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Vote Vain

Reason: Posting invisible posts. I can't work like this.
 
That'd be the time Najs referred to earlier, Big CVIII.

So an inexperienced wolf, then. Hunted Night 6 and then outed relatively early for a Big. Now you're trying something new to not get scanned or lynched so early especially now that all these vets are returning. Who'd scan or lynch the guy posting the colorful and helpful vote counts? He must be a goodie, or else he wouldn't be putting so much effort into helping the village, right?
 
Official vote count, 14h 7min to deadline

Slinky - 3 - TheExecuter2, AVN, Cakravati
Cakravati - 3 - joebethegreat, trespoe, tamius23
AVN - 2 - Rendap, Boris ze Spider
Vainglory - 2 - OrangeYoshi, EUROO7
EUROO7 - 1 - Najs
walrus - 1 - Athalcor
joebethegreat - 1 - snoopdogg2

not voted - 17 - Slinky, Rysz, Rockingluke, drxav, Davisx3m, randakar, Sedracus, theFreeman, Vainglory, Kaetje, Paendrag, XenomorphII, humancalculator, Trinitrotoluen, Kingepyon, walrus, jacob-Lundgren


Missed one vote - 2 - Boris ze Spider, Slinky
 
I love your votecounts, johho. They are consistent, simple to understand and posted regularly.
 
VOTE Euro

Because of him voting Lem on day 2 when the outting might have been reasonably doubted, then on day 3 votes joeb, even though at that point Lem's guilt was pretty obvious.

My vote was meaningless, might as well move on to who I suspect.
 
So an inexperienced wolf, then. Hunted Night 6 and then outed relatively early for a Big. Now you're trying something new to not get scanned or lynched so early especially now that all these vets are returning. Who'd scan or lynch the guy posting the colorful and helpful vote counts? He must be a goodie, or else he wouldn't be putting so much effort into helping the village, right?

Firstly the "Wolf Tell" comment about Trespoe wasn't serious. I don't believe in "tells" as the idea that little statements give people away. The comment was facetious, although I can understand that not coming through in plain text.

If you read through CVIII you'll see I posted colored votecounts there. I've posted colored votecounts in most WW games I've played. This is how I usually play. I analyze things. I do that whether or not I'm a wolf. Look here, in a Stalingrad I won, in which I explain to the players the various permutations of ties and which are most likely to help the village. If the village had lynched two villagers earlier in the game it would have helped my pack, but I told them to save it for the right day, just as I would as a villager. From my recollection, this is the second game we've actually played together (Dalton Cousins doesn't count as I didn't cast a vote or order a hunt or anything) since my subbed-in rookie game CVII Hindenburg, consequently it appears you don't know what my style even is, to recognize when I'm changing it or adhering to it. You'd be better off arguing that as a wolf I'm indistinguishable from myself as a villager (that's the method I pursue as a wolf, rather than trying to be inconspicuous or hide in plain sight or something else) but then, that's no argument at all.
 
Unvote Vain

I can only assume he's posted some sort of defence, which is all I really wanted.
 
vote Althacor

The third candidate from the Elderman election with a serious amount of votes. Since the leaders were a cultist and villager so far, I wonder if the other pack did not try to push a contender of their own.
 
And we have the next baddie with sorcery powers.

I really think now that all baddies have sorcery powers.
And because johho888 makes in general balanced games, I also believe we have no sorcerers in this game.

It's starting to sound like a definite possibility, isn't it?

Explanation : He didn't vote yesterday, and I don't like it if people don't vote.
He also didn't vote several times for the "logical candidate".

Slinky normally stays very much under the radar. This game he's different. I'm not sure why. Either he has a role or something else changed.
Either way it's worth checking out.

Vote slinky

It also gives me the feeling that the three packs are in contact with each other now, and are cooperating ...
And to be honest, that doesn't bode well for the village ...

Why so sure about the three packs thing?
You suggested it to me as a possibility before, but three pack games are sort of rare.
Not to mention that there was a big discussion about the "half the game consists of baddies" kind of setup a few games back - basically, certain people don't believe that to be very balanced. At all.

Three packs?

:rofl:
(Great minds think alike it seems :p)

Oh, I relied on the post on the first page. This means die Rote pack hunted him twice.

Again with the "that comment bears an explanation" feeling. How can you be sure of when the Rote pack hunted?

jonti-h was die Gelbe, hunted Night 4. To me that implies die Rote hunts even, die Gelbe hunts odd.

So if this is a two pack game it was the Gelbe pack that hunted sbr.
The real question to me now is if Athalcor was sincerely mistaken about that or trying to set up some kind of cover for himself.
If the latter - well played, sir.

Three packs is the standard for games of this size.

1 pack - 1/4 of players baddies
2 packs - 1/3 of players baddies
3 packs - 1/2 of players baddies

Yes.

It's pretty common in games with this many people. I believe Johho has had one game with a setup like that previously. It's balanced because there are so many packs. They're fighting amongst themselves as much as they are fighting against the village.

With so small a population of games we really can't tell how balanced it is over the long term. The one or two three pack games I was in as a villager were pretty frustrating - the amount of baddies is just endless .. at some point it really starts to get to you. Especially if you're in the JL ;-)


OK, let's base the vote on the day 1 lynch votes. We have six not-yet-known people voting Executor. Among them there simply will be a baddie due to statistics. After reading their posts, I will start the day with:

Branigan's law. It's a starting point, I guess.
Day 1 and 4 really are the only days we can use. And maybe the day 0 elderman vote, though analysis there is even harder due to the whole 'would wolves support their packmates or would they try to keep their pack under the radar?' question.

Late supporter of Lemead in Elderman (like me - I know it does not look good); Day 1 late'ish vote on villager; Day 2 and 3 part of the Lemead voters; Day 4 extremely late voter on another villager (to break tie which failed) and the first to call Napoleon on his deed. I would like some information on this behavious and shall therefore

The elderman vote is a bit difficult. I don't think AVN would have voted a packmate there - he tends to be cautious, and voting his packmate into such a liable position .. I doubt he'd do that. Voting late is not a crime either - I don't think he's around except late at night, from what I've seen of him the past few days. (I've had PM discussions with him ever since I used my priestly powers trait on him, see. He only seems to get around to replying around 8-ish.)

So apart from having him vote villagers, the evidence on him doesn't really seem strong. A lot of people voted villagers in this game.
And since I scanned him using my priestly powers trait I'd really rather keep him around for a while longer.

Vote Cakravarti

Because I want to see him run up for real for once.

.. and the case against him is ..?
I know you can do better than this, Joeb. ;)

Correct in that Kinge, Taking a look at the day 0 votes we so far have 3 confirmed baddies and 3 (in my view, since I'm good) villagers. However, the 2 late votes on villagers day 1 and 4 can be seen as suspicious. Add the fast vote on Napoleon which could be an alias vote for someone who was fairly certain to be run up after the missed tie by Rocking on day 1 - Means that I really think we should check him out. Better candidates with stronger cases might surface over the coming hours and we'll see what happens.

Ah, I see where you're coming from now.
You think AVN was saving a packmate with those late votes, perhaps?
Maybe we should see who he may have been trying to save, then - tamius or slinky both fit that bill.
I don't think AVN is the type to blatantly save a packmate though. He really isn't a high risk player.


Vote joebwolf.

Who are you subbing for again?
And why are you voting Joeb?

Statistics show that wolves are always in the 11th slot.

:rofl:


Not necessarily. When I voted, Napoleon was in deep doo-doo. A packmate would have voted for him for the alibi because that train was leaving and there was no stopping it. Not to say I still couldn't, but be realistic. The best place to hide was with the ... 14? or so voters for him.

This man speaks truth.
That doesn't narrow it down very much though.

Nope, just living on borrowed time.

Seriously, I know I will be lynched because I didn't follow the Lemeard wagon the first day. (Seriously why would a priest contact AOK after only two scans? Did he not see the Babies game? Or the lite when AOK outed the seer in an IJL?) I did the second day because Lemeard killed three villagers.

second, I voted off on Napoleon. I considered it a newbie mistake and discounted it. I didn't know he was a baddie.

Those two mistakes mean it is only a matter of time before I hang. I know this because it happens to me a lot. I don't vote for the correct player and I get killed.

It's kinda sad though. If the village lets you live you tend to be hugely useful. One of the best analysers in the game for a long time, even.

SO here is how I can at least make my last few days interesting. I am just a plain villager with priestly powers. (which is why I speculated on the second day about the village being loaded with scanning powers). I was going to wait until late in the game to hit the button but am willing to do it now if the price is right. The person who can make me laugh in a PM can get the person of their choice scanned. Perhaps the seer would like to confirm a possible JL member? Or a wolf a cultist? I really don't care. My days in this game are numbered by my two bad votes. Come up with your best (or worst) joke and the scan is yours.

I'd really like you to post the result of that scan in the thread though. Even if you don't give us the name of whoever requested it, the village needs all the scans it can get.
Just make sure you post your result late in the day, just in case it finds you a cultist or sorcerer. :)

So an inexperienced wolf, then. Hunted Night 6 and then outed relatively early for a Big. Now you're trying something new to not get scanned or lynched so early especially now that all these vets are returning. Who'd scan or lynch the guy posting the colorful and helpful vote counts? He must be a goodie, or else he wouldn't be putting so much effort into helping the village, right?

I've used that strategy before. :)
I don't have time to make them the way I used to anymore though..

Unvote Vain

I can only assume he's posted some sort of defence, which is all I really wanted.

Yes, he has.
 
To Randy - I still believe that there are two packs, not three. To accept that, let's assume that the hunting pattern is regular. If that is true, we have no hunt on night 3 and formerly-blessed sbr dead on night 5. We have 30 remaining players. What is the chance that two different packs would hunt the same person almost simultaneously? Thus I think that there are two packs.
(btw, as a supporting theory I use that the color codes of the packs are red and yellow. These are 'normal' colors. Which color could be added as well? The only one I can think of is orange, which is already used for cultists. So, if Johho does not use some sort of perverse color palettes, I think, again, that there are two packs.)