The Qing will likely go. It's just ridiculous...a Manchu monarchy would just be such a hard pill for the Han Chinese to swallow after its struggles. All I can see happening realistically is this: A division of China (under many different forms of government suited to it's respective races) or a united republic. Both will have imperial concessions to an extent which would probably be much less than what's currently in Kaiserreich (I'd say control of the productive coastal provinces...legation cities)...or none at all, provided there will be a choice.
If you really want to stretch it as far as you can, a
Han Empire is probably the best you can do with China. But the fact is that the Han MUST be satisfied if anything will work in a united China...even if every other group disagrees. The Han are the key to control in China...the majority, thus the most powerful.