the country or the throne. Nonetheless, the national morale did not sustain the continuation of the insurrection and during this period declined into the mid-80s. To great surprise, an economic crisis originating in Piedmont affected China through its trading relations, confirming the risks of excessive engagement with foreign business. This worsened the problems created by the rebellion. To lighten the burden on the people in times of economic hardship, taxes were lowered considerably. With Xiao’s forces now under siege, it seemed opportune to work on the long-term goals for protection of the north by raising artillery in Manchuria and Kunlun, while a depot was established between Ulan Bator and Lanzhou at Yeke to provide a supply avenue directed against Irkutsk. Cheering news also arrived of Kazakh raiders running rampant in Central Asia, and that Russia was banning child labor. This news was widely reported as evidence of the indolence, indulgence and basic ignorance of the Russians – what sort of people would allow the laziness of children to starve the parents, and what parents would tolerate the mischief of idle youth? For that matter, what people would so enthusiastically settle and develop the vast forested snowlands of the north, except as slaves of their king driven thus for purposes of eventual invasion towards the rich and fertile lands of China?

Clearly these Russians were a people both ambitious and vulnerable to folly, different from the English, who had proved disturbingly shrewd and effective in commerce and conflict. The military history of the Russians had already been investigated – they had a long history of being overrun by their enemies, of being defeated in battle with heavy losses, and only prevailing through the poverty of their land to support or interest an invader, their cunning in concealment and evasion, their overwhelming numbers and brute stubbornness in pitched battle, and their reliance for their confidence in large numbers of cannon.

In China one could find a vast and intelligent population to support a large and brave army dedicated to the Empire and Emperor and commanders governed by deep and subtle strategic thinking that had been developed and refined over centuries of warfare and scholarly study. China had led the world in gunpowder weapons and construction of cannon, and could manufacture great numbers of such weapons and execute enormous logistical challenges involving many thousands of workers with great skill.

In addition, the Russians were far from their sources of troops and supplies, unable to bring more than a fraction of the numbers and equipment it had to bear. China was close at hand, which would provide a great inherent advantage. The only challenge was to field and supply the armies that would break Russian power in Siberia when they chose to start a war, or it came time for China to pre-empt Russian domination through colonization.

Thus resources were sent to establish a depot north of Lanzhou in Yeke as a relay point to the depot and fort at Ulan Bator, cannon were founded in the north, and troops assembled and dispatched to waiting positions in Manchuria and the northwest. A study of the calendar found late January a propitious time to announce the vassal status of Amur, and a time that coincided with expectations regarding the fall of Hengzhou and preparations for northern defense, as well as interposing a winter barrier against prompt Russian actions.

In October troops were sent to restore authority in Longing in Yunnan, leading to a small victory and rebel avoidance, after which more troops were sent and it was suggested a supply train be located for permanent station in Yunnan to support mountain expeditions, but that would require Mfg Goods to build the wagons, and they were needed for logistics in the north.

Foreign Encroachment –Kiangsu Raided! – Hengzhou Siege - Reorganization

January 1853 to Mid-March 1853

Diplomatic Affairs

Prussia contineud making lots of mutual passage agreements with German states, and placing a merchant in Morocco. Haishenwai was fully pacified, with more troops arriving France, as always, unrelentingly built influence in Cochin and Cambodia, but not yet in Annam. It seems likely they will not take the path of war for that province. Nor would the Empire wish the negative effects of involvement in Cambodia or Cochin – it is Annam, Tonkin and Luang Prabang whose loyalty must remain to the Celestial Empire.

At the beginning of the year, Prussia added to its extensive mutual passage campaign with the German states a promise of local support to Austria. As this was in addition to a defensive treaty in place, this pointed to expectation of an Italian war. The only effect relevant to China might be the French focusing their resources in Europe rather than suborning the chiefs of Cambodia and Cochin China, a process they were pursing with disturbing regularity. Cochin China was thought far away, its possession by China a negative for the country and thus left to the French. However, the French seemed acquisitive and were aggressively penetrating Cambodia as well – would it come to Annam, Luang Prabang, or even Tonkin being French objects? Given the limited number of trained diplomats available, achieving good relations and then a defensive alliance should be the objective. Among other things, it would allow pacification of natives by Chinese troops – a benefit to the locals, of course, and also providing increased Colonial Penetration that would allow the restoration of a vassal relationship.

Shortly thereafter, news came of a short term casus belli between Khiva and Russia. Russian aggression came as no surprise, but a Khivan war offered hope of distraction. It also indicated Russian troops heading closer to China.

In March came confirmation that the USA had forced a trade treaty from the Japanese. The Japanese having often been a stubborn and contentious vassal and tributary state, the ministries are confident there will be further difficulty in the Japan-US relationship.

Pacification

The battle against the rebels continued through the winter, facing a fresh set of uprisings in Hunan centered around Wujiang as well as the formation of a Taiping city in Anshun (West Hunan). Rumors attributed this rising to the man claiming to be the Devil Hong as he retreated from Nanning across the Guangxi border to Nanpang in Hunan. The fighting in Hunan and Guangxi went against the rebels in general, but despite losses they remained in formed bodies in the field, spreading misery from region to region. At the beginning of February Her Chyun, who had arrived at Hengzhou, was sent north to Changsha with Southwest Army and arrived in time to anticipate a large revolt. The rebels were routed and lost very heavily, but Her was criticized later and lost seniority for the level of loss he sustained. In February Wujiang also saw fierce fighting in repeated battles, the Devils being eliminated and the town secured – which raised the status of Southwestern Army Group sub-commander Jiang Zuo Zongtang.

In the east, a surprise wave of pillage from undetected Devil raiders in February and March spread across Kiangsu north of the Yangtze, on the coast and inland, coming from the important south bank regions of Shanghai, Suzhou and Nanking. They lacked local Taiping support, but were able to bypass the few garrisons south of the river and terrorize the north – pillaging 7 mostly populous regions. That there were no forces on hand to find the raiders was attributed to the great concentration of troops in the Yangtze Army against the Devil Xiao, but it was clear that a reorganization of responsibilities soon was needed to prevent recurrence of such outrages.

Loyalty Levels

The general loyalty level seen in China, and which may be the default, is 85% Chinese, 15% Rebel (local rebel affiliations vary). These rebels sometimes reach 25% without uprising, but percentages rise dramatically when they seize control. As described above, they are readily suppressed with strength, and may decide to retreat or make peace to avoid combat.

In Taiping-infested regions it is almost always the case that Chinese Loyalty declines to 35% and Taiping goes to 50%., with other “Rebel” remaining at 15%. In some places, probably rural or largely rural regions, the Chinese percentage falls to 10% and the Taiping rises accordingly to 75%, which may be linked to successful seizure of control one or more times by the Taiping. The exception currently is Nantong, rural, 85% Chinese and 15% Rebel Loyalty, but Taiping-controlled (easily since there is no town).

Small Levy units are cheap and available to raise in order to garrison everywhere there is any danger, but the regiments are too small to hold the countryside and may not hold out in town against a rebel force of any size, and the “Warband” size is too large and otherwise useful to be tied down in garrison except for important centers.

It is suspected that regaining control does not reduce Taiping Loyalty immediately, but bloody battles with local Devils do seem to have an effect that if sufficient may remove the Taiping sympathy and restore the usual 85%/15% division explained above.

Hengzhou Campaign

Although most activity was involved in suppressing the rebels through the regions, the focus of Imperial attention and power was the siege of Hengzhou and the elimination of the Devil Xiao along with his forces. It was unfortunate that several active and skillful offensive commanders had fallen under the Taiping influence, and preventing them from breaking out across the country was a critical concern. The siege was thus diligently maintained by an overwhelming force around the city in deeply dug trenches.

War is sometimes a matter of incidents that echo with consequences. On January 18 it appears that a detachment of Devils fled or stole toward Hengzhou through the defenses of Yuan Shuai Guanwen’s small army, which engaged it and resulted in an aggravated battle between the armies. The Imperial besiegers amounted to 150,000 men and 162 against 42,000 men and 30 cannons defending. However, with the portion of the Imperial forces engaged being limited at first, and lacking supplemental batteries (which were all with He at that time), the Imperial forces were roughly handled and lost 6816 men against 3485 Devils. On the 27th battle resumed for reasons unclear, Chinese losses of 18,000 and 24 cannon with many prisoners suffered as against only 5765 Rebels. National Morale, which had over the course of the rebellion slowly declined, sank another point. A further skirmish followed as Her Chyun’s forces had marched to the guns and joined Guanwen, whose blood was up and who pressed for a continued assault while the enemies cohesion was reduced and as many supplies must have been consumed. In addition, the calendar was sanguine for victory, as it was also auspicious for the declaration of a Vassal Status in Amur, and it was suggested that a decisive victory would revive national morale. It was true that the Elite Devils were at less than a third of their full power and intelligence showed other units were weakened, but many details were unclear.

Guanwen offered no objection to formal combination of the Yangtze and the small Southwestern Army Groups (the Southeastern Army to be sent to Changsha for reasons of command precedence) into a unitary siege command provided he could lead an assault. He Guiqing calculated and agreed to attack in February, though retaining official command of the Yangtze Army.

Despite this consent, He issued conflicting orders and the entire besieging force reverted to a defensive posture in early February. He explained that it would be a courtesy to await the arrival of officials from Peking before commencing the assault. This privately infuriated Guanwen, as it gave time to the enemy to recover cohesion. A plan of combined operation was re-confirmed and definite orders given for the attack mid-month when the official observers arrived, most desiring to be seen in visible proximity to battle but without facing actual danger. The assault began on snowy February 17 assault on a snowy day with substantial losses on both sides, some prisoners taken by the Devils, and a tactical stalemate. As planned, the attacks were repeated almost daily with anxious concern, and on the 21st the tide seemed to turn in Guanwen’s favor, as the day went well, the Chinese army lost no deserters or prisoners, and indeed 16 Taiping elements were destroyed with 7800 prisoners taken captive for later execution. Snow or rain, the attacks continued.

The Ten Battles of Hengzhou in late February resulted in Xiao’s forces being eroded down to a fraction of their former strength. Although at month-end they recovered some cohesion from what proved to be a large stockpile and a large collection of supply wagons, the besiegers had been having the advantage in each attack. The Six Battles of March finished off the Devils and many Supply Wagons were taken as useful trophies when the city was overrun. Even after replacement, the besieging armies amounted to only 100,000 men and 160 cannon at the end of the siege.

Although Xiao’s body had not been confirmed to have been found, both troops and generals of the Army Groups involved experienced a quiet exultation on the fall of the city and regarding this as a signal triumph foredooming all Taiping Devils to a prompt fiery damnation. Outside the army, however, the feeling was one of patient forebearance finally relieved – why and how did it take so long for the might of the Manchu to reduce a single rebel city? What weakness accounted for the delay, and might Taipings, other traitors and troublemakers elsewhere take heart from the long resistance? National Morale did not rise, but neither did it sink further below an alarming 78. He Guiqing’s reputation was not enhanced as he hoped it would be by the victory, but neither was that of Guanwen, who acquired from this battle and his campaign against the rebels a maliciously ill-rumored blood lust that spared neither friend nor foe.

It should be noted that the great Imperial advantage in cannon could not be brought to bear fully in snow and rain, and that the army was able to gain an advantage even though the rebels continued to fight like Devils. Assuming the leadership all perished, and none escaped for an opportunistic “resurrection” elsewhere, the rebels had lost their focus –their principal city and army at Hengzhou.

Military Reorganization

One important rationale for storming Hengzhou was that it would free the concentration of besiegers for other purposes, including frontier defense and a deterrent to Russian aggression. The First Grand Secretary for War and some other officials had travelled by sea and river to observe the continuing siege and were present to discuss the matter after the Fall of Xiao on March 7 (though he had not led the entire defence, allowing some of the other very active rebel generals to command, he had been seen in action in March – however, was not yet found, living or dead).

It was advanced by Peking, that a balanced definition of military districts would not burden some with threats and others include only quiet areas, so that each should be organized and prepared for responsibility as to certain threats and given other sectors which might expect to remain pacific. The relationship of CinC abilities to Theater limits was carefully considered – the relevant theaters being China, Northeast Asia, Eastern Siberia, Central Asia, and, beyond the border except to the west of Ulan Bator, Central Siberia.


Six Military Districts (and corresponding army groups)

(#1) North: Sichuan, Henan, Hebei, Shandong, E. Mongolia (Jehol), Manchuria, Amur, Korea (China & Northeast Asia & Eastern Siberia Theaters)–Mission vs Russia , capital defense and general strategic reserve
Yuan Shuai He Guiqing 3-2-2 (By the Book CinC Bonus-Disabled)
Shuai Zeng Guofan (3-4-2) Aggressive Strategist, +1 Str +1 Att +1 Qual if CinC; Admired: +25% fatigue recovery to stack he commands
Jiang Zhang YuLiang (3-2-2)

(#2) Kunlun: Shanxi, Gansu, Western Mongolia, and all areas to the west and north (China & Northeast Asia & Central Asia & Central Siberia & Eastern Siberia Theaters)–Mission: Russia defense and monitor vs. Irkutsk area; cover western colonies; banditry.
Yuan Shuai Xiang Rong (3-2-0) Vainglorious if active CiC: +1 Qual, +10 Coh to all land cmdrs; Admired: +25% stack fatigue recovery; Arrogant: -2 CmdP if in stack
Jiang Zuo Zongtang (3-3-2) Asst Logistician: +10% reduced supply if in stack; Diplomatic: +1 CmdP +1 CmdP Per ability above 1 if in command of stack; Scorched Earth when capturing cities or occupying enemy regions.


(#3) Yangtze (China Theater): Wuhan, Anhui, Kiangsu and Jiangxi–Mission: Local security of provinces along lower Yangtze
Shuai Xu Youren (4-1-2) (By the Book CinC Bonus-Disabled)
Jiang Sengge Rinchen (3-3-1) Hussar +20% Assault, +5% fire for Cav if in stack if clear, woods, hills, steppes or desert; Defiant -2CmdP to stack he is in (promotable)

(#4) Central (China Theater): Hunan and Guizhou: Mission: Local security of provinces on upper Yangtze
Shuai Liu Jian-Ling (4-1-1) (By the Book CinC Bonus-Disabled)
Jiang Zhang Guoliang (4-4-0) Feu Tactician: +20% Def fire , +1 Prot for attached Unit (whole stack) if active, +3% form square; Hotheaded: If cmdg, won’t orderretreat in first 2 turns.

(#5) Southeast (China Theater): Zhejiang, Fukien, Taiwan, Guangdong and Hainan and primary control of naval forces. Mission: Local security; coastal, naval, and overseas protection; troops transport; anti-piracy action.
Yuan Shuai Her Chyun (4-2-2)

(#6) Southwest (China Theater): Guangxi and Yunnan. Mission: Local security of southwest and border security.
Yuan Shuai Guanwen (4-5-2) CinC: Genius Str, Init and Frontage bonus, Level 3 Good Commander +1 CmdP per ability for stack he commands, Good Admin +15% fatigue recovery for stack he commands
Jiang Zhou Tengso (3-2-1)

Banners Return Home! - Taiping Bandits Escape - Stronger Army, Empty Treasury

Late March 1853 – May 1853:

Soldiers must have hope of return after victory when they think of their homes. As part of the reorganization, and as a symbol and demonstration of ascension over the Taiping insurrection, as many provincial banners as possible were returned for home service.

The newly raised banners, warbands, brigades and regiments were kept in the field and in garrison against the Taiping Devils or moved to the North or Kunlun Districts to prepare for war. On the border at Ulan Bator, the strength that the Russians might see was weak, and the numbers in Manchuria were greater, so the enemy would fear strength where there was weakness, and be unsuspecting where there was strength. They might mass greater strength against us in Manchuria rather than struggle across arid and empty Mongolia, but by massing suddenly at Irkutsk against them we would take the point they must maintain or lose all eastern Siberia.

The pernicious Taiping doctrines maintained a hold in many regions, but those at risk of revolt were fewer, and limited to Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guangxi provinces. The dispersed detachments were in most cases enough to contain the normal Devil bands of a few thousand peasants, but occasional greater outbreaks required a larger unit to respond, and with reorganization it took some time to organize these matters well.

The Devils also turned increasingly to stealth, banditry and pillage, causing great destruction and disturbance in Kiangsi on the coast where they pillaged several provinces and briefly held some towns while being pursued by regulars landed by ship (as they came across the Yangtze by stealth, no garrisons were ready and in place). Even a small party of skilled bandits can wreak great havoc in the countryside, and leave small towns a burned ruin when they are driven out. To station a garrison everywhere is popular but a great expense. In dealing with destructive bandits, however, to surround them completely with areas entirely in Imperial control is the means to destroy them rather than pursue them in a chase.

Engagements with rebels were almost always victories, but these successes did not serve to boost National Morale from the dismal 77 where it languished. A people expecting great victories will be unimpressed by small successes. In the notable incident of this period, in east Hunan a strong force of cavalry and other Devils took control of the rural region of Yongchun and entrenched with 48 pieces of fortress artillery they had unearthed from unknown stores. The local peasant militia attacked them but lost over 4000 casualties to the cannon and fled. This obviously required careful prosecution to avoid the stain of a defeat or the risk of the rebel force increasing its power. Zhang Guiliang and Guawen brought up their forces and destroyed the Taiping there. This was enough success to turn the National Morale up to 78.

As part of the new strategy of military districts, Yuan Shuai Her Chyun sent Peng Yulin’s Fleet with general orders to keep Chinese coasts clear of pirates. Unfortunately, the pirates did not seem to have much trouble in avoiding the Junk squadrons.

China’s diplomatic dilemmas continued. A state visit was arranged with Tonkin, and further plans laid to obtain an alliance to allow Chinese troops to conduct pacification operations that increase penetration enough to allow formal vassal status.

In Late May the costs of the troops and extending the depots had drained the treasury. It was important to do so, for full warehouses give the troops confidence and a brave spirit in the open field, while depleted stocks arouse dark thoughts and they fear even to stand behind secure walls. The military authorities expressed the view that both people and soldiers would be strengthened by an end to laxity. Peasants consume Rice, soldiers consume Silver, but neither should eat their fill. When people receive many goods, they seek enjoyment, strive against one another, and forget their masters; when goods are few and rewards are rare, the people heed their masters and attend to their tasks, and the discipline of the soldiers is the wealth of the state. Daily costs should be met with daily revenues, and yearly costs with yearly revenues. Thus the business tax was raised from 4% to 6% to discharge the routine maintenance of the army, while taxes on wealth were raised to prepare against the costs of current and future wars.

The Country Recovers - Taiping Attacks Successfully Crushed - Imperial Amur!

June – August 1853:

The Imperial limit for licenses for large rice-growing estates was now reached, and investment turned to the limited fisheries available to increase the quality of food production. Private Capital fluctuated up to over 2000 for lack of worthy enterprises and the competing demands for Mfg Goods from the military and all manner of projects. With the disturbances largely quelled, the population was recovering through the country, and towns were raised where bandits had recently ravaged as well as new settlements in the mountains beyond Yunnan and Shaanxi.

Experience has shown that Banners even if of less than full strength can deal effectively with rebel bands both small and large if all regions adjoining are held by garrisons of a bold attitude against any incursion. The strategy known as “ping pong” has proved effective to wear and destroy the Devils, for as they fight or flee from region to region they lose men and heart at every step until they are eliminated or captivated.

The center of unrest has been in Hunan in the Central District, but there have been serious depredations beyond it. A 500-man bandit force yet again seized and despoiled a town - Guangzin in Fukien - and burned it as they fled after being cut in half by the Her Chyun's cannon, but they were soon all made prisoner and put to trial. As the summer had advanced, the Taiping appear to be waning in the field. However, the risk of revolt is still present in many areas - at August-end the risk remains in 5 of 7 regions of Guangxi, 4 of 9 of Hunan, and 2 of 5 of Jiangxi (and the other regions in each province have substantial Taiping loyalty).

Road building in western Siberia was reported, the Russians busy as always, but their scratchings in the world wilderness remained over a thousand miles from Irkutsk. Irkutsk has tracks and many immigrants along with a collection point structure, but is otherwise an unimpressive and lonely town. The Russians, however, make no end of constructing military outposts - a structure unknown to Imperial policy and unable to withstand a proper army yet their small garrisons a clear annoyance in the event of conflict, and an expedient, were it available in China, that might serve to garrison regions instead of mobile combat troops.

In Africa, Spain asserted Colonial status over El Rif in Morocco – would the French or Prussians also present place a stake to contest it? It did not appear so, nor did it appear that Russia objected to our holding in Amur formally acceding to our administration, as they made no contest and were content to see our hegemony realized. It is likely they learned of our military forces.

In other diplomatic matters, China presented a secret proposal to Tonkin for a defensive alliance to protect Tonkin against foreign aggression. Tonkin declined with the proper forms and courtesies, evidencing ambiguous concerns that Tonkin’s neighbors were threatened. This avoided insult but foreclosed the possibility of conducting the pacification there necessary to increase penetration to a level at which they would be eligible for formal recognition as a vassal. Such fools and ingrates to the Emperor!

That the Emperor’s writ could be extended to his wayward children by force of arms is never in doubt, but the wisdom and honor of such a course is not shown. It was decided to promise Tonkin local support once again and take time to consider whether a more forward policy pursuing China’s historic rights regarding Hue and Tourane in Annam would be prudent. The two northernmost of the 4 regions of Annam not yet occupied by the French had some value in themselves, but chiefly served as the bulwark against French expansion and a symbol of Imperial prestige, which was no longer foremost in the minds of an admiring people.

A Commercial Agreement was proposed with the United States as they had custom with China, but although they had treated with the Japanese, they would not do so with China, making outrageous claims that the Empire is unjust to its subjects. Very well then - let orders for Steel for Shipbuilding go to England and France, which despite their barbaric diplomatic customs at least have some recognition of the status and respect due to a monarch.

Stuyvesant said:

Good job securing Amur. The Taiping menace seems reasonably well contained, so time to teach the Russians a lesson! They will have the technology, you have the numbers... I look forward to seeing how that plays out (and if it will be any different from the struggles with the Taiping).

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It is sort of a shame not to go to war when already all geared up and ready, and the longer China waits, the harder an opponent Russia in Siberia will be - this does militate in favor of working out a casus belli and a pre-emptive war. However, I'm not at all clear how things work in the event of success. Military occupation allows construction of structures, but to keep territory in a peace treaty requires Extended Claims for the strategic parts such as Irkutsk.

Does Russia's Protectorate or Colony Status just carry over to China if occupied or ceded in a treaty? Do the Russian structures convert, or decay/disappear due to Chinese raiding? I have not seen colonial possessions pop up as peace treaty options yet - must they be claimed, or have extended claims on, for this?

Or rather than Colony or Protectorate carrying over, is it converted into Vassal status, or does China need to slowly use merchants and pacification to build its own CP and play the Vassal card?

Very interesting questions.

Is it worthwhile to go to war to find out the answers, just in the spirit of "scientific inquiry"?

Taiping Contained – China Will Strengthen Itself

September 1853 – December 1853:

National Morale had been rising, to 80 in late August but fell to 79 in early September along with the end of the Piedmontese Panic in China and many other countries. Early September was quiet, but the Taiping then rose in Wujiang in Hunan Province and through much of Guangxi Province. Guanwen was fixed in place, which meant that the Imperial detachments were able to defeat the rebels and force their retreat with losses in most places, but the Devils were able to remain forces in being. With a stiffening of regulars and some horse these Devils had enough strength to keep the police levies behind town walls.

For some reason Denmark found it advisable to promise local support to Holstein, and Prussia sent missionaries to the Spanish Protectorate of the Marshall Islands – surely this tiny European state wished to engage in charitable work. Great Britain continued to focus its efforts on Australia, France on Indochina and Africa, the USA into the deep West, and the Russians unfortunately directed all efforts eastward towards China’s area of concern.

Japan, surprisingly, engaged in Telecommunications public works, which could only mean a telegraph – what need was there for such a device of only military use in so small a country and one that faced no enemy across a border? Indeed, China and Korea are Japan’s neighbors across the seas, and former targets of its wild aggression – so concern would be prudent.

In Tianjin, a new textile shop was started to supplement the one in Peking and double textiles production to 2 units. The clever foreign barbarians had ways of producing more products with fewer materials that would not be revealed, but in any case this was worthwhile and a representation of Imperial prestige and economic power. Merchants were also sent to Annam with some success in raising the penetration of Chinese culture in this historical vassal territory.

The economic crisis had prompted more intense study of the relationships among nations beyond the sphere around the Middle Kingdom and in particular the effects of events among the European barbarians upon the Empire. In late October 1853 the ministries presented memoranda expressing an understanding of the “Industrial Revolution”, an ominously-named and violent-sounding process occurring in the Western countries which explained the development of their military and industrial abilities – the result, it seemd, of some form of internal warfare among merchants and farmers but waged primarily with money rather than swords, muskets and cannon. It somehow created more factories and more productive farms and – it all made little sense to the practical mind. However, the learned scholars insisted there were useful matters that could be undertaken to adapt Western secrets for Chinese needs, giving advantages in military power, production of the farms, and the wealth of the state.

The “revolutionary” and subversive potential of adopting foreign ideas and methods was as clear as always, and was evidenced daily in reports of Taiping revolutionary activity. The cautious urged a return to firm rejection of foreign influence. The prudent noted that the efficacy of foreign military methods had shown China could not safely ignore them and risk weakness. The bold power stressed that the depth, intelligence, wisdom and judgment of Chinese civilization exceeded that of the clever but shallow and grasping barbarians, and this assured that China could benefit and strengthen itself with what was valuable and reject what was harmful. Ideas, methods, and products of the Westerners would be collected, organized, investigated, classified, and adopted or rejected under Imperial authority and only those determined to be useful and safe, without disruption to society or weakening Imperial authority, would be permitted to the public. The prudent were concerned that omissions might occur and novel risks might not be foreseen. The cautious were sure that the process could not be adequately controlled. The bold decision for China to strengthen itself was made.

These new ideas opened to China the designs for a wide range of industrial facilities (could it find means to build and use them?) and also percussion cap muskets of Western fashion (though no means to actually put these in use had yet revealed themselves). China’s limited supply of manufactures suitable for military and economic construction was an obvious problem, so the initial decision and debate was between establishing a Cannery to can preserved food (but would reduced the food supply, for which the public clamored) or a manufactory using Iron, Coal and Mechanical Parts. China could supply Iron and Coal sufficient for such a structure, and the Mechanical Parts were readily offered by foreign traders. The latter seemed the safer choice, and so it was decided – the location, however, was a matter of debate.

The highest productivity base was in Peking, Tianjin, and Canton, at 33%, with other cities such as Shanghai not far behind, yet a content population works more willingly and harder, and the safety of the manufactory against foreign invasion or domestic disturbance had to be considered. The regions of the country where industry would most easily and cheaply be constructed were Hebei and Manchuria in the north, but strategic advantages compelled the choice. Therefore the choice became Wuchang at the western end of Jiangxi province, a port, depot and substantial city with China’s primary iron mines and other resources – and a content population outside the range of current Taiping subversion. The garrison would be reinforced and construction would commence as soon as the materials were acquired – which included a great quantity of steel from world markets. Fortunately, Chinese Silk brought gold and European Steel cost only silver.

The country became calmer during these months, the Taiping forces consistently defeated at every turn by Imperial columns, harried in their retreats so much that one of these forces in desperation crossed from Nanning into Tonkin. Imperial troops had the right to enter Tonkin in any event, but the Governor General of Guangxi forestalled pursuit and instead sent a diplomatic note in the form appropriate to send to a tributary to Tonkin directing it to expel or destroy the Taiping devils. It was uncertain what course Tonkin would take, but, after waiting a few weeks for the rebel cohesion to erode, the Tonkinese army showed proper respect by annihilating the Taiping column in a jungle battle in November. Through December, the forces of Devils became fewer and smaller, as did the regions of revolt risk. Might peaceful prosperity lie ahead?

At year end, China stood 11th in Prestige at 1341, behind the "Great Powers" other than Sardinia-Piedmont at 714 (the ministers could never explain intelligibly why this small monarchy qualified as a “Great Power” to the Westerners, although what was of importance is that it had been established that China was not a mere Great Power in the limited Western sphere but a civilization in a class by itself). China was gaining a steady 4 Colonial points and stood as the 9th colonial power. In other respects, China was 11th overall, 7th in military, 11th diplomatically, 12th economically, and 15th socially. China was 225th in commerce (with no overseas commercial activity at all) and 100th in technology (so they claimed). In combat power, Russia alone exceeded double China’s power rating. China was the only major country that did not have 100 National Morale – it had by now recovered slightly to 80, but then it had faced bloody internal strife and the others had not.

World Situation Examined – New Industry – Devils Cower in Annam!

January 1854 – March 1854

Diplomatic Review: China’s relations were relatively neutral, except for its close alliance with Korea and Friendly terms with Annam and Tonkin. Wars among the powers of Europe present danger and opportunity to China, so it was important to note that Austria and Prussia had a very close 100 relationship and a Defensive Alliance. Prussia, however, was not well-loved by non-Germans: its relation with France was -15 and with Russia -9, and otherwise neutral, although it could boast a very long list of supply, passage and commercial treaties with minor German states. Great Britain was Friendly with the USA, France almost so, and Great Britain and France were at 12 with each other. Both were negative with Russia due to the mysterious Holy Land crisis involving the Ottomans in which the Russians had prevailed in some way, and on good terms with the Ottomans – a fact which could weigh in China’s favor. Prussia dislike Russia, but its close ally Austria was Friendly with Russia at 30, though neutral with the other powers. Assuming Russia would not attack Prussia, this meant Prussia and the Ottomans would be the only likely opponents of Russia in a European war, with the British or French possibly joining.

In diplomatic news of the first quarter, the roads in Irkutsk were reported to be upgraded in January. In February Portugal pledged support for Spain, but against no obvious threat. Who would want to hurt Spain? A crisis emerged in Late March, Sardinia-Piedmont demanding France remove several ministers hostile to SP.

Meanwhile, China in January reported widespread growth in population and a mysterious unknown prospecting team found Coal in Xsian (Shaanxi, in the north) and fields for more Tea in Shaozhou (Guangxi). Technology related to trade and maritime law developed. The Manufactory in Wuchang was started in Early February, at a premium cost due to location, then fisheries and tea were further developed.

A new officer, Jiang Wang Jung (3-2-1), was recruited in Peking and sent to the SW Army Group district. In late January there were no outbreaks – just a small worn band hiding in the mountains of South Yunnan. By Late February the countryside appeared clear of active rebels, although a hidden band of rebels had apparently moved west to Sonia in March and started to seize control from Annam (why the local control was not Tonkin was not clear, but the official responsible had not been attending to the affair).

France Threatens War: Piedmont Humiliated – Furniture Factory Ordered

April 1854 – June 1854

The French humiliated the Piedmontese in the crisis over the behavior of French ministers. The French started with Just Cause. They immediately Issued Ultimatum, reducing Crisis Control, increasing Crisis Intensity, and adding more of their prestige as well as some more Piedmontese prestige. It also increased greatly their dominance to maximum, and the crisis thus ended in round one with a French success. The Piedmontese played Pressure Supports, which siphoned off some Prestige and protected against loss of Just Cause, which they did not have, and reduced their Crisis Control. Is it the great magnitude of its rash folly that makes Sardinia-Piedmont a Great Power? This is, however, instructive – the French do not toy with their opponent or lure them forward into traps, but simply rely on threats of might and direct action.

This crisis caused the responsible Grand Secretary to commission a study of revolt risk in Europe to understand potential adversaries. This showed France was almost free of such risks, while the French-inhabited borderlands of Piedmont showed a mild revolt risk in favor of France that meant France would not hesitate to overrun Piedmont. Piedmont enjoyed a small chance of rebellion in its favor in most of Austrian-controlled Italy. Indeed, most of the Austrian Empire was covered by low-level revolt risk of one nationality or another, as were the Turkish possessions in the Balkans. Sweden faced a low-level risk in Norway. The largest scope of potential rebellion was in Russia from the Poles, Ukrainians, Finns, Ruthenians, Georgians, Khivans and other minorities. These risks were present even with Russia’s National Morale at 100which suggested they might be a major influence if National Morale fell in a long war.

It was disturbing to find that the French merchant fleet had been withdrawn from the North China market, leaving the British, Americans, and Spanish. This forced China to stockpile mechanical parts from the Americans. In a curious development, it was discovered that the productivity of the manufactory was so low (it produced 2 Mfg Goods) that it reported no use of Mechanical Parts, but as the domestic market had some demand for these the orders were continued at a low level. At worst, the 1 unit of craftsmen production would suffice for industrial needs.

At sea, the Navy had been waiting for action beyond the use of its transports. In April, Peng Yulin’s small fleet was sent to sweep the deep South China Seas from Tonkin to Taiwan for Annamite pirates, who it was concluded were lucky to make their escape although no reports were received that they were actually seen on the cruise. Paddle-wheel river transport had been developed, examined, and a wise decision was made: “Coal is dirty, heavy, and costly. Wind is clean, light, and free. Sails are to be preferred.” The riverine sailing fleet was raised to its maximum strength, the somewhat faster paddle wheelers were set aside as unnecessary and undesirable, and further Supply Wagons were also ordered as a concession to the army because it complained of scarce supplies.

China was quiet, but, in early May, with the indignity of receiving no response from Annam and the Devils still in control of Sonia (though no troops had been detected there), the SouthWest Army Group was ordered to Geiju to secure Supply Wagons from the local command and then march into Sonia in late June to restore order if Annam had not yet done so. This was widely suspected to be a first step to restoring order and Imperial authority throughout Annam, and a caution to Tonkin to show proper respect to the Dragon Throne.

National Morale started to slip, so taxes were lowered as it was now “peacetime” and Economic Sunrise had lowered Inflation by 1 point to 1%. China had none of the laws and decrees so frequently adopted or contested in Western states, and the energy devoted to debating such measures indeed attracted amusement in Peking after the Congress of the United States rejected the government proposal for Emitting State Bonds for what was reported to be the 22nd time.

Zhou Tengso became fixed in place in his march into Sonia in Late June and abandoned the invasion, as the days to penetrate this mountainous jungle region in the harsh rainy weather were too many to arrive in any strength due to loss of cohesion. The army was starting to take attrition hits as well. A more active commander might have fared better, but Guanwen was not prepared to go himself and determined the Taiping army, which was low on supplies and with units that were a shadow of their full strength, posed no current threat to Chinese territory: When the rats starve, they will die in their holes or come out to our traps.

Building a depot in the south to assist with future operations in Indochina was to be considered for the future, but the priority remained manufactures. Increasing foreign trade was no longer an important goal because the problem was finding use for private capital when the limited volume of manufactures constrained investment. It was best to put it to work satisfying the domestic market so the population could purchase more products and become more content and productive. Crafts and local farm production was an important source of variety in food, being the only source of meat, fruits, and cereals. The creation of preserved foods now added another item to the population’s diet, and it was eagerly taken up although there were complaints that it reduced the rice supply.

The key limitation on trade was that so few merchant fleets came, so only products from those few countries could be purchased. Wood had become available on the world market from the USA and was purchased for resale in the domestic market. The matter was studied and determined that it might usefully support a Furniture Shop, but that would make us dependent on US merchants. However, there was a great supply of Wood, no reason to think it would be reduced, and some local sources that could be developed at expense if stockpiles ran low. Thus it was decided to proceed. The strategic location of choice was Ganzhou in Fukien, a contented Level 6 inland city that was the largest between Nanchang and Canton and the principal station of South East Army Group. The high level of development, road transportation, and high popular contentment would increase productivity.

Although June passed quietly, National Morale declined to 77, a disturbing development that led to an immediate and large reduction in taxes since the absence of active conflict had greatly reduced the demands on the treasury, which was full of funds for the time being.

loki100 said:

this looks like you've ridden out the initial problems ... be interesting to see how PoN allows you to shift China from a potential to a real power

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But China already is a REAL power! Not like that tiny pretender with the big name Sardinia-Piedmont (seriously, what kind of a great power can't decide on a single name, and then picks one that is bigger than the country itself?) - is it just the railroads and ability to make wine from grapes that counts?

Stuyvesant said:

Wuchang sounds like a good spot for your manufactory. I like the deliberations behind choosing the right locations, as well as the thoughtful weighing of options, the pros and cons of industrializing.

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It is quite different from England or France, with a wealth of options, resources on the market, and lots of capital to invest and make mistakes. China has a lot of private capital, but limits on how that can be invested. The people could at least pave their own streets.

As I mentioned in the mods thread, pro-industrial policies commenced in the 1860s, not the 1850s, but historically the Taiping lasted to 1864 and here they look pretty well suppressed in 1854, so it starting now makes some sense. What the Taiping did not have were the great numbers I expected, but ferocity made up for a lot. I'm not sure when that Taiping loyalty will go away, so the economy will build up in unaffected provinces until then.

mariandavid said:

A very rhapsodic and interesting account - I look forward with interest to your inevitable expansion until the whole of civilisation owes tribute to the Centre of the World.

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Well, the whole of true civilisation already does . . . but I expect you are referring now to those foreign barbarian countries with the fancy ships, crude manners, and infernal machines? They have of course given ample insult as grounds for war, and even China's one-time tributaries are losing proper respect. Reparations will certainly serve as tribute, but I think we'll need to study Sun-Tzu closely in order to defeat them by stealth while they're not looking.