This chain of events allows a province to change its trade good from either "grain" or "wool" to "cloth". This upgrade is desirable because "cloth" prices are naturally higher than either "grain" or "wool" — much more so. While in vanilla the ratio between "wool" and "cloth" prices is about 1:10, it's closer to being 1:3 in the mod. All in all, "wool" provinces aren't as desirable as "cloth", Mediterranean agricultural products ("wine") or Eastern agricultural products ("tea") but they aren't "worthless" either; which is the case in vanilla.
The intention is that of providing a dynamic economic context in which provinces thrive and decline. To achieve that purpose both directions need to be contemplated: "upgrades" to "cloth" (the manufactured, high margin product) and "downgrades" to "wool" (raw material) or "grain" (basic agricultural resource). This article discusses the "upgrade" course.
The process is articulated in two simple steps:
firstly, it is decided whether a country, as a whole, is a good candidate for a "burgeoning textile industry" — by checking some macroscopic aspects such as inflation, technology standing, production efficiency, economic sliders, etc.
secondly, there is a provincial level check, determining whether support for the "burgeoning textile industry" has been properly incentivised
The first step — the "macroscopic" check
The second step — the local check
The event providing the opportunity to change a province's trade good to cloth is precluded by any
- belonging to a nomad, new world or sub saharan technolgy group
- technological backwardness, compared to one's technology group
- raw material shortages (absence of adequate wool production or trade to meet current cloth production)
- higher war exhaustion than three
The "burgeoning textile industry" can otherwise materialise provided one owns at least one "grain" or "wool" province, that isn't affected by this same development. Its "mean time to happen" though is strikingly high — having 50% chances of firing within four centuries (the "grand campaign's" duration). This wait is though affected by a long series of items outlining one's economic context and performance. The random factor is therefore minimised, rewarding players who meet these arbitrary criterias:
The most determining factors are therefore policy sliders — "free subjects", "free trade" and "decentralisation" all contribute to rouse the economic situation. Technology is as important, whereas "cloth" trading is a close second.
We assume that the "free subject" slider mirrors the social vertical mobility
and elasticity of a country's workforce. That is, how easily and quickly individuals can move up or down the social ladder and participate to productive activities — from being peasants to owning land and capital for instance. Vertical mobility is a prime instigator of social change, which assists economic change. It is widely argued that vertical mobility promotes free entreprise
and economic progress, as well as a cultural and biological renewal of the upper classes — those which traditionally finance and manage prominent industries.
Liberal thinkers argue that "Free Trade" lowers import prices, decreasing production costs for businesses and consumers. A common argument is that firms having to adapt to foreign competition without the help of mercantilist protections (tariffs, import ratios, etc.) are ones that are more likely to develop innovative productive and administrative processes leading to a competitive advantage.
With adequate rhetoric one could argue that "serfdom" and "mercantilism" are equally good promoters of a "burgeoning textile industry". It so happens though that the overwhelming majority of countries starts as "mercantilist" and "serfdom" oriented. So, in game terms, the promotion of a non existent textile industry relies on moving policy sliders away from the starting position — a policy "change" engendering trade goods "changes". All in all, I find the historical and economical arguments, as well as balance concerns, to fully justify adopting these two sliders ends in the "burgeoning textile industry".
We consider that the import of textile products, or trading "cloth", represents the acquisition of industrial know-how and commercial distribution insight, through contact with foreign merchants.
"Decentralisation" is interpreted here as "economic decentralisation" rather than "political". Hindering the accumulation of wealth, capital and population in one area favours the blooming of peripheral regions. We are indeed assuming that the textile industry be supported by private
A "bankrupty" entails the failure of one's fiscal policy — which generally triggers a fall in purchasing power, spelling doom for transformation industries such as the "textile" one, most often relying on imports.
The event's description, for those who wish to improve it, reads:
Cloth supply and demand
Once the player is warned about possible opportunities in the textile market a province is selected to host the transformation process. You will be asked whether you want to ignore or subsidise the textile industry revival.
On selecting the second option a modifier named "Textile Industry Subventions" lasting 35 years, will be applied on the province: local taxes and census taxes will both be reduced by 25%. These tax exemptions represent the economic stimulus the state is asked to provide. Since the production's transition can actually fail, the significant tax loss requires one to duly consider forfeiting the possibility of a trade good change.
At this stage, the player will have 35 years to improve the local infrastructure and productive means to successfuly complete the transition. If a "Trade Good Change" event won't trigger during the modifier's duration, the transition will be considered a failure. The event has 50% chances of happening within 50 years — so it's unlikely to fire during the "subvention" phase unless some measures are undertaken. These items increase the event's likelihood:
Among these the most determining factors are population levels (which determine production units), tolerance, the presence of a textile manufactory and other buildings. As stated above anything increasing the province's income will facilitate the rise of new industries.
It is assumed that an urban setup breathes new life into local firms due to the presence of agricultural surplus and local demand — hence the strong influence of population levels. The cap's set at 100,00 since there aren't additional effects on income past that level.
It goes without saying but enemy occupation rules out completely the trade good change event. Rivals have an opportunity to increase revolt risk, blockade, loot or occupy the province to hinder positive economic changes.
In (contemporary) economic terms, supply and demand have a tendency to meet in what is dubbed an "equilibrium" point, determined by goods price and quantity on the market. We try to reflect this principle in the mod, with the few tools at our disposal. In game terms, the higher the supply of a trade good, the lower the price. Imagine a scenario where thirty provinces have "upgraded" to cloth: supply would increase noticeably, while prices would be significantly lower, therefore diminishing the appeal of "cloth".
We keep track of how many provinces turn to "cloth", and how many "cloth" provinces turn to "wool" or "grain". When there are more than ten additional "cloth" provinces in the world, compared to the start — the "upgrade" mechanism is halted, while it is simply slowed down the more provinces start to produce "cloth". This is a way of assuring that a) cloth supply doesn't exceed the boundaries that more or less determine the current price range, and b) cloth remains an attractive good.