Werewolf CXII: Refugees

[AVN]

Combining Branigan's Law with "they voted for Lemeard" gives us Snoopdogg and AVN as candidates (I agree with not running people up twice in quick succession for what it's worth).

Before people really start thinking that's a good idea to run me up, I like to explain my votes on day 0 and 1.

As a villager, I really dislike ties, especially in the early stages of the game, because they are bad for the village.
So I will do my utmost to prevent them. So when there was a 3-way tie a few minutes before deadline on day 1 I decided to break it.

In general I think it's a bad thing to win the day 0 vote in johho's games. The winner of that day normally dies very soon.
That day I had to decide who I considered to be more useful for the village and I decided that AOK would be more useful.
Therefore Lemeard received my kiss of death.

I hope the above explains my votes sufficiently.

I agree that we shouldn't run up people randomly though. And I think I have a good candidate.
On day 0 Lord_D started to campaign for himself and he received support from Adamus.
Then I did send a PM to Lord_D in which I told him that it wasn't a good idea to win the day 0 vote.
Lord_D listened and stopped campaigning, but more importantly shortly after our PM exchange Adamus removed his vote from Lord_D.
And we know now that Adamus was a cultist.

I believe Adamus was informed by Lord_D. And therefore I strongly believe that Lord_D is a baddie.

Therefore Vote Lord_D

[Cakravarti]

Vote AVN

As a placeholder until some makes a decent case for someone else.

[Paendrag]

Vote AVN

As a placeholder until some makes a decent case for someone else.

Actually I think AVN did the most convincing case yet..

VOTE CAKRAVARTI

[Cakravarti]

Actually I think AVN did the most convincing case yet..

VOTE CAKRAVARTI

Its not really that convincing seeing as how its uncorroborated. Id atleast like to see what Lord D has to say before consigning him to death.

[Kingepyon]

Surely we're past random voting at this stage? Yes the analysis is poor for Days 2-3 because of Lemeard, but we can still learn things.

For example Drxav often has success with "Branigan's Law of Suspects" which, if I recall it right, holds that at least 40% of voters on a Day 1 lynch victim are wolves. It sounds stupid, but I've seen it work a few times.

Another line of thought is that Esemesas was Lemeard's leading supporter for Elderman, and Lemeard turned out to be a cultist, and Esemesas a wolf. Consequently it is likely that the Day 0 voters for Lemeard include a number of wolves.

We've also had great success pursuing throwaway voters, who refuse to participate in lynchings. Kingepyon did throw his vote away on Day 1, if you want to rationalize running him up after the event, although sometimes Day 1 throwaways are given a mulligan because it's Day 1.

We could check out Trespoe and Bagricula, who facilitated Capt. Kiwi's unfortunate death. Slinky and EUROO7 also refused to vote for Lemeard yesterday.

We can also use various combinations of these:

Combining Branigan's Law with "they voted for Lemeard" gives us Snoopdogg and AVN as candidates (I agree with not running people up twice in quick succession for what it's worth).

I just think we can do better than random voting at this point.

Slinky and EUROO7 also voted for Lemeard the first day to get him Elderman.

Also what was Rockingluke trying to with the snipe anyways? Kill snoop and executor and save tamius? Unless he can provide a reasonable explanation for switching that late, I'm going to vote him. If he does give a reason for the late switch, I'll switch to Slinky, because both of them are pretty suspicious at the moment.

Vote Rockingluke

[Kingepyon]

Actually I think AVN did the most convincing case yet..

VOTE CAKRAVARTI

If AVN has the most convincing case, why vote for cakravarti?

[johho888]

Official vote count, 9h 1min to deadline

Slinky - 3 - Rendap, Vainglory, Napoleon XIX
Rockingluke - 3 - joebethegreat, Trinitrotoluen, Kingepyon
snoopdogg - 2 - Sedracus, jonti-h
Lord_D - 2 - trespoe, AVN
Rysz - 1 - EUROO7
Vainglory - 1 - snoopdogg
Kingepyon - 1 - Athalcor
AVN - 1 - Cakravati
Cakravati - 1 - Paendrag

not voted - lots - drxav, Lord_D, OrangeYoshi, TheExecuter2, jacob-Lundgren, Davisx3m, Najs, XenomorphII, walrus, Rockingluke, randakar, Kaetje, Rysz, tamius23, Boris ze Spider, humancalculator, theFreeman, sbr, Slinky, Bagricula

Requests sub - 1 - Bagricula

EDIT: Fixed the Lord_D votes

[AVN]

Official vote count, 9h 1min to deadline

Slinky - 3 - Rendap, Vainglory, Napoleon XIX
Rockingluke - 3 - joebethegreat, Trinitrotoluen, Kingepyon
snoopdogg - 2 - Sedracus, jonti-h
Rysz - 1 - EUROO7
Vainglory - 1 - snoopdogg
Lord_D - 1 - trespoe
Kingepyon - 1 - Athalcor
Lord_D - 1 - AVN
AVN - 1 - Cakravati
Cakravati - 1 - Paendrag

not voted - lots - drxav, Lord_D, OrangeYoshi, TheExecuter2, jacob-Lundgren, Davisx3m, Najs, XenomorphII, walrus, Rockingluke, randakar, Kaetje, Rysz, tamius23, Boris ze Spider, humancalculator, theFreeman, sbr, Slinky, Bagricula

Requests sub - 1 - Bagricula

Lord_D is mentioned twice in your list.
It's IMHO easier to understand if you give him two votes (trespoe's and mine) and mention him only once.

[Najs]

Lord_D is mentioned twice in your list.
It's IMHO easier to understand if you give him two votes (trespoe's and mine) and mention him only once.

The GM is trying to sow misinformation! Get him!

Before people really start thinking that's a good idea to run me up, I like to explain my votes on day 0 and 1.

As a villager, I really dislike ties, especially in the early stages of the game, because they are bad for the village.
So I will do my utmost to prevent them. So when there was a 3-way tie a few minutes before deadline on day 1 I decided to break it.

In general I think it's a bad thing to win the day 0 vote in johho's games. The winner of that day normally dies very soon.
That day I had to decide who I considered to be more useful for the village and I decided that AOK would be more useful.
Therefore Lemeard received my kiss of death.

I hope the above explains my votes sufficiently.

I agree that we shouldn't run up people randomly though. And I think I have a good candidate.
On day 0 Lord_D started to campaign for himself and he received support from Adamus.
Then I did send a PM to Lord_D in which I told him that it wasn't a good idea to win the day 0 vote.
Lord_D listened and stopped campaigning, but more importantly shortly after our PM exchange Adamus removed his vote from Lord_D.
And we know now that Adamus was a cultist.

I believe Adamus was informed by Lord_D. And therefore I strongly believe that Lord_D is a baddie.

Therefore Vote Lord_D

You don't think that might be due to Adamus realizing that voting someone for elderman when they aren't even voting themselves is a waste?

[Rockingluke]

VOTE Lord_D

Placeholder, have no time for now.

[AVN]

The GM is trying to sow misinformation! Get him!



You don't think that might be due to Adamus realizing that voting someone for elderman when they aren't even voting themselves is a waste?

Lord_D did vote for himself that day. And he was (in the end) not in danger of winning that vote, so he didn't change his own vote.

[Najs]

Lord_D did vote for himself that day. And he was (in the end) not in danger of winning that vote, so he didn't change his own vote.

Oh, I see. I assumed that "stopped campaigning" also meant that he changed his vote. My mistake.

[Najs]

I believe enough time has passed now that it's safe to vote the would-be tie-sniper Rockingluke, even though he is a rookie.

Vote Rockingluke

[theFreeman]

Vote Snoopedog

phlder

[johho888]

Official vote count, 7h 29min to deadline

Rockingluke - 4 - joebethegreat, Trinitrotoluen, Kingepyon, Najs
Slinky - 3 - Rendap, Vainglory, Napoleon XIX
snoopdogg - 3 - Sedracus, jonti-h, theFreeman
Lord_D - 3 - trespoe, AVN, Rockingluke
Rysz - 1 - EUROO7
Vainglory - 1 - snoopdogg
Kingepyon - 1 - Athalcor
AVN - 1 - Cakravati
Cakravati - 1 - Paendrag

not voted - lots - drxav, Lord_D, OrangeYoshi, TheExecuter2, jacob-Lundgren, Davisx3m, XenomorphII, walrus, randakar, Kaetje, Rysz, tamius23, Boris ze Spider, humancalculator, sbr, Slinky, Bagricula

Requests sub - 1 - Bagricula

[randakar]

@Vainglory - Thank you. It really is nice to have some decent analysers in the new batch of people.

Actually I think AVN did the most convincing case yet..

VOTE CAKRAVARTI

Yes. I discussed that theory with him yesterday. I am glad he decided to come forward and just go public with it.
Vote Lord_D

More importantly - I used my priestly powers trait on AVN a few days ago. It came back "villager". So AVN is NOT a cultist or sorcerer.
Could still be a wolf, mind. But as far as I'm concerned he's a bad lynch.

Slinky and EUROO7 also voted for Lemeard the first day to get him Elderman.

Also what was Rockingluke trying to with the snipe anyways? Kill snoop and executor and save tamius? Unless he can provide a reasonable explanation for switching that late, I'm going to vote him. If he does give a reason for the late switch, I'll switch to Slinky, because both of them are pretty suspicious at the moment.

I have no idea, but it's definitely worth looking at.

*) It saves me a lot of work, for starters..

[Kaetje]

Looking at the people being run up at the moment I'm good with lynching either Rockingluke, Lord_D, Rysz or Cakravati*. I won't be online in the evening and I'm not interested in bandwagons this early so it'll be Cakravarti (still have to eat Sushi with my bro tonight).

Vote Cakravarti


*cookie for the person who knows why I picked those 4.

[jonti-h]

*cookie for the person who knows why I picked those 4.

They're your packmates?

[Vainglory]

Where's Joeb when we need him to shout at people for grossly misusing the term "bandwagon"? I don't care how broad your definition is, 4 votes with three players on 3 votes is about as far from a wagon as you'll get.

Surely Kaetje isn't from so far back in the stone age he that he doesn't understand why we need 2-3 frontrunners?

[Slinky]

There seems to be some confusion about why I didn't vote lemeard. Like rendap says, I just didn't believe the outing. AOK. 11 had been gunning for lemeard since the start. Every other post of his was some critique against lemeard. Then he conveniently get's to out him. He begins by telling us how right he was all along. By pointing to his feud I immediately thought the outing was a part of it. He then outs Lemeard, but adds a whole bunch of analysis. Who does that in an outing? An outing of itself should be enough. AOK. 11 was apparently afraid he wouldn't be believed. Why would he be unless it wasn't a real outing to begin with.

Then we have the target of the outing, lemeard. I would not think a baddie would be so foolish as going after the elderman position, since it get's everyones attention and ensures he will be scanned early. I just didn't believe he was a baddie. It would not have been logical. After the outing Lemeard was going to be lynched anyway, so I just decided not to vote him. I wasn't so sure of myself that I would actually go so far as to defend him against those accusations. If you are wrong that sort of thing can get you dead fast.

Then lemeard turns out to kill a bunch of goodies, perhaps I should have voted him then , but instead I voted joebthegreat because he was being a big sourpuss. He kept complaining and couldn't leave it at one post. My vote was an in game reminder that some of us just play to have fun and not to bash the GM. Though bashing the GM can be tremendous fun when done right