Read above post. I either vote really early or really late or not at all.
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Read above post. I either vote really early or really late or not at all.
I am sorry that I am leaving my vote on walrus, as I lack the time to summarize AVN's posts to decide whether follow him or not and I am leaving for entire weekend soon so...this is just a protection from a 'missed one vote' stuff.
King, delete all your posts on this page, and Athalcor, delete all the quotes you have of his posts.
An observation, first: All wolves that have died so far have had sorcery powers. As far as I have noticed, Johho hasn’t put forward the affiliation of a dead cultist. In fact, the cultists also had sorcery powers. That is a lot of scanning. Of the yellow pack, there was a brutal, a plotting, and two regular wolves. So far in the red pack, there is a dead plotter and 2 plain wolves, so I would expect the last wolf to be brutal.
Day 4 & 6 analysis.
These are really the only two days of good analysis as we are looking at the red pack. Esemesas made an early exit Night 1, and these two days Slinky was put into contention. Post numbers in parentheses.
Day 4:
• After a few early votes, Vainglory votes Slinky (1192). Rendap has a vote on Slinky at this time, with a case. Vain basically makes an agreement “Rendap makes sense” and just goes along.
• Napoleon (yellow Pack) votes Slinky (1194) then Athalcor votes Kingepyon, saying it is bad to “wagon a single person” (1195)
• A few more votes later, Athalcor votes Lord D to make a 3-way tie with Rockingluke, Lord D, and Slinky. (1210)
• Najs votes Rock (1213), putting Rock into sole possession of first place.
• More voting, then Athalcor switches votes to Rock (1240) putting Rock up 6 votes to the nearest which is Slinky, Snoopdogg, Lord D, and Vainglory at 3 votes each. For someone who didn’t like wagoning a single player, he certainly did it. Johho vote count (1241) 5 hrs 24 min to go.
• Vain unvotes Slinky and votes Lord D (1243). I will come back to this at the end.
• More vote switching, then Euro moves. He switches from Rysz to Vain (1255), sbr votes Slinky (1256), Euro responds by going to Slinky (1257). Again, I will come back to this later.
• Snoop switches to Slinky (1258), Davis makes a throwaway (1259), Joeb switches to Cakravati, and OY voting Slinky, (1286) puts Slinky in the lead by a vote at Johho’s count (1288) with 2 hrs and change to go.
• Xeno immediately votes Slinky, then the next minute changes to Snoop (1289 & 1290)
• Euro responds by switching to Humancalculator who already voted himself (1293) drxav follows (1294). HC isn’t in any danger.
• Jacob votes Lord D (1295) making it 6 for Snoop, 5 each for Slinky and Lord D with less than 2 hours to go.
• Walrus says “Tie!” and votes Lord D (1298) into tie with Snoop
• Tamius votes Slinky (1299) to make a three-way
• Kaetje switches to Lord D (1312) and Slinky votes Snoop to make the tie 8 minutes before deadline (1318)
• AVN breaks the tie voting Lord D and Napoleon re-creates it at deadline by voting Snoop.
Most suspicious: Euro, walrus, Jacob, vain, athalcor, and xeno.
About the part with Vain and Euro (and the part I was to explain later): A few games back Euro had the brilliant idea to vote his packmate up and have the group make a tie near the end (there are usually enough villagers willing to do this) and then switch off “to break the tie, because ties are bad” near the deadline. It also gives an alibi since this usually puts a packmate into danger. I see that almost happening again with these two, Vain and Euro. Vain switched really early but Euro waited a while and then tried to get players to vote HC. Xeno did a vote on Slinky than immediately turned around and voted a competitor. Athalcor made a strange vote to Rock, putting him way up early when he said he hated doing it when he made his first vote (inconsistent?) Walrus and Jacob each made a tie-breaking vote separating Slinky from his competition.
Day 6 analysis:
• Johho’s vote count (1544) with 10 hours and change to go has Slinky at 5 votes and Cakravati at 3 votes. Zero for Tamius. Most of everything before this was done by dead players (TheExecuter v2 & randakar, for example)
• Vote switches to next vote count are Paendrag to Cak (1547), Randakar from Slinky to Joeb (1549), Sedracus on Slinky (1555), and Rendap to Slinky (1557). With just over 5 hours to go it is 6 votes Slinky, 4 votes Cakravati, and 0 votes Tamius.
• It heats up. TNT switches to Cak “to keep it close” (1566)
• Rysz votes Cak “Tie!” (1574)
• Drxav breaks the tie against Slinky, putting him into lead (1583).
• Tamius makes a few odd statements, so Rock places the first sticking vote onto Tam (1593) followed by Euro (1594).
• Tam switches to Slinky (1604), Euro unvotes Tam (1605), johho votecount (1607) has votes at 8 to 5 to 1 Slinky, Cakravati, Tam, with just over 3 hours to go..
• Massive vote swing onto Tamius as AVN, OY, Kaetje, and Euro switch to Tamius (last vote 1630).
• Sedracus switches from Slinky to Tam (1631)
• Najs switches to Slinky (1632)
• Drxav (1633) and Xeno (1634) switch to Tam.
• Johho vote count (1636) Tam leads Slinky and Cak 8 votes to their 6 & 5 respectively. With 1 hour and 31 minutes to go.
• Boris switches to Slinky (1637) then TNT switches to Slinky (1638) for a tie between Slinky and Tam.
• Randakar switches to Cak (1639) and then Freeman votes Tam (1640) putting Tam back into the lead.
• Slinky votes Cak (1641) and Vain votes Cak (1642) making it 9 votes to 8 to 7 for Tamius, Slinky, and Cakravati.
• Athalcor switches to Slinky (1645) to make a tie
• Walrus votes Tamius into the lead again (1646)
• Athalcor then announces deadline an hour early (1651) Fail. Did he really believe that? If he did, it might clear him if he thought he was hanging Slinky.
• OY switches from Tam to Cak (1672) makes it a tie between Tam and Slinky with 9 votes each with Cakravati at 8 votes.
• Tamius switches to himself (1693, wrong person unvoted and no one catches it), Freeman switches from Tam to Slinky (1694) *important vote* as Slinky is now tied with Tamius at 9 votes. Slinky never loses the lead and it is 22 minutes to go.
• 19 minutes to go Vain switches to Slinky from Cak (1696) This is the go-ahead vote.
• Xeno asks Tamius to unvote himself and place his vote where he means to vote. (1697) Why is this important? I cannot help but ask myself if he needs to vote snipe later.
• Tamius unvotes himself and votes Slinky (1698) 17 minutes to go. Slinky leads 11 votes to Tamius 8.
• Humancalculator joins the voting finally and votes Slinky (1700) with 16 minutes to go. I cannot feel that this was a complete sellout at this point. Slinky was going down.
• At the last minute Xeno switches to Davis from Tam (1721) for “not voting.” How odd.
Most suspicious: Euro, Walrus, Xeno, Humancalculator and drxav.
Humancalculator’s vote just seemed to be a sellout. There may not be much there. Drxav was an early switcher to Tam, along with Xeno. Again, may not be much there.
Walrus and Euro again seemed to be trying to save Slinky by voting a competitor into a tie or lead with Slinky. Xeno voted Tamius early, but his question to Tam at the end (post 1697) seemed important.
Walrus, Euro and Xeno appear on my baddie list both days. Vain and Athalcor placed votes on Slinky at crucial times this day, so are kinda redeemed from Day 4. Jacob had made a vote on Rysz early and never changed it, so this also makes it seem odd, as I remember him commenting on posts but he never changed his vote. Why didn’t he join the leaders in voting?
So in order of people I trust the least, Walrus, Euro and Xeno top the list. Drxav, Jacob, and Humancalculator also are potential suspects. Athalcor and Vain, while semi-cleared with votes Day 6, I would have questions about, especially Athalcor and his inconsistent Day 4 voting and his failure to understand the deadline Day 6. TheFreeman made an important vote Day 6 and seems semi-cleared. Najs also made a vote to put Slinky into contention Day 6 but also put Rockingluke into first place Day 4. Rendap seems solid. OY seemed to want to make a tie Day 6 when he switched from Tam to Cakravati, but helped put Slinky closer to the lead. Boris and TNT both voted Tamius early but later switched to Slinky near the tipping point. Joeb, Sedracus, Snoop v2, Rockingluke (run up Day 4), Cakravati (also run up Day 6) and Davis are also hard to read but haven’t made any bad moves yet. They have made some questionable voting errors but nothing egregious.
Since Walrus isn't a wolf, and AVN is asking to run up Davis and Xeno, I will
Vote Xeno
I admit I kinda like the Clarice votes.
Day 4 & 6 analysis.
These are really the only two days of good analysis as we are looking at the red pack. Esemesas made an early exit Night 1, and these two days Slinky was put into contention. Post numbers in parentheses.
Day 4:
• After a few early votes, Vainglory votes Slinky (1192). Rendap has a vote on Slinky at this time, with a case. Vain basically makes an agreement “Rendap makes sense” and just goes along.
• Napoleon (yellow Pack) votes Slinky (1194) then Athalcor votes Kingepyon, saying it is bad to “wagon a single person” (1195)
• A few more votes later, Athalcor votes Lord D to make a 3-way tie with Rockingluke, Lord D, and Slinky. (1210)
• Najs votes Rock (1213), putting Rock into sole possession of first place.
• More voting, then Athalcor switches votes to Rock (1240) putting Rock up 6 votes to the nearest which is Slinky, Snoopdogg, Lord D, and Vainglory at 3 votes each. For someone who didn’t like wagoning a single player, he certainly did it. Johho vote count (1241) 5 hrs 24 min to go.
• Vain unvotes Slinky and votes Lord D (1243). I will come back to this at the end.
• More vote switching, then Euro moves. He switches from Rysz to Vain (1255), sbr votes Slinky (1256), Euro responds by going to Slinky (1257). Again, I will come back to this later.
• Snoop switches to Slinky (1258), Davis makes a throwaway (1259), Joeb switches to Cakravati, and OY voting Slinky, (1286) puts Slinky in the lead by a vote at Johho’s count (1288) with 2 hrs and change to go.
• Xeno immediately votes Slinky, then the next minute changes to Snoop (1289 & 1290)
• Euro responds by switching to Humancalculator who already voted himself (1293) drxav follows (1294). HC isn’t in any danger.
• Jacob votes Lord D (1295) making it 6 for Snoop, 5 each for Slinky and Lord D with less than 2 hours to go.
• Walrus says “Tie!” and votes Lord D (1298) into tie with Snoop
• Tamius votes Slinky (1299) to make a three-way
• Kaetje switches to Lord D (1312) and Slinky votes Snoop to make the tie 8 minutes before deadline (1318)
• AVN breaks the tie voting Lord D and Napoleon re-creates it at deadline by voting Snoop.
Most suspicious: Euro, walrus, Jacob, vain, athalcor, and xeno.
About the part with Vain and Euro (and the part I was to explain later): A few games back Euro had the brilliant idea to vote his packmate up and have the group make a tie near the end (there are usually enough villagers willing to do this) and then switch off “to break the tie, because ties are bad” near the deadline. It also gives an alibi since this usually puts a packmate into danger. I see that almost happening again with these two, Vain and Euro. Vain switched really early but Euro waited a while and then tried to get players to vote HC. Xeno did a vote on Slinky than immediately turned around and voted a competitor. Athalcor made a strange vote to Rock, putting him way up early when he said he hated doing it when he made his first vote (inconsistent?) Walrus and Jacob each made a tie-breaking vote separating Slinky from his competition.
Day 6 analysis:
• Johho’s vote count (1544) with 10 hours and change to go has Slinky at 5 votes and Cakravati at 3 votes. Zero for Tamius. Most of everything before this was done by dead players (TheExecuter v2 & randakar, for example)
• Vote switches to next vote count are Paendrag to Cak (1547), Randakar from Slinky to Joeb (1549), Sedracus on Slinky (1555), and Rendap to Slinky (1557). With just over 5 hours to go it is 6 votes Slinky, 4 votes Cakravati, and 0 votes Tamius.
• It heats up. TNT switches to Cak “to keep it close” (1566)
• Rysz votes Cak “Tie!” (1574)
• Drxav breaks the tie against Slinky, putting him into lead (1583).
• Tamius makes a few odd statements, so Rock places the first sticking vote onto Tam (1593) followed by Euro (1594).
• Tam switches to Slinky (1604), Euro unvotes Tam (1605), johho votecount (1607) has votes at 8 to 5 to 1 Slinky, Cakravati, Tam, with just over 3 hours to go..
• Massive vote swing onto Tamius as AVN, OY, Kaetje, and Euro switch to Tamius (last vote 1630).
• Sedracus switches from Slinky to Tam (1631)
• Najs switches to Slinky (1632)
• Drxav (1633) and Xeno (1634) switch to Tam.
• Johho vote count (1636) Tam leads Slinky and Cak 8 votes to their 6 & 5 respectively. With 1 hour and 31 minutes to go.
• Boris switches to Slinky (1637) then TNT switches to Slinky (1638) for a tie between Slinky and Tam.
• Randakar switches to Cak (1639) and then Freeman votes Tam (1640) putting Tam back into the lead.
• Slinky votes Cak (1641) and Vain votes Cak (1642) making it 9 votes to 8 to 7 for Tamius, Slinky, and Cakravati.
• Athalcor switches to Slinky (1645) to make a tie
• Walrus votes Tamius into the lead again (1646)
• Athalcor then announces deadline an hour early (1651) Fail. Did he really believe that? If he did, it might clear him if he thought he was hanging Slinky.
• OY switches from Tam to Cak (1672) makes it a tie between Tam and Slinky with 9 votes each with Cakravati at 8 votes.
• Tamius switches to himself (1693, wrong person unvoted and no one catches it), Freeman switches from Tam to Slinky (1694) *important vote* as Slinky is now tied with Tamius at 9 votes. Slinky never loses the lead and it is 22 minutes to go.
• 19 minutes to go Vain switches to Slinky from Cak (1696) This is the go-ahead vote.
• Xeno asks Tamius to unvote himself and place his vote where he means to vote. (1697) Why is this important? I cannot help but ask myself if he needs to vote snipe later.
• Tamius unvotes himself and votes Slinky (1698) 17 minutes to go. Slinky leads 11 votes to Tamius 8.
• Humancalculator joins the voting finally and votes Slinky (1700) with 16 minutes to go. I cannot feel that this was a complete sellout at this point. Slinky was going down.
• At the last minute Xeno switches to Davis from Tam (1721) for “not voting.” How odd.
Most suspicious: Euro, Walrus, Xeno, Humancalculator and drxav.
Humancalculator’s vote just seemed to be a sellout. There may not be much there. Drxav was an early switcher to Tam, along with Xeno. Again, may not be much there.
Walrus and Euro again seemed to be trying to save Slinky by voting a competitor into a tie or lead with Slinky. Xeno voted Tamius early, but his question to Tam at the end (post 1697) seemed important.
Walrus, Euro and Xeno appear on my baddie list both days. Vain and Athalcor placed votes on Slinky at crucial times this day, so are kinda redeemed from Day 4. Jacob had made a vote on Rysz early and never changed it, so this also makes it seem odd, as I remember him commenting on posts but he never changed his vote. Why didn’t he join the leaders in voting?
So in order of people I trust the least, Walrus, Euro and Xeno top the list. Drxav, Jacob, and Humancalculator also are potential suspects. Athalcor and Vain, while semi-cleared with votes Day 6, I would have questions about, especially Athalcor and his inconsistent Day 4 voting and his failure to understand the deadline Day 6. TheFreeman made an important vote Day 6 and seems semi-cleared. Najs also made a vote to put Slinky into contention Day 6 but also put Rockingluke into first place Day 4. Rendap seems solid. OY seemed to want to make a tie Day 6 when he switched from Tam to Cakravati, but helped put Slinky closer to the lead. Boris and TNT both voted Tamius early but later switched to Slinky near the tipping point. Joeb, Sedracus, Snoop v2, Rockingluke (run up Day 4), Cakravati (also run up Day 6) and Davis are also hard to read but haven’t made any bad moves yet. They have made some questionable voting errors but nothing egregious.
Since Walrus isn't a wolf, and AVN is asking to run up Davis and Xeno, I will
Vote Xeno
I admit I kinda like the Clarice votes.
